Name: 伊朗戰爭對俄羅斯及烏克蘭無人機戰有何影響？ | DW 新聞 (What does the Iran war mean for Russia – and Ukraine drone warfare? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-09T17:10:00.000Z
Duration: 14 min 41 s

The effects of the war in Iran are being felt far beyond the Middle east.

戰爭對伊朗的影響，早已遠播到中東以外的地方。

And I'm sure many of you have noticed this in the past week.

我相信過去一週，你們很多人都已經注意到了。

But there are also questions about what this conflict means for Russia and its war in Ukraine.

但也有人質疑，這場衝突對俄羅斯及其在烏克蘭的戰爭意味著什麼。

And that's something I'm going to unpack in a moment with my guest Ivana Stradna.

這也是我稍後要和我的來賓 Ivana Stradna 一起深入探討的。

But before we do that, it's interesting to point out that years of war means Ukraine also has valuable know how that it can share, like how to fight Iranian made shahed drones that Russia's used on the battlefield to devastating effect.

但在我們開始之前，值得一提的是，多年的戰爭也讓烏克蘭累積了寶貴的知識，可以分享，例如如何對抗俄羅斯在戰場上用於造成毀滅性後果的伊朗製 Shahed 無人機。

Iran has fired off thousands of these drones since the US and Israel started attacking it over a week ago.

自從美國和以色列一週多前開始攻擊伊朗以來，伊朗已經發射了數千架這種無人機。

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has offered to share that knowledge and will send experts to advise the US and Middle Eastern countries on how to repel Iranian drone attacks.

烏克蘭總統 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 表示願意分享這項知識，並將派遣專家，就如何擊退伊朗的無人機攻擊，向美國和中東國家提供建議。

He was speaking in Kyiv on Sunday with the new Dutch Prime Minister Rob Yetin.

他週日在基輔與荷蘭新任首相 Rob Yetin 交談時這麼說。

Let's hear some of what Zelenskyy had to say.

讓我們來聽聽 Zelenskyy 的一些談話內容。

As you all know, countries in the Middle east and the United States have asked Ukraine for support.

正如大家所知，中東國家和美國都曾請求烏克蘭提供支援。

We will provide them with the necessary means, first and foremost, expertise and the experience of our military in defending against shahed drones and cruise missile.

我們會提供他們必要的資源，最重要的是，提供我們的軍隊在防禦 Shahed 無人機和巡弋飛彈方面的專業知識和經驗。

It's great to welcome Ivana Stradna, now a research fellow at the foundation for Defence of Democracy's Russia program in Washington.

很高興歡迎 Ivana Stradna，她現在是華盛頓國防民主基金會俄羅斯計畫的研究員。

Now Ukraine is going to help countries in the Middle east defend themselves against Iranian drones.

現在烏克蘭將協助中東國家防禦伊朗無人機。

I think this is extremely important because Zelensky understands perfectly that Russia and China and Iran are working together and why it matters.

我認為這非常重要，因為澤倫斯基非常清楚俄羅斯、中國和伊朗正在合作，以及這為什麼重要。

It matters because he experienced that axis of aggressors, how they have been impacting Ukraine.

這很重要，因為他親身經歷過這個侵略者軸心，以及他們如何影響烏克蘭。

To go back to the story of drones, Ukraine has an incredible knowledge how such a cheap weapons can actually have very impactful impact.

回到無人機的故事，烏克蘭對於這種廉價武器如何能產生巨大影響，擁有驚人的知識。

And he understands how Shahid drones actually were used also in Ukraine.

他知道 Shahed 無人機實際上也在烏克蘭被使用過。

And now he's willing to use that expertise and to help the United States and America's allies to defend themselves.

現在他願意運用這份專業知識，並協助美國和美國盟友保護自己。

But to zoom out, we also have to understand why it matters.

不過從更宏觀的角度來看，我們也得了解為什麼這很重要。

Number one, drones are extremely cheap and to intercept them like right now think about like Patriot system and stuff like that.

第一點，無人機非常便宜，而且要攔截它們，想想像愛國者系統這類東西。

So that's precisely what Ukraine has developed quite cheap ways of defending itself from such weapons.

所以這正是烏克蘭發展出非常便宜的防禦方式來對抗這類武器的原因。

And the second thing which is strategic, I think it's extremely important for Ukraine to use that also as a leverage when it comes to negotiations.

第二點，這具有戰略意義，我認為烏克蘭在談判時將這點作為籌碼也非常重要。

What we have observed over the past few months.

這是我們過去幾個月觀察到的。

Something that worried me very much about Russian attacks on critical infrastructure and Putin's use of ballistic missiles.

俄羅斯攻擊關鍵基礎設施以及普丁使用彈道飛彈，這件事讓我非常擔心。

And really Ukraine needs more defense on that point.

烏克蘭在這方面確實需要更多防禦。

So the argument that the west had either we don't have capacity to help you, which is exactly why Russia has been working very hard to ramp up that.

所以西方說我們沒有能力幫助你，這正是俄羅斯一直在努力加強的原因。

So Zelensky can also now use his knowledge, but

所以澤倫斯基現在也能運用他的知識，但

also his expertise, use that as a leverage with the United States to, to maybe ask American President to help with all the weapons that Ukraine actually needs.

還有他的專業，用這些作為跟美國談判的籌碼，或許可以請美國總統協助提供烏克蘭真正需要的武器。

Yeah, let's talk a little bit more about that leverage in specifics.

沒錯，我們來談談這個籌碼具體有哪些。

As we know Western allies have been reluct reluctant to supply Ukraine with the kinds of long range weapons like the Tomahawk and the Taurus, weapons that could theoretically strike where Russia produces its own military drones, for example.

我們知道，西方盟友一直不願意提供烏克蘭像戰斧和金牛座這類遠程武器，這些武器理論上可以打擊俄羅斯生產軍用無人機的地方。

Could this change if Zelensky uses his leverage properly?

如果澤倫斯基妥善運用他的籌碼，情況會改變嗎？

So there are two reasons why the west has been reluctant to supply Ukraine with all the weapons that it needs to put Russia on the defensive.

西方之所以不願提供烏克蘭所有需要的武器來讓俄羅斯處於守勢，有兩個原因。

Number one is that actually the west is suffering with its own defense, you know, capabilities right now.

第一個是，西方國家目前自己的國防能力其實也面臨困難。

And the second thing is the fears of escalation.

And the second argument is absolutely ridiculous because it's Russia that started this war and all those fears about Putin's threat, nuclear threat.

而第二個論點實在太荒謬了，因為是俄羅斯挑起了這場戰爭，所有關於普丁威脅、核武威脅的擔憂。

So you know, if you provide Ukraine with long range missiles, we are going to, you know, put our nukes on alert, whatever.

所以你知道，如果你們提供烏克蘭遠程飛彈，我們就會，你知道，讓我們的核武進入戒備狀態，之類的。

This is a psychological weapon that Russia has been using to make sure that the west does not support Ukraine and provide Ukraine with the weapons to put Russia on the defensive.

這其實是俄羅斯用來確保西方國家不支援烏克蘭、不提供武器讓俄羅斯陷入守勢的一種心理戰。

But the first argument is also extremely important.

但第一個論點其實也非常重要。

Look, this is, we are entering the fifth year of Russia's full scale invasion and I think it's really pastime also for, for the west to put its act together and to ramp up their also defense sector and capabilities.

各位，我們已經進入俄羅斯全面入侵的第五年了，我認為現在也是西方國家該振作起來、加強自身國防部門和能力的時機了。

Because make no mistake, this war is not going to end anytime soon.

因為別搞錯了，這場戰爭不會很快結束。

Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are working together and they are more than happy to expand their capabilities.

俄羅斯、中國、伊朗和北韓正在合作，而且他們非常樂意擴展自己的能力。

So the sooner we understand how a new generation warfare operates, the better.

所以我們越快理解新一代戰事是如何運作的，就越好。

What do you mean by a new generation of warfare?

你說的新一代戰事是什麼意思？

So the Russian military operates a little bit differently from the Western military.

俄羅斯軍隊的運作方式跟西方軍隊有點不一樣。

And a lot of people in the west for a Russian new generation of warfare, they talk about hybrid war.

在西方，很多人談到俄羅斯的新一代戰事時，會提到混合戰爭。

So basically Russia has a different way of understanding war.

所以基本上，俄羅斯對戰爭有不同的理解方式。

So I'll just give you a very concrete example.

所以我就舉一個很實際的例子給大家聽。

What happened recently in Poland when it comes to drone incursion, what happened recently with cutting, see cable across the west, different assassination and sabotage activities.

像是最近在波蘭發生的無人機入侵事件，還有像是切斷海底電纜，以及各種暗殺和破壞活動。

這就是戰爭的第一種、第一階段。

Just below the threshold of war that Russia is using to test, to test the West.

也就是俄羅斯正在測試西方世界的、低於戰爭門檻的行動。

My concern, we have to think about, you know, always the Red Team and how Russia might escalate below the threshold of war somewhere, you know, in the Baltic states, for example, in the future, where Putin might actually challenge NATO and to make sure the west and NATO will not respond.

我擔心的是，我們必須隨時想到「紅隊」（指敵方）以及俄羅斯未來可能會在戰爭門檻之下，例如在波羅的海國家，進行升級行動，普丁可能會挑戰北約，而且要確保西方和北約不會有所回應。

And that's precisely why we need to think about providing Ukraine right now in 2026, all the weapons that Ukraine needs.

這也是為什麼我們現在，在2026年，需要提供烏克蘭所有需要的武器。

So Putin is not emboldened to continue because that was in the past testing.

這樣普丁就不會因為過去的測試而更加大膽。

And make no mistake, he understands that NATO is very polarized, especially now with what's happening in Iran.

而且別懷疑，他明白北約現在非常兩極化，尤其是在伊朗發生這些事情之後。

He would be more than happy to expand our Western attention and to see what's going to stick.

他會非常樂意擴大我們西方的注意力，看看什麼會奏效。

Which brings me to a very important point.

這讓我想到一個非常重要的點。

Oftentimes, people in the west like to think their adversaries are thinking like them and process information.

西方人常常喜歡認為他們的對手跟他們一樣思考，一樣處理資訊。

Putin, his ultimate goal is truly to rewrite a global order.

普丁的終極目標，真的是要改寫全球秩序。

And what he likes to talk about, put forward a multipolar world.

他喜歡談論、提出一個多極化的世界。

你要如何在認知上創造出這種情況？

He does not need to send tanks and jets to all any on the Western capitals, whether in Berlin, whether in London, filling the blank Paris or Washington, D.C.

他不需要派遣坦克和戰機到任何西方首都，無論是柏林、倫敦、巴黎或華盛頓特區。

All he really has to do is to push forward with his new generation of warfare.

他真正需要做的，就是推進他的新一代戰爭。

Ivana, let's, let's move on to the war that's happening in Iran now.

Ivana，我們來談談現在伊朗正在發生的戰爭。

And we've seen Russia benefit, I guess, from the spike in oil prices following this outbreak of conflict.

我猜，俄羅斯從這場衝突爆發後油價飆漲中獲益了。

Tell us, though, what are the possible risks to the Kremlin from this conflict?

不過，請告訴我們，這個衝突對克里姆林宮可能有哪些風險？

Like, for example, if the regime in Tehran falls.

像是，假設德黑蘭的政權垮臺了。

to answer this question, we have to understand that for Russia, this is a strategic partnership.

並且回答這個問題，我們必須瞭解，對俄羅斯來說，這是一段戰略夥伴關係。

But also Putin deeply cares about his own war in Ukraine, and

但普丁也非常在意他在烏克蘭的戰爭，

that's why he did not offer any concrete support.

這也是為什麼他沒有提供任何具體的支持。

For example, there are numerous reports about Russia providing intelligence to Iran, which absolutely doesn't surprise me.

舉例來說，有很多報導指出俄羅斯提供情報給伊朗，這一點我一點都不意外。

But make no mistake, Putin is not willing to provide any meaningful support to Iran.

但別搞錯了，普丁並不願意提供任何實質性的支持給伊朗。

Now, what are, you know, also the costs for Putin?

那麼，普丁又付出了哪些代價呢？

Number one thing is I think it's really too early to talk about how Russia will or might benefit from oil prices.

第一點是，我認為現在談論俄羅斯將如何或可能從油價中獲益，還太早了。

And you're right, because on one side, Russia's center of gravity is energy.

你說得對，因為一方面，俄羅斯的重心是能源。

And a lot of people in the west have been hoping that precisely because of sanctions, that Russia will suffer economically and that will not fuel a Russian military machine.

西方很多人都希望，正因為有制裁，俄羅斯會在經濟上遭受損失，這樣就不會助長俄羅斯的軍事機器。

I think it's too early to talk about those benefits.

我認為現在談論那些好處還太早了。

You're right about Russian fears related to regime change because Putin doesn't know who might go next.

你說得對，俄羅斯確實擔心政權更迭，因為普丁不知道下一個會是誰。

And the third thing is reputation also matters because with friends like Putin, who needs enemies?

第三點是聲譽也很重要，因為有像普丁這樣的朋友，誰還需要敵人呢？

Because how Putin behaved towards Syria, what Putin did with Maduro in Venezuela, this is not the first time that Putin is throwing Iran under the bus.

因為普丁在敘利亞的行為，以及他在委內瑞拉對馬杜羅所做的一切，這不是普丁第一次把伊朗推下水。

What did Putin do when there was a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

普丁在亞美尼亞和亞塞拜然戰爭時做了什麼？

It also shows that Putin has its own weaknesses, and that's extremely important to emphasize.

這也顯示出普丁有他自己的弱點，這一點極其重要，必須強調。

Again, we should also not be overly optimistic about this because Russia still has the leverage when it comes to Iran, and

再來，我們也不應該對此過度樂觀，因為俄羅斯在伊朗方面仍握有籌碼，

we are going to see how China is going to respond.

Because that axis of aggressors, Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have been working together.

因為這個侵略者軸心，俄羅斯、中國、伊朗和北韓，一直以來都在合作。

And my other concern is that Russia tried to position itself as a pillar of stability, offering to mediate.

我另一個擔心的點是，俄羅斯試圖將自己定位為穩定的支柱，並主動提出協調。

And that's really quite ironic to ask Putin to mediate this conflict.

而請普丁來協調這場衝突，這實在是太諷刺了。

Because it's like asking an arsonist to help with fire.

因為這就像是請一個縱火犯來幫忙滅火一樣。

And that's something that the west should not fall for when it comes to negotiations with Ukraine, because that's something that we should be tracking.

這也是西方在與烏克蘭談判時，不應該上當的事情，因為這是我們應該要關注的。