Name: 百萬富翁們都在為滯脹做準備？原因大公開！ (Why All Millionaires Are Preparing for a Stagflation)
Uploaded: 2026-03-08T18:05:21.000Z
Duration: 19 min 58 s

現在進行式

The US Economy is preparing to get into a stagflation.

形容詞比較級

And a stagflation is way worse than a recession.

過去簡單式

Last time the US economy went into a stagflation, it lasted for more than 10 years.

上一次美國經濟進入滯脹，持續了十多年。

And a stagflation usually crushes the economy.

Because this is the situation where the economy is not growing, which means that your wages are stagnant, but

因為這是經濟沒有成長的狀況，意味著你的薪資停滯不前，但是

So a 10 years of stagflation is instantly turns into a complete catastrophe for any economy.

所以十年的滯脹對任何經濟體來說，都會瞬間變成一場徹底的災難。

Now this is usually how the economy works.

現在，這通常是經濟運作的方式。

And that is a healthy sign of a healthy economy.

這是一個健康經濟的健康跡象。

Because when prices are rising, that means that people have jobs, people have paychecks, they are spending money.

因為當價格上漲時，代表大家都有工作、有薪水可以領，大家都在花錢。

And because they are spending money, prices are growing.

而因為大家都在花錢，所以價格也在上漲。

And because prices are growing, the GDP is growing.

So overall you want to see some kind of an increase in prices.

所以整體來說，我們都會希望看到價格有所上漲。

But if that increase in prices is actually being pushed by a real demand, the real problem comes is that when prices are rising but the economy is not growing, can something like that happen?

但如果價格上漲是因為真實的需求在推動，那真正的問題是，當價格在漲，但經濟卻沒有成長，這樣的情況會發生嗎？

Well, it has already happened historically in the United States when you see around and the price of everything is continuously keeping rising.

嗯，這在美國的歷史上已經發生過了，當你看到周遭的一切價格都在不斷地上漲。

And why your income is not growing because the overall economy is not growing.

而你的收入之所以沒有增加，是因為整體經濟沒有成長。

Or maybe prices are simply rising way faster than the real size of the economy.

又或者，價格上漲的速度遠遠快過經濟的實際規模。

Last time the United States experienced something like that was during 1960s and 1970s.

美國上一次遇到這種情況，是在1960年代和1970年代。

So the United States in 1971 abandons the gold standard and the US dollar instantly loses a lot of its value.

所以美國在1971年放棄了金本位，美元的價值瞬間就掉了好多。

Suddenly the price of gold shoots to the roof.

Now if you are back in 1970s, do you think that your employer called you and told you listen, just because the prices have risen, we decided that we are going to grow your paycheck.

那如果你回到1970年代，你覺得你的僱主會打電話給你，跟你說「聽著，因為價格上漲了，我們決定要調高你的薪水」嗎？

wages didn't rise much price because prices did not rise as a result of a healthy demand.

薪資並沒有跟著大漲，因為價格上漲並不是因為健康的經濟需求。

But prices have risen because there has been a lot of devaluation of the dollar.

而是因為美元大幅貶值，導致價格上漲。

But abandoning the gold standard simply was one of many reasons why we had a stagflation.

但是放棄金本位只是造成滯脹的原因之一。

回到1970年代，當時有石油禁運。

So there was a crisis in the Middle East.

And Middle Eastern countries, who were the largest oil exporters in the world, decided that we're not going to sell oil to anybody because is going to support Israel in the war that was happening in Middle East.

而身為世界最大石油出口國的中東國家，決定我們不賣石油給任何人，因為他們要支持正在中東發生的戰爭中的以色列。

Suddenly oil prices shot to the roof, which means that the cost of everything was driven higher.

突然間，油價飆漲，這意味著所有東西的成本都提高了。

So when you go to the grocery store and you buy something, that something is in your grocery store because it was moved from one place into another.

所以當你去雜貨店買東西時，你買到的東西之所以會在店裡，是因為它從一個地方被運送到另一個地方。

It might have originated from outside the United States.

So there is always a transportation cost.

When oil prices rise, the cost of transportation instantly rises, which means that there is inflation.

油價上漲時，運輸成本也會立刻上漲，這意味著會產生通貨膨脹。

Now the question is, did prices rise because there has been a healthy demand or prices rose just because the cost of delivering that good to your house has just risen?

現在的問題是，價格上漲是因為有健康的經濟需求，還是價格上漲只是因為將商品送到你家的運送成本變高了？

The United States has been engaged in a very destructive war in Vietnam.

美國曾經在越南進行了一場非常破壞性的戰爭。

That war has been so huge that the United States had to deplete a lot of its resources.

那場戰爭非常龐大，美國不得不耗盡大量資源。

You are spending so much time and you are producing a weapon.

你花費了大量的時間，而且你正在製造武器。

Let's say that you have produced a missile.

Now this missile goes into a war and it explodes.

現在這枚飛彈投入戰爭並爆炸了。

現在你的生產力發生了什麼事？

So basically, we are working so hard manufacturing stuff that are going to be devastated anyways.

所以基本上，我們花了很多力氣製造的東西，最後都會被摧毀。

So we're basically working super hard, but

所以我們基本上很努力地工作，但是

we're not growing the economy because we're basically destroying what we have built.

我們沒有讓經濟成長，因為我們基本上是在摧毀我們已經建立的東西。

And the war in Vietnam has lasted for about 15 years, which is why it caused an increase in prices, but

而越戰持續了大概15年，這就是為什麼它導致價格上漲，但是

the real size of the economy did not grow.

Now, a deficit is inflationary by itself.

現在，赤字本身就會導致通貨膨脹。

A deficit means that you are basically borrowing money because you cannot possibly afford it.

赤字意味著你基本上是在借錢，因為你根本負擔不起。

When you cannot possibly afford your lifestyle and you get yourself a paycheck or you go, you get yourself an auto loan or a mortgage to buy a house, it is not necessarily inflationary because you are not the one who is actually creating the dollars.

當你根本負擔不起你的生活方式，然後你拿到薪水，或是你去辦汽車貸款或房貸買房子，這不一定會造成通貨膨脹，因為你不是那個真正創造美元的人。

Now put yourself in the shoes of the US Government and you have basically ability to create money.

現在，你扮演美國政府的角色，而你基本上有創造貨幣的能力。

So you cannot possibly borrow dollars from somebody.

It is you who is the source of the dollar.

So when the US Government actually borrows money, the Federal Reserve usually prints money out of nothing.

所以當美國政府真的在借錢時，聯準會通常會憑空印鈔票。

So because the government is running a deficit, the supply of dollars is rising the economy.

所以因為政府在赤字，美元的供應量正在進入經濟體。

So when too many dollars are chasing the exact same amount of goods in the economy, prices are rising.

所以當太多美元追逐經濟體裡相同數量的商品時，價格就會上漲。

Do you think prices have risen because the real size of the economy is growing, because we became more productive, or because there are simply too many dollars in the economy?

你認為價格上漲是因為經濟的實際規模正在成長、我們變得更有生產力，還是因為經濟裡有太多美元？

So a huge deficit always causes a lot of inflation, which leads the economy to a stagflation.

所以巨大的赤字總是會造成嚴重的通貨膨脹，這會讓經濟走向滯脹。

And finally, there has been a lot of competition from Germany and Japan.

最後，德國和日本的競爭也非常激烈。

So if you just zoom out and you look at the US Economy from a further perspective, you can see that from 1945 to 1970, the United States was this country that was basically manufacturing everything.

所以如果我們拉遠一點，從更廣泛的角度來看美國經濟，你會發現從 1945 年到 1970 年，美國基本上是製造所有東西的國家。

So if you wanted the most advanced cars, you will buy them from the US if you wanted the most advanced machinery, you will buy them from the US Because Europe was distracted as a result of World War II, Japan was devastated.

所以如果你想要最先進的汽車，你會從美國買；如果你想要最先進的機械，你會從美國買。因為歐洲因為第二次世界大戰而分心，日本則遭受重創。

事實上，日本還遭受了兩顆原子彈。

But starting from 1960s, Germany and Japan emerged as the countries that could compete with the United States when it comes to manufacturing.

但從 1960 年代開始，德國和日本崛起成為在製造業方面能與美國競爭的國家。

So suddenly jobs started getting out of the United States because manufacturing jobs that were going back to other nations such as Japan and Germany.

所以工作機會突然開始離開美國，因為製造業的工作機會迴流到日本和德國等國家。

In fact, Japan was so fast at reconstructing its economy and competing with the United States that Japan literally won over the US Market.

事實上，日本重建經濟並與美國競爭的速度非常快，以至於日本 literalmente 贏得了美國市場。

And the US Car manufacturers could not even compete with Japan.

而美國汽車製造商甚至無法與日本競爭。

So the US Economy basically stopped growing at the rate that it had before Japan was rising.

所以美國經濟的成長速度基本上停滯了，不如以往，因為日本正在崛起。

And these reasons basically caused prices to rise dramatically and there was a huge slowdown in the US economy.

而這些原因基本上導致價格大幅上漲，美國經濟也出現了嚴重的放緩。

And now let's come back to 2026 and you will see that the exact same story is playing back.

好了，我們回到2026年，你會發現exactly一樣的故事又在重演了。

Oil prices have gone from less than $50 to almost a hundred dollars.

油價從不到50美元飆升到將近100美元。

And this is just one week of a war in Iran.

而這還只是伊朗戰爭一週造成的影響。

This price could easily go to 100%, maybe 200%.

這個價格很容易就會漲到100%，甚至200%。

So now you have to ask yourself a question.

所以現在你必須問自己一個問題。

How will oil prices keep impacting the global inflation?

油價會如何持續影響全球的通膨？

Especially the inflation in the U.S. so going back to 1970s, there has been an oil shock.

特別是美國的通膨，回到1970年代，當時就發生了石油衝擊。

So it led to higher oil prices which led to higher inflation.

所以這導致了油價上漲，進而導致了通膨上漲。

And this time it is not going to be any different.

Now you could make the argument that the United States is self sufficient when it comes to oil.

現在你可能會說，美國在石油方面是自給自足的。

Because if you just look at the list of the largest oil producers in the world, you'll see the United States at the top of the list.

因為如果你看看全球最大的石油生產國名單，你會發現美國名列前茅。

But the oil market is just one joint market.

So if global oil prices rise, the US Oil prices are going to rise.

所以如果全球油價上漲，美國的油價也會跟著上漲。

So suddenly you're going to have a lot of inflation.

所以突然間，你會看到嚴重的通膨。

Now the second thing is that now there is a war in Middle east which is the main reason why there is an increase in oil prices.

現在第二件事是，中東現在有戰爭，這也是油價上漲的主要原因。

Oil prices are usually driven by futures.

So just because there is a war, it doesn't mean that suddenly everybody's massively buying oil because it is impossible to buy that much oil.

所以戰爭不代表大家會突然大量購買石油，因為不可能買那麼多油。

Because oil is a very difficult commodity.

因為石油是一種非常難處理的商品。

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百萬富翁們都在為滯脹做準備？原因大公開！ (Why All Millionaires Are Preparing for a Stagflation)

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