Name: 油價因擔憂伊朗戰爭恐持續而持續震盪！| BBC News (Oil prices still volatile over fears Iran war may drag on | BBC News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-05T21:53:36.000Z
Duration: 9 min 38 s

Well, let's get the latest business news now.

好，我們來看看最新的商業新聞。

轉承詞

Sally, oil prices have gone up again and that's because people are worried about what's happening in the Middle East.

莎莉，油價又上漲了，這是因為大家擔心**中東**發生的事情。

We're getting reports that there's a tanker on fire near the Strait of Hormuz today.

我們收到報告說，今天在**荷姆茲海峽**附近有**油輪**起火。

我們會為你提供這方面的詳細資訊。

We're getting more news on day six of this conflict with oil prices spiking again today after they stabilized on Wednesday.

這場**衝突**進入第六天，我們收到更多消息，**油價**在**星期三****穩定**後，今天又**飆升**了。

This on renewed fears about longer term disruption to global supply of energy.

這讓大家**再度擔憂****全球供應**的**能源**可能出現**長期中斷**。

So the focus for, for global markets and business is of course, that narrow stretch of water at the end of the Arabian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz.

所以，**全球市場**和**商業**的焦點，當然就是**阿拉伯灣**盡頭那片**狹窄水域**，也就是**荷姆茲海峽**。

On Wednesday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they have complete control over the vital waterway, the shipping route for 20% of the world's oil.

**星期三**，**伊朗革命衛隊**表示他們對這條**重要水道**，也就是全球20%石油的**航運路線**，擁有**完全控制**權。

Well, a short time ago, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards claimed that they had attacked a US Oil tanker in the Persian Gulf some hundreds of kilometers north of the strait.

不久前，伊朗革命衛隊聲稱他們攻擊了波斯灣的一艘美國油輪，距離海峽以北數百公里。

And an attack that we have yet to verify.

這是一起我們尚未證實的攻擊。

Earlier this week, President Trump promised to use navy ships to protect those going through that strait and provide insurance even.

本週稍早，川普總統承諾將動用海軍艦艇保護進出海峽的船隻，甚至提供保險。

This is the time lapse of traffic levels in the strait.

這是海峽交通流量的時間推移圖。

Now this is just before the war began on Saturday.

現在，這是戰爭在星期六開始前的畫面。

To give you a sense of how busy it was, around 80 ships would pass through daily.

為了讓大家瞭解當時有多繁忙，每天大約有80艘船會通過。

That traffic has all but halted with just a couple of ships passing through on Wednesday.

到了星期三，這些交通幾乎停滯，只有幾艘船通過。

So some 329 oil vessels are now stuck in the Gulf according to investment bank JP Morgan.

根據投資銀行摩根大通的數據，目前約有329艘油輪滯留在海灣。

With Iraq slashing crude production as it has no way of exporting at the moment.

伊拉克目前無法出口，是以已大幅削減原油產量。

So today earlier we saw the price of Brent up sharply.

所以今天稍早我們看到布蘭特原油價格大幅上漲。

It's currently up around 3%, trading just below $84 a barrel now just off the level it hit when the war began.

目前上漲約3%，交易價略低於每桶84美元，就在戰爭開始時的價位附近。

The head of the International Maritime Organization has been speaking to the BBC and warned the effects on shipping will be felt all over the world, not just in the Middle East.

國際海事組織的負責人接受BBC採訪時警告，航運受到的影響將遍及全球，不只在中東。

What we're experiencing right now is that insurers are actually cancelling the insurance coverage or elevating the prices to astronomical levels when it comes to war coverage.

我們現在遇到的情況是，保險公司正在取消保險承保，或是將戰爭險的價格提高到天文數字。

Of course, all these will hamper the operations and in general will create additional strength and into the economy of the world.

當然，這一切都會阻礙營運，總體來說會對世界經濟產生額外的壓力。

So this will pass on the cost from one side to the other.

所以這會將成本從一方轉移到另一方。

This is something that has a global ramification.

It's not just what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz.

不僅僅是荷姆茲海峽發生的事情。

Well, the U.S. energy secretary has told Fox News the U.S.

美國能源部長告訴Fox News，美國

navy will start to escort oil tankers through the strait as soon as it can, but

海軍將盡快開始護送油輪通過海峽，但

they're currently focused on other things.

Bob McNally, who's a former energy adviser to President George W.

前美國總統喬治·W·布希的能源顧問 Bob McNally，他經常就能源議題向國會作證，他告訴我們，確保荷姆茲海峽的安全絕非易事。

Bush and frequently testifies to Congress on energy issues, told us that that securing the Strait of Hormuz is far from simple.

我認為美國軍方能夠讓海峽再次安全，但速度不會像市場參與者和投資者預期或想要的那麼快。

I think the US Military can make the strait safe again, however, not as quickly as I think market participants and investors would expect or want.

我認為這會是數週的問題，而不是數小時或數天。

I think it's going to be a matter of weeks, not hours or days.

而真正的問題本身並不是保險。

And the real issue is not insurance per se.

而是壓制伊朗讓船隻無法安全通過該海峽的能力。

It is suppressing Iran's ability to to make it unsafe for boats to go through that strait.

伊朗有很多小型、不對稱、層層疊加的彈藥，很難快速找到並摧毀。

Iran has a lot of small, asymmetric, layered types of munitions that are hard to find and kill fast.

攻擊艇、水雷、無人機，我們都看到了。

我認為美軍在達成制空權後，將會盡快開始優先處理這些。

And the US Military I think is going to start prioritizing those as soon as it achieves air superiority.

Well, the effects are already being felt in the US with prices at the pumps rising as refiners face higher crude costs.

嗯，美國已經感受到影響了，因為煉油廠的原料成本升高，油價也跟著漲。

The average cost of a gallon of regular Gasoline hit almost $3.20 on Wednesday, according to the American Automobile association, up more than 30 cents on a month ago.

根據美國汽車協會的數據，星期三，一加侖的普通汽油平均價格逼近 3.20 美元，比上個月貴了 30 多美分。

Diesel has seen its biggest jump since the Ukraine invasion, a gallon of Diesel averaging over $4 for the first time in nearly two years.

機油的漲幅是自從俄烏戰爭以來最大的，一加侖機油的平均價格近兩年來首次超過 4 美元。

Diesel, of course, is used by truckers and farmers, so higher costs feed into the price of food and other goods.

機油當然是卡車司機和農民在使用，所以成本的提高會反映在食物和其他商品的價格上。

Jamie Brito is executive director for refining and oil products at Chemical Operations Market analytics by Opus.

Jamie Brito 是 Chemical Operations Market analytics by Opus 的煉油和石油產品執行總監。

I asked him about whether these higher oil prices are being fed felt throughout the US Economy.

我問他，這些不斷上漲的油價是否已經影響到整個美國經濟。

Immediately after the attacks took place on Saturday, some retail station chains in the US Were already adjusting their prices for the consumer on Sunday.

攻擊發生在星期六，緊接著星期天，美國的一些零售加油站連鎖店就已經在調整對消費者的價格了。

You need to see that vessel that is not coming to the U.S.

你需要看看那艘船，它不會來到美國。

gulf coast four or five, six weeks from Saturday night.

墨西哥灣沿岸，從週六晚上算起四、五、六週後。

You're supposed to wait for the supply chain to actually trickle down.

你本來應該要等供應鏈慢慢地滲透下來。

But in modern times when you have instant information marginology companies adjust their prices based on what they expect inventories are going to do in the next few weeks.

但在現代，當你有即時資訊時，價格設定公司會根據他們預期未來幾週庫存的走向來調整價格。

I mean Jamie, we're just reading now coming through on the wires that, you know, Singapore jet fuel, the prices have hit an all time high as global supplies are, you know, concerns about restraints going forward.

Jamie，我們剛在新聞上看到，新加坡的噴射燃料價格創下歷史新高，因為全球供應，你知道，對未來的限制感到擔憂。

Do you see higher oil prices for some time to come and if so, what, what impact will that have on this war and Trump's strategy?

你認為油價會持續上漲一段時間嗎？如果會，這對這場戰爭和川普的策略會有什麼影響？

It is all a function of the time it takes for Any normalization of flows through Hormuz.

這完全取決於荷姆茲海峽的正常化流動需要多長時間。

Of course, if you have, you know, one, two weeks lingering, then for sure it will have a gradual upside impact on prices.

當然，如果拖延一、兩週，那麼價格肯定會逐漸受到上漲的影響。

And the grab spreads or the prices on refined fuels from gasoline, diesel, jet fuel are usually more volatile.

而汽油、機油、噴射燃料等精煉燃料的價差，通常比較不穩定。

In the case specifically of jet fuel, inventories are more scattered, are lower than what you have normally for gasoline or diesel.

特別是噴射燃料，其庫存比汽油或機油的庫存更分散、更低。

So we would expect to see significant impacts on the aviation sector.

所以我們會預期航空業會受到顯著影響。

And for sure we were going to see higher crude prices in the next couple of weeks.

而且在接下來的幾週，我們肯定會看到原油價格上漲。

If Americans are paying high prices at the pump, that will cause a change, do you think, in terms of the seasonality of prices?

如果美國民眾在加油站付更高的價格，這會改變價格的季節性嗎？

We are crude prices and gasoline prices were not supposed to increase until maybe the end of June towards the driving season.

原油和汽油價格應該要到六月底的駕駛季節才會上漲。

So what I'm saying is that this, this time is kind of a seasonal low demand moment.

所以我的意思是，現在這個時間點剛好是需求季節性偏低的時刻。

So that quote unquote is kind of a fortunate event for this development in terms of timing.

所以從時機點來看，這可說是一件幸運的事。

But yeah, for sure, for instance, if a US consumer is paying 40, 50% higher prices for the next couple of weeks, this definitely will have a political price.

但沒錯，如果美國消費者未來幾週要支付高出 40% 到 50% 的價格，這絕對會產生政治影響。

Well, I also talked to, to John Solve that, who is head of Middle east and North Africa at the Global Risk Consultants, Varysk Maplecroft.

嗯，我也有問過 Global Risk Consultants Varysk Maplecroft 中東和北非區的負責人 John Solve。

I asked him what he's advising his clients about risk at the moment.

我問他目前他會給客戶什麼風險建議。

Well, I think the first point is that, you know, the, the impact of this around the world, as we've just heard, is very extensive.

嗯，我認為第一點是，正如我們剛才聽到的，這對全球的影響非常廣泛。

And really the key message that we're telling our clients is that the longer this conflict continues along this, the same pattern that we've seen so far, you know, the bigger the ramifications.

所以，我們跟客戶說的重點是，這場衝突如果照目前看到的模式持續越久，影響就會越大。

And there's really a twofold challenge here.

And a lot of this just boils down to essentially Iran's response to US and Israeli military operations.

這很大程度上是因為伊朗對美國和以色列軍事行動的回應。

What we're seeing, of course, is that Iran is trying to impose a heavy an economic cost as possible on the US and on Israel and on the global economy.

我們看到的是，伊朗正試圖對美國、以色列以及全球經濟施加盡可能沉重的經濟代價。

And what we're seeing specifically is, you know, drone and missile strikes.

我們具體看到的是無人機和飛彈攻擊。

And there's really a twofold challenge to that one.

As we've just heard, the threat to shipping has meant that the flow of ships to and from the Persian Gulf has pretty much ground to a halt.

正如我們剛才聽到的，對航運的威脅意味著進出波斯灣的船運幾乎停滯。

And then secondly, we're seeing direct hits against very critical energy infrastructure, ports, industrial facilities.

再來，我們看到對非常關鍵的能源基礎設施、港口、工業設施的直接攻擊。

So these two things combined is really what is halting the flow of critical commodities from the region, things like oil and gas, but

所以這兩件事加起來，確實是導致該地區關鍵商品（像是石油和天然氣）流動停滯的原因，但

also other industrial chemicals, fertilizers.

也包括其他工業化學品、肥料。

So it's a very long list of commodities that is being directly affected by that and that is trickling down throughout the global economy.

所以，這份清單上的商品種類非常多，都直接受到了影響，並一路傳遞到全球經濟。

When the US Says, you know, we're going to provide protection to shipping and even, and

當美國說，你知道的，我們會提供航運保護，甚至，還有

even insurance, what's your take on that?

Because many are questioning how that would work on a, on a practical level and whether that will really change the minds of, of the big companies that would use their this route to ship their goods.

因為很多人都在質疑這在實際層面上會如何運作，以及這是否真的能改變那些會利用這條航線運送貨物的大公司們的想法。

And the key question at the moment is, you know, details for the, for these proposals.

而目前關鍵的問題是，你知道的，這些提案的細節。

I think given the current crisis, any kind of proposed solutions are very much welcome.

我認為鑑於目前的危機，任何形式的提案解決方案都非常受歡迎。

But time is very much of the essence here and it's very unclear how these two proposals are going to work.

但時間非常緊迫，而且這些提案將如何運作，目前還很不清楚。

And even if we were to move towards some sort of resolution, if we were to start to see a reduction in Iran's ability to launch missiles and drones, getting back to normal is going to take longer than what we've seen already.

即使我們朝著某種解決方案邁進，即使我們開始看到伊朗發射飛彈和無人機的能力下降，要恢復正常，也會比我們已經看到的還要花費更長的時間。

字幕列表影片播放

油價因擔憂伊朗戰爭恐持續而持續震盪！| BBC News (Oil prices still volatile over fears Iran war may drag on | BBC News)

absolutely

critical

average

impact