Name: 伊朗戰爭：會重演2003年伊拉克戰爭嗎？| DW 新聞 (Iran war: Iraq 2003 all over again? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-05T17:01:44.000Z
Duration: 9 min 45 s

As the war with Iran rages on, a question a lot of people have been raising is this, isn't this just like what happened in Iraq back in 2003?

隨著伊朗戰爭持續延燒，很多人都在問，這是不是跟 2003 年在伊拉克發生的事很像？

情態副詞

Now, maybe the Iraq war isn't something you remember clearly or at all.

現在，也許伊拉克戰爭不是你記得清楚，或者根本不記得的事情。

程度副詞

Maybe you were too young or maybe you were born after it happened.

也許你那時候太小了，或者你是在那之後才出生的。

But that war was one of the most controversial and consequential events of the early 2000s.

但那場戰爭是 2000 年代初期最具爭議性、影響深遠的事件之一。

And the way it unfolded still shapes how governments, militaries, and entire societies think about conflict today.

而它的發展方式至今仍在形塑政府、軍方和整個社會對衝突的看法。

So in this video, we're talking to someone who can really break this down, Dr.

所以在這支影片裡，我們要請一位能深入分析這件事的人，他就是博士。

Roham Albandy from the London School of Economics.

來自倫敦政治經濟學院的 Roham Albandy。

We're going to walk through what made the Iraq war so defining why the justifications for it sparked global outrage and whether the US Actions in Iran today spark share any meaningful parallels or if this is an entirely different story.

我們要一起探討是什麼讓伊拉克戰爭如此具有指標性，為什麼當時的理由引發了全球公憤，以及美國今天的行動是否與伊朗有任何有意義的相似之處，或者這是一個完全不同的故事。

First of all, the justifications for the war in 2003 turned out to be false.

首先，2003 年那場戰爭的理由後來被證明是錯誤的。

I mean, the idea that Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program posed an imminent threat that justified an attack on Iraq turned out to be not the case.

我的意思是，認為伊拉克的核子大規模殺傷性武器計畫構成迫在眉睫的威脅，足以證明攻擊伊拉克的理由，後來證實並非如此。

And then the second, I think, was that, you know, Iraq really had nothing to do with the September 11 attacks on the United States, despite the attempts of the Bush administration to kind of link Saddam Hussein's regime to Iraq.

然後第二點，我想是因為，你知道，儘管布希政府試圖將薩達姆侯賽因政權與伊拉克聯繫起來，但伊拉克其實跟美國 911 攻擊事件毫無關係。

所以這點後來也被證明是錯的。

So I think a lot of the controversy surrounding Iraq had to do with what is the reason for this war.

所以我認為，圍繞伊拉克的許多爭議都與「這場戰爭的理由是什麼」有關。

Why is the United States going to war against Iraq?

I think at the outset that was the main controversy.

我認為一開始這就是主要的爭議點。

Why I think that war was such a watershed was because it really was a war of choice for the United States.

我認為那場戰爭之所以成為一個分水嶺，是因為它對美國來說真的是一場「選擇的戰爭」。

And the aftermath of the war was handled so badly with such terrible consequences.

而戰後的處理方式非常糟糕，後果也極其嚴重。

And I think those two things still haunt the United States, still haunt Americans.

我認為這兩件事至今仍困擾著美國，仍困擾著美國人。

This idea that Iraq was a terrible mistake that shouldn't have happened and that we're still in a way, all these years later, living with the consequences of that decision.

這個想法，認為伊拉克是一個可怕的錯誤，本來不應該發生，而且我們在某種程度上，這麼多年後，仍然活在那項決定的後果之中。

So could the US War in Iran end the same way?

那麼，美國與伊朗的戰爭會以同樣的方式結束嗎？

Recently, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hexeth said, this is not Iraq.

最近，美國國防部長彼得·赫克塞特說，這不是伊拉克。

He called the last 20 years of nation building wars dumb.

他稱過去二十年的國家建設戰爭是愚蠢的。

那麼，為什麼這一切感覺如此熟悉？

The notion that this is a war of choice now in Iran definitely echoes with what happened in 2003.

現在說這場是伊朗的選擇性戰爭，確實讓人聯想到 2003 年發生的事。

And I think people are rightly drawing that parallel and really questioning whether given all the instability that was caused by the war in Iraq, given the horrific consequences of it for Iraqis, you know, was it really worth it?

我認為大家畫出這個相似之處是很對的，而且真的在質疑，鑑於伊拉克戰爭造成的所有不穩定，以及它對伊拉克人民造成的嚴重後果，這一切真的值得嗎？

Was it really worth embarking on a war of choice?

真的值得發動一場選擇性的戰爭嗎？

And I think the idea of another Middle east conflict, where the United States and its allies find itself kind of embroiled in a brutal conflict for decades, scares people and unnerves people.

我認為另一場中東衝突，美國及其盟友發現自己陷入長達數十年的殘酷衝突，這讓大家感到害怕和不安。

And that brings us to a second similarity.

這就帶我們看到第二個相似之處。

That this conflict violates international law.

Well, I think certainly we can draw parallels in terms of the illegality of the war, but

嗯，我認為我們當然可以從戰爭的非法性方面畫出相似之處，但是

I think any consideration of international law went out the window quite a long time ago.

我認為任何關於國際法的考量，早就被拋諸腦後了。

You know, it's part and parcel of a much bigger shift, global shift, that we're seeing as an old order is dying and a new order is emerging.

你知道，這是一個更大轉變、全球轉變的一部分，舊秩序正在消亡，新秩序正在崛起。

And it's very sad to say that this new era that we're entering is not one where there is any kind of concern for international law.

很遺憾地說，我們正在進入的這個新時代，並不是一個關心國際法的時代。

It's a Hobbesian world of a war of all against all, where life is nasty, brutish, and short.

這是一個霍布斯式的世界，所有人對抗所有人，生命變得骯髒、野蠻且短暫。

As Hobbes said, those countries that would like to hold on to some sense of international law order, particularly European countries, really will find it very difficult to do so, because, as, for example, Spain is finding out, the cost of defying Trump or standing up for that old order is going to be pretty steep.

正如霍布斯所說，那些想維持某種國際法秩序的國家，特別是歐洲國家，將會發現這非常困難，因為，就像西班牙正在發現的那樣，對抗川普或堅持舊秩序的代價將會相當高昂。

The lessons of history have taught us that it is important when we make decisions like this that we establish there is a lawful basis for what the United Kingdom is doing.

歷史的教訓告訴我們，當我們做出這樣的決定時，建立英國所做之事有合法基礎是很重要的。

這就是伊拉克戰爭的教訓之一。

I don't think that this is a war to, you know, for regime change or to create some sort of Iranian democracy or any of those kind of neoconservative visions that animated the American decision in 2003 in Iran.

我不認為這是一場為了政權更迭，或是為了創造什麼伊朗民主，或任何那些在2003年驅動美國在伊朗決定的新保守派願景的戰爭。

I think what's going on here is a decision to essentially cripple and weaken the Iranian state, regardless of who is in power in Iran.

我認為現在正在發生的是，無論伊朗由誰掌權，都要徹底削弱伊朗國家的決定。

If the objective of the Trump administration was regime change in Iran, was to create a secular and democratic Iran that could be potentially an American ally in the region.

如果川普政府的目標是伊朗的政權更迭，是創造一個世俗民主的伊朗，讓它有可能成為該地區的美國盟友。

There could be an Israeli ally in the region.

The kind of vision for Iran, for example, that Prince Reza Pahlavi has articulated, then I think they would have gone about this in a very different way.

像是Reza Pahlavi王子所闡述的那種對伊朗的願景，那麼我認為他們會用非常不同的方式來處理這件事。

First of all, there would have been much closer coordination between the Iranian opposition and the Trump administration.

首先，伊朗反對派和川普政府之間會有更緊密的協調。

There's very little evidence that that is the case.

I think it would have been a much more surgical strike that was aimed at decapitating the regime rather than degrading completely Iranian infrastructure, which it seems is the goal.

我認為這會是一次更精準的打擊，目標是斬首政權，而不是像現在這樣，似乎是為了徹底摧毀伊朗的基礎設施。

And I think there would have had to have been some element of boots on the ground realistically to carry out a regime change operation.

而且我認為，現實上必須要有地面部隊的參與，才能執行一場政權更迭的行動。

The idea that you can change a regime from the air is really unprecedented in history.

我認為從空中改變政權的想法，在歷史上是前所未有的。

We don't have any examples of that having been successfully achieved.

我們沒有任何成功達成這種目標的例子。

So I don't think that that is what the intention is.

所以我認為這不是他們的意圖。

I think there's been a sort of cost benefit analysis that, you know, Iran is in a very weak position.

我認為他們進行了一種成本效益分析，你知道的，伊朗現在處於一個非常弱的地位。

The axis of resistance that Iran had built up in Syria and Lebanon has been degraded, if not completely destroyed.

伊朗在敘利亞和黎巴嫩建立的抵抗軸心，即使沒有被完全摧毀，也已經被削弱了。

Protesters are on the streets of Iran demanding regime change.

伊朗街頭的抗議者要求政權更迭。

That this is an opportune moment essentially to cripple and paralyze Iran in a way that it won't pose any kind of problem or threat to Israel or the United States for years to come.

這基本上是一個絕佳的時機，可以讓伊朗癱瘓並麻痺，使其在未來許多年內都不會對以色列或美國構成任何問題或威脅。

And one final thought on why comparisons with the Iraq War of 2003 are difficult and why this time could be much different.

最後一個想法，關於為什麼將這次事件與2003年的伊拉克戰爭做比較很困難，以及為什麼這次情況可能大不相同。

The consequences of sowing chaos and disorder in a country three times the size of France and with a population of 90 million people.

在一個比法國大三倍、人口有九千萬的國家播下混亂和無序的後果。

The consequences of that would dwarf what has happened in Syria or Iraq.

那樣的後果將會讓敘利亞或伊拉克發生的事情相形見絀。

The consequences in terms of refugee flows towards Europe, the consequences in terms of energy prices, the consequences in terms of regional stability.

難民湧向歐洲的後果、能源價格的後果、區域穩定的後果。

How is the world going to deal with either an Iran that is in total chaos and disarray, or a version of the Islamic Republic that survives these strikes and lashes out at its own people in order to hold on to power and lashes out at the United States, Israel and anybody who helped them in carrying out these kinds of things.

世界要如何應對一個陷入徹底混亂無序的伊朗，或者是一個在這次打擊後倖存下來、為了鞏固權力而鎮壓自己人民，並報復美國、以色列以及任何協助他們進行這類行動的國家？

And I think people need to start thinking about how they're going to deal with a massive humanitarian problem in Iran that may well emerge from this conflict.

我認為大家需要開始思考，要如何應對這場衝突可能引發的伊朗大規模人道危機。

DW News is closely following this breaking news story to bring you more deep dives like this one on here and across the rest of social media.

DW News 正在密切關注這則突發新聞，並在我們的社群媒體上為大家帶來更多深入的分析。