Name: 瑞典的住宅工廠如何拯救美國房價！ (How Sweden’s Housing Factories Could Fix US Home Prices)
Uploaded: 2026-03-02T21:35:57.000Z
Duration: 11 min 37 s

In the far north of Sweden, the marvels of modern manufacturing are on full display.

在瑞典的極北之地，現代製造業的奇蹟正全面展現。

This looks more like a factory than a housing site.

這看起來比較像工廠，而不是住宅建築工地。

轉承詞

I hope so, otherwise we would have been failing.

我希望是這樣，不然我們就失敗了。

Here at Lindbecks, 500 miles north of Stockholm, houses aren't built piece by piece, they roll off an assembly line.

在距離斯德哥爾摩 500 英里的 Lindbecks，房屋不是一片一片蓋的，而是從裝配線上下線的。

The company produces roughly 40 units, a a rarity in an industry known for drawn out timelines.

這家公司大約生產 500 個單位，這在一個以漫長工期聞名的行業裡相當少見。

In Sweden, nearly half of single family homes and about 20% of all residential buildings are built this way.

在瑞典，近一半的獨棟房屋和約 20% 的住宅建築都是這樣蓋的。

International visitors, when they come to talk to you, what do they say about their own situation?

國際訪客來找你們談話時，他們會怎麼說他們自己的情況？

They say the price is too high, it's too cost, too costly to buy a home, to rent an apartment.

他們說房價太高了，買房、租公寓的成本太高了。

And they come to us to see if our way of doing it is the solution or part of the solution.

他們來找我們，是想看看我們的方式是否是解決方案，或是解決方案的一部分。

It's a growing concern that unites Americans on both sides of the aisle.

這是一個日益嚴重的問題，讓美國兩黨都團結起來。

America will not become a nation of renters.

美國不會成為一個租屋族國家。

You don't have to be in Congress to understand how badly we need to bring down the cost of housing and people on both sides of the Atlantic.

你不需要在國會裡，就能明白我們多麼迫切地需要降低住房成本，這也是大西洋兩岸人們的共同心聲。

This is more than a housing crisis, this is a social crisis.

這不只是一場住房危機，這是一場社會危機。

Apollo's Housing Affordability Index shows that buying a home in the United States hasn't been this difficult since the over the past decade alone, home prices have doubled and those who can afford to buy are significantly older.

阿波羅住房負擔能力指數顯示，過去十年來，美國的房價翻倍，而買得起房的人年齡也明顯增長，在美國購房從未如此困難。

In 2010, the median age of all US homebuyers was 39.

2010年，美國購房者的中位年齡是39歲。

The median age of a first time homebuyer has also climbed to 40.

首購族的中位年齡也攀升到40歲。

It's a dynamic that Beata Caranchi, chief economist at TD Bank Group, has spent much of her career analyzing.

這是TD銀行集團首席經濟學家Beata Caranchi投入許多職業生涯來分析的動態。

It's a large share of the economy in terms of workers it employs, in terms of output.

就其僱用的勞動力和產出而言，它是經濟的重要組成部分。

And then it's important because it's probably the most important thing people think about when they think about affordability, lifestyle, ability to pay for rent or home ownership.

然後它之所以重要，是因為當人們想到住房負擔能力、生活方式、支付租金或購房的能力時，這可能是他們最先想到的事情。

So I know myself when I'm out speaking with our clients, I think it's like the second or third question that comes up is about whether their children will be able to afford a home and what that outlook looks like.

所以，我自己出去和客戶交流時，我認為這是他們問的第二或第三個問題，關於他們的孩子是否買得起房，以及未來的展望如何。

When it comes to housing affordability, the issue comes down to a familiar equation.

談到住房負擔能力，問題歸結為一個熟悉的公式。

Purchasing power on one side, production constraints on the other.

一邊是購買力，另一邊是生產限制。

You have pointed to astonishing lack of productivity in the construction sector.

你已經指出了建築業驚人的生產力不足。

Yeah, it's beyond lack of productivity, it's regressing.

是的，這已經不是生產力不足的問題了，它正在倒退。

So to build a home, it actually takes more resources today than it would have taken 10 years ago.

所以蓋一棟房子，現在比十年前需要更多的資源。

Some of that is being related to the regulatory environment, the difference in standards and fees and permitting.

其中一些與監管環境、標準和費用以及許可證的差異有關。

Then the other factors that are being attributed to is in the residential sector, it's largely a small company game, which means they often have 50 employees or less.

接著，其他被歸咎的因素則是在住宅建築業，這很大程度上是小型公司在經營，也就是說他們通常只有 50 名員工或更少。

And from that perspective, they're going to be slower to adopt innovation.

從這個角度來看，他們會比較慢採用創新。

And there's a very high reliance on doing things the same old way, manual processes.

而且非常依賴用老方法做事，也就是人工流程。

One innovation that could help break that pattern is what Linbex is doing in Sweden, building homes in factories instead of on site.

一個有助於打破這種模式的創新是 Linbex 在瑞典的做法，他們選擇在工廠蓋房子，而不是在現場施工。

And while modular housing production does exist in the United States, it still makes up only about 3% of new single family home construction.

雖然組合屋的生產在美國也存在，但它仍然只佔新建獨棟房屋建築的 3% 左右。

So to what extent, what extent is modular housing, prefab housing, a solution to productivity challenges in the housing sector?

那麼，組合屋、預鑄屋在多大程度上能解決住宅業的生產力挑戰呢？

Yeah, it's been cited as having some clear advantages and potentially lowering the cost of housing by 20 to 30%.

是的，它被認為有一些明顯的優勢，並且有可能將住房成本降低 20% 到 30%。

That productivity advantage shows up most clearly in multifamily housing, Lynn Beck's specialty.

這種生產力優勢在多戶住宅建築中表現得最為明顯，這也是 Lynn Beck 的專長。

It's pretty much like if you go to automotive industry, you see machinery, you see people, you see processes and you see computers and robotics and material and so on.

這就像你去汽車行業，你會看到機器、看到人、看到流程，以及看到電腦、機器人和材料等等。

So we produce housing very like other organization produces cars.

所以我們生產住房的方式，跟其他組織生產汽車的方式非常相似。

We do it indoors year round, eight hours per day.

我們一年四季都在室內進行，每天八小時。

If I'm a potential client of yours, what are the financial benefits of buying a home from you rather than having someone build my building on site?

如果我是你的潛在客戶，跟你們買房子，而不是請人到現場蓋房子，在財務上有什麼好處？

With our process, you pay very late in the process, so the interest cost is lower.

透過我們的流程，你付款的時間點很晚，所以利息成本會比較低。

Traditionally, you pay for the foundation, you pay for the structure, you pay for the roof and blah, blah, blah.

傳統上，你得付地基的錢、結構的錢、屋頂的錢，還有等等等等。

So you end up with having quite a high cost for the interest and you pay very late with our method.

所以你最後會支付相當高的利息成本，而用我們的方法，你付款的時間點會比較晚。

The second thing is the engagement as a customer in the process.

第二個是客戶在整個流程中的參與度。

You don't need to supervise car manufacturing, you don't need to supervise housing done in a factory.

你不需要監督汽車製造，也不需要監督工廠蓋房子。

For all the cost advantages that come with manufactured housing, it has also met with resistance, something I myself encountered when advocating for its use while serving in the Canadian government.

儘管預鑄屋有所有成本上的優勢，但它也面臨阻力，這是我自己在加拿大政府任職期間，提倡使用預鑄屋時遇到的情況。

One of the policies the Prime Minister campaigned on was building modular housing.

總理競選時提出的政策之一，就是建造組合屋。

That is a way to get more homes built faster.

這是一種能更快蓋更多房子的方法。

I see had people heckling me in the House of Commons in Canada saying, oh, you want everyone to live in a Trailer park?

我記得在加拿大國會，有人對我大喊大叫，說「喔，你想要大家住拖車公園嗎？」

Is there sort of a stigma about prefab housing?

預鑄屋是不是有什麼刻板印象？

And there's like some factors, like, you know, prefab, you need wood frames, for example.

有些因素是，像是預鑄屋需要木頭框架。

And so some people will be, oh, the quality of the construction isn't as good, or, you know, I want to put my personal stamp on it, which you can in prefab, especially with 3D printing and other factors.

所以有些人會說，喔，建築品質沒那麼好，或者，我想要留下我個人的特色，這在預鑄屋裡是可以做到的，特別是結合 3D 列印和其他因素。

In terms of technology, it's not like it was 10, 15 years ago.

在技術方面，跟十幾二十年前已經不一樣了。

So part of it is the stage stigma and part of it is making sure you have the right skills to do this, right to make these design changes and to do it in an economical way so that people don't feel like it's all a cookie cutter factor coming through.

所以一部分是這種刻板印象，另一部分是要確保你擁有正確的技能，來做這些設計變更，並且以經濟實惠的方式來完成，這樣大家就不會覺得一切都是制式化的成品。

So it's breaking through that mentality of what prefab meant.

所以這是在打破「預鑄屋」過去的刻板印象。

It's not just buyer resistance that can be a challenge for manufactured housing.

對於預製房屋來說，面臨的挑戰不只是買家的抗拒。

It's also the need for steady demand in an industry that is notoriously cyclical.

還有這個以週期性聞名的行業，需要穩定的需求。

We try to maneuver to have a backlog that is about one year.

我們會盡量調度，讓手上的訂單大約有一年的量。

We can be one year ahead of what's happening.

我們可以比市場趨勢領先一年。

And one year is for us, it's a good time to have the backlog that long.

對我們來說，一年這樣子的訂單量是很不錯的。

But you need to take in consideration customers who have to wait for one year before we can hand over the next project.

但你們需要考慮到，有些客戶得等上一年，我們才能交屋下一個案子。

And if we see market going down, we need to address other kind of products so we can fill the production flow with projects.

如果我們看到市場下滑，我們需要考慮其他類型的產品，這樣我們才能用專案來填補生產線的流程。

And then there's the issue of regulation, something not unique to North America when it comes to home building.

還有法規的問題，這點在房屋建築上，不只在北美洲才看得到。

Elizabeth Svantesson is finance minister of Sweden.

Elizabeth Svantesson 是瑞典的財政部長。

Everywhere you go in, certainly in the western industrialized world, housing, especially the ability of young people to afford a home is a pressing political issue.

在西方工業化國家，無論你走到哪裡，住房，特別是年輕人負擔得起買房的能力，都是一個緊迫的政治議題。

It's something you and I talked about as finance ministers.

這件事，我們財政部長們都聊過。

It's a big issue, especially in bigger cities.

Many young people feel they don't really can afford to move quite early.

很多年輕人覺得他們真的負擔不起太早搬出去。

But it's difficult to afford it because the prices have risen so much.

但因為房價漲得太凶，所以很難負擔。

One of the largest problem in the housing market is it is over regulated.

住房市場最大的問題之一就是監管過度。

So rules added, rules added new rules all the time and that makes it difficult and very expensive to build.

所以不斷增加規則，不斷加入新規則，這讓建造變得困難又昂貴。

Tell me a little bit about what you've done on cutting red tape.

跟我說說你們在削減繁文縟節方面做了些什麼。

Many rules have been added and probably good purpose for every rule, but

很多規則都被加進來了，而且每條規則可能都有好的出發點，但是

all the rules make it very expensive to build.

所有的規定都讓建造變得非常昂貴。

So that's why we are really trying to do like now you can build like a Swedish house, a small house.

所以這就是為什麼我們真的在努力，像是現在你可以蓋一間瑞典風格的小房子。

you can live one or two in the house so you can come in, so you can have your own home.

你可以在裡面住一兩個人，所以你可以搬進來，擁有自己的家。

And governments aren't alone in grappling with how to build more and build faster.

政府也不是唯一一個在努力想辦法蓋更多、蓋更快。

It's increasingly seeing affordable housing as both a need and an opportunity.

它越來越把可負擔住房視為一種需求和機會。

JPMorgan plays a really big role in affordable housing.

摩根大通在可負擔住房方面扮演非常重要的角色。

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瑞典的住宅工廠如何拯救美國房價！ (How Sweden’s Housing Factories Could Fix US Home Prices)

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