Name: 伊朗是自斷後路嗎？ | Pinch Point (Has Iran rigged the game against itself? | Pinch Point)
Uploaded: 2026-02-16T21:43:35.000Z
Duration: 17 min 7 s

In June 2025, with US and Israeli airstrikes pounding Tehran, Iran's supreme leader did something he has avoided doing for years.

2025年6月，美國和以色列的空襲猛烈轟炸德黑蘭，伊朗最高領袖做了他多年來一直避免做的事。

情態副詞

Actually, he picked three potential successors, all senior clerics.

其實，他選了三位潛在繼承人，都是資深教士。

This was because the threats against his life were becoming real.

這是因為針對他的生命威脅越來越真實。

And so, hidden in a bunker at an undisclosed location, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wrote down three names, ones that would be kept secret as long as he remained in power.

於是，躲藏在一個不明地點的地下掩體裡，阿亞圖拉阿里·哈梅內伊寫下了三個名字，只要他還在位，這些名字就會被保密。

But this isn't how Iran's most senior political and religious figure is meant to be chosen.

但這並不是伊朗最高政治和宗教領袖的選拔方式。

That tells us something about how power works in Iran and what Iran's powerful are truly afraid of.

這告訴我們伊朗的權力運作方式，以及伊朗掌權者真正害怕的是什麼。

Iran has an elected president, but he has a limited portfolio.

伊朗有民選總統，但他的權力有限。

It has a national military, but also another parallel army that's even stronger.

伊朗有正規軍，但還有另一支更強大的平行軍隊。

It has influential business leaders, but it's the religious charities that make the real money.

伊朗有有影響力的企業領袖，但真正賺大錢的是宗教慈善機構。

On paper, this complicated network of economic, religious, and military alliances is meant to maintain a balance.

理論上，這種複雜的經濟、宗教和軍事聯盟網絡旨在維持平衡。

In reality, it's led to a web of competing interests, mistrust, and

實際上，這導致了利益衝突、不信任和

corruption, a web that's left only one person who is truly in control, one person holding it all together.

腐敗的網絡，這個網絡只留下一個人真正掌控一切，一個人維繫著一切。

Iran has enemies, powerful ones who have used crippling sanctions and military might to isolate the country and push its economy to the brink of collapse.

伊朗有敵人，而且是強大的敵人，他們利用毀滅性的制裁和軍事力量來孤立國家，並將其經濟推向崩潰邊緣。

And that has exposed the deep fractures within its society, the growing disillusionment with its elites, and

這也暴露了其社會內部深刻的裂痕，人們對精英階層日益幻滅，以及

But the deeper the crisis gets, the wider the web is spun.

The more powerful the state becomes, the weaker its society.

To understand what is happening in Iran today, we need to talk about the country's history of revolution and how it led to this delicate balancing act between theocracy, democracy, and

為了理解今日伊朗正在發生的事，我們需要談談這個國家的革命史，以及它如何導致了神權、民主和

the military, one that could now be unraveled.

軍方之間這種微妙的平衡，而這個平衡現在可能會被打破。

I'm Mohammed Hasan, and this is Pinchpoint, where politics and geography collide.

我是 Mohammed Hasan，這裡是 Pinchpoint，一個政治與地理交匯的地方。

We need to talk about Iran's revolution, but not the one you're probably thinking of.

我們需要談談伊朗的革命，但不是你可能想的那一次。

Not the one in 1979, the one that happened seven decades earlier, the Constitutional Revolution.

不是 1979 年的那場，而是發生在七十年前的憲政革命。

In 1905, three groups came together to demand change and representation.

1905 年，三個團體為了爭取改變和代表權而聯合起來。

They were the clerics, merchants, and secular reformists.

他們是教士、商人以及世俗改革派。

The clerics represented Iran's communities in rural provinces and their traditional ties to Islam.

教士們代表了伊朗農村地區的社群，以及他們與伊斯蘭教的傳統聯繫。

The reformists wanted to modernize Iran and create a democratic state in line with liberal Europe.

改革派想要讓伊朗現代化，並建立一個與歐洲自由主義國家接軌的民主國家。

And the merchants, or the bazaar represented the growing middle class, the business interests that weaved the country together.

而商人，也就是市集，代表了日益壯大的中產階級，以及將國家緊密連結在一起的商業利益。

Historically, power in Iran was decentralized.

從歷史上看，伊朗的權力是分散的。

Each Region had its own internal politics, its own leaders, and made its own decisions.

每個地區都有自己的內部政治、自己的領導人，並自己做決定。

It's why religious clerics hold so much influence.

這也是為什麼宗教教士擁有如此大的影響力。

If you had a problem, you went to your local mosque and spoke to the imam.

如果你有問題，你會去當地的清真寺找伊瑪目談。

This is what historian Mehran Kamrava calls a strong society with a weak state.

這就是歷史學家 Mehran Kamrava 所說的「強勢社會與弱勢國家」。

History of modern Iran, like the history of many other countries, is made up of this almost constant struggle between state and society, between people in position of institutions and instruments of power trying to force their, their ideology, their agenda, their policies on a society that beats to its own rhythm, sometimes is receptive to these pressures from above, and

現代伊朗的歷史，就像許多其他國家的歷史一樣，是由國家與社會之間、以及掌握權力機構和工具的人試圖強加他們的意識形態、議程、政策於一個有自己節奏的社會之間，幾乎不斷的鬥爭所組成，有時會接受來自上面的壓力，

sometimes either is oblivious and doesn't want to have anything to do with it and sometimes outright resents it.

有時則漠不關心，不想有任何牽連，有時甚至會強烈反對。

And so this state society tension is one of the defining factors, in fact, the defining factor.

是以，這種國家與社會的緊張關係是其中一個決定性因素，事實上，是決定性因素。

While this lack of a strong centralized state meant each region could be left to govern its own affairs, it left Iran at the mercy of foreign powers.

然而，這種缺乏強大中央集權的國家，雖然讓各個地區能夠自治，卻也讓伊朗任由外國勢力擺布。

They saw Iran as the bridge between east and west, fertile, resource rich, and

他們認為伊朗是連接東西方的橋樑，土地肥沃、資源豐富，

located conveniently along both ancient and modern supply routes.

而且地理位置優越，橫跨了古代和現代的貿易路線。

換句話說，就是一塊絕佳的戰略要地。

Throughout much of the 19th and 20th centuries, Russia and Britain often controlled different parts of Iran at once, trying to edge each other out through competing political and business deals with Iran's leaders.

在十九世紀和二十世紀的大部分時間裡，俄羅斯和英國經常同時控制伊朗的不同地區，試圖透過與伊朗領導人之間的政治和商業交易來互相排擠。

When they weren't helping one ruler stay in power, they were overthrowing another who wasn't playing ball.

他們有時會協助某位統治者鞏固權力，有時則會推翻另一位不聽話的統治者。

But Iran's society was changing, becoming more urbanized.

但伊朗的社會正在改變，越來越都市化。

Young people moved to the cities to seek education and career prospects.

年輕人為了尋求教育和職涯發展，紛紛移居城市。

The three sectors of Iran's society began to work with each other, to imagine the type of state that could protect them from predatory colonial forces.

伊朗社會的三個階層開始互相合作，共同構想一個能夠保護他們免受掠奪性殖民勢力侵害的國家。

A modern state that represented all its sectors, but one that would impose limits on absolute power.

一個代表所有階層的現代國家，但會限制絕對權力。

Together, they wrote a constitution and established an elected parliament, or Majlis.

他們一起制定了憲法，並設立了民選議會，也就是馬吉里斯。

They overthrew the Qajar dynasty and tried to usher in the change that would bring Iran into the 20th century.

他們推翻了卡扎爾王朝，並試圖帶來變革，讓伊朗進入二十世紀。

It's another to hold onto it and to be able to implement your ideas and to administer a country as vast and in a historically critical juncture when colonial powers have designs on it as Iran.

但要守住權力，並在像伊朗這樣一個廣大、處於歷史關鍵時刻，並且有殖民勢力覬覦的國家裡，實現你的想法並進行管理，又是另一回事了。

The constitutional revolution never really is able to consolidate its past, maybe five years at most.

憲政革命其實無法鞏固其過去，最多可能維持五年。

And so that vacuum and political paralysis provides and facilitates an opportunity for a military strongman to step in.

是以，這種真空和政治癱瘓為軍事強人提供了介入的機會。

A military commander with grand ambitions, Reza Pahlavi instead sidelined the parliament and the clergy, crowning himself a Shah king.

作為一位雄心勃勃的軍事指揮官，禮薩·巴列維反而將議會和教士排擠在外，自己加冕為國王。

But with all this power, he was still unable to protect Iran from foreign influence.

但儘管擁有這麼大的權力，他仍然無法保護伊朗免受外國勢力的影響。

During World War II, Britain and Russia invaded, once again forcing him to abdicate to his son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, someone they could work with.

第二次世界大戰期間，英國和俄羅斯入侵，再次迫使他退位給他的兒子，穆罕默德·禮薩·巴列維，一個他們可以合作的人。

In 1943, Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt held a conference in Tehran to debate how they could divide Iran amongst themselves and how they could keep it out of Germany's control.

1943年，史達林、邱吉爾和羅斯福在德黑蘭召開會議，討論如何瓜分伊朗以及如何使其不受德國控制。

All while Iran's people were forced to watch.

A decade later, Britain and the CIA overthrew Iran's Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, a leader of the constitutional revolution after he nationalized the country's oil sector.

十年後，英國和CIA推翻了伊朗總理穆罕默德·摩薩臺，他是一位憲政革命的領導人，因為他將國家石油業國有化。

That left the Shah with uncontested rule.

這使得國王得以不受挑戰地統治。

Once more, he passed economic reforms and liberalized the country.

他再次推動經濟改革並開放國家。

But under his watch, powerful secret police trained by the CIA went after democratic and religious leaders, imposing a climate of fear and control.

但在他的統治下，由CIA訓練的強大祕密警察追捕民主和宗教領袖，製造了恐懼和控制的氣氛。

By the 1970s, worsening economic conditions pushed more people into the cities, converging the three sectors of society as revolution was again in the air.

到了1970年代，惡化的經濟條件將更多人推向城市，社會的三個階層匯聚在一起，革命再次一觸即發。

The clerics urged their congregations to leave the mosques and take to the streets.

教士們敦促他們的會眾離開清真寺，走上街頭。

Allied around the exiled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iranians overthrew the Shah and his Western backers.

在被流亡的阿亞圖拉魯霍拉·霍梅尼領導下，伊朗人推翻了國王及其西方支持者。

What is your own role in this government that is to come?

在即將到來的政府中，你自己的角色是什麼？

I would not have any position in the future government as such, being the president or a prime minister.

我不會在未來的政府中擔任任何職位，像是總統或總理。

I will be some sort of supervising their activities.

我會扮演某種監督他們活動的角色。

I will give them guidance and if I see some deviation or some mistake, I will remind them how to correct it.

我會給予他們指導，如果我看到任何偏差或錯誤，我會提醒他們如何改正。

You would be in effect the strong man of Iran.

What followed wasn't the euphoric sharing a power everyone hoped for, but

接著發生的不是大家期望的權力分享的狂喜，而是

a fight for control between the three sectors of Iranian society.

伊朗社會三個派別之間的權力爭奪戰。

The clerics, with Khomeini as their head, came out on top.

以柯梅尼為首的教士們最終勝出。

Iran became an Islamic republic and the secular reformists were pushed out.

伊朗成為伊斯蘭共和國，世俗改革派被排擠出局。

A new constitution was drafted, setting up a hybrid system that combined theocratic rule with democratic elements under the umbrella of Islamic law.

新憲法被起草，建立了一個結合神權統治與民主元素，並以伊斯蘭法律為傘蓋的混合體系。

And here's where things start getting cross complicated.

而這就是事情開始變得複雜的地方。

It's helpful to imagine it as a pyramid with the Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah at the top.

想像它是一個金字塔，最高領導人，也就是大阿亞圖拉，就位居頂端。

He is chosen by an assembly of experts which is elected every eight years by popular vote, as is a president and a parliament every four years.

他是由一個專家會議選出的，這個會議每八年由普選產生，總統和國會則每四年選一次。

However, any laws the parliament drafts have to be approved by the Guardian Council, which is made up of senior clerics.

然而，國會起草的任何法律都必須獲得由資深教士組成的憲法監督委員會的準許。

These guys also decide who gets to run for president and who doesn't.

這些人也會決定誰能參選總統，誰不能。

The clerics are picked by the Supreme Leader and The judiciary.

教士是由最高領袖和司法機構選出的。

And the head of the judiciary is picked by the Supreme Leader.

而司法機構的首長則是由最高領袖選出的。

The president oversees the cabinet and economic and foreign policy, but

總統負責監督內閣以及經濟和外交政策，但是

has no control over the armed forces, which falls under, you guessed it, the Supreme Leader.

對軍隊沒有控制權，軍隊則由你猜到的最高領袖管轄。

There's another block next to the military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which operates as an independent security force answerable directly to the Supreme Leader.

軍隊旁邊還有另一個單位，伊斯蘭革命衛隊，它是一個獨立的維安部隊，直接向最高領袖負責。

And the IRGC has become a lot more than just an army.

而且，伊斯蘭革命衛隊已經不只是單純的軍隊了。

At the base of this pyramid, you have the voting electorate, the ordinary people of Iran.

在這個金字塔的底部，就是有投票權的選民，也就是伊朗的普通民眾。