Name: 中國掌握稀土！但還能持續多久？| The Dip Podcast (China controls rare earths. But for how much longer? | The Dip Podcast)
Uploaded: 2026-02-10T17:33:59.000Z
Duration: 11 min 41 s

程度副詞

This whole rebalancing, I mean, it's a real place where the geopolitics and the economics really meet.

整個這種再平衡，我的意思是，這真的是地緣政治和經濟學真正交會的地方。

情態副詞

The west has suddenly thought, well, we need to do something about this, and

西方國家突然想到，嗯，我們得對這件事做點什麼，而且

we need to secure our own supply chain, and

我們需要確保我們自己的供應鏈，並且

we have to make sure we have our own critical minerals.

我們必須確保我們有自己的關鍵礦物。

The US Is clubbing together with other nations to make a critical mineral alliance.

美國正和其他國家聯手，建立一個關鍵礦物聯盟。

Well, to counter China's dominance, of course, but can the west really overcome its dependence on China?

嗯，當然是為了對抗中國的主導權，但西方國家真的能克服對中國的依賴嗎？

And when we have China question, we go to our China analyst, Clifford Koonin, who has more with us right now.

談到中國這個議題，我們請到我們的中國分析師 Clifford Koonin，他現在有更多資訊。

So, Clifford, what is this alliance all about?

所以，Clifford，這個聯盟到底是什麼意思？

I mean, China's name didn't come up in the government fact sheet, which was all about the alliance, but

我的意思是，中國的名字沒有出現在政府的簡報裡，而簡報全都是關於這個聯盟，但是

yet it is really the elephant in the room here.

但這其實是個懸而未決的問題。

Yeah, well, these critical minerals, they're essential for use in semiconductors, in your iPhones, in all your various.

對，這些關鍵礦物，對於半導體、iPhone，還有你們各種產品的製造都非常重要。

They're just used as components to make components for so many different things that people use every day.

它們只是組件，用來製造更多組件，做成大家每天都在用的各種東西。

And most people, you know, most of them come from China.

而且大多數人，你知道的，大多數都來自中國。

China has got the best developed industry for producing critical minerals and raw rare earths.

中國擁有最發達的關鍵礦物和原生稀土生產工業。

So basically that means that when the U.S.

for example, instigated the trade war with its trade tariffs, China was just able to say, okay, we're keeping.

舉個例子，發動貿易戰和貿易關稅，中國就能說，好，我們不給。

So basically, the Trump administration caved.

所以基本上，川普政府就屈服了。

So they're clearly, they're a great bargaining chip for the Chinese.

所以顯然，它們是中國的絕佳籌碼。

And with this in mind, the west has suddenly thought, well, we need to do something about this, and

考量到這一點，西方國家突然想到，嗯，我們得對這件事做點什麼，

而且我們需要確保自己的供應鏈，

我們必須確保我們擁有自己的關鍵礦物。

Now, this has seen a lot of people going to Africa, seen a lot of people going to South America from the west looking for their own resources.

現在，這讓很多人從西方國家去了非洲，去了南美洲尋找自己的資源。

But then recently, Scott Besant and Marco Rubio in the US have sort of decided that they wanted to.

但最近，美國的 Scott Besant 和 Marco Rubio 似乎決定他們想要。

To form some kind of Western alliance where they will all secure the supply of rare earths.

建立某種西方聯盟，讓大家都能確保稀土的供應。

And the big thinking behind this is because Donald Trump is going to China in April, and

而這樣做的主要考量是，因為川普將在四月訪問中國，

he wants to have something big that he can deliver.

他希望能有些重大成果可以交差。

So the expectation is that they will come up with this alliance of all these countries with the rare earths and critical minerals by that time, which, as we know from all of these trade agreements and everything like that, they just don't happen that quickly.

所以大家預期，屆時他們會提出一個由各國組成的稀土和關鍵礦物聯盟，但就像我們從所有這些貿易協定和類似的事件中知道的，這種事不會這麼快就發生。

So that's basically the background, and it's kind of an interesting idea, actually.

這基本上就是背景，而且其實是個挺有趣的構想。

And maybe with a Different administration, it would be, you know, it would be sort of more credible.

也許換了不同的政府，會比較…嗯，比較有可信度。

It's just everyone's feeling a little bit battered at the moment.

只是大家此刻都覺得有點疲憊。

I mean, even thinking about this is exhausting, you know, because we just had weeks of real antagonism from the US and then suddenly you come around and say, we want to be your friend, you know.

畢竟，光是想到這件事就讓人筋疲力盡了，因為我們才剛經歷了美國幾週的強硬態度，然後突然又說，我們想當你的朋友。

So it's just, it's a pretty challenging prospect.

所以這確實是個相當艱鉅的挑戰。

So what we've seen is a lot of European leaders say recently, Clifford, that they want more sovereignty.

所以我們看到，最近很多歐洲領導人都說了，Clifford，他們想要更多的自主權。

We saw that in Davos at the World Economic Forum.

我們在世界經濟論壇的達沃斯會議上看到了這一點。

Even Mark Carney from Canada, the Prime Minister, said pretty much the same thing.

就連加拿大的總理 Mark Carney 也說了差不多一樣的話。

And yet he's been to China to make deals.

Keir Starmer from the UK has been to China to make deals.

英國的 Keir Starmer 也曾到中國去談判。

Of course, the complicated thing which I want you to kind of unravel here is just going and saying we're going to do some business with China, necessarily itself a bad thing.

當然，我想讓大家在這裡釐清的複雜之處在於，去說我們要和中國做生意，這本身並不一定是一件壞事。

You can't cut off all ties all of a sudden overnight.

你不可能突然之間就斷絕所有的關係。

On the one hand, building up this alliance to have more sovereignty and on the other hand doing business deals with China.

一方面是建立聯盟以獲得更多主權，另一方面則是與中國做生意。

I mean, let's just cast our minds back a few years, say 20 years when China was starting to emerge.

我想，我們回想一下幾年前，大概二十年前，中國剛開始崛起的時候。

And you'd have these trade delegations that would go to China with the head of state, the German Chancellor would go once, sometimes even tw a year.

你會看到這些貿易代表團，由國家元首帶隊，德國總理一年會去一趟，有時候甚至兩趟。

They would come with these glistening, shining, fantastic industrial products that China lapped up and they would make billion dollar, billion dollar trade deals.

他們會帶著這些閃閃發光、非常棒的工業產品去，中國全盤接受，然後他們就簽訂了數十億、數十億美元的貿易協議。

They'd buy, you know, engines, they'd buy technology, they'd buy all of this sort of stuff and then the, the European leader would read out the list of human rights issues that it had and the Chinese would nod and, and

他們會購買引擎、購買技術，購買所有這類東西，然後歐洲領導人會唸出人權問題清單，中國方面就點點頭，然後

And, and you know, the economy just grew.

然後，你知道的，經濟就這樣成長了。

China then took, they, you know, as part of the deals, they, there was technology transfer.

中國接著就利用，你知道的，作為協議的一部分，他們進行了技術轉讓。

They were required to give insight into how the technology worked which helped China build up this incredible industrial story that is China now.

他們被要求提供技術運作方式的見解，這幫助中國建立了現在這個令人難以置信的工業發展故事。

I mean it's, it's, it's, it's catching up on, on the west, on many, many high tech fronts.

我想，他們正在迎頭趕上西方，在許多、許多高科技領域。

But it really is quite an incredible story as we all know.

但這確實是一個我們都知道的、非常不可思議的故事。

So suddenly when these Western leaders arrived and that was what was really interesting, looking at Keir Starmer and looking at, you know, Macron even, you know, how the attitude has changed because China just doesn't really need them anymore.

所以突然間，當這些西方領導人抵達時，這才是真正有趣的地方，看看基爾·斯塔默，看看，你知道的，連馬克宏，你知道的，態度是如何改變的，因為中國根本就不再需要他們了。

And that's a different, that's a complete shift because China has suddenly it's Europe has become a way of offsetting the market that it's lost because the US has basically closed.

這是一個不同的、完全的轉變，因為中國突然間，歐洲已經成為一種抵銷它失去市場的方式，因為美國基本上已經關閉了。

I mean there's about a half a trillion dollars worth of exports goes to the EU from China.

我的意思是，中國出口到歐盟的商品大約有五千億美元。

Last year in the US it was nearly half that and it had dropped by, it was about 280 billion and that was down from 430 billion or something in that direction.

去年在美國，這個數字幾乎是它的一半，而且從大約四千三百億美元或類似的數字下降到大約兩千八百億美元。

So you can sort of see that it's a real, it's a major, major change in things.

所以你可以看到，這是一個真實的、重大的、重大的改變。

And the other thing about the EU leaders going on their own, first of all, China doesn't need them.

還有就是歐盟領導人單獨出訪的另一件事，首先，中國不需要他們。

And China also sees a way to kind of divide the EU a little bit because a lot of people see a lot of the bigger nations see the eu sorry, see China as a strategic competitor.

中國也看到了一種方法，可以稍微分化歐盟，因為很多人，很多大國認為歐盟，抱歉，認為中國是一個戰略競爭對手。

And you don't hear that language so much now from the big EU countries, but

而且現在你比較聽不到歐盟大國們這樣說了，但是

you are seeing divisions in how the EU reacts because China really only worries about the EU when it's dealing with a bloc.

你確實看到歐盟在應對中國時出現了分歧，因為中國只會在歐盟以一個整體來處理時才會真正擔心。

That's how these power blocks work, you know.

你知道，這些權力集團就是這樣運作的。

And then when you've got, you know, Ireland and the Finns and okay, I know the UK isn't in the EU anymore, but

然後當你有，你知道，愛爾蘭和芬蘭，還有，我知道英國已經不在歐盟了，但是

But the UK is part of this alliance, this critical minerals alliance with the US that fits into that whole modus operandi.

但英國是這個聯盟的一部分，這個關鍵礦物聯盟，與美國一起，這也符合那種運作模式。

Like if we club together then China's going to find it more difficult to divide and rule.

就像如果我們團結起來，中國就會發現更難分而治之。

And then just to sort of shift perspective a bit over to this, you know, this US idea about critical minerals, they're also trying this thing, Pax silica, which is a sort of a, again an alliance to combat China's increasing dominance in semiconductors.

然後我們稍微換個角度，談談這個，你知道，美國關於關鍵礦物的想法，他們也在嘗試這個，Pax silica，這是一個類似的聯盟，旨在對抗中國在半導體領域日益增長的主導權。

Scott Bezant, the Treasury Secretary mentioned at Davos, I think where he was saying the 97% of the high end semiconductor chips are made in Taiwan.

And this was possibly one of the biggest weaknesses in the global economy.

Because if that suddenly, if that situation were to change where the US were China to invade Taiwan, then suddenly you're going to have a massive rebalancing of global power.

And he's also said the same thing about critical minerals.

You know, he said that China's dominance is extremely dangerous.

And he's talked about his own state, South Carolina, where they've started to do critical minerals again.

財政部長 Scott Bezant 在 Davos 提到，我認為他說了，97% 的高階半導體晶片是在臺灣製造的。

And he reckons that they're going to be able to, you know, they'll be up and running within two years.

這可能是全球經濟最大的弱點之一。

So this whole rebalancing, I mean, it's a real place where the geopolitics and the economics really meet.

因為如果突然，如果美國和中國之間發生臺灣被入侵的情況，那麼全球權力將會出現巨大的重新平衡。

Because you know, where previously military muscle was how you kind of backed up, how you backed up your, your ambitions, your diplomat ambitions, your political ambitions, now it seems to be raw materials, it's buying power, it's imports, exports, it's investment.

他也說了關於關鍵礦物同樣的事情。

他說中國的 Dominance 非常危險。

I think that, you know, they often talk about sanctions being, as being sort of choke points, you know, that you can, you don't really need to use your army anymore, although it helps to have a big one but, or a powerful one, but

我認為，你知道，他們常說制裁是，是那種關鍵點，你知道，你不需要真的動用軍隊了，雖然有軍隊很有幫助，或者強大的軍隊，但是

So I think it's very interesting where the way all of these things are emerging right now.

所以我認為現在所有這些事情的發展方式非常有趣。

But it's interesting too because so many of these things are related.

但也很有趣，因為這麼多事情都相關聯。

If you want to have the newest defensive gear, smart weapons and so on, you need these raw materials to make it work.

如果你想要最新的國防裝備、智慧武器等等，你就需要這些原生礦物來讓它們運作。

You've hinted at this a little bit, Clifford, but

Clifford，你稍微提到了這一點，但是

I'm wondering in your view, how dependent is Europe on China?

我想知道在你來看，歐洲對中國有多依賴？

Well, this is a really interesting point.

嗯，這是一個非常有趣的問題。

The problem for Europe now and Germany, let's use Germany.

歐洲現在的問題，還有德國，我們就以德國為例。