Name: 2026年股市崩盤大解密！ (2026 Stock Market Crash Explained)
Uploaded: 2026-02-09T18:19:34.000Z
Duration: 11 min 17 s

情態副詞

Nvidia, Palantir, Microsoft, you name it.

Nvidia、Palantir、Microsoft，隨便你說。

Even Bitcoin crashed to less than $70,000.

People are freaking out because they don't understand what exactly is happening.

大家慌了，因為他們不明白到底發生了什麼事。

Just a few months ago, the entire stock market was exploding.

幾個月前，整個股市還在飆漲。

But what if I told you that this crash is not by accident?

但如果我告訴你，這次崩盤並非意外呢？

Blackrock, State street and largest hedge funds are selling hundreds of billions of dollars worth of stocks.

Blackrock、State street 和最大的對沖基金正在拋售數千億美元的股票。

Are they preparing for a much bigger crash?

他們是不是在準備迎接更大的崩盤？

Here is the real reason why the stock market is collapsing.

There is a global sell off of stocks across multiple industries by the largest hedge funds across the globe.

全球最大的對沖基金正在拋售各行各業的股票。

Primarily because largest tech companies have announced hundreds of billions of dollars of capital expenditure assets.

主要原因是大型科技公司宣佈了數千億美元的資本支出資產。

Amazon stock sinks because the company announced that they will be investing $200 billion into AI.

Amazon 股價下跌，因為該公司宣佈將投資 2000 億美元於 AI。

Alphabet says that they will invest $180 billion.

Alphabet 表示將投資 1800 億美元。

In total, the big tech has announced $700 billion investment into AI.

總計，大型科技公司已宣佈對 AI 投資 7000 億美元。

On one side, it might seem like stocks should be growing because these companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars to develop the history of humanity.

一方面，這些公司花費數千億美元來發展人類歷史，股票似乎應該在增長。

But in reality, that much investment is only going to crush the stocks because it is going to drive the free cash flow down.

但實際上，這麼大的投資只會壓垮股票，因為這會導致自由現金流下降。

When you look at the stock, you have to look at its valuation and the valuation of the stock derives of how much the company is going to earn for its investors.

觀察股票時，你得看它的估值，而股票的估值來自於公司能為投資人賺多少錢。

Investors look at any stock like a printing machine that is going to earn money for them.

投資人看待任何股票，都像是一臺會為他們賺錢的印鈔機。

And free cash flow is the money that company is earning for investors on after covering expenses.

而自由現金流就是公司在支付所有開銷後，為投資人賺進的錢。

The business can take that money and pay back the investors in form of dividends or stock buybacks.

公司可以拿這筆錢，以股息或股票回購的形式回饋投資人。

A dividend is when the company directly distributes the cash that it earns after covering its expenses to investors.

股息是指公司將支付完開銷後賺到的現金，直接分配給投資人。

So you have a direct return on your investment.

這樣你就能直接獲得投資回報。

But the second way that companies usually reward the investors is when the company takes the free cash flow and starts buying its own stocks in the market.

但公司通常獎勵投資人的第二種方式是，公司會拿自由現金流去市場上買回自家的股票。

The price of any stock is determined by demand and supply.

任何股票的價格都是由供需決定的。

The more of the stock available in the market, the lower will be the price and vice versa.

市場上可供購買的股票越多，價格就越低，反之亦然。

So if the company is going to take its own money and is going to buy the stock from the market, it is going to reduce the amount of stocks in the market, which is going to make the stock a lot more valuable.

所以如果公司要用自己的錢去市場上買股票，就會減少市場上的股票數量，這會讓股票變得更有價值。

If you haven't started investing yet and you want a step by step guide on how to start investing, make sure to check the investing Academy.

如果你還沒開始投資，想找一份一步一步的投資教學指南，記得去看看投資學院。

on the other side, if the company is going to say no, we are not going to pay that money back to investors, but

另一方面，如果公司決定不把錢還給投資人，

rather we will invest that money into the future by building new industries, by building AI.

而是會把錢用來投資未來，像是建立新的行業、建立AI。

So the $700 billion that's supposed to go into the pockets of investors is going to go rather to develop AI, which is why the valuation of the stocks instantly sunk.

所以原本要進到投資人口袋的七千億美元，反而會拿去發展AI，這也是為什麼股票的估值瞬間就下跌了。

Capital expenditure investment can only grow the stock when the ROI is higher than the capital expenditure itself.

資本支出的投資，只有在報酬率高於資本支出本身時，才能讓股價成長。

If you have a business where you put $1 and it generates $2, so it doesn't matter how much money you're throwing into the business, the more money you are throwing, the more money the business is making.

如果你的生意是投入一塊錢可以賺到兩塊錢，那不管你投入多少錢，你投入越多，生意賺得就越多。

But when you're increasing your capital expenditure and it's not clear how much money you're directly making out of these investments, suddenly from the perspective of investors, you are not making a rational investment.

但當你增加資本支出，卻不清楚這些投資到底能直接賺多少錢時，投資人就會覺得你沒有做一個理性的投資。

And right now the revenues and the profits that you're getting from AI are way behind capex.

而目前從AI獲得的營收和利潤，遠遠落後於資本支出。

So companies investing hundred billions of dollars, but

所以公司投入了數千億美元，但是

we don't see a direct revenue or profit from these investments, which is why their valuations are going down significantly.

我們看不到這些投資有直接的營收或利潤，這也是為什麼他們的估值會大幅下跌。

So when you have blackrock, State street and large hedge funds who do exact valuations, just by looking at this 700 billion dollar investment, they can come to a very simple conclusion that we are going to make a lot less money than we did in the past.

所以當 Blackrock、State street 和大型對沖基金進行精確估值時，光是看到這 7000 億美元的投資，他們就能得出一個很簡單的結論：我們賺的錢會比過去少很多。

Which is why it is time to sell the stocks and bring them down to their true valuation.

這也是為什麼現在是時候拋售股票，讓它們回到真實的估值。

The second reason why the market is collapsing is because everybody is expecting a recession.

市場崩潰的第二個原因是，大家都在預期經濟衰退。

The US economy is adding way less jobs than it used to in the past.

美國經濟新增的就業人數遠遠少於過去。

So In January of 2023, the US economy has added almost half a million jobs.

所以，在 2023 年 1 月，美國經濟增加了將近 50 萬個工作機會。

In January of 2026, we don't have the final numbers yet, but

在 2026 年 1 月，我們還沒有最終的數字，但是

it's estimated that the US economy will add about 20,000 jobs.

預計美國經濟將會增加大約 2 萬個工作機會。

So compare 20,000 jobs to half a million jobs and you realize that the US economy is in fact actually slowing down substantially.

所以比較一下 2 萬個工作機會和 50 萬個工作機會，你就會發現美國經濟實際上正在大幅放緩。

And the jobs report is the most important indicator of a recession.

而就業報告是經濟衰退最重要的指標。

A recession is two negative GDP growth quarters and GDP grows when there is a lot of spending.

衰退就是連續兩個季度的 GDP 負增長，而當有很多支出時，GDP 就會增長。

If people are spending, they're earning money, they're buying stuff, GDP grows way faster.

如果大家都在花錢，他們就能賺到錢，他們買東西，GDP 就會增長得更快。

But when there is less spending in the economy, the GDP is going to slow down and the economy falls into a recession.

但是當經濟中的支出減少時，GDP 就會放緩，經濟就會陷入衰退。

So the labor market is the most important indicator because if we're adding less jobs and people have a lot less income, which means that there is going to be a Lot less spending, which means that there is going to be a lot less growth, which means that there is going to be a recession.

所以勞動市場是最重要的指標，因為如果我們增加的工作機會越來越少，大家收入也變少，這就意味著支出會大幅減少，成長也會大幅減少，這就意味著會發生衰退。

The sequence is very clear and very straightforward, which is why investors always look at the labor market to find out if the economy is about to fall into a recession.

這個順序非常清楚也很直接，這也是為什麼投資人總是關注勞動市場，來判斷經濟是否即將陷入衰退。

And a recession instantly changes the value of cash.

而衰退會瞬間改變現金的價值。

A dollar today is worth more, a lot than a dollar tomorrow.

今天的 1 元比明天的 1 元更有價值，多很多。

If I would ask you what worth more a million dollars today or a million dollars a year from now.

如果我問你，一百萬美元現在值錢，還是一年後的一百萬美元值錢。

For most people, it doesn't matter whether it's a million dollar today or a million dollars a year from now.

對大多數人來說，一百萬美元現在值錢還是一年後的一百萬美元值錢，這並不重要。

But if you think about it from the perspective of an investor, if you had that million dollars today, you could have invested that money and generated interest.

但如果你從投資者的角度來看，如果你今天就有一百萬美元，你就可以把這筆錢拿去投資，產生利息。

So a million dollars today worth a lot more than a million dollars a year from now.

所以一百萬美元在今天比一年後的一百萬美元值錢多了。

You can even throw it in the US treasuries and earn 3.5 to 4% in interest rate.

你甚至可以把它存進美國國庫券，賺取 3.5% 到 4% 的利率。

You can throw it into the stock market and make 10%, 10 to 15%.

你可以把它投入股市，賺取 10%、10% 到 15%。

So a million dollars a year from now is going to worth a lot less than a million dollars today.

所以一年後的一百萬美元，價值會比今天的一百萬美元少很多。

Which is why a dollar today worth a lot more than a dollar tomorrow.

這就是為什麼今天的 1 元比明天的 1 元值錢多了。

The real question is what exactly recessions do to the value of the cash.

真正要問的是，衰退到底對現金的價值做了什麼。

Cash flow becomes a lot more valuable today when we expect a recession.

當我們預期有衰退時，現金流在今天變得更有價值。

To find the present value of that future million dollars, we have to discount it to today's dollars.

要找出未來一百萬美元的現值，我們必須將它折現到今天的美元價值。

If the economy falls into a recession, the probability of earning that million do becomes a lot lesser and the risks are increasing, which means that the discounted rate is going to be a lot higher.

如果經濟陷入衰退，賺到那一百萬的機率會變小，風險也會增加，這表示折現率會高很多。

Which means that that million dollars today is going to worth a lot less.

這意味著，現在的一百萬美元價值會少很多。

And that also happens when the Federal Reserve increases or decreases interest rates.

這也發生在聯準會升息或降息的時候。

When the Fed increases interest rates, it brings down inflation and it makes future cash flow a lot less valuable.

當聯準會升息時，會抑制通膨，讓未來的現金流價值大幅降低。

When the Fed lowers down interest rates, it increases inflation, which makes future cash flow a lot more valuable.

當聯準會降息時，會增加通膨，讓未來的現金流價值大幅提升。

So because companies are antic a recession, current cash flow becomes a lot more valuable.

所以因為公司預期衰退，目前的現金流變得更有價值。

So the businesses that are generating a lot more cash today instantly become more valuable.

所以那些現在產生更多現金的企業，價值會瞬間提升。

While the businesses that will generate money sometime in the future are going to be a lot less valuable.

而那些未來某個時候才會產生營收的企業，價值會大幅降低。

Because the present value of their future value or the future cash flow is going to be a lot less valuable.

因為他們未來價值或未來現金流的現值，會變得非常有價值。

Which is why the Stock Price of ExxonMobil is rising even though that the stock market is crushing.

這就是為什麼即使股市崩盤，埃克森美孚的股價還在漲。

Because ExxonMobil is not building an AI infrastructure structure to make a lot of money in the future, but

因為埃克森美孚不是在蓋一個未來能賺大錢的AI基礎設施，

rather they're extracting oil and they're selling that oil today, and

而是他們在開採石油，並且今天就賣掉這些石油，

而且他們正在產生大量的現金流。

Compare that to Microsoft that is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to develop AI that will generate a lot of more cash flow sometime in the future.

相較之下，Microsoft 正在花費數千億美元開發 AI，這將在未來產生更多現金流。

So the probability of a recession rises, the value of that future cash flow goes down, the valuation of Microsoft goes down, which is one of the fundamental reasons why the stock price of Microsoft is going down.

所以經濟衰退的機率越高，未來現金流的價值就越低，Microsoft 的估值也就越低，這也是 Microsoft 股價下跌的基本原因之一。

The same thing applies to any other business or a stock or asset that promises to become a lot more valuable sometime in the future or make a lot more money sometime in the future.

同樣的道理也適用於任何其他承諾未來會變得更有價值或未來會賺更多錢的企業、股票或資產。

And because tech companies today represent a much bigger share of the entire stock market, when they go down, the entire stock market goes down.

而且由於科技公司今天佔整個股市的比例越來越大，當它們下跌時，整個股市也會跟著下跌。

In fact, top 10 largest tech companies today represent a third of the entire S&P 500.

事實上，今天市值最大的十家科技公司佔了整個 S&P 500 的三分之一。

So if the top 10 largest companies go down slightly, they will drag with them the rest of the S&P 500.

所以如果市值最大的十家公司稍微下跌，它們就會拖累 S&P 500 的其餘部分。

The third reason is uncertainty about quantitative easing.

第三個原因是量化寬鬆政策的不確定性。

Quantitative easing either pushes the stock market up or down.

量化寬鬆政策不是推升股市，就是壓低股市。

Because quantitative easing is when the Federal Reserve buys massively US Treasuries in the market, which means that it is pumping trillions of dollars into the economy.

因為量化寬鬆政策是聯準會大量收購市場上的美國國債，這意味著它往經濟體注入數兆美元。

Since 2022, the Federal Reserve started quantitative tightening, which means that it is taking money out of the economy and lets the U.S.

自從 2022 年以來，聯準會開始實施量化緊縮政策，也就是從經濟體中抽離資金，讓美國國債到期而不進行再融資，聯準會的資產負債表縮減至 6.5 兆美元。

treasuries to expire without refinancing them the Fed balance sheet to $6.5 trillion.

但如果你仔細觀察，你會發現這個趨勢在去年十二月就已經逆轉了，當時聯準會宣佈他們將再次開始實施量化寬鬆政策。

But if you pay a very close attention, you will realize that that trend has been reversed back at December of last year when the Federal Reserve announced that the Fed will start yet again quantitative easing.

聯準會將每月收購 400 億美元的美國國債。

The Federal Reserve will be buying $40 billion of U.S. treasuries monthly.

這對市場來說是個好消息，因為如果你今天往經濟體注入資金，未來的現金流價值就會更高，這將推升科技公司，尤其是 AI 公司的股價。

That was good news for the markets because if you are pumping money into the economy today, it is going to make the future cash flow a lot more valuable, which is going raise stock prices of tech companies, especially AI companies.

但現在唐納·川普宣佈他下一個聯準會主席將會是 Kevin Warsh。

But now Donald Trump has announced that his next chair of the Fed is going to be Kevin Warsh.

而 Kevin Warsh 曾多次表示，他主要反對量化寬鬆政策。

And Kevin Warsh has stated multiple times that he is primarily against quantitative easing.