Name: 人生是場線上遊戲嗎？ | 伊隆·馬斯克 | Code Conference 2016 (Is life a video game? | Elon Musk | Code Conference 2016)
Uploaded: 2026-02-09T03:28:55.000Z
Duration: 3 min 44 s

情態副詞

There's sort of a philosophic concept that a sufficiently advanced civilization will be able to create simulation.

有個哲學概念是，一個夠先進的文明就能創造出模擬。

對啊，你可能之前回答過這個問題了。

I've had so many simulation discussions, it's crazy.

我有太多關於模擬的討論了，簡直瘋狂。

Because in fact, it got to the point where basically every conversation was the AI simulation conversation.

因為事實上，它已經到了幾乎每次對話都是 AI 模擬對話的地步。

And my brother and I finally agreed that we would ban such conversations if we were ever in a hot tub.

我和我哥最後達成共識，如果我們在泡熱水澡時，就會禁止這種對話。

So the idea is, right, any sufficiently advanced civilization could create a simulation that's like, our existence.

所以想法是，對吧，任何夠先進的文明都可以創造一個模擬，就像我們的存在一樣。

And so the theory follows that maybe we're in the simulation.

所以這個理論就接著推論，也許我們就活在模擬裡。

So much so it had to be banned from a hot tub?

到了一個程度，甚至泡熱水澡時都要禁止這個話題？

這不是什麼最令人興奮的對話。

I think here's, in my mind, like the strongest argument for us being in a simulation, probably being in a simulation, I think is the following.

我覺得，在我腦海裡，我們之所以可能身處模擬，最主要的論點，大概是這樣的。

That 40 years ago we had Pong, like two rectangles and a dot.

想想看，40年前我們有 Pong，就是兩個長方形跟一個點。

Now, 40 years later, we have photorealistic 3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously.

現在，40年後，我們有了逼真的 3D 模擬，數百萬人同時在玩。

And soon we'll have virtual reality, augmented reality.

很快我們就會有虛擬實境、擴增實境。

If you assume any rate of improvement at all, then the games will become indistinguishable from reality, just instinguishable.

如果你假設進步的速度是任何程度的話，那遊戲就會跟現實難以分辨，就是無法分辨。

Even if that rate of advancement drops by 1,000 from what it is right now, then you just say, okay, well, let's imagine it's 10,000 years in the future, which is nothing in the evolutionary scale.

即使這個進步速度比現在慢了 1000 倍，你就可以說，好吧，那想像一下，這是未來 10,000 年後，這在演化尺度上根本不算什麼。

So given that we're clearly on a trajectory to have games that are indistinguishable from reality, and

所以，既然我們明顯地朝著製作出跟現實難以分辨的遊戲前進，而且

those games could be played on any set top box or on a PC or whatever, and

這些遊戲可以在任何機上盒或 PC 上玩，或是其他任何設備上，然後

there would probably be billions of such computers or set top boxes.

可能會有數十億臺這樣的電腦或機上盒。

It would seem to follow that the odds that we're in base reality is one in billions.

看起來，我們處於基本現實的機率是十億分之一。

Is the answer yes, the argument is probably.

答案是肯定的，這個論點很可能是。

So the assumption then is that somebody beat us to it and this is a game.

所以假設就是有人比我們早一步，而這是一個遊戲。

No, there's a one in billions chance that this is base reality.

不，這有十億分之一的機率是基本現實。

That seems to be clearly what it suggests.

And actually, arguably we should hope that that's true, because otherwise, if civilization stops advancing, then that may be due to some calamitous event that erases civilization.

而且實際上，可以說我們應該希望這是真的，因為不然的話，如果文明停止進步，那可能是因為某個毀滅文明的災難性事件。

So maybe we should be hopeful that this is a simulation, because otherwise.

所以也許我們應該希望這是一個模擬，因為不然的話。

Well, otherwise, either we're going to create simulations that are indistinguishable from reality, or civilization will cease to exist.

嗯，不然的話，我們將會創造出與現實無法區分的模擬，或者文明將不復存在。