Name: 俄羅斯與美國為何重啟軍事對話？DW新聞 (Why Russia and US seem willing to coordinate again on military dialogue | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-02-05T17:20:07.000Z
Duration: 11 min 50 s

情態副詞

The New START nuclear arms treaty between Russia and the US has expired, technically leaving both countries free to develop nuclear weapons without limits.

俄羅斯和美國之間的新戰略武器裁減條約已經過期，技術上來說，這讓兩國都能不受限制地發展核武器。

The United States has refused an offer by Russia's Vladimir Putin to extend warhead limits and says that any new deal would have to include China.

美國拒絕了俄羅斯總統普丁延長彈頭限制的提議，並表示任何新的協議都必須包含中國。

Beijing has rejected calls to enter the talks.

北京方面已拒絕參與談判的呼籲。

At this moment, experts warn China's nuclear arsenal has been growing faster than any other country's.

此時此刻，專家警告中國的核武庫正在以比其他任何國家都快的速度擴張。

New Start was signed in 2010 by then US President Barack Obama and then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

新戰略武器裁減條約是由當時的美國總統歐巴馬和俄羅斯總統麥維德夫於2010年簽署的。

Russia and the US control more than 80% of the world's nuclear warheads.

俄羅斯和美國控制著全球超過80%的核彈頭。

But the absence of any treaty is prompting fears of a new arms race.

然而，任何條約的缺失正引發對新一輪軍備競賽的擔憂。

Germany's Foreign Minister Johann Vadeful has expressed concern and urged China to get involved.

德國外交部長Johann Vadeful對此表示關切，並敦促中國參與進來。

DW's Chief International Editor Richard Walker is currently traveling with the minister and joins us from Brunei.

DW首席國際編輯Richard Walker目前正隨同部長出訪，並從汶萊加入我們。

Richard, what's Vadaful's main message to China on this issue?

Richard，Vadaful部長對中國在這個問題上的主要訊息是什麼？

So I put a question to the Foreign Minister at a press conference that took place in Canberra in Australia earlier today, asking him what he saw as the implications of this arms control treaty running out and particularly the implications with a view to China, which as you mentioned is rapidly expanding its own nuclear forces even though it still remains well behind Russia and the US And I think it was quite an unusually stark message from va de pool really saying to the Chinese, you always say that you're committed to multilateralism.

所以我在今天稍早於澳洲坎培拉舉行的記者會上問了外交部長，他認為這份軍備控制條約到期有什麼影響，特別是考量到中國，正如你所提到的，中國正快速擴張自己的核武力量，儘管它仍然遠遠落後於俄羅斯和美國。我認為這是 Vadaful部長一個相當不同尋常、直白的訊息，他告訴中國，你們總是說自己致力於多邊主義。

Well prove it by engaging in arms control talks with the Russians and the Americans.

那就請你們與俄羅斯和美國進行軍備控制談判來證明這一點。

Now the Chinese have always said essentially we have so few and the estimate is currently around 600 nuclear warheads.

中國一直以來的說法是，我們的核彈頭數量很少，目前估計大約有 600 枚。

While the Russians and the Americans under new start they had 1550 deployed nuclear warheads each, although they're actually had a few thousand more in kind of long term storage.

而俄羅斯和美國根據《新削減戰略武器條約》，各有 1550 枚已部署核彈頭，儘管他們實際上還有幾千枚處於長期儲存狀態。

The Chinese position had always been, well we're so far behind you guys, why should we even talk to you about arms control?

中國的立場一直都是，我們跟你們的差距這麼大，為什麼還要跟你們談軍備控制？

What are at this point the prospects for a new nuclear deal?

目前，新的核協議的前景如何？

Yeah, well, I mean this is extremely uncertain.

是的，嗯，這個問題非常不確定。

So if we look at the US and Russia first of all, so they're level pegging on this level of 1,550 each.

所以，如果我們首先看美國和俄羅斯，他們在這方面勢均力敵，各有 1550 枚。

The Americans obviously want the Chinese to get involved, but

美國顯然希望中國參與進來，但是

if the Chinese keep saying, well we don't want to get involved, then there's a very strong motivation for the Americans to do what's called up loading.

如果中國一直說，我們不想參與，那麼美國就會很有動機去做所謂的擴充（彈頭數量）。

So to take more of those warheads than it has out of storage and actually put them onto missiles and other what are called delivery systems.

也就是說，把更多儲存的彈頭放到飛彈和其他所謂的運載系統上。

Now that if that does take place, then that is the kind of move that there are worries out there that that could cause an armed arms race.

如果這樣做的話，大家會擔心這可能會引發一場軍備競賽。

With the Russians then following suit and with the Chinese then thinking, well, you guys have so many more nuclear weapons, we're going to ramp up our expansion still further.

俄羅斯接著也會跟進，而中國則會想，你們擁有的核武器這麼多，我們要進一步擴充。

And you get into what's called in the lingo an action reaction cycle, with each side thinking we have to react to what the other side is doing.

然後就會進入所謂的「行動反應循環」，雙方都覺得必須對對方的行動做出反應。

And because there are three players here, it would be that much more difficult to come up with a stable solution, essentially.

因為這裡有三個玩家，基本上要達成一個穩定的解決方案就會更加困難。

One reason being that the United States thinks, well, we have to have nuclear weapons to target, not just Russia's nuclear weapons, but

其中一個原因是美國認為，我們必須擁有核武器來瞄準，不僅是俄羅斯的核武器，還有

So the United States will always have this feeling that it has to have more nuclear weapons than either Russia or China put together.

所以美國總會覺得，他們擁有的核武器必須比俄羅斯或中國加起來的還要多。

And the Russians and the Chinese very unlikely to accept that.

而俄羅斯和中國不太可能接受。

So this is what's driving this sense that there's a very, very significant risk that we're going to enter into an arms race dynamic between these three powers that would be much harder to limit with classic forms of arms control than the last arms race that took place in the last century.

這就是為什麼大家會覺得，我們很有可能進入一個三強之間的軍備競賽，而且這個軍備競賽會比上個世紀的軍備競賽更難用傳統的軍備控制方式來限制。

That was GW's chief international editor, Richard Walker.

這是GW的首席國際編輯Richard Walker。

Ukraine and Russia have ended a round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi with both sides welcoming the negotiations as productive.

烏克蘭和俄羅斯在阿布達比結束了一輪和平談判，雙方都認為談判富有成效。

US Mediator Steve Witkoff says the warring parties have each agreed to exchange more than 300 prisoners, but

美國調解人Steve Witkoff表示，交戰雙方同意交換超過300名囚犯，但

In the run up to the talks, Russia launched fresh attacks on Ukraine, on civilians and vital national infrastructure.

在談判前夕，俄羅斯對烏克蘭、平民和重要的國家基礎設施發動了新的攻擊。

Russia keeps hitting Ukrainian cities even as talks continue.

俄羅斯在談判持續進行的同時，仍持續攻擊烏克蘭城市。

Overnight, Russian drones slammed into several districts in Kyiv.

一夜之間，俄羅斯無人機襲擊了基輔的幾個區。

At least two elderly women were injured and multiple apartment blocks left shattered.

至少有兩名老婦人受傷，多棟公寓樓被摧毀。

I heard the glass smash and the door slammed in Abu Dhabi.

我聽到玻璃破碎和門砰地關上的聲音，地點在阿布達比。

A Ukrainian diplomat called the talks with US Mediation productive.

一位烏克蘭外交官稱與美國調解人的會談富有成效。

A Moscow envoy said progress has been made in the negotiations over ending the country's war in Ukraine.

一位莫斯科特使表示，關於結束該國在烏克蘭的戰爭的談判已取得進展。

And President Zelensky announced negotiation teams have agreed on another prisoner swap.

澤倫斯基總統宣佈談判團隊已同意進行另一次囚犯交換。

We expect the POW exchange in the near future.

我們預計近期將進行戰俘交換。

總體而言，烏克蘭的立場非常明確。

The main deadlock in the talks appears to be the future of eastern Ukraine.

談判的主要僵局似乎是烏克蘭東部的未來。

Moscow insists Kyiv pullback from parts of the Donbas region, a non starter for Zelensky.

莫斯科堅持基輔從頓巴斯地區撤軍，這對澤倫斯基來說是無法接受的。

Meanwhile, Russia keeps hammering energy infrastructure in sub zero temperatures, leaving millions to battle the cold and at the same time, concern over where the next attack will hit.

與此同時，俄羅斯在零下低溫中持續猛烈攻擊能源基礎設施，讓數百萬人必須對抗嚴寒，同時也擔憂下一次攻擊會在哪裡。

Let's bring in our Riga bureau chief Yuri Rashido, DW has been reporting on Russia from Riga since we were banned from reporting from Moscow.

讓我們請到我們駐里加的首席記者 Yuri Rashido，自從我們被禁止在莫斯科報導以來，DW 一直在里加報導俄羅斯的情況。

Talks in Abu Dhabi have been described as productive by both Kyiv and Moscow.

雙方都形容阿布達比的談判富有成效。

Well, this rounds of talks they call at least produced one concrete positive result.

嗯，這一輪的談判至少產生了一個具體的正面成果。

We have heard that both sides exchanged hundreds of prisoners of war, 157from each side.

聽說雙方交換了數百名戰俘，每邊有 157 人。

That's a big deal, especially since the last exchange was months ago.

這可是件大事，尤其上次交換已經是幾個月前了。

Apart from that, not much is clear which is nothing new.

除此之外，其他事情都不太清楚，這也不算新鮮事。

The toughest issue still seems to be the question of territory.

最棘手的問題似乎仍然是領土問題。

Should Russia get to the entire Donbass or only the part is it already controls.

俄羅斯應該得到整個頓巴斯，還是隻能得到它已經控制的部分。

Putin's special economic envoy Dmitriev, who also took part in the negotiations.

普丁的特別經濟事務特使迪米特里耶夫也參與了談判。

What's interesting is that he praised the Russian American economic talks and indirectly linked them to the Ukraine peace process.

有趣的是，他稱讚了俄羅斯與美國的經濟會談，並間接將其與烏克蘭和平進程聯繫起來。

Similar to President Trump who keeps talking about economic deals in exchange for security guarantees for Ukraine.

這和川普總統不斷談論以經濟協議換取烏克蘭安全保障的說法很像。

It seems though, Yuri, like not only Ukraine and Russia were negotiating there in Abu Dhabi.

不過 Yuri，看起來在那場阿布達比的談判中，不只烏克蘭和俄羅斯在協商。

The US has announced Washington and Moscow will re establish high level military to military dialogue.

美國已經宣佈，華盛頓和莫斯科將重新建立高層軍事對話。

That channel collapsed over four years ago.

這個管道在四年前就已經中斷了。

Why do the two sides seem to want to coordinate again on that level now?

為什麼兩邊現在似乎想在那樣的層級上重新協調？

This channel, Nicole, is pretty important.

and Russia coordinate on things like fighting international terrorism and to warn each other about major crisis and yeah, major crisis.

和俄羅斯在打擊國際恐怖主義等議題上協調，並互相警告重大危機，還有，重大危機。

Speaking about major crisis obviously includes the risk of nuclear war.

談到重大危機，當然也包括了核戰的風險。

這也是為什麼今天感覺很有象徵意義。

The last treaty between the US and Russia on nuclear arms controls expired today.

美俄之間關於核軍備條約的最後一份協議今天到期了。

From now on, the world's two biggest nuclear powers aren't bound by any agreement that limits their arsenals or requires inspections.

從現在開始，世界上兩個最大的核武國家，不再受到任何限制軍火庫或要求檢查的協議約束。

So in that sense, it's good if both countries want to cooperate militarily again.

所以從這個角度來看，如果兩國願意再次在軍事上合作，那倒是好事。

But for Ukraine, it's not great great news.

但對烏克蘭來說，這不是什麼好消息。

If Washington and Moscow are moving closer together, it means the US is stepping back from Ukraine.

如果華盛頓和莫斯科越走越近，就意味著美國正在從烏克蘭退縮。

And just hours before the Abu Dhabi talks began, Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping held a highly publicized video call.

而在阿布達比的談判開始前幾個小時，普丁和中國的習近平進行了一次備受矚目的視訊通話。

Well, the official reason for that call was Chinese New Year greetings from Putin to Xi.

嗯，這次通話的官方理由是普丁向習近平祝賀農曆新年。

But it's pretty clear that there was more behind it.

但很明顯，背後還有更多原因。

She called Putin a dear old friend and openly back to Russia.

她稱普丁為「親愛的老朋友」，並公開支持俄羅斯。

Which only fuels speculation that China might play a role in the future peace talks.

這也只會加劇猜測，認為中國可能會在未來的和平談判中扮演角色。

She also pointed out that Putin's close ally, Former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had just been in Beijing to align positions on major geopolitical issues.

她也指出，普丁的親密盟友、前國防部長謝爾蓋·紹伊古剛到北京，就重大地緣政治議題交換意見。

He said China has long hinted it's willing to mediate in the Russia Ukraine war and even released its own peace plan early on, though Kiev dismissed it.

他表示，中國早就暗示願意調解俄烏戰爭，甚至早就提出自己的和平計畫，儘管基輔對此不予理會。

Too pro Russian as too pro Russian, we don't know what she and Putin actually agreed on.

太親俄羅斯了，我們不知道她和普丁到底達成了什麼協議。

But Shoigu's visa suggests Moscow may be sounding out some kind of Chinese involvement, though for now, that's still just speculation.

但紹伊古的簽證顯示，莫斯科可能正在試探中國的某種介入，不過目前這都還只是猜測。

以上是DW駐拉脫維亞記者尤里·裡切託的報導。