Name: 哈維說：別再「撈底」買股票了！ (Don't Go 'Bottom-Fishing' for Stocks, Harvey Says)
Uploaded: 2026-02-04T02:57:44.000Z
Duration: 4 min 12 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

情態副詞

So what do you do in the meantime during this financial eternity where suddenly there's a question about whether Main street gets some of the stimulus.

那在這段感覺遙遙無期的時間裡，當突然有人質疑主街（Main Street）是否能獲得一些 stimulus 的時候，你會怎麼做呢？

And frankly, Wall street is struggling with questions around artificial intelligence.

坦白說，華爾街（Wall Street）也正為 artificial intelligence 的相關問題傷透腦筋。

所以，雖然不想講得太過艱澀，但

one of the things we say, we want you to go up in quality.

我們說，其中一件事就是，我們希望你們往高品質的方向走。

So higher quality companies, good balance sheets, good stewards of capital, in addition to that, we don't think it's the time to go bottom fishing.

也就是說，選擇品質更好的公司，擁有良好的 balance sheets，並且是資本的良好管理者，除此之外，我們認為現在不是 bottom fishing 的時機。

Chart has to look good because a lot of these companies with positive price momentum, they do have better fundamentals.

圖表必須看起來好，因為很多這些具有 positive price momentum 的公司，它們確實有更好的 fundamentals。

So we want to marry higher quality companies with companies that the market's already rewarding, be it no matter what sector you're looking at.

所以我們想結合高品質的公司，以及市場已經在獎勵的公司，無論你關注的是哪個產業。

Is big tech still high quality at these valuations?

big tech 在目前的 valuations 下，品質還是很高嗎？

And I think one of the really interesting things is yesterday Oracle had a bond issuance.

而且我覺得一個很棒的點是，昨天 Oracle 有一筆 bond issuance。

I think they had a convert issuance that went quite well.

我覺得他們的 convert issuance 進行得還不錯。

There's been a lot of concern about hyperscaler, hyperscaler funding.

大家對 hyperscaler、hyperscaler funding 其實有很多擔憂。

And I think that put a lot of concerns, a lot of fears to rest.

我覺得這讓很多擔憂、很多恐懼都平息了。

Are you hopeful for the numbers we get from Alphabet and Amazon that this just continues?

你對 Alphabet 和 Amazon 的財報數字感到樂觀，認為這種情況會持續下去嗎？

I think the numbers in earnings season have been pretty good.

我覺得 earnings season 的數字都還不錯。

And you still have a lot of idiosyncratic risk.

而且你還是有很大的 idiosyncratic risk。

But the one thing I'm not seeing is not seeing this acceleration.

但我沒看到的是，我沒看到這種 acceleration。

And if you need an acceleration in the economy, you need an acceleration in earnings to really go down to that secondary and tertiary bucket.

如果你需要經濟的 acceleration，你就需要 earnings 的 acceleration，才能真正進入到次級和三級的範疇。

One thing we talked about is how much the tech trade has just changed.

我們聊到的一件事是，科技股的交易模式已經徹底改變了。

Hardware versus software within Max 7 as well.

I'm not sure we can even talk about Max7 as a group of stocks.

我不太確定我們還能不能把 Max 7 當成一組股票來看。

It just looks so different from matter to Microsoft and Apple has no place in that group.

它看起來真的差異很大，從 Meta 到 Microsoft，Apple 在這組裡根本沒有位置。

I don't know if it has no place, but you're right.

我不知道它有沒有位置，但你說得對。

The phrase that I hate and phrase a lot of people use coming into this year is it's a stock pickers market.

我今年聽到一個很討厭，但很多人都在講的說法是，今年是個選股的市場。

Every year it is always a stock pickers market.

I don't, I don't understand that phrase, but I think it is applicable here.

我不懂這句話的意思，但我覺得在這裡很適用。

Because idiosyncratic risk is getting bigger.

因為 idiosyncratic risk 越來越大了。

You're later in the cycle because the economy is not accelerating because earnings are not accelerating.

你們已經進入了週期的後期，因為經濟沒有 acceleration，因為 earnings 也沒有 acceleration。

You really need a good idiosyncratic or stock specific.

你真的需要一個好的 idiosyncratic 或 stock specific。

Can I just pick up on that phrase later in the cycle?

我可以針對「進入了週期的後期」這句話再多說一點嗎？

週期後期，還是週期比較後期？

So credit Spreads and you probably have seen this hit hit a low we haven't seen since Astri watched.

所以信用價差，你可能也看到了，這個低點是自從 Astri 觀察以來沒見過的。

The amount of issuance that we're seeing is, is low.

These are the things you see later in the cycle.

這些都是你在週期後期會看到的事情。

I do think the cycle will continue because I do think there's a lot of accommodation in the system and I don't think the monetary policy accommodation is done.

我覺得週期會繼續，因為我覺得系統裡還有很多寬鬆，而且我不認為貨幣政策的寬鬆已經結束了。

So what kind of returns are you expecting this year?

那你預期今年會有什麼樣的回報呢？

We've seen some projections for 7,800, 8,000.

我們看到一些預測是 7,800、8,000。

This idea that you can have, I continue to fuel this even amid some of the wobbles that we've seen recently.

這個想法，即使最近看到一些 wonky 的情況，我還是會持續推動。

Do you think that that's fair or do you think that it's going to be more of a churn to year end?

你覺得這樣是公平的，還是你覺得到年底會是更多盤整？

Our expectations for high single digits, it's 74, 74, 50.

我們預期高個位數，是 74、74、50。

And what we think is by the end of the year you're going to start looking to 27 and now you're going to start looking at a situation where it's beginning to decelerate.

而且我們認為到年底的時候，你會開始看到 27，然後你會開始看到一個開始減速的局面。

That said, with so much accommodation on the table, with the Trump administration pushing things in front of midterms, we could have a little bit of a melt up or a population summertime fall, I think.

話雖如此，桌上還有這麼多寬鬆措施，川普政府在中期選舉前推動各種事情，我認為我們可能會有點小幅上漲，或者出現夏季下跌。

So this is sort of the bipolar aspect of a lot of the conversations we have.

所以這就是我們很多對話中那種有點兩極化的情況。

Some people say because of the midterm elections you're going to get a melt up.

有些人說，因為有期中選舉，你會看到小幅上漲。

Other people say you could get a meltdown in certain names.

另一些人說，某些股票可能會崩盤。

I'm thinking in particular of artificial intelligence related energy types of projects, especially with the affordability crisis and how much you could crack down.

我特別想到的是 artificial intelligence 相關的能源類型的專案，尤其是在可負擔能力危機以及你可以多嚴厲打擊的情況下。

There's been questions around the bank's trade and what we've seen there.

關於銀行的交易以及我們在那裡看到的，一直都有一些問題。

你怎麼把這兩個想法結合起來？

So what we, what we're saying is I think in the first half you're going to have bouts of risk aversion.

所以我們的意思是，我認為上半年你會經歷幾次風險規避。

We've already seen a couple of bouts of risk aversion.

我們已經看到過幾次風險規避了。

I think people are really, really under coming into the year.

我認為大家在年初的時候，真的、真的低估了。

Underappreciate the macro and some of the macro concerns, underlying fundamentals are still good.

低估了總體經濟和一些總體經濟的擔憂，潛在的 fundamentals 還是不錯的。

We would buy any sort of 5%, 5% plus pullback.

我們會買進任何 5%、5% 以上的回檔。

I think we do get some of that right because expectations are so high.

我認為我們確實會遇到一些這樣的情況，因為大家的預期很高。

But at the end of the day, we think equities do go higher later in the year and there is a possibility for a sharp pop higher sometime, maybe in the summertime, maybe in the fall.

但說到底，我們認為股市今年晚些時候會走高，而且可能在夏天或秋天，會有個急漲的機會。