Name: 川普要重設聯準會？黃金白銀價格崩跌！ (It Started: Trump Will Reset The Fed - Gold & Silver Crashing)
Uploaded: 2026-02-03T18:24:07.000Z
Duration: 12 min 10 s

Donald Trump is about to reset the Federal Reserve.

川普即將重塑美國聯邦準備理事會。

This is the biggest change that is going to happen to the Federal reserve in its 112 years history.

這是美國聯邦準備理事會在112年歷史上最大的變革。

反身代名詞

Either it's going to break the US economy or it's going to break the Federal Reserve itself.

要嘛會搞垮美國經濟，要嘛會搞垮美國聯邦準備理事會本身。

Donald Trump just picked Kevin Warsh as the new chair of the Federal Reserve.

川普剛剛選了凱文·沃許擔任美國聯邦準備理事會的新主席。

On one side, it is impossible to imagine that Donald Trump just picked a person that is not a yes man.

一方面，很難想像川普會選一個不是唯命是從的人。

Because Donald Trump wants to see lower interest rates.

因為川普希望看到較低的利率。

That's why he has been attacking Jay Paul for the last year.

這就是為什麼他去年一直在攻擊鮑爾。

On the other side, if you look at the track record of Kevin Warsh, that's not exactly what Donald Trump likes.

另一方面，看看凱文·沃許的過往紀錄，這並不是川普喜歡的。

His track record is going to cost the US Government hundreds of billions of dollars.

他的過往紀錄將會讓美國政府損失數千億美元。

And I don't think Donald Trump is ready to see how he's going to spend almost a trillion dollars more money just to pay the interest on the US debt instead of continuing his agenda.

我認為川普還沒準備好看到他將如何花費近兆美元，僅僅是為了支付美國債務的利息，而不是繼續他的議程。

That's why gold prices are falling down, silver prices down.

這就是為什麼金價下跌，銀價也下跌。

It seems like it is going to be a completely new era for the US dollar.

看來美元將迎來一個全新的時代。

There are essentially two main ways the Federal Reserve controls the economy.

美國聯邦準備理事會基本上透過兩種主要方式來控制經濟。

Historically, the Federal Reserve has controlled the entire economy by raising or lowering interest rates.

歷史上，美國聯邦準備理事會透過調升或調降利率來控制整個經濟。

For example, back in 1980s, interest rates have been as high as 18 or 20%.

例如，在 1980 年代，利率曾高達 18% 或 20%。

Hiking rates really work to either bring down inflation or boost the US Economy because that' what makes access to capital either very cheap or very expensive.

升息確實能有效降低通貨膨脹或提振美國經濟，因為這決定了資本的取得是便宜還是昂貴。

And if you look at any business today, especially when we talk about large, huge businesses, all of them rely on debt.

如果你看看現在的任何企業，特別是當我們談論大型、巨型企業時，它們都依賴債務。

So if you can actually borrow money at a cheaper price, suddenly you see the economy being flooded with hundreds of billions of dollars.

所以，如果你能以更便宜的價格借到錢，突然間你會看到經濟中湧入數千億美元。

That is going to boost the demand and is going to shoot that economic cycle to cycle faster and grow faster and vice versa.

這樣會帶動需求，讓經濟循環加速、成長更快，反之亦然。

Which is why Donald Trump is so mad at Jay Paul that why can't you, for God's sake, just lower down interest rates so that I'm gonna see my economy growing tremendously?

這也是為什麼川普對鮑爾這麼生氣，質問他為什麼不把利率降下來，好讓他看到經濟蓬勃發展？

But on the other side, that much demand is easily going to cause high inflation.

但另一方面，這麼大的需求很容易就會造成嚴重的通貨膨脹。

But there is a second way to control the supply of money, and

但還有第二種控制貨幣供給的方式，

this is far more important, especially since 2008.

而且這個方法更重要，尤其是在 2008 年之後。

In 2008, the entire Federal Reserve completely changed.

2008 年，整個美國聯邦準備理事會徹底改變了。

After the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed fundamentally changed the system.

在 2008 年的金融危機後，聯準會從根本上改變了這個體系。

And now the Federal Reserve is just subsidizing the US Government.

而現在美國聯邦準備理事會根本就是在補貼美國政府。

Part of the reason that the US Government has trillions of dollars in debt is because there is someone else that is literally just printing money and giving it away to the US Government.

美國政府之所以有數兆美元的債務，部分原因就是有人在印鈔票，然後直接給美國政府。

So if the US Government wants to raise a few trillion dollars, the Fed can always print trillions of dollars.

所以，如果美國政府想籌措數兆美元，聯準會隨時都能印出數兆美元。

Buys the IOU that the US Government is issuing, and

that's how the government is raising so much money.

這就是政府籌措這麼多資金的方式。

And it's very clear at the balance sheet of the fed, the in 2008, the first quantitative easing happened.

在聯準會的資產負債表上非常清楚，2008 年，第一次量化寬鬆發生了。

And since then you can see that, yes, at times the Fed tried to shrink the balance sheet, but

從那之後，你可以看到，是的，聯準會曾試圖縮減資產負債表，但

overall it has grown since then from less than a trillion dollars to as much as $6.5 trillion.

整體而言，自那以來，資產已從不到一兆美元增長到高達 6.5 兆美元。

And here is where Kevin Warsh's perspective comes in.

這就是凱文·瓦爾許的觀點切入點。

He made it clear that the Federal Reserve needs a regime change.

他清楚地表示，美國聯邦準備理事會需要一場制度變革。

I think that inflation's going to still be well above 2%, because that's what the Fed's delivered.

我認為通貨膨脹率仍將遠高於 2%，因為這就是聯準會的成果。

I think until there's regime change at the Fed, until there's new people running the Fed, a new operating framework, they're stuck with their old mistakes.

我認為，在聯準會進行制度變革之前，在聯準會換上新的人員、新的營運框架之前，他們會被困在過去的錯誤裡。

And the fact that the Fed is intervening in the US Government and subsidizing the US Government by buying massively US Debt is something unprecedented as the only reason or the fundamental reason that is causing so much inflation in the economy.

而且，聯準會透過大量購買美國債務來幹預美國政府並補貼美國政府，這是一件前所未有的事，也是導致經濟中出現如此多通貨膨脹的唯一原因或根本原因。

So if we suddenly reset the Fed Federal Reserve and bring it to pre 2008 level, where the Federal Reserve is no longer going to buy so much US Treasuries, you're not going to see any kind of inflation.

所以，如果我們突然讓聯準會回到 2008 年之前的狀態，不再購買那麼多美國國債，你就不會看到任何通貨膨脹了。

And that's the difference between Kevin Worth and Jay Paul, because Jay Paul has always been pro quantitative easing.

這就是凱文·瓦爾許和傑伊·鮑爾的區別，因為傑伊·鮑爾一直支持量化寬鬆。

He was picked back in 2017 just when he started quantitative tightening.

他是在 2017 年量化緊縮剛開始時被選中的。

he prints more money and buys more US Treasuries than anyone else in the history of the Federal Reserve within a very short span of time.

他在極短的時間內印了比聯準會歷史上任何人都多的錢，購買了更多的美國國債。

And according to Kevin Worth, that's one of the main reasons why the United States has massive inflation in 2021, 2022, and

根據凱文·瓦爾許的說法，這就是美國在 2021 年、2022 年出現大規模通貨膨脹的主要原因之一，

we can see the effects of this high inflation even until today.

而且我們直到今天都還能看到這種高通貨膨脹的影響。

And that's why the Fed needs a regime change.

這就是為什麼聯準會需要一場制度變革。

在 2010 年推出量化寬鬆第二輪（QE2）時。

My colleagues, including Chairman Bernanke, who I mentioned, for whom I had great respect as a war fighter, he and my colleagues at the Fed decided that we should keep on doing it.

我的同事們，包括我提到的聯準會主席柏南克，我非常尊敬他，就像尊敬一位戰士一樣，他和我在聯準會的同事們決定我們應該繼續這樣做。

You can even say that the 2008 financial crisis made interest rates completely irrelevant.

你甚至可以說，2008 年的金融危機讓利率變得毫無意義。

Why lower interest rates when the Fed can subsidize the entire government's debt?

當聯準會可以補貼整個政府的債務時，為什麼還要降低利率？

So the US Government issues a piece of paper called a US Bond or a US Treasury.

所以美國政府會發行一種叫做美國公債或美國國庫券的紙。

It's called the US treasury because it's issued by the Department of Treasury.

之所以稱為美國國庫券，是因為它是由財政部發行的。

And then the Federal Reserv simply buys that bond.

然後美國聯邦準備理事會就直接買下那張公債。

Whenever that bond expires, the Federal Reserve is going to refinance it.

每當那張公債到期時，美國聯邦準備理事會就會將其再融資。

So the US Government pays back the debt to the Federal Reserve.

所以美國政府會把債務還給美國聯邦準備理事會。

The Fed will check that money, buys back the exact same bond, giving that money back to the US government.

聯準會會檢查那筆錢，買回一模一樣的債券，把錢還給美國政府。

So it turns into this never ending cycle of the Federal Reserve giving money to the US Government, increasing massively the supply of dollars in the economy which is causing that much inflation.

所以這就變成一個永無止境的循環，聯準會不斷給美國政府錢，大幅增加經濟中的美元供應量，這就造成了這麼嚴重的通貨膨脹。

If you abolish this system and go to the pre 2008 status, then sudden supply of dollars in the economy is going to shrink which is going to make the US dollar substantially more stronger.

如果你廢除這個系統，回到2008年之前的狀態，那麼經濟中的美元供應量就會突然縮減，這會讓美元大幅升值。

這就是為什麼投資人會立刻恐慌。

They're like, are we really going back to the pre 2008 level?

他們會說，我們真的要回到2008年之前的水準嗎？

Is Kevin Warsh really going to shrink the balance sheet to less than a trillion dollars within the next five to 10 years?

Kevin Warsh 真的會在未來五到十年內把資產負債表縮減到一兆美元以下嗎？

In fact, in one of the conferences last year he mentioned that if we are going to offer investors a framework to how we are going to shrink the balance sheet of the Fed, we are going to win the confidence of investors.

事實上，去年的一次會議上他提到，如果我們要提供投資人一個框架，說明我們將如何縮減聯準會的資產負債表，我們就能贏得投資人的信心。

Which is why you see that silver prices instantly crashed from $118 to as low as $84.

這就是為什麼你會看到白銀價格從118美元瞬間崩跌到84美元。

Gold prices went down as well to less than $5,000.

黃金價格也下跌，不到5000美元。

We know how much gold is there in the world and we know how much US dollars there in the world.

我們知道世界上有多少黃金，也知道世界上有多少美元。

We can't control much the supply of gold on one side, but

we can certainly control the supply of dollars on the other side.

但我們絕對可以控制美元的供應量。

And the fact that gold price so fast is because we've been dumping so much US dollars into the economy.

黃金價格之所以能這麼快上漲，是因為我們往經濟裡注入了太多美元。

Now if we're gonna start the process of quantitative tightening of pulling that money out of the economy and telling the world, dad, you gotta trust the US Dollar because US dollars are not going to be thrown just like they have been since 2008.

現在，如果我們要開始量化緊縮的過程，把錢從經濟中抽離，並告訴全世界，爸爸，你們必須信任美元，因為美元不會像2008年以來那樣被隨意揮霍。

Donald Trump has said that Kevin Warsh wants to lower interest rates.

والت دونالد ترامب曾說過，Kevin Warsh 想要降低利率。

I did not discuss it with Kevin Warsh, but

我沒有跟Kevin Warsh討論過，不過

I've heard multiple times that he wants to lower interest rates.

我聽過好幾次，他想降低利率。

I've been following him and I don't want to ask him that question.

我一直有在關注他，我不想問他這個問題。

Probably, probably would be allowed, but I want to keep it nice and pure.

也許、也許是可以的，但我希望保持得乾淨純粹。

I've been watching him for a long time and it's very difficult right now to be confident what exactly Kevin Warsh is going to do.

我觀察他很久了，現在很難確定Kevin Warsh到底會怎麼做。

He joined the Federal reserve back in 2008, and

他是在2008年加入美國聯邦準備理事會的，

he was through the toughest periods in the history of the United States when the United States was trying to bail out the largest banks in the country.

當時他經歷了美國史上最艱難的時期，美國正試圖救助國內最大的幾家銀行。

Then in 2016, he becomes the economic advisor to Donald Trump.

然後在2016年，他成為了唐納·川普的經濟顧問。

So Donald Trump personally knows him very clearly, and

所以唐納·川普本人對他非常瞭解，

maybe they have a very similar perspective about the US economy.

而且他們對美國經濟的看法可能非常相似。

And then in 2017, when Donald Trump was picking his pick for the new chair of the Fed, he was one of the people that he was actually considering.

然後在2017年，當唐納·川普挑選新任美國聯邦準備理事會主席時，他就是他考慮的人選之一。

So maybe instead of Jay Paul, we might have had Kevin Warsh.

所以，也許我們會有Kevin Warsh，而不是Jay Paul。

And if, if Kevin Warsh was picked instead of J.

如果2017年選的是Kevin Warsh而不是J.

Paul Back in 2017, maybe in 2020, we would not have so much quantitative easing that the Federal Reserve has done in 2020, increasing the balance sheet to almost $10 trillion from about $4 trillion.

Paul，那麼在2020年，美國聯邦準備理事會可能就不會有這麼多的量化寬鬆，資產負債表也不會從大約4兆美元增加到將近10兆美元。

But nonetheless, now he is finally the new chair of the Fed in 2016.

但即便如此，他終於在2016年成為了美國聯邦準備理事會的新任主席。

So will Kevin Warsh actually lower interest rates and shrink the balance sheet?

那麼Kevin Warsh會真的降息並縮減資產負債表嗎？

Or instead, he's actually going to do what Trump is saying, lower interest rates, but

還是說，他實際上會照川普說的做，降息，

close your eyes on the balance sheet and keep it the way it is?

但對資產負債表視而不見，就讓它維持現狀？

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川普要重設聯準會？黃金白銀價格崩跌！ (It Started: Trump Will Reset The Fed - Gold & Silver Crashing)

perspective

entire

massive

situation