Name: 房地產「超在地化」！REUTERS 深度解析 (Sectors Up Close All real estate 'is hyperlocal' | REUTERS)
Uploaded: 2026-01-26T17:21:48.000Z
Duration: 5 min 34 s

The real estate market is in the political line of fire, but is it a good investment?

房地產市場現在是政治的箭靶，但它還是一個好的投資嗎？

This is sectors up close and we're talking commercial real estate.

這裡我們要近距離觀察各個產業，而且我們正在討論商業房地產。

分詞構句

President Trump weighed in on the real estate market last week, signing an executive order to restrict institutional investors from buying homes.

川普總統上週對房地產市場發表意見，簽署了一項行政命令，限制機構投資者購買房屋。

About 3% of single family rentals across the US are owned by institutional investors.

美國大約有 3% 的獨棟住宅租賃是由機構投資者擁有的。

But the returns have been falling since many major American cities are oversupplied with apartments.

但由於許多美國主要城市公寓供應過剩，報酬率一直在下降。

Xander Snyder is senior commercial real Estate State economist at First American.

Xander Snyder 是 First American 的資深商業房地產經濟學家。

Santa, firstly, what brought about this situation?

Santa，首先，是什麼造成了這種情況？

How did American cities get to a situation where there's a lot of oversupply?

美國城市是怎麼走到公寓供應過剩的局面的？

Well, interestingly and somewhat paradoxically, part of the reason that a lot of these cities are at least near term oversupplied is because they were in such high demand several years ago during the pandemic.

嗯，有趣且有點矛盾的是，這些城市近期供應過剩的部分原因，是因為幾年前疫情期間它們的需求非常高。

People were looking for new space, cheaper places to live, and that shifted demand in the country.

人們在尋找新的居住空間、更便宜的居住地，這改變了全國的需求。

And that combined with very, very low interest rates, meant that developers were going to respond to that demand by building a lot of new apartments.

而且，加上非常非常低的利率，這意味著開發商會透過建造大量新公寓來回應這種需求。

所以這基本上就是當時發生的事。

Over several years we hit an all time or 60 year peak of apartment units under construction and now all of those apartments are being delivered to market.

幾年下來，我們公寓單位在建量創下 60 年來的歷史新高，而現在所有這些公寓都陸續推向市場。

So I say near term in part because I think that over time there will be demand in a lot of these cities to ultimately end up absorbing some of that new supply.

我說短期內，部分原因是，我認為隨著時間推移，許多城市最終會有需求來吸收部分新增的供應。

但這就是為什麼這一切都發生在現在。

It's because these are desirable places to live and the financing environment allowed for it.

因為這些都是宜居之地，而且當時的融資環境也允許這樣做。

Construction starts are falling now, aren't they?

開工量現在正在下降，不是嗎？

So you expecting demand in these cities to catch up with the supply?

所以你預期這些城市的「需求」會追上「供應」嗎？

A lot of the big major near term oversupplied metros still have fairly robust demand.

許多大型、主要的短期供應過剩的都會區，仍然有相當強勁的需求。

I mean, in terms of net absorption, which is just units being leased minus units being vacated, people still want to live in these places.

我的意思是，就淨吸收率來看，也就是出租的單位減去退租的單位，大家還是想住在那裡。

it takes time to absorb new supply, I mean, you can't deliver 500 units in one day and expect them all to be leased up in the same day.

新的供應需要時間來吸收，我的意思是，你不可能一天推出 500 個單位，然後期望它們在同一天全部租出去。

It takes time, time for demand to meet supply and the demand still there.

這需要時間，讓需求趕上供應，而需求依然存在。

So I think it's really a matter of time in a lot of these places for demand to fully catch back up and absorb that supply.

所以我認為，在很多地方，這真的只是時間問題，讓需求完全趕上並吸收那些供應。

And because starts to fall in, we know that future supply is going to be more limited.

而且因為開工量下降，我們知道未來的供應會更有限。

For investors interested in real estate, what will the impact be here of Fed rates coming down as they're expected to over the coming year?

對於對房地產感興趣的投資者來說，聯準會預計在未來一年降息，這會帶來什麼影響？

It means, of course it's cheaper to construct.

這意味著，當然，建造的成本會更便宜。

But are you also expecting Improved mortgage affordability will allow more of these renters to buy and perhaps reduce demand.

但你是否也預預售屋貸負擔能力提高，會讓更多租客買房，進而可能減少需求？

I think on the commercial side you're right that short term rates which the Fed sets more directly impacts construction financing rates.

我認為在商業方面，你說得對，短期利率，也就是聯準會更直接設定的利率，會影響建築融資利率。

Because usually in the commercial world those are some sort of spread over SOFR secured overnight financing rate.

而且通常在商業領域，這些利率是基於 SOFR（隔夜融資利率）的一個點差。

Whenever the Fed moves rates, that amount moves as well.

每當聯準會調整利率時，那個點差也會跟著變動。

But for more fixed rate mortgages, longer term mortgages, a lot of the times the spread it's better to Compare to the 10 year yield or the 5 year yield, because oftentimes even though the note itself won't have a defined spread, the bank's determining if this is a good investment relative to the 10 year yield.

但對於固定利率抵押貸款，也就是較長期的貸款，銀行通常會將其與 10 年期或 5 年期公債殖利率相比，因為即使貸款本身沒有明確的點差，銀行也會根據 10 年期公債殖利率來判斷這是否是一項好的投資。

So while the Federal Reserve may well keep cutting rates this year, I think it's entirely possible that the long end of the yield curve does not follow all that much.

所以，雖然聯準會今年可能會持續降息，但我認為長天期公債殖利率曲線可能不會跟著大幅變動。

And a lot of people are saying well, the 10 year has been range bound between 4.4.5.

很多人說，10 年期公債殖利率一直在 4.4 到 4.5 之間盤整。

我認為這種情況很有可能發生。

I think it's also likely or it's entirely possible rather than that the 10 year could go back up to 5% based on historical shapes of the yield curve, which I've done some analysis on.

我認為也有可能，或者說，很有可能，10 年期公債殖利率會回到 5%，這是我根據一些歷史上的殖利率曲線形態分析得出的結論。

But all of that to say I think it'll help in certain parts of the market.

但總而言之，我認為這會在市場的某些部分有所幫助。

But short term rate cuts won't necessarily make all financing cheaper for the commercial world.

但短期的降息不一定會讓商業領域的所有融資都變得更便宜。

Given the complex picture, where else should commercial real estate investors be looking?

鑑於這種複雜的局面，商業房地產投資者還應該關注哪些地方？

Is it time to invest in office buildings?

現在是投資辦公大樓的時機嗎？

If you look at the volume of office sales activity, sales transactions over the last year, in the fourth quarter and also in the third quarter, it's growing again.

如果你看看過去一年辦公大樓的銷售活動量，第三季和第四季的交易量又開始成長了。

What that means is that office prices have fallen enough to start attracting buyers back to the market.

這表示辦公大樓的價格已經下跌到足以重新吸引買家迴流市場。

That doesn't mean that all office buildings are good or all office buildings are bad.

這不代表所有的辦公大樓都好，或所有的辦公大樓都壞。

But I like to say that you can make a 20% occupied building make money for you if you can buy it for a dollar.

但我喜歡這樣說，如果你能用一塊錢買下一棟入住率只有 20% 的大樓，你就能讓它為你賺錢。

And that's essentially what's going on going on in the office market.

這基本上就是目前辦公大樓市場的情況。

Not that people are buying buildings for a dollar, but

並不是說人們真的用一塊錢買大樓，而是

that prices have adjusted enough to make more investment.

價格已經調整到足以吸引更多投資。

I think that's entirely possible in terms of the broader commercial real estate market.

我認為就更廣泛的商業房地產市場而言，這是完全有可能的。

I'd say it varies meaningfully by asset class.

我會說這取決於資產類別，差異會很明顯。

But when you're beginning to approach an investment thesis, don't forget about the supply demand fundamentals of your metro.

但當你開始著手投資論點時，別忘了你所在都會區的供需基本面。

Because ultimately how successful you are in raising rents in the near term and not having to offer concessions depends on the strength of the leasing market.

因為最終，你短期內能否成功調漲租金且無需提供優惠，取決於租賃市場的強勁程度。

And then, of course, recall that real estate is local, hyperlocal.

然後，當然，要記住房地產是地方性的，甚至是超地方性的。

So even if a market might be underperforming compared to the country, you might still have a neighborhood or a block that's doing very well where there's strong local demand.

所以即使某個市場可能不如全國平均表現，你可能還是會有一個表現非常好的社區或街區，那裡有強勁的在地需求。

I do think that since we're at the beginning of the next cycle, there are opportunities now if you're cautious and have diligent underwriting standards.

我認為既然我們正處於下一輪週期的開端，現在就有機會，前提是你謹慎並有嚴謹的承保標準。

That was Andrew Snyder of First American.

這是 First American 的 Andrew Snyder。

Don't forget you can watch More videos on Reuters.com.

別忘了你可以在 Reuters.com 上觀看更多影片。