Name: 核戰將如何爆發？逐分揭曉！ (How A Nuclear War Will Start - Minute by Minute)
Uploaded: 2026-01-22T17:18:48.000Z
Duration: 8 min 54 s

Mr. President, nuclear missiles will strike our country in 14 minutes.

總統先生，核彈將在14分鐘後攻擊我國。

But you're the only one who can authorize our nuclear retaliation in response.

但您是唯一能授權我們進行核武反擊的人。

And you've only got a few minutes to make a decision.

而您只有幾分鐘的時間做決定。

As you know, tensions have escalated rapidly in the past few days.

您知道的，過去幾天局勢迅速升溫。

Today's joint allied aerial defense exercise began just minutes before we detected the launch.

今天的聯合盟軍空中防禦演習，就在我們偵測到發射後幾分鐘才開始。

We assume the sudden attack is meant to neutralize as many of our nuclear forces as possible, but

我們假設這次突襲是為了盡可能地癱瘓我們的核武系統，但

Missiles are in the air and we can't shoot all of them down.

飛彈已經在空中，我們無法全部擊落。

Because intercontinental ballistic missiles are basically rockets launched into space before re entering the atmosphere over their target and releasing many different warheads higher and faster than anything you can send after them.

因為洲際彈道飛彈基本上就是發射到太空，然後再重新進入大氣層攻擊目標，並釋放出許多不同的彈頭，速度比我們能追上的任何東西都快。

Four minutes ago, our new infrared monitoring satellites detected 112 bursts consistent with ICBM launch from the enemy's inner territories.

四分鐘前，我們新的紅外線監測衛星偵測到 112 次爆炸，這與敵方領土內的洲際彈道飛彈發射一致。

For some reason, only 20 of their 80 underground nuclear silos seem to have fired.

不知道為什麼，他們 80 個地下核彈發射井中，似乎只有 20 個發射了。

So we suspect most of them were transporter erector launchers, you know, trucks with big missiles on them.

所以我們懷疑大部分是發射架運輸車，你知道的，就是載著大飛彈的卡車。

It's unclear why they didn't use all their silos.

不清楚他們為什麼沒有使用所有發射井。

They might just not work after more than 30 years.

也許是因為它們服役超過 30 年後就失效了。

Or they might be keeping them in reserve.

The fog of war is keeping many things unclear.

戰爭迷霧讓很多事情都不明朗。

Aerospace Command thinks the ICBMs are targeting our nuclear command centers, silos and major Air Force and Navy bases.

航太司令部認為這些洲際彈道飛彈瞄準的是我們的核武指揮中心、發射井，以及主要的空軍和海軍基地。

Ending this war before we have a chance to.

在我們有機會結束這場戰爭之前。

The enemy's strategic doctrine prioritizes military targets and our nuclear weapon systems.

敵方的戰略學說優先鎖定軍事目標和我們的核武系統。

But their secondary targets are our industry and infrastructure.

但他們的次要目標是我們的工業與基礎設施。

All refineries, power stations and deep water ports, all located near or in major population centers.

所有煉油廠、發電廠和深水港，都位於主要人口中心附近或內。

We won't know the exact casualty count for a few weeks.

我們要幾週後才知道確切的傷亡人數。

Deaths from the blast and burns may be a few million today.

爆炸和燒傷造成的死亡人數今天可能高達數百萬。

It's morning rush hour and there's not much to be done for people stuck in traffic.

現在是上班尖峰時段，被困在車陣裡的人們，實在沒什麼能做的。

People in major metro areas can't really evacuate, but

主要都會區的人們無法真正撤離，但是

emergency broadcasts are being sent out to shelter in place and away from windows.

緊急廣播正發送訓示就地避難並遠離窗戶。

Radiation exposure for intact population centers is highly dependent on the weather.

未受損人口中心的輻射暴露，高度取決於天氣。

Over the next week, we might be looking at dozens of millions of deaths by the end of the month.

在接下來的一週，我們可能在本月結束前，會看到數千萬人死亡。

For the next few minutes, we can still respond.

在接下來的幾分鐘，我們仍然可以做出回應。

We've got 1500 warheads across our silos, bombers and submarines.

我們在發射井、轟炸機和潛艦裡，共有 1500 枚彈頭。

The 400 in silos need to be launched now before they get taken out.

發射井裡的 400 枚必須立刻發射，以免被摧毀。

46 nuclear capable bombers on high Alert can be ready to take off in two minutes.

46 架具備核武能力的轟炸機處於高度戒備狀態，能在兩分鐘內準備起飛。

Though we need to transmit the order right away to get them out of the blast radius.

不過我們需要立刻傳達命令，讓牠們遠離爆炸範圍。

Of our 40 nuclear submarines, five are presently at sea.

在我們的 40 艘核潛艦中，有五艘目前在海上。

While they're submerged, they're undetectable.

牠們在水下時，是無法偵測的。

So that's our backup for a nuclear retaliation.

所以那就是我們的核武反擊備案。

If we lose our silos and bombers, we could try to use them to bomb out their remaining silo fields before they can launch them.

如果我們失去了發射井和轟炸機，我們可以試著用牠們炸毀敵方剩餘的發射井區，在牠們發射之前。

The sooner you commit to it, the better the chance we have of preventing a further exchange.

你越早決定，我們就越有機會阻止進一步的交換。

After our retaliation updates, we have radar confirmation that the enemy ICBMs have completed their burn and deployed their warheads.

在我們的反擊更新後，雷達確認敵方的洲際彈道飛彈已完成燃燒並部署了彈頭。

Our best guess is that each missile will Deploy at least 6 re entry vehicles.

我們最保守的估計是，每枚飛彈至少會部署 6 個再入飛行器。

Which is the part that carries a warhead back into the atmosphere during its terminal descent onto the target.

這是在終端下降階段，將彈頭帶回大氣層飛向目標的部分。

And with many more decoys on top of that, inflatable balloons meant to waste any anti missiles.

而且上面還有很多誘餌，充氣氣球，用來浪費任何反飛彈。

We're now tracking nearly 4,000 potential targets.

我們現在追蹤將近 4,000 個潛在目標。

Our anti ballistic missiles have been launched and will begin their intercept in another minute.

我們發射了反彈道飛彈，將在一分鐘後開始攔截。

We'll do our best to protect the capital, although there really is no defense.

我們會盡力保護首都，雖然真的沒有什麼防禦。

The enemy must have anticipated we'd launch our interceptors and pre detonated a few warheads at high altitude.

敵人一定預料到我們會發射攔截飛彈，並在高空預先引爆了幾枚彈頭。

That ionizes the atmosphere and creates radar interference.

這會離子化大氣層並造成雷達幹擾。

Our interceptors should still operate okay.

我們的攔截飛彈應該還是能正常運作。

They've had a 55% success rate in tests, but

他們在測試中有 55% 的成功率，但

never with this many decoys or with radar interference this intense.

從來沒有在這麼多誘餌或這麼強烈的雷達幹擾下進行過。

We might shoot down 50 objects, but there's no guarantee they're warheads.

我們或許能擊落 50 個物體，但無法保證它們是彈頭。

It looks like most bombs are going to get through.

看起來大部分的炸彈都會穿透。

This is our last chance to counterattack.

Our silo launch sequence takes five minutes.

我們的發射井發射程序需要五分鐘。

We have to transmit and confirm a launch order.

我們必須傳送並確認發射命令。

And the missile needs time to clear the blast radius of the incoming bomb.

而且飛彈需要時間來清除來襲炸彈的爆炸範圍。

You just need to enter the launch authorization codes and push this button to transmit them.

你只需要輸入發射授權碼，然後按下這個按鈕傳送。

You can't do anything else to save more of our people.

你做不了別的來拯救更多我們的人民了。

If you don't launch now, then this war will be over before it even begins.

如果你現在不發射，那這場戰爭就會在開始前就結束。

You understand this is our one chance, right?

你知道這是我們唯一一次機會，對吧？

Enemy civilian casualties are hard to estimate, but should be similar to ours.

敵方平民傷亡很難估計，但應該跟我們差不多。

Perhaps a few tens of million by the end of the month.

The total fallout from their attacks and ours might trigger a nuclear winter, potentially killing billions around the world.

我們和敵方攻擊造成的總體輻射塵，可能會引發核冬天，可能導致全球數十億人死亡。

But that might happen even if we don't Retaliate.

但即使我們不反擊，也可能發生。

I'm sure you have questions, but you have to give orders without expecting answers right now.

我確定你們有很多疑問，但現在你們必須下令，不能期待有答案。

With an attack of this scale, there's no guarantee communications or assets will be intact in a few minutes.

規模這麼大的攻擊，幾分鐘後通訊或資產能不能完好，都無法保證。

And in times of crisis, small conflicts can rapidly spiral out of control.

在危機時期，小衝突可能迅速失控。

Anything from small communication lags to sensor errors to just uncertainty in the fog of war mean that no leader will ever have a complete idea of what's happening as a crisis unfolds.

從小小的通訊延遲、感測器錯誤，到戰爭迷霧中的不確定性，任何事都可能讓領導者在危機展開時，無法完全掌握情況。

When tensions are high, accidents or misunderstandings can steer leaders, even those with good intentions to launch a nuclear attack, confused and with incomplete information.

在緊張局勢升高時，意外或誤解都可能讓領導人，即使是出於好意，卻在資訊不完整的情況下，混亂地決定發動核攻擊。

Yes, it's really just one single person who decides can literally make civilization ending decisions.

是的，真的就是一個人，他做出的決定可能會終結文明。

Killing hundreds of millions of people in the time it takes to watch a YouTube video.

在看一支 YouTube 影片的時間裡，就能殺死數億人。

This story is fiction, but the world came very close to this several times.

這個故事是虛構的，但現實世界曾好幾次非常接近這種情況。

In 1995, Russian radar detected a submarine launched missile and their nuclear forces went on full alert.

1995 年，俄羅斯的雷達偵測到一枚潛射飛彈，他們的核武部隊進入全面戒備狀態。

Except it was actually a scientific rocket to study Auroras.

結果那其實是一枚用於研究極光的科學火箭。

In 1979, US computers reported a full scale Soviet attack with only minutes to respond.

1979 年，美國的電腦回報蘇聯發動全面攻擊，只剩下幾分鐘可以回應。

Except it was a training tape being incorrectly loaded into a computer.

結果那其實是一捲訓練帶被錯誤地載入電腦。

In 1983, the Soviet Satellite Alert System showed five ICBMs launched from the US but it was a false alarm caused by sunlight reflected on clouds.

1983 年，蘇聯的衛星警報系統顯示有五枚洲際彈道飛彈從美國發射，但那是因為陽光反射在雲層上造成的誤報。

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核戰將如何爆發？逐分揭曉！ (How A Nuclear War Will Start - Minute by Minute)

inevitable

guarantee

crisis

scale