Name: 最新民調曝！民主黨在中期選舉前氣勢如虹！ (New poll: Democrats seize advantage heading into midterms)
Uploaded: 2026-01-18T17:44:09.000Z
Duration: 9 min 26 s

情態副詞

Brand new CNN polling giving us a fresh glimpse of the political landscape heading into this year's hugely consequential midterms.

CNN 最新民調，讓我們對今年影響重大的 midterms 政治格局有了新的認識。

President Trump, who will mark one year back in office this Tuesday, has been sounding the alarms about the prospects of a Democratic majority in the House.

President Trump 將在本週二滿一年任期，他一直對 Democrats 在 House 取得多數席位的前景發出警告。

And our poll suggests there is reason for his concern.

我們的民調也顯示，他的擔憂是有理由的。

Democrats have a clear advantage when voters are asked which party they prefer to control Congress, A big sign they are enjoying tailwinds at this key moment.

當被問及希望哪個政黨控制 Congress 時，Democrats 顯然佔優勢，這是一個他們在此關鍵時刻順風順水的重大跡象。

They currently have a 5 point edge over Republicans 46 to 41, outside the margin of error.

目前他們以 46% 比 41% 的優勢領先 Republicans，超出誤差範圍。

On top of that, Democrats and Democratic leaning registered voters are far more enthusiastic than Republicans.

除此之外，Democrats 和傾向 Democrats 的註冊選民比 Republicans 更熱衷投票。

66% say they're extremely motivated to vote compared to just 50% of Republicans.

66% 的人表示他們極度想投票，而 Republicans 只有 50%。

And that is a huge swing from October 2024 where Republicans were motivated by five points.

這與 October 2024 的情況大相逕庭，當時 Republicans 的投票意願高出 5 個百分點。

But it's not all good news for Democrats with our poll finding their leaders are still held in very low regard.

但這對 Democrats 來說並非全是好消息，我們的民調發現他們的領導人仍不受重視。

We'll break this all down and more with an excellent group of reporters this morning.

今天早上，我們將與一群優秀的記者一起深入探討這些以及更多內容。

CNN's Alana train, Zolencondell Young's with the New York Times and CNN's Aaron Blake.

CNN's Alana train、New York Times 的 Zolencondell Young's，以及 CNN's Aaron Blake。

So look, this is the latest in a series of data points that are positive for the Democrats.

所以你看，這是一連串對 Democrats 有利的數據中的最新一項。

They won special election after special election.

他們贏了一個又一個的 special election。

They over performed even when they lost in these races and now Trump's numbers are bad.

即使在這些競選中落敗，他們的表現依然出色，而現在 Trump 的民調數字很差。

Democrats have a five point advantage in the generic ballot.

在 generic ballot 上，Democrats 有五個百分點的優勢。

在 November 之前還有很多事會改變。

Are these early signs of a potential blue wave?

這些是潛在 blue wave 的早期跡象嗎？

If you look at history, this kind of advantage at this point in the cycle can lead to that.

如果從歷史來看，這個時間點的優勢可能會導致那樣的結果。

I would say a five point advantage on the generic ballot is not commensurate with a huge wave election necessarily.

我會說 generic ballot 上五個百分點的優勢，不一定就代表一個巨大的 blue wave 選舉。

We have almost a whole year before the election takes place.

離選舉還有將近一整年的時間。

The thing in this poll that I think is really encouraging for Democrats is that enthusiasm edge which we've seen dating back to last summer.

這份民調中，我認為對 Democrats 來說最令人鼓舞的是，從去年夏天就開始看到的熱情優勢。

The problem I think for Trump and Republicans right now is he is doing so many things that are testing the patience even of some portions of his base.

我認為 Trump 和 Republicans 現在的問題是，他做了太多事情來考驗他基本盤中一部分人的耐心。

You know, Greenland is not popular with his base.

你知道，Greenland 並不受他的基本盤歡迎。

The tariffs are not terribly popular with his base.

tariffs 也沒有很受他的基本盤歡迎。

Are people going to turn out for Republicans, for Congress if he keeps doing these things?

如果他繼續做這些事，人們會為了 Republicans、為了 Congress 站出來嗎？

And I think that explains a lot of why Democrats have this advantage.

我認為這解釋了為什麼 Democrats 擁有這個優勢。

Yeah, that swing in the motivation is just something Republicans had a five point advantage in 2024 about a motivated base.

是的，這種動機上的轉變，只是 Republicans 在 2024 年曾經擁有的優勢，他們有一個有動力的基本盤，當時有五個百分點的優勢。

And you mentioned the wave compared to past elections.

你剛剛提到和過去選舉相比的浪潮。

Aaron did just look at where the things were back in January of 2018 and January 2010.

Aaron 剛剛看了 2018 年一月和 2010 年一月的情況。

On this question of who should control Congress back then, Democrats in 2018 of January, they had a five point edge.

關於誰應該控制 Congress 的問題，當時在 2018 年一月，Democrats 有五個百分點的優勢。

Republicans 有三個百分點的優勢。

That was the Tea Party wave of 63 point 63 seats that Republicans picked up that cycle.

那是 Tea Party 浪潮，Republicans 在那個選舉週期贏得了 63 個席位。

Zolan, you were just in with the president interviewing him not too long ago.

Zolan，你不久前才採訪過總統。

I mean, at this point, I think one of the issues with the messaging of the White House is you still have this defiance from President Trump when it comes to these political vulnerabilities.

我覺得，就目前來說，白宮在傳達訊息上的一個問題是，總統川普對於這些政治上的弱點，仍然表現出不服輸的態度。

When we were in the Oval Office, we were asking him about one of the issues that Democrats have really seized on here, which is the economy and affordability.

當我們在橢圓形辦公室時，我們問他關於民主黨人一直緊抓不放的一個議題，那就是經濟和可負擔性。

And those answers, I don't think they're really going to excite the base.

而那些回答，我覺得不會讓基本盤感到興奮。

We asked him about the $2,000 checks, for example, that he promised Americans from his tariffs, the money generated from his tariffs.

例如，我們問他關於他承諾給美國人民的兩千美元支票，那些是來自他的關稅，也就是關稅所產生的收入。

And initially when we asked him, he actually seemed surprised.

一開始我們問他時，他似乎有點驚訝。

He replied saying, wait, oh, I did that right.

他回答說，等等，喔，我做對了。

He was actually surprised at those tariffs.

And then he pivoted to the checks that he said that would be going to the military.

然後他話鋒一轉，說到那些會給軍人的支票。

And those are things that they're of course going to try to campaign on.

這些當然都是他們會試圖拿來競選的議題。

When it comes to when that's your reaction to being asked about some of these vague economic promises that are supposed to be addressing affordability, an issue that obviously the base cares about.

當你被問到那些模糊的經濟承諾， supposed to be addressing affordability，這是一個 base 顯然很關心的議題，你的反應是這樣。

You were brought back to the White House because you ran largely on the economy and helping working class Americans.

你之所以被帶回白宮，是因為你很大程度上是靠經濟和幫助在職的美國人來競選的。

When that's your answer, you know, that's, that's probably going to frustrate many Americans, including those in your base.

當你的回答是這樣的時候，你知道，這可能會讓很多美國人感到沮喪，包括你 base 裡的那些人。

I think this poll, as well as some of those vague promises that he's made, it's a promising sign that the Democrats messaging thus far on the economy and affordability is starting to have some, some positive signs.

我認為這份民調，以及他做出的那些模糊承諾，都顯示出 Democrats 在經濟和 affordability 上的訊息傳遞，開始出現一些正面的跡象，這是一個令人鼓舞的信號。

And before you jump in, another data point of which Republicans could have concerns about is a Cook political report.

在你插話之前，還有一個 Republicans 可能會擔憂的數據點，是 Cook political report。

They put 18 House races that they are analyzing here, all moving in the Democratic direction, that is from everywhere, from California to New York, all of several states in between.

他們分析了 18 個 House 選區，這些選區都朝著 Democrats 的方向發展，從加州到紐約，還有中間的幾個州。

What's your reaction to all, all these, what all these pieces of data showing things pointing in one direction.

你對所有這些、所有這些數據都指向同一個方向有什麼看法？

I'll say this, they know they have a major problem in the White House.

我這麼說吧，他們知道白宮有個大問題。

And every conversation I have, at least privately, of course they're not going to publicly communicate this they know they have an issue and they need to get it in order.

我每次的談話，至少是私下裡的，當然他們不會公開說，他們知道自己有個問題，而且他們需要解決它。

What I found really interesting, actually

was when the President met a week or so ago now at the Kennedy center with a bunch of House Republicans and he kind of gave them this message, message.

大約一週前，總統在甘迺迪中心跟一群 House Republicans 見面，他給了他們一個訊息，一個訊息。

And this is the message I know he's giving them in their private conversations to this idea of, you need to talk about our successes, you need to communicate all of the great things I'm doing.

我知道他在私下談話中給他們的訊息是這個：你們需要談論我們的成功，你們需要傳達我正在做的所有偉大的事情。

And he's really putting the onus on House Republicans, of course, and Republicans in the Senate too.

他真的把責任推給了 House Republicans，當然，還有參議院的 Republicans。

But this was just a House Republican meeting.

但這只是一次 House Republican 的會議。

The problem is when I talk to people, a lot of the President's allies outside as well, they say so much of what the President is doing.

問題是，當我跟人談話時，很多總統的盟友，包括外面的，他們說總統做的很多事情。

And Aaron, you touched on this is actually getting in the way of that message.

Aaron，你提到了這一點，其實正在阻礙這個訊息的傳達。

Everything he's doing with foreign policy, a lot of the, you know, the focus on, on Greenland or the tariffs, but

他在外交政策上做的所有事情，很多，你知道的，像是對 Greenland 或 tariffs 的關注，但

also sometimes even when people are talking about Venezuelan and his language about wanting to run Venezuela, things like that they say are hurting them.

有時候，即使人們在談論委內瑞拉，以及他想領導委內瑞拉的言論，他們說這些事情正在傷害他們。

And that's something that the President, I don't think is fully kind of understood behind the scenes.

我認為總統在幕後並沒有完全理解這一點。

And the question is net asset or net liability?

那個問題是淨資產還是淨負債？

Is Donald Trump's presence on the campaign trail?

Donald Trump 是否會出現在競選活動中？

I think that's a question that I put to the speaker of the House, Mike Johnson.

我認為這個問題，我問了眾議院議長 Mike Johnson。

I asked him, look, you have purple Republicans running in swing districts, purple districts.

我問他，你看，你們有溫和派的 Republicans 在搖擺選區、紫色選區參選。

他們應該怎麼做來面對 Donald Trump？

And how do you feel about the fact that Democrats have an edge in the so called generic ballot?

你對於 Democrats 在所謂的 generic ballot 中佔優勢這件事有什麼感覺？

The generic ballot has Democrats up by about 3.

generic ballot 中 Democrats 大約領先 3 個百分點。

But if you look back at the last midterm, I think 2018 is a pretty good comparison.

但如果你回顧上次的 midterms，我認為 2018 年是個很好的比較。

They were up by three times that much at this point in the year.

那時候他們在這個時間點的領先幅度是這個的三倍。

我們對這次的 midterms 很有信心。

I'm absolutely convinced we're going to go to the majority of the, we have an incredible record to run on.

我完全相信我們會贏得多數席次，我們有非常亮眼的政績可以訴求。

You embrace Trump, your swing district Republican run with Trump?

你們擁抱 Trump，你們的搖擺區 Republican 會跟 Trump 一起選嗎？

These economic numbers are going to be off the charts.

People are going to be feeling very good about their incomes and their opportunity and their liberty, and

人們會對他們目前的收入、機會和自由感到非常滿意，

they're going to, they're going to reward Republicans for those policies.

而且他們會因為這些政策而回報 Republicans。

And in a normal election, when you have a president who's in this position, who's as unpopular as Trump is, you keep your distance.

而在一般的選舉中，當總統處於這種情況，而且像川普一樣不受歡迎時，大家都會保持距離。

You don't talk about him, you don't welcome him to your district.

大家不會談論他，也不會歡迎他到你們的選區。

But Republicans need voters to be excited about Donald Trump to have their base turnout at all.

但 Republicans 需要選民對 Donald Trump 感到興奮，才能讓他們的基本盤出來投票。

They have a problem where their votes, their base is very much focused on infrequent voters who don't necessarily come out in midterm elections, who certainly don't come out in these special elections that we've been seeing recently.

他們有個問題，就是他們的選票、他們的基本盤非常專注於不常投票的選民，這些選民在中期選舉中不一定會出來投票，更不用說在我們最近看到的這些特別選舉中。

And so they can't just kind of shove him to the side and say, well, I don't really want to be associated with him, because so much of their base demands it.

所以他們不能只是把他推到一邊說，我真的不想跟他扯上關係，因為他們的基本盤有很大一部分要求這樣做。

And another piece of this poll is on the other side of the aisle.

而這個民調的另一部分則是關於另一邊的黨派。

The Democrats, they have had rock bottom approval ratings.

Democrats 的支持率一直處於谷底。

They may have been doing well in these special elections, but

他們可能在這些特別選舉中表現不錯，但

their numbers are not good, particularly when it comes to how Democratic leaders are handling their jobs.

他們的數字並不好看，尤其是在民主黨領導人處理工作表現方面。

This is the question that was put in the CNN poll.