Name: 伊朗革命衛隊的關鍵時刻？ | DW 新聞 (A make-or-break moment for Iran's Revolutionary Guard | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-01-14T16:59:38.000Z
Duration: 18 min 51 s

程度副詞

US President Donald Trump has warned Iran that the US Will take very strong action if the regime executes protesters.

美國總統 Donald Trump 警告伊朗，如果該政權處決抗議者，美國將採取非常強硬的行動。

Rights groups say thousands of people have been arrested since mass protests erupted some three weeks ago.

人權組織表示，自從大約三週前爆發大規模抗議以來，已有數千人被捕。

基礎被動語態

One demonstrator reported to be in government custody is 26 year old Efran Sultani, who was detained just last week.

據報導，一名在政府拘留中的示威者是 26 歲的 Efran Sultani，他上週才被拘留。

His family says he may be executed today.

他的家人說他今天可能會被處決。

Rights groups say more than 2,500 people have been killed in the protests.

人權組織表示，在抗議活動中已有超過 2,500 人被殺害。

And Iran has threatened to strike American military bases in the Middle east if Washington intervenes on behalf of the demonstrators.

伊朗威脅說，如果華盛頓代表示威者介入，將打擊中東的美國軍事基地。

A likely target for the US would be the Revolutionary Guard, Iran's elite military force.

美國可能的目標將是伊朗的精銳軍事部隊「革命衛隊」。

As protests rage across Iran, a Kurdish activist tells DW exclusively that the elite Revolutionary Guard has fanned out throughout the country, stopping vehicles, searching mobile phones, stoking more resentment against the regime and its security forces.

隨著伊朗各地的抗議活動持續不斷，一位庫德族活動家獨家告訴 DW，精銳的革命衛隊已經佈滿全國，攔截車輛、搜查手機，加劇了民眾對該政權及其安全部隊的更多不滿。

The Guards are estimated to number between 150,000 and 200,000 active personnel.

據估計，衛隊現役人員約有 15 萬到 20 萬人。

They have their own army, navy and air force.

他們擁有自己的陸軍、海軍和空軍。

A parallel military whose official role is to protect the legacy of the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

一支平行軍隊，其官方職責是保護 1979 年伊斯蘭革命的遺產。

They're led by Mohammad Pakpour, who reports directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

他們由 Mohammad Pakpour 領導，他直接向最高領袖阿亞圖拉哈米尼匯報。

Bypassing the government and president, the Guards are largely insulated from the economic pressures felt by Iranians due to their control over defense, oil and gas, construction and telecommunications concerns worth billions of dollars.

衛隊繞過政府和總統，由於他們控制著價值數十億美元的國防、石油和天然氣、建築以及電信業務，是以在很大程度上不受伊朗人感受到的經濟壓力影響。

While ordinary Iranians suffer under sanctions, fueling more resentment against the Guards and the theocratic regime, the Guards have also dealt with Iran's proxy forces in the Middle east, the so called axis of resistance, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

當普通伊朗人在制裁下受苦，對衛隊和神權政權產生更多不滿時，衛隊也與中東的伊朗代理部隊，也就是所謂的「抵抗軸心」，包括黎巴嫩的真主黨、加沙的哈馬斯以及葉門的胡塞叛軍進行了交鋒。

Multiple countries have labeled the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization.

多個國家已將革命衛隊列為恐怖組織。

This has made them a prime target in recent years.

這使得他們近年來成為主要目標。

In 2020, a US airstrike took out the head of the Al Quds Force, an elite unit within the Guards.

2020 年，美國的一次空襲擊斃了衛隊內精銳部隊「聖城旅」的指揮官。

And last summer, Israeli airstrikes killed much of the Guards senior leadership.

去年夏天，以色列的空襲殺害了衛隊的許多高級領導層。

Despite those losses and and significant damage done to its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, the Revolutionary Guards have maintained their position.

儘管遭受了這些損失，並且其代理人哈馬斯和真主黨遭受了重大破壞，革命衛隊仍維持其地位。

Their closeness to the supreme leader makes them indispensable to the regime and makes them a priority target for any international intervention.

他們與最高領袖關係密切，這使他們對政權來說不可或缺，並使他們成為任何國際幹預的優先目標。

He's an Iranian American political scientist who teaches at the University of Tennessee in chattanooga in the U.S.

他是一位伊朗裔美國政治學家，在美國的查塔努加田納西大學任教。

Saeed, tell us more about the Revolutionary Guard and what's at stake for them in this upris.

Saeed，請多告訴我們關於革命衛隊以及他們在這場起義中面臨的風險。

Revolutionary guard, created in 1979 as a small militia, gradually expanded to the huge military and you know, later on to the state in a state revolutionary regard, as the videos out has, you know, economic branches, cultural branches, media, tv, security, intelligence, they are state in a state.

革命衛隊於 1979 年成立，最初只是一個小型的民兵組織，但逐漸擴展成為一個龐大的軍事組織，後來甚至成為國家中的國家。革命衛隊擁有經濟、文化、媒體、電視、安全和情報等分支。

And that's why, you know, the falling of the Islamic Republic is a falling of the IRGCs.

這就是為什麼，伊斯蘭共和國的垮臺，也意味著革命衛隊的垮臺。

They are the clergy and IRGC are the two sides of the one coin.

教士和革命衛隊就像一枚硬幣的兩面。

And that's why they believe that the dismantling of the Islamic Republic is the end of the irgc.

這就是為什麼他們相信，伊斯蘭共和國的瓦解，就是革命衛隊的終結。

If the theocratic regime in Iran were to fall, could members of the Revolutionary Guard, given how powerful you just described them as being, could they end up filling the power vacuum?

如果伊朗的神權政權垮臺，革命衛隊的成員，就像你剛才描述他們那麼強大，他們會不會填補權力真空？

If the Islamic Republic, if the Ayatollah Khamenei have been killed or taken out, and

如果伊斯蘭共和國，如果哈米尼教士被殺或被除掉，

there is no translation, the IRGC are powerful to, you know, to take the position.

沒有翻譯，伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊（IRGC）也很強大，你知道，可以接管這個職位。

But if the attack with the Ayatollah Khamenei and the IRGC high rank commander continue, then we will have a transition.

但如果對哈米尼教士和伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊（IRGC）高級指揮官的攻擊持續下去，那麼我們將會迎來一個轉型。

You have to remember when we Talk about the IRGC, IRGC has about 180,000 personnel from the rank to file.

你必須記住，當我們談論伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊（IRGC）時，它擁有大約 18 萬名從基層到高層的成員。

For us, this council of commandership of the IRGC is important.

對我們來說，伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊（IRGC）的指揮層很重要。

About 1,000 of the high rank commander that we have to think and we have to take care of.

大約有 1,000 名高級指揮官是我們必須考慮並需要關注的。

Other than that, most of these people are the Iranian from different social classes, belong to different ethnicities and that they can actually incorporate it with the Iran army later on.

除此之外，這些人大多是來自不同社會階層、不同族裔的伊朗人，他們以後可以與伊朗軍隊整合。

So just to clarify for our viewers, the IGRC being the Iranian Revolutionary irgc, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

所以，為了讓我們的觀眾清楚，IRGC 就是伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊。

So to clarify, it actually is Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

所以，說清楚一點，它其實就是伊斯蘭革命衛隊。

There is no name of Iran in their mandate or even in the charter.

他們的職權範圍裡，甚至章程裡，都沒有伊朗的名字。

So now this started, this protest movement started over the collapsing economy.

所以現在，這場抗議運動是從經濟崩潰開始的。

But the protests seem to be morphing into something larger in Iran.

但在伊朗，這些抗議似乎正在演變成更廣泛的事件。

What do you see as the main source of anger and discontent driving these protests?

你認為驅動這些抗議的主要憤怒和不滿來源是什麼？

We have to remember this protest is not an isolated phenomenon.

我們必須記住，這次抗議並非孤立現象。

You know, from 1979, as the Islamic Republic took the power, there have been several wave of the protest.

你知道的，自從1979年伊斯蘭共和國掌權以來，已經有好幾波抗議了。

Before that was Mahsa Amini protests from 2020.

在此之前是2020年的Mahsa Amini抗議。

November protest at the Islamic Republic killed 1,500 people in two days and so on and so forth.

2019年11月的抗議，伊斯蘭共和國在兩天內殺害了1500人，以此類推。

So there are a lot of waves of the protests for different reasons.

所以，因為各種不同的原因，出現了很多波的抗議。

Islamic Republic is a total security regime to cratic security regime.

伊斯蘭共和國是一個完全的國家安全政權。

Very politically repressive, culturally and socially stagnated economically.

在政治上非常壓迫，在文化和社會上停滯不前，經濟也是。

People have the Complaint about water scarcity, electricity, air pollution, very bad economic situation.

人們對缺水、電力、空氣汙染、非常糟糕的經濟狀況都有抱怨。

But all of these structural costs accumulated for the last five decades has led to the Iranian from different social classes, different group come to the street and protest Islamic Republic.

但過去五十年的所有結構性成本累積，導致伊朗不同社會階層、不同群體走上街頭，抗議伊斯蘭共和國。

They don't want any more to reform the system unlike two decades before.

他們不再像二十年前那樣，希望改革體制。

They just want to change the system because they realize this system is not able to provide even the basic need for the Iranians.

他們只想改變體制，因為他們意識到這個體制根本無法滿足伊朗人民的基本需求。

So the people are really unhappy that they're not having basic services provided.

所以人民對於基本服務無法獲得滿足，真的非常不開心。

The regime though claims it has a handle on the uprising.

不過，這個政權聲稱已經控制住了這場起義。

Briefly, if you can very clearly, when you shut down the Internet, one of the reason that you are doing it is trying to hide the atrocity and crime against humanity by killing at least 12,000 people.

簡單來說，如果你能非常清楚地說明，當你關閉網路時，其中一個原因是試圖隱藏殺害至少一萬兩千人的暴行和反人類罪。

But at the same time it shows that you are very insecure.

但同時這也顯示出你們非常沒有安全感。

You don't want people to understand what is happening in Iran.

你不想讓大家知道伊朗發生了什麼事。

Islamic Republic is in the weakest moment of history.

伊斯蘭共和國正處於歷史上最虛弱的時刻。

You know, at the beginning there was a news that Iran formed the United States.

你知道，一開始有新聞說伊朗組成了美國。

如果你攻擊我們，我們就會反擊。

But you have to remember when the United States took up Qasem Soleimani, the second man in Iran, Iran did not nothing.

但你必須記得，當美國擊斃了伊朗的二號人物 Qasem Soleimani 時，伊朗什麼也沒做。

When the United States bombarded Iran and destroyed Iran nuclear facilities six months ago, Iran did nothing.

當美國六個月前轟炸伊朗並摧毀了伊朗的核設施時，伊朗也什麼都沒做。

And you just can imagine six months later when they are very weak, this is just barking on the tree without any action.

你可以想像，六個月後，當他們非常虛弱時，這就像對著樹吠叫卻毫無行動。

Saeed, thank you very much for speaking with us today.

Saeed，非常感謝你今天接受我們的訪問。

Iranian American political scientist Saeed Golkar.

伊朗裔美國政治學家 Saeed Golkar。

And Farzan Sabed is an Iran expert at the Global Governance center in Geneva, joins me now.

再來是來自日內瓦全球治理中心的伊朗專家 Farzan Sabed，他現在加入我們。

How big a role does Iran's Revolutionary Guard play in clamping down on this protest?

伊朗的革命衛隊在鎮壓這次抗議中扮演了多大的角色？

當然，他們扮演了非常重要的角色。

They're the leading security institution in Iran, possessing not only military elements but also security elements throughout all of Iran's provinces as well as bigger security regions.

他們是伊朗主要的安全機構，不僅擁有軍事力量，在伊朗各省以及更大的安全區域也都有安全力量。

The Revolutionary Guards have headquarters which are used as centers to coordinate their response for the crackdown on protesters, including both intelligence as well as suppression on the ground.

革命衛隊設有總部，作為協調他們鎮壓抗議者行動的中心，包括情報以及地面的鎮壓。

And in terms of who's doing a lot of the actual killing.

而實際執行殺戮行動的又是誰。

I believe your report mentioned the 2000 dead figure.

我相信妳的報導有提到兩千人死亡的數字。

We have some estimates that are much higher, potentially as high as 12,000, although that that remains unconfirmed.

我們有一些估計數字高得多，可能高達一萬兩千人，不過這仍未獲證實。

Many of the individuals and security forces that will be committing those massacres and those killings will be the forces of the Revolutionary Guard, including full personnel of the Guards themselves, as well as components of the besieged paramilitary elements.

許多將會犯下這些屠殺和殺戮的個人及安全部隊，將是革命衛隊的部隊，包括衛隊本身的全部人員，以及被圍困的準軍事部隊的組成部分。

We have footage of from the protesters are on the ground doing a lot of the killing.

我們有畫面顯示，地面上的抗議者正在進行許多殺戮行動。

Anger is clearly boiling over in Iran among the Iranian population.

伊朗民眾的憤怒顯然正在沸騰。

Tell us a little bit more about this background on this anger toward both the regime and the Revolutionary Guard, because on the face of it, this uprising has been about economic inequality and years of stagnation.

請告訴我們更多關於這種對政權和革命衛隊的憤怒的背景，因為表面上看，這次起義是關於經濟不平等和多年的停滯。

One thing I assume, which I think is a bit of a misnomer for the media, is that these are presented as economic protests.

我猜測有一件事，我覺得媒體對此有點誤稱，就是這些被呈現為經濟抗議。

But going back to December 2017, which was the first of four of these major anti regime protests, what we see is that there will be a trigger.

但回顧2017年12月，這是四次主要的「反政權」抗議中的第一次，我們看到會有一個導火線。

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伊朗革命衛隊的關鍵時刻？ | DW 新聞 (A make-or-break moment for Iran's Revolutionary Guard | DW News)

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