Name: 哈利‧安騰談美國人對 2025 年生活的預測 (1998)！ (Harry Enten on Americans' 1998 predictions of life in 2025)
Uploaded: 2025-12-30T17:05:11.000Z
Duration: 10 min 54 s

Back in 1998, most American households still had landline phones.

回到1998年，大多數美國家戶都還有家用電話。

我懷念，我有點懷念那段時光。

And a new Internet search engine called Google.

還有一個叫做 Google 的新網路搜尋引擎。

When you would pick up the phone, you'd get knocked off the Internet.

你拿起電話的時候，網路就會斷線。

Cell phones and the Internet really started to explode into the mainstream, though.

不過手機和網路那時候真的開始大爆發了。

Pollsters dialed up Americans on those landlines to get their best predictions for the futuristic year of 2025.

民意調查員透過市內電話打給美國人，想預測2025年這個未來年份的結果。

Some of their guesses, surprisingly accurate.

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enton joins us now to break down some of those predictions.

CNN首席數據分析師 Harry Enton 現在加入我們，來分析一些預測。

You know, I will just note, I remember the landlines.

妳知道，我得說一下，我還記得市內電話。

Brianna，妳還是可以申請市內電話。

不過我還是可以幫妳申請市內電話。

Maybe that's what I get you for the new year.

或許這就是我新年要送妳的禮物。

But in terms of what Americans got right, you look back to 1998, you, you know, there were a lot of alien movies that were coming out in the late 90s, right?

但說到美國人猜對了什麼，你回頭看 1998 年，你知道，當時有很多科幻電影要上映，對吧？

You had Independence Day, you had Mars or Mars Attacks yet all these things.

你有《ID4星際終結者》，有《星際大戰》，還有其他這些。

And so they asked Americans, you know, will we in fact make alien contact by 2025?

所以他們問美國人，你知道，到 2025 年我們會不會真的跟外星人接觸？

The majority of Americans, vast majority, 2 and 3, said no.

大部分的美國人，絕大多數，2 到 3 成，都說不會。

Now, I know there are some really weird people out there, but

好啦，我知道外面有些很奇怪的人，但是

I don't think that they qualify as aliens.

I know some people think I'm from another planet, but I don't qualify as an alien either.

我知道有些人覺得我來自外太空，但我也不算外星人。

They would have to look something like this.

And while I think that's a good looking fellow, I don't think he shares that much of a resemblance to me.

雖然我覺得這位長得很帥，但我認為他跟我沒有太大的相似之處。

All right, Harry, so what do we get wrong?

好了，哈利，那我們哪裡做錯了？

All right, what is one thing we got wrong?

好了，我們哪裡做錯了一件事？

Well, this one actually surprised me, which was.

And a prediction back in 1998 for 2025 was we would do most of our shopping online.

而在 1998 年，有一個預測說到了 2025 年，我們大部分的購物都會在網路上完成。

The majority of Americans said yes, we would, 56%.

但事實上，正確的答案是「不會」。

43% of Americans got this right back in 1998.

1998 年時，有 43% 的美國人猜對了。

It turns out that most consumers still actually do most of their shopping in brick and mortar stores.

結果發現，大部分的消費者其實還是大部分的購物都在實體店面完成。

And more than that, they actually prefer it.

而且不只如此，他們其實更喜歡這樣。

So for all of the talk, you know, about Cyber Monday and all the shopping we do on Amazon and In fact, the clear majority of shopping we still do is in person.

所以，雖然我們常聽到什麼網路星期一，還有我們在 Amazon 上買了多少東西，但事實上，我們大部分的購物還是親自去買的。

And that means that back in 1998, we got that one wrong.

這意味著，在 1998 年，我們這個預測就錯了。

If you had asked me today, I would have gotten that one wrong.

如果你現在問我，我大概也會答錯。

I didn't know that most people shop brick and mortar.

我不知道大部分的人都是實體購物。

I used that Google, which they were inventing back in the late 90s.

我用了 Google，就是他們在 90 年代末期發明的。

Anything else that we were way off on back in 98?

98 年的時候，還有什麼我們預測錯很多的嗎？

Was there anything else that we were way off on back in 1900?

1900 年的時候，有什麼我們預測錯很多的嗎？

The idea that we would mostly or regularly that folks would live to the age of 100.

就是我們大部分人或經常性地活到 100 歲這個想法。

If we look back in 1998, 61% of us said yes, Americans would often live to 100.

如果我們回顧 1998 年，61% 的人說，美國人會經常活到 100 歲。

But now the answer is, while there are plenty of folks who live to 100, that really isn't anywhere close to being the norm.

但現在的答案是，雖然有很多人活到 100 歲，但這真的離常態差很遠。

That's the reason why, of course, you know, when we have stuff, stuff like the Today show, it's, oh, so and so made it made it to 100.

這就是為什麼，你知道的，當我們看到像《今日秀》這樣的節目，報導說某某人活到 100 歲。

Life expectancy is still at about 80 years old.

平均壽命大約還是在 80 歲左右。

而且我不確定我是否想活到 100 歲。

Although I will note, although she's not anywhere close to 100.

雖然我要說，她離 100 歲還差得遠。

The idea that we would clone humans regularly.

We haven't cloned a single human yet, and it turns out 60% of us got that right.

我們還沒有複製過任何人類，結果我們有 60% 的人答對了。

We said no, there would be no human cloning.

我們說不行，不會有人類複製。

Remember, this was right around the time we were cloning.

還記得嗎，這差不多就在我們複製的時候。

我覺得我們不需要複製任何人。

Well, rest in peace, Dolly the sheep, wherever she is.

安息吧，桃莉羊， wherever she is。

Are the Mets going to win a world series by 2050?

到 2050 年，大都會隊會贏得世界大賽嗎？

我想我們都知道答案是否定的。

不過我確實有兩個關於 2050 年的預測。

Number one, the Bills will win a Super bowl by 2050.

第一個，到 2050 年，Bills 會贏得超級盃。

And number two, on one that I think I put maybe a little bit more money behind, I do think that driverless cars, while they may not be a majority by 2050, I think we'll be seeing a lot More of them in society.

第二個，也是我認為我押了更多注的預測，我認為自駕車雖然到 2050 年可能不是主流，但我認為社會上會看到更多自駕車。

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哈利‧安騰談美國人對 2025 年生活的預測 (1998)！ (Harry Enten on Americans' 1998 predictions of life in 2025)

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