Name: 美國走錯路了嗎？Harry Enten 數據分析揭曉！ (Is the US on the wrong track? Harry Enten runs the numbers)
Uploaded: 2025-12-27T17:04:33.000Z
Duration: 10 min 36 s

Is the US on the right track or the wrong track right now?

美國現在走在正確的軌跡上還是錯誤的軌跡上？

程度副詞

New numbers out this morning offer a new snapshot of how Americans are really feeling about the direction of the country at the moment.

今天早上公佈的新數據，提供了一個關於美國人此刻對國家方向真實感受的新快照。

And the data cuts across party lines and seems to also cut across the map.

這些數據橫跨了政黨界線，似乎也橫跨了整個地圖。

CNN's Harry Anton is running the numbers all over the map on this for you, Harry, what did you find?

CNN 的 Harry Anton 正在為你進行全地圖的數據分析，Harry，你發現了什麼？

Look, you know what it was the NBC News poll came out this weekend and I saw this wrong track number and it just kind of jumped out to me because it was 66%.

聽著，你知道 NBC News 的民意調查這個週末出來了，我看到了這個錯誤軌跡的數字，它就這樣跳出來，因為是 66%。

And one of the things I always like, you know, Donald Trump historically has done better than his polling suggested.

有一件事我一直很喜歡，你知道，唐納·川普歷史上表現都比他的民意調查暗示的要好。

But this right track, wrong track numbers have generally tracked with what actually the country is feeling.

但這些正確軌跡、錯誤軌跡的數字，通常都與國家實際感受一致。

We see 66% there, more than three in five Americans who say the country is on the wrong track.

我們看到這裡有 66%，超過五分之三的美國人認為國家走在錯誤的軌跡上。

IPSO, 61% MU, Marquette University Law School.

IPSO，61% MU，Marquette 大學法學院。

74% of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the state of the nation.

74% 的美國人表示他們對國家狀況感到不滿。

And all of these numbers, all of these numbers that I could find were we're the highest percentage who said that the country was on the wrong track since Donald Trump took office.

而所有這些數字，我找到的所有這些數字都顯示，自從唐納·川普就任以來，我們有最高百分比的人說國家走在錯誤的軌跡上。

It's not just Trump's poll numbers, his disapproval that's going higher and higher and higher.

不只是川普的民意調查數字，他的不贊同率正在節節攀升。

It's the wrong track numbers that are going higher and higher as well.

錯誤軌跡的數字也正在節節攀升。

How has this changed since earlier this year?

這跟今年稍早相比有什麼改變嗎？

Think that the country is on the wrong track of the right track.

認為國家走在正確軌跡還是錯誤軌跡上。

Look, the clear majority of Americans thought that the country was on the wrong track at 58%.

你看，顯然多數美國人認為國家走在錯誤軌跡上，是 58%。

But you see 38%, a 20 point difference here.

但你看到 38%，這裡有 20 個百分點的差距。

What we've seen is a ballooning of this, a ballooning.

我們看到的是這個數字的膨脹，膨脹。

Now, you take the average of the polls, right?

現在，你拿民意調查平均值來看，對吧？

And now we're talking, well, north on average, where you're talking, 2 in 3Americans say that the country is on the wrong track.

現在我們說，嗯，平均來看，大概有三分之二的美國人說國家走在錯誤軌跡上。

Now less than 3 in 10Americans say that the country is on the right track.

現在不到十分之三的美國人說國家走在正確軌跡上。

And when we look at this back in the, going into the 2024 election, right, the election in which the Democratic Party was pushed out of power, this number looks a whole heck of a lot, this right track number looks a whole heck of a lot what it looked like going into the 2024 election.

而回顧 2024 年選舉，也就是民主黨被趕下臺的那次選舉，這個數字看起來，這個正確軌跡的數字，跟 2024 年選舉時看起來非常非常像。

This 66% looks a whole heck of a lot like that number going into the 2024 election.

這個 66% 看起來跟 2024 年選舉時的數字非常非常像。

So what we're seeing now is Donald Trump came into office, he was given the benefit of the doubt.

所以我們現在看到的是，唐納·川普上任時，大家給了他一個信任的機會。

We saw an increase in the right track number, a lot more like what we see when presidents are reelected.

我們看到正確軌跡的數字有所上升，更像是總統連任時的情況。

That right track has receded and that wrong track has gone way up.

正確軌跡已經消退，而錯誤軌跡則大幅上升。

All of a sudden, the American people aren't just turning on Donald Trump.

突然之間，美國人民不只是不再支持唐納·川普。

They are seeing the country he has taken the direction in and they are saying, you know what, this country is on the wrong, wrong track.

他們看到了這個國家他帶領的方向，他們說，你知道嗎，這個國家走在錯誤、錯誤的軌跡上。

So if this holds, what does this mean for the midterms you're already kind of alluding to?

所以如果情況持續下去，這對你已經有點暗示的中期選舉意味著什麼？

You know, sometimes you can follow along on the thread that I pull out and Kate pulls it out and tells the story for me.

你知道，有時候你可以跟著我提出的線索，凱特也會幫我講述故事。

I mean, look, Price party didn't lose House seats.

我是說，看看，共和黨並沒有失去眾議院席次。

Percentage said the country was on the wrong track, 46% in 2002, 38% in 1998, the 66% now the 66%.

說國家走在錯誤軌跡上的百分比，2002年是46%，1998年是38%，現在是66%，66%。

A lot of numbers on the screen right now who say the country's on the wrong track.

螢幕上現在有很多數字都說國家走在錯誤軌跡上。

This doesn't look anything like those midterms where the president's party didn't lose.

這跟總統所屬黨派沒有失去席次的那些中期選舉一點都不像。

The Republican Party is on track to lose the House of Representatives if the wrong track numbers look anything like they do right now.

如果錯誤軌跡的數字看起來像現在這樣，共和黨就可能失去眾議院。

So buckle up and hold on and we will see together.

所以繫好安全帶，抓緊了，我們一起看。

We're going to go for a ride out of the studio.

A flood of new data out this morning that could suggest more trouble for the US economy.

今天早上有大量新數據出爐，這可能暗示美國經濟面臨更多麻煩。

Unemployment rise rising to a four year high of 4.6% in November.

11月的失業率上升到4.6%，創下四年來新高。

The economy adding 64,000 jobs last month after losing more than 105,000 in October.

上個月經濟新增了6萬4千個工作機會，而10月則減少了超過10萬5千個。

Figures that we're only getting now because of the historically long government shutdown.

這些數字是因為歷史上創紀錄的政府關閉才剛出爐。

CNN senior reporter Matt Egan is with us now in this story.

CNN資深記者 Matt Egan 現在和我們一起報導這個消息。

Matt, it's a lot to sift through, but what stands out to you here?

Matt，這有很多東西要仔細看，但你覺得這裡最突出的是什麼？

Yeah, Brianna and Boris, a lot to sift through.

是的，Brianna 和 Boris，確實有很多東西要仔細看。

But this is a job market that continues to flash warning signs.

不過，這個就業市場持續發出警訊。

And the latest one is the unemployment rate, as you mentioned, went up to 4.6% during the month of November.

而最新的警訊就是你提到的失業率，在11月上升到4.6%。

I can't tell you what it was in October because for the first time in almost 80 years, the government did not release an unemployment rate for the month of October.

我無法告訴你10月的失業率是多少，因為將近80年來，政府首次沒有公佈10月的失業率。

And that, of course, is because of the government shutdown.

這當然是因為政府關閉的關係。

But when you look at the trend you can see that unemployment over the last three years is clearly moving in the wrong direction.

但當你觀察趨勢時，你會發現過去三年失業率顯然正朝著錯誤的軌跡發展。

And this is the highest rate in over four years.

而且這是四年來最高的失業率。

Now, we also learned that the US economy lost 105,000 jobs in October.

現在，我們也得知十月份美國經濟損失了 105,000 個工作機會。

Now, this has a bit of an asterisk because the entire job loss during the month of October was driven by the Trump administration's efforts to slash the federal workforce.

現在，這有點像是個星號，因為十月份的全部工作機會損失，都是由川普政府削減聯邦人力所造成的。

Even though some workers, federal workers took buyouts from the government earlier this year, they were still counted as employed until October.

即使有些員工，也就是聯邦員工，今年稍早領了政府的優退方案，他們在十月份之前仍然被計算為在職。

And when you look at private hiring that was positive in October.

而當你觀察十月份的私人企業聘僱情況，是正向的。

Now the better news is the fact that in November, the economy added 64,000 jobs that beat expectations.

現在比較好的消息是，十一月份經濟增加了 64,000 個工作機會，這超出了預期。

這顯示了今年每個月的工作機會數。

And you can see how bumpy the ride has gotten recently.

你可以看到最近這段路程有多麼顛簸。

In fact, we now know that out of three, three out of the last six months, the economy has lost jobs.

事實上，我們現在知道，過去六個月裡，有三個月經濟都損失了工作機會。

We just mentioned October, but also lost jobs in August, lost jobs in June.

我們剛才提到十月，但八月和六月也損失了工作機會。

So three out of six months were negative.

所以六個月裡有三個月是負成長。

That's after going about four years without any months of negative job growth.

這是發生在我們有大約四年沒有出現過任何一個月工作機會負成長之後。

And in fact, the economy is now on track for its worst year of job growth since 2020 during COVID Now, normally when the job market is healthy, you see broad based job gains across the economy, but

事實上，經濟現在正朝著自 2020 年 COVID 疫情以來最差的工作機會成長年份邁進。通常，當就業市場健康時，你會看到經濟中廣泛的工作機會增加，但

我們在十一月再次看到了這個情況。

A lot of other sectors continue to lose jobs, including manufacturing, which lost another 5,000 jobs.

許多其他行業持續損失工作機會，包括製造業，又損失了 5,000 個工作機會。

Brianna, that sector has lost jobs seven months in a row.

Brianna，這個產業已經連續七個月失業了。

I wonder, Matt, what is today's report say about America's affordability problem?

我想知道，Matt，今天的報告說了什麼關於美國的負擔能力問題？

Yeah, well, Boris, we got some disappointing news on that front as well.

是的，Boris，在這方面我們也有一些令人失望的消息。

This chart shows in blue price, in blue shows wage gains for consumers and in red it shows price gains.

這張圖表顯示藍色的是價格，藍色顯示消費者薪資漲幅，紅色顯示價格漲幅。

And we learned today that wages were only up by three and a half percent.

我們今天得知薪資僅上漲了百分之三點五。

Now it is ahead of inflation, which was 3% in September, but just barely.

現在它領先於九月份百分之三的通貨膨脹率，但僅僅是勉強領先。

And what really stands out here is the gap between wages and prices is narrowing.

真正突出的是薪資和價格之間的差距正在縮小。

字幕列表影片播放

美國走錯路了嗎？Harry Enten 數據分析揭曉！ (Is the US on the wrong track? Harry Enten runs the numbers)

essentially

average

negative

barely