Name: 川普38兆美元救經濟計畫 (你可能會不喜歡)！ (Trump’s $38 Trillion Plan To Save US Economy (You Won’t Like It))
Uploaded: 2025-12-25T18:24:05.000Z
Duration: 13 min 16 s

Donald Trump's 38 trillion dollar plan is insane.

唐納·川普的 38 兆美元計畫太瘋狂了。

to 不定詞

Its either going to save the US economy or turn every American into a fake millionaire.

這要嘛能拯救美國經濟，要嘛會讓每個美國人變成假百萬富翁。

Ever since Donald Trump has taken office, his decisions has been chaotic.

自從唐納·川普上任以來，他的決策一直很混亂。

On one side he is launching trade wars with China, India and every other country.

一方面，他對中國、印度以及其他所有國家發動貿易戰。

On the other side he is punishing American companies.

另一方面，他卻在懲罰美國的企業。

But if you give it a closer look, if you zoom out and connect the dots, you will find out that Donald Trump actually has a real plan.

但如果你仔細看看，如果你拉遠距離、串連這些點，你會發現唐納·川普其實有個真正的計畫。

It might not make sense at first glance, but

if you dig into it, you will find out that maybe this is exactly what the United States needs at this point.

如果你深入研究，你會發現這或許正是美國目前所需要的。

This is the graph that the White House published when Donald Trump has taken office.

這是白宮在唐納·川普上任時發布的圖表。

The the US GDP is growing by about 2% while the US debt is growing by about 4.8 to 5%.

美國的GDP大約成長2%，而美國的債務大約成長4.8%到5%。

At this speed, the debt to GDP ratio by 2034 is going to cross 117%.

照這個速度，到2034年，債務與GDP之比將會超過117%。

And this does not factors in intra governmental debt because if you do that, this situation is way worse than you can imagine.

而且這還沒算進政府內部債務，如果你算進去，情況會比你想像的還要糟很多。

The total debt to GDP ratio is about 121%.

So at this speed by 2034 it can grow to 140 or maybe 145%, which is a complete disaster.

所以照這個速度，到2034年可能會成長到140%或145%，這簡直是場災難。

This is the point where the United States is going to allocate more than 30% of its budget just to ensure that it does not default on its debt.

這就是美國將撥出超過30%的預算，僅僅是為了確保不會債務違約的階段。

And there are two ways to fix this problem.

The first one is to pay off the debt, which seems the most obvious way to do that.

第一種是償還債務，這看起來是最明顯的做法。

However, the United States is not going to do that.

Yes, Donald Trump attempted to do that by directing the revenues from the tariffs to pay off the debt.

是的，唐納·川普曾試圖這麼做，他將關稅的收入用來償還債務。

First of all, we don't know for a fact how much these tariffs are going to generate.

首先，我們無法確切知道這些關稅能帶來多少收入。

Today we have one tariff, tomorrow the tariffs are changing and nobody actually knows for a fact how much they are going to generate.

今天有一個關稅，明天關稅又變了，沒有人確切知道它們到底能帶來多少。

And secondly, the US national debt is so huge that it's simply not enough.

其次，美國的國債實在太龐大了，根本不夠。

And thirdly, the United States is in a competition with China.

Every dollar that you allocate towards debt payments and not towards growing the economy is giving China an edge.

你每分配一塊錢來償還債務而不是用於發展經濟，就是在給中國機會。

So you want first to win this competition, especially with AI against China, and

所以你應該先贏得這場競爭，尤其是在AI方面對抗中國，

then you can comfortably start paying off the debt.

然後你才能輕鬆地開始償還債務。

But we know that's never going to happen.

And if you can manage to grow the US economy much faster than the debt, then over time the debt to GDP ratio is going to grow.

而且，如果你能讓美國經濟的成長速度遠快於債務的成長速度，那麼隨著時間的推移，債務與GDP之比就會增長。

Yes, Maybe the actual size of the debt will continue to grow, but

是的，也許債務的實際規模會持續增長，但

in comparison to the size of the economy, it is going to be minimal.

相較於經濟的規模，它將會微不足道。

And that's the plan that Donald Trump is actually taking.

這就是唐納·川普實際上採取的策略。

Now, to understand how is that possible, we have to understand how the GDP works.

現在，要了解這怎麼可能，我們必須瞭解GDP是如何運作的。

Every dollar that is spent in the economy to consume anything drives the economy forward because the dollar that you spend is someone's income, which means that the economy has grown.

在經濟中為了消費任何東西而花的每一塊錢，都會推動經濟向前發展，因為你花的每一塊錢都是別人的收入，這意味著經濟已經成長了。

The more we spend, the more or faster the economy grows.

我們花越多，經濟成長就越快。

Investments is when a company decides to open a factory, it wants to open a new branch.

投資就是一家公司決定要蓋工廠、開新分公司。

Maybe there is a business in New York and they want to expand to another state.

可能紐約有家公司，他們想擴展到別的州。

Maybe there is a Chinese company that wants to come to the United States and open a factory.

也許有家中國公司想來美國開工廠。

China invests a lot in the United States, primarily in the US Stocks and the US Treasuries.

中國在美國有很多投資，主要是投資美國股票和美國國債。

So if you haven't started investing yet, then you're missing a lot.

所以如果你還沒開始投資，那你真的錯過很多。

If you want a step by step guide on how to start investing, I created a a full guide about investing that you can access right now for free.

如果你想要一個一步一步的投資指南，我做了一個完整的投資指南，你現在就可以免費取得。

The link is going to be in the description.

The course is going to become a paid course very soon, but

這個課程很快就會變成付費課程了，但是

for the very loyal subscribers and dedicated people who really want to learn, I left the course for free.

對於非常忠實的訂閱者和真正想學習的認真朋友，我還是把課程免費留著。

The government is the largest spender in the economy because it uses taxpayers money.

政府是經濟體中最大的支出者，因為它動用的是納稅人的錢。

The government is raising trillions of dollars and it's also borrowing trillions of dollars.

政府正在籌集數兆美元，同時也在借入數兆美元。

It is spending to build roads, bridges, schools and also maintain the world's largest military, which is why it's the main driver of the gdp.

這些支出用於建造道路、橋樑、學校，以及維持世界上最大的軍隊，這也是它成為 GDP 主要驅動力的原因。

Exports is what the United States produces and sells them to other countries.

出口是美國生產並賣給其他國家的商品。

So goods are going to other nations and wealth is coming to the United States and imports are vice versa.

所以商品流向其他國家，財富則流入美國；進口則是反過來。

When China manufactures something and ships them to the United States, then wealth is moving out of the United States to China.

當中國製造某樣東西並運往美國時，財富就會從美國流向中國。

So wealth moved out of the United States to China, which is why it decreases the overall gdp.

所以財富從美國流向中國，這也是為什麼它會降低整體 GDP。

So if you want to grow the GDP to fix the debt to GDP ratio, you have to play around with these variables to grow the gdp.

所以如果你想提高 GDP 來改善債務與GDP之比，你就必須調整這些變數來提高 GDP。

That's why Donald Trump has imposed tariffs to limit imports.

這就是為什麼唐納·川普實施關稅來限制進口。

If you slow down inputs from other countries to the United States, then the overall GDP is going to grow, but

如果你減少從其他國家輸入美國的商品，那麼整體 GDP 就會成長，但是

it is going to cause another problem, it is going to make foreign goods much more expensive in the United States because now there is an extra tax that must be paid, which means that consumption is going to go down.

這會造成另一個問題，那就是外國商品在美國會變得貴很多，因為現在多了一筆必須支付的稅，這意味著消費將會下降。

Yes, on one side you have reduced the size of the imports, but

是的，一方面你減少了進口的數量，但是

on the other side, you have slowed down consumption.

Secondly, if you want to grow the gdp, you want to grow your exports, but

第二點，如果你想讓 GDP 成長，就想增加你的出口，但是

to do that, you have to weaken the dollar.

要做到這一點，你必須讓美元貶值。

But part of the reason why so many countries have been investing in the United States is because the dollar has been strong.

但很多國家投資美國的原因之一，就是因為美元一直很強勢。

But if you want to manufacture in the United States, you have to make your currency weaker.

但如果你想在美國製造，你就必須讓你的貨幣變弱。

But it is going to cause a very serious problem.

但這將會造成一個非常嚴重的問題。

It is going to make it unattractive to invest in the United States.

這會讓投資美國變得沒有吸引力。

Well, some factories might come back to the United States.

嗯，有些工廠可能會回到美國。

If you're a huge Japanese pension fund that invests in the United States debt, for example, for your real returns are going to go down even if nothing absolutely changes.

舉例來說，如果你是一個龐大的日本退休基金，投資美國債務，即使什麼都沒變，你的實際報酬也會下降。

Imagine the exchange rate between Japan and the United States is 1 to 100.

想像一下日本和美國之間的匯率是 1 比 100。

So a single dollar equals to 100 Japanese yen.

And the Japanese yen earns $1 annually by investing in the U.S. treasury.

而日本的日圓透過投資美國國債，每年可以賺取 1 美元。

This is just a hypothetical example for you to understand.

這只是個假設的例子，讓大家瞭解。

So the Japanese pension fund earned $1 in the United States, brought it back to Japan and turned it to Japanese yen, and

所以日本的退休基金在美國賺了 1 美元，帶回日本換成日圓，

Now, if the dollar weakens by 50%, for example, that means that now a single dollar will equal to 50 Japanese yen.

現在，如果美元貶值 50%，舉例來說，這表示現在 1 美元等於 50 日圓。

And the pension fund that earned a dollar from the United States has converted that dollar into yen, now has 50 yen.

而從美國賺到 1 美元的退休基金，把這 1 美元換成日圓後，現在只剩下 50 日圓。

So previously they used to make 100 yen, but now they make 50 yen.

所以他們以前可以賺到 100 日圓，但現在只賺到 50 日圓。

So their real returns have dropped by 50%, which means that it is unattractive to invest in the United States, which means that they more investments in the US which could actually increase the cost of borrowing for the United States.

所以他們的實質報酬下降了 50%，這意味著投資美國變得沒有吸引力，這也意味著他們可能會減少對美國的投資，這實際上會增加美國的借貸成本。

So that will limit foreign investment in the United States.

所以這會限制外國對美國的投資。

And that's why every single time Donald Trump has signed a trade deal with all of these countries, part of it was that they have to commit to invest in the United States.

這也是為什麼每次唐納·川普和這些國家簽署貿易協定時，其中一部分就是他們必須承諾投資美國。

是的，你必須支付 10% 的關稅。

And that could limit consumption in the United States of foreign goods.

這可能會限制美國對外國商品的消費。

But you have to continue investing in the United States.

So with Japan, Japan committed to invest $550 billion in the U.S.

所以日本承諾投資美國 5500 億美元。

the European Union, the exact same story.

There is a 15% Charlie from the EU, but they will also invest around 500 to $700 billion.

歐盟有 15% 的查理，但他們也會投資約 5000 到 7000 億美元。

But to weaken the dollar, you have to lower interest rates.

但要讓美元貶值，你必須降低利率。

That will increase the supply of dollars in the market, which is going to weaken the currency.

這將增加市場上的美元供應，進而使貨幣貶值。

But a weak currency means higher consumption, which is going to grow the overall gdp.

但貨幣疲軟意味著消費增加，這將帶動整體 GDP 成長。

But higher consumption also means higher inflation.

但消費增加也意味著通膨上升。

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川普38兆美元救經濟計畫 (你可能會不喜歡)！ (Trump’s $38 Trillion Plan To Save US Economy (You Won’t Like It))

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