Name: 揭密關鍵礦物新戰場！DW新聞 (Inside the new battleground for critical minerals | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-11-29T17:04:16.000Z
Duration: 13 min 42 s

There's that growing realization that Africa has the leverage, Africa has the minerals.

大家越來越意識到，非洲擁有籌碼，擁有礦產。

In terms of data, before we go to perception, Europe is still the biggest trading partner of Africa and also the biggest investor in Africa.

在數據方面，在我們談論觀感之前，歐洲仍然是歐洲最大的貿易夥伴，也是歐洲最大的投資者。

But the Chinese are perceived to be not interested.

In terms of values, then they are transactional.

在價值觀方面，他們是交易導向的。

They like to have a deal and deliver on the deal and ask for the next deal.

他們喜歡達成協議，履行協議，然後尋求下一個協議。

Africa, home to huge reserves of the raw materials used to make everything from smartphones and electric cars to wind turbines, is at the forefront of the global race for critical minerals.

非洲擁有製造從智慧型手機、電動汽車到風力渦輪機等各種產品所需的龐大原物料儲備，正處於全球關鍵礦產競賽的最前線。

As foreign investors come knocking on the door, the question is, who makes the best business partner?

隨著外國投資者敲門，問題是，誰是最好的商業夥伴？

To explore this, I'm joined by James Shikwati, a Kenyan economist and the author of research on African perceptions of international investors.

為了探討這個問題，我請到了 James Shikwati，他是一位肯亞經濟學家，也是關於非洲觀感研究的作者。

These critical minerals are of huge geopolitical importance, potentially given giving African leaders a large degree of leverage when it comes to foreign investment.

這些關鍵礦產具有巨大的地緣政治重要性，可能讓非洲領導人在外國投資方面擁有很大的籌碼。

I would say, first of all is that growing realization that Africa has the leverage, Africa has the minerals and more.

我會說，首先是越來越多人意識到非洲擁有籌碼，擁有礦產，還有更多。

So, of course, distributed in different regions.

所以，當然，這些礦產分佈在不同的地區。

We know Democratic Republic of Congo dominates in terms of the offer for these minerals and South Africa.

我們知道剛果民主共和國在這些礦產的供應方面佔主導地位，南非也是。

And so what has happened is that jointly through the African Union, African countries have come up with a policy where they are pushing for at least 10% value addition of minerals to oppose the traditional model that used to be just getting rocks out of Africa and getting finished products back to the continent.

是以，透過非洲聯盟，非洲國家共同制定了一項政策，要求至少有 10% 的礦產增值，以反對過去那種僅僅將礦產運出非洲，再將成品運回非洲大陸的傳統模式。

That's very interesting and that does touch upon my next point because of course, extraction is one thing, but

這非常有趣，這也觸及到我的下一個重點，因為當然，開採是一回事，但

there's also huge potential for development within Africa, especially in terms of processing these minerals.

非洲內部也蘊藏著巨大的發展潛力，尤其是在處理這些礦產方面。

Are foreign investors supporting a shift towards local processing, or do you feel the focus is still on exporting raw materials?

外國投資者是否支持轉向在地加工，還是你覺得重點仍然是出口原物料？

At the moment, the focus is still largely on exporting raw materials, which has been the traditional pattern over 200 years.

目前，重點仍然很大程度上放在出口原物料，這在過去 200 多年來一直是傳統模式。

It has always been take raw materials out of Africa.

一直以來都是把原物料運出非洲。

A lot of infrastructure projects, Africa, be they railway lines, ports or highways, they were designed originally to simply extract raw materials from Africa.

很多基礎建設，像是鐵路、港口或公路，最初的設計都是為了把原物料從非洲運出去。

But now there's a big shift, as I mentioned with that campaign, that at least 10% value addition happen in Africa.

但現在有很大的轉變，就像我提到的那個倡議，要求至少有 10% 的增值要在非洲發生。

And this is largely through some of the big energy projects that are already coming up.

這很大程度上是透過一些已經在進行的大型能源計畫。

We've seen, for example, Ethiopia came up with this huge energy project that is supposed to support energy infrastructure across the East Africa region.

例如，我們看到衣索比亞提出了一個龐大的能源計畫，預計要支持整個東非區域的能源基礎建設。

So I think with the energy projects coming up, there's going to be more push to have value addition happening within the continent.

所以我認為隨著能源計畫的推動，將會有更多動力讓增值留在非洲大陸內。

This of course involves a lot of Pan African cooperation.

Well, when it comes to minerals, it's quite tricky because first of all, there's always the connection between minerals and conflict.

嗯，說到礦產，這就比較棘手了，因為首先，礦產和衝突之間總是有關聯。

You'll notice that many of the countries that are rich in natural resources tend to also be having lots of wars.

你會發現，很多擁有豐富天然資源的國家，也常常會有很多戰爭。

People fighting over the control of those minerals and some outsiders sponsor those conflicts for purposes of easier access to those minerals.

人們為了爭奪這些礦產的控制權而開戰，有些外來者也會資助這些衝突，以便更容易取得這些礦產。

So that is a challenge that Africa is facing at the moment.

所以這就是非洲目前面臨的一個挑戰。

But there are models that are being tested out, especially we've seen with the Americans trying to put up what they call the Lopito corridor, where they're focusing on possibility for Zambia, for example, to have value add in their minerals before they are exported out.

不過，有一些正在測試中的模式，特別是我們看到美國人試圖建立所謂的 Lopito 走廊，他們著重於讓尚比亞等國家在出口礦產前，能夠在礦產上增加價值。

But that's a rare case because it's still something that is yet even to take on.

但這是一個罕見的例子，因為它還沒有真正成形。

You've also conducted some very interesting research looking specifically at the differences in how business leaders across Africa perceive European versus Chinese investment.

你也進行了一些非常有趣的研究，特別是探討非洲各地的商業領袖對歐洲和中國投資的看法有何不同。

你能為我說明一下你的發現嗎？

Well, basically, in terms of perception, I would say that first of all, in terms of data, before we go to perception, Europe is still the biggest trading partner of Africa and also the biggest investor in Africa.

嗯，基本上，就觀感而言，我會說，首先，就數據而言，在談到觀感之前，歐洲仍然是歐洲最大的貿易夥伴，也是非洲最大的投資者。

We're looking at over 300 billion euros across, of course, the 54 nation states.

我們看到橫跨 54 個國家，投資金額超過 3000 億歐元。

But when it comes to perception, you notice that when Europe invests in companies, it might not be as visible as when China invests in a port or invest in a railway infrastructure or a highway, because that's visible.

但說到觀感，你會注意到，當歐洲投資在公司時，可能不像中國投資港口、鐵路基礎設施或高速公路那樣顯眼，因為那些是很明顯的。

So then it creates a variety of perceptions.

所以這就產生了各種不同的觀感。

The first being that the Chinese deliver on time and they deliver on infrastructure that can transform on Africa's aspiration.

第一種觀感是，中國人會如期交付，而且他們交付的基礎設施能夠實現非洲的願景。

But most of the European investment would be private related.

但大部分歐洲的投資都與私人相關。

There will be companies maybe in food processing.

可能會有像是食品加工業的公司。

So it might not be associated to Europe as such, but more to the company.

所以這可能不會像歐洲那樣被連結，而是更多地與公司本身連結。

So there's that aspect of perception in terms of how Africa views China and how Africa views Europe.

所以這方面就有了觀感上的差異，關於非洲如何看待中國，以及非洲如何看待歐洲。

And then in terms of the general relationship, Europe is seen to be a region that interferes most in Africa's internal affairs by lecturing Africans to be democratic, to follow certain values.

接著就一般關係而言，歐洲被認為是最干涉非洲內政的地區，會說教非洲人要民主、要遵循某些價值觀。

But the Chinese are perceived to be not interested in terms of values.

但中國人則被認為對價值觀不感興趣。

They like to have a deal and deliver on the deal and ask for the next step.

他們喜歡達成協議並履行協議，然後再談下一步。

When it comes to these tangible effects, Europe has been pursuing an investment strategy that it hopes will act as a counterweight to China's huge Belt and Road Infrastructure initiative.

說到這些實質影響，歐洲一直在推動一項投資策略，希望藉此抗衡中國龐大的「一帶一路」基礎設施計畫。

Would you say it is succeeding in that Objective, I would say.

你覺得這項目標有成功嗎？我認為是有的。

I think Europe has a big challenge as far as that initiative of trying to compete with China.

我認為歐洲在試圖與中國競爭這項計畫上，面臨一個很大的挑戰。

The first challenge being that European countries tend to gravitate around the countries that they colonized before.

第一個挑戰是，歐洲國家傾向於和他們過去殖民過的國家聯繫。

So you get that like for Francophone, the French would wish to be more associated with the French former colonies, the British and so forth.

所以像是法語系國家，法國會希望和他們過去的殖民地有更多連結，英國也是如此。

But the Chinese do not have that baggage of former colonies.

但中國沒有這種過去殖民地的包袱。

So when they have a strategy, their strategy covers the entire continent.

所以當他們有策略時，他們的策略涵蓋了整個大陸。

So that is a big challenge, for example, for the global gateway, because there's still those remnants of paternalism that we do a project to form a colony, while the Chinese do a project for the entire continent.

這對「全球門戶計畫」來說是個大挑戰，因為仍然存在那種父權主義的殘餘，我們做一個計畫是為了形成一個殖民地，而中國人則是為整個大陸做計畫。

So there's that challenge in terms of implementation, which leads to smaller projects from Europe which are invisible and which then are challenged by the bigger projects from China, which are more visible and therefore creates that impression that China is doing more than Europe.

所以在執行上就有這個挑戰，導致歐洲的計畫規模較小且不明顯，接著又受到中國規模較大且更顯眼的計畫的挑戰，是以就產生了中國比歐洲做得更多的印象。

But when, in essence, the data will tell you that we still have a strong presence of Europe in Africa.

不過，其實數據會告訴我們，歐洲在非洲的影響力依然很強。

Now, the United States wasn't part of your research, but

雖然美國不在您的研究範圍內，但

it is, of course a big player when it comes to investment in Africa.

當然，美國在非洲的投資方面也是個大玩家。

American foreign policy has become a little bit more transactional in the era of Trump.

在川普時代，美國的外交政策變得比較交易導向。

Is this reflected in the nature of investments that American companies are pursuing?

這是否反映在美國公司所追求的投資性質上？

Well, we can see a growing interest of American companies.

嗯，我們可以看到美國公司越來越感興趣。

I mean, just the other day we saw one of the leading retail stores from the US opening up its activities in South Africa.

說真的，就在前幾天，我們看到一家美國領先的零售商店在南非開展業務。

I would say a lot of American companies will find them operating from the southern part.

我認為很多美國公司會發現它們從南部地區營運。

But there's still the challenge of how the American politics approaches Africa.

不過，美國的政治如何看待非洲，這仍然是個挑戰。

I mean, in terms of even pronouncements of American leaders, they see Africa as really a place of no consequence in terms of their strategy.

意思是說，就連美國領導人的發言，他們都覺得非洲在他們的戰略裡，根本不重要。

And that somehow has played into the Chinese strategy.

而這不知不覺中，反而助長了中國的戰略。

Because you notice when America, for example, stopped USAID program, just the other day, we saw China stepping in to finance the program for South Africa.

因為你注意到，像是前幾天美國停止了 USAID 的計畫，我們就看到中國介入，為南非提供資金。

Whereas America is turning away from Africa and feeling that we are not very strategic, Asian countries and Gulf states are finding Africa to be a strategic place to go.

美國正逐漸疏遠非洲，覺得我們沒什麼戰略價值，但亞洲國家和海灣國家卻發現非洲是個戰略之地。

And of course, for Europe, we call them our own partners.

當然，對歐洲來說，我們稱他們為自己的夥伴。

They are also trying to reinvent their engagement with Africa.

他們也在試圖重塑與非洲的互動。

Now, Africa offers a whole lot of opportunities beyond natural resources as well.

現在，非洲提供的機會，遠不止於天然資源。

It has a young and a growing consumer market.

它擁有一個年輕且不斷成長的消費市場。

For example, what kind of investment opportunities does that present for foreign businesses?

舉例來說，這對外國企業來說，會帶來什麼樣的投資機會呢？

I mean, first of all, we have to look at the fact that when you're having a youthful population, these are energetic people, they want some Fresh ideas, some challenges that they can be able to solve.

也就是說，首先，我們必須看看，當你擁有年輕人口時，這些人充滿活力，他們想要一些新鮮的想法、一些他們能夠解決的挑戰。

So it's projected by the Africa Development bank that by the year 2030, Africa should be have a market of consumers, if I put it that way, of over US$2.5 trillion.

是以，根據非洲開發銀行的預測，到2030年，非洲的消費者市場，如果我這樣說的話，將超過2.5兆美元。

And that is an attractive aspect, especially when you look at digital related companies.

這是一個吸引人的面向，特別是當你關注數位相關的公司時。

We've seen quite a number of some of these companies from the US now setting base here in Kenya, in Ghana, in South Africa, because they like to tap into this youthful population that would like to make use of this new gizmos, you know, AI and things like that.

我們已經看到不少美國公司現在在這裡的肯亞、迦納、南非等地設立據點，因為他們喜歡利用這些年輕人口，他們想使用這些新玩意，像是AI等等。

所以，這確實是一個充滿潛力的市場。

The challenge of course is it's not coordinated in one city.

當然，挑戰在於它並沒有集中在一個城市。

You're looking at 54 nation states with their varied aspirations.

你看到的是54個國家，各自有不同的期望。

So even as we say that by the year 2100 we'll have maybe over 4 billion Africans and 60% below 20 years of age.

所以，即使我們說到2100年，非洲可能有超過40億人口，其中60%在20歲以下。

Any investor has then to look at the realities by using what we call regional economic blocks.

所以，任何投資者都必須透過我們所謂的區域經濟區來檢視現實。

The second aspect is to look at what you call nodal countries.

第二個面向是看看你所謂的節點國家。

So for example, Kenya becomes a gateway for the East Africa region.

所以，舉例來說，肯亞就成了東非地區的門戶。

We've got Nigeria in the west, we've got South Africa in the south and so forth.

我們有西邊的奈及利亞，南邊的南非等等。

So the nodal entry points become the best way for any investor would like to tap into this growing consumer market in Africa.

所以，節點的切入點就成了任何投資者想要進入非洲這個不斷成長的消費市場的最佳方式。

Now this trend is happening as much of the rest of the world grapples with an aging population.

現在，當世界其他地方都在努力應對人口老化問題時，這種趨勢正在發生。

There is likely going to be huge competition for attracting African talent.

非洲人才的爭奪戰很可能會非常激烈。

What do African leaders need to do to make sure that they keep these bright young people at home?

非洲領導人需要做些什麼，才能確保留住這些聰明的年輕人留在國內呢？