Name: 美國和平計畫給予烏克蘭什麼安全保障 — 這足以嚇阻侵略嗎？ (What security guarantees does the US peace plan grant Ukraine — and are they enough of a deterrent?)
Uploaded: 2025-11-24T16:56:11.000Z
Duration: 5 min 58 s

程度副詞

We begin in Geneva, where an upbeat US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has hailed a day of talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, saying that he's very optimistic that a deal can be reached soon.

我們從日內瓦開始，美國國務卿馬可·魯比歐對一場旨在結束烏克蘭戰爭的談判日給予了高度評價，表示他對很快能達成協議感到非常樂觀。

Rubio joined Ukrainian and European officials for a series of meetings to discuss a U.S. peace plan.

魯比歐與烏克蘭及歐洲官員進行了一系列會議，討論美國的和平計畫。

He described it as the most productive day on the issue in the past 10 months.

他形容這是過去十個月來，在該議題上最有成效的一天。

But he wouldn't get into the details of the discussions weeks ago.

但他沒有詳述幾週前討論的細節。

Let's have a listen to some of what Secretary Rubio had to say on Sunday.

讓我們來聽聽魯比歐國務卿週日說了些什麼。

我們今天來到這裡有一個目標，

the goal was to take, you know, what knows, 28 points or 26 points, depending on which version, as it continue to evolve and try to narrow the ones that were open items.

目標是，你知道，拿出 28 點或 26 點，看是哪個版本，隨著它不斷演變，並試圖縮小那些未決事項。

And we have achieved that today in a very substantial way.

而我們今天已經以非常實質性的方式達成了這個目標。

Now, obviously, like any final agreement, they'll have to be agreed upon by the presidents.

現在，顯然，就像任何最終協議一樣，總統們必須同意。

And there are a couple issues that we need to continue to work on.

還有幾個問題我們需要繼續努力。

But I think the report today is that I think today was worthwhile.

不過我認為今天的報告是，我認為今天很值得。

It was very, very it is probably the most productive day we have had on this issue.

這絕對是我們在這個議題上最有成效的一天。

Mikhail Alekseev is professor of political science at San Diego State University, and he joins me for more.

聖地牙哥州立大學政治學教授米哈伊爾·阿列克謝耶夫將加入我們，進行更多討論。

U.S. secretary of State Marco Rubio there saying he's very optimistic after a first day of talks.

美國國務卿馬可·魯比歐表示，他對第一天的談判感到非常樂觀。

Ukrainian officials said that they also see progress.

烏克蘭官員表示，他們也看到了進展。

I think that what the comments by Secretary Rubio reflect is what we have known all along, that Ukraine has been much more cooperative, much more flexible actor in these negotiations, open to sensible compromises.

我認為魯比歐國務卿的評論反映了我們一直以來都知道的事情，那就是烏克蘭在這些談判中一直是一個更合作、更靈活的參與者，願意做出合理的妥協。

And the question is whether any kind of proposal, any kind of deal, meets two requirements that can actually lead to durable secession of hostilities.

問題是，任何提案、任何協議是否能滿足兩項要求，從而真正實現敵對行動的持久停止。

One would be the ceasefire of the kind that President Donald Trump proposed earlier, to which Russia never agreed, but

一個是川普總統先前提出的停火協議，俄羅斯從未同意，但烏克蘭同意了。

And the second one would be significant measures to stop Russia from further escalation, from further waging war.

第二個則是重要的措施，阻止俄羅斯進一步升級，進一步發動戰爭。

Russia will not see any reason to stop after any kind of peace deal unless there are provisions there that can actually send the message to Moscow that the cost of further military action are going to be detrimental to Russia.

俄羅斯不會看到任何停止的理由，除非任何和平協議中包含能向莫斯科傳達訊息的條款，那就是進一步軍事行動的代價將對俄羅斯造成損害。

Those two provisions that you just pointed out, you said that Ukraine is very flexible.

你剛才指出的這兩項條款，你說烏克蘭非常靈活。

How realistic is it that it can really shift the plan?

這有多現實，能真正改變計畫？

Well, that is what we don't know and we have seen on the part of the White House moves in different directions.

嗯，這就是我們不知道的，我們看到白宮方面有不同的行動。

It will have to move significantly more back to the kind of actions that President Donald Trump articulated earlier, such as putting more pressure on India and China even repositioning US Nuclear submarines, discussing NATO troops on the ground as part of some kind of peacekeeping guarantee or even membership for NATO.

它必須大幅回歸川普總統先前闡述的行動，例如對印度和中國施加更大壓力，甚至重新部署美國核潛艦，討論作為某種維和保證或甚至北約會員國一部分的北約地面部隊。

I believe that then either what we will have as Ukraine capitulation, Russia continues to move on, or Russia stalls, the war continues.

我認為，到時候烏克蘭就會投降，俄羅斯繼續推進，或者俄羅斯停滯不前，戰爭就會繼續。

That second provision you pointed out, again saying the need to stop further aggression, very important to Kiev.

你指出的第二項規定，再次提到停止進一步侵略的必要性，這對基輔非常重要。

We know that Europe has reportedly put forward a counter proposal drafted by Germany, France and the UK suggesting that US security guarantees for Ukraine, similar to NATO's Article 5 would be something to add here.

我們知道，據報導，歐洲已經提出了一項由德國、法國和英國起草的反建議，建議美國為烏克蘭提供類似北約第五條的 सुरक्षा 擔保。

Do you think Washington would agree to that in the first place?

Well, we have not seen much, let's say, predisposition for that kind of guarantees on the part of the United States.

嗯，我們還沒有看到美國在這方面有太多的傾向。

We have also seen, however, that President Donald Trump may shift positions very quickly.

然而，我們也看到，唐納·川普總統可能會很快改變立場。

So at this point, then, the critical question is how long it would take for this situation to keep going, to actually, again reinstate that approach and to take it even one step further.

所以，到這個時候，關鍵問題就變成了這種情況會持續多久，才能再次恢復這種做法，甚至更進一步。

The Reuters news agency reporting that Zelenskyy could even meet with Trump this week.

路透社報導稱，澤倫斯基本週甚至可能與川普會面。

How important is it for Zelenskyy to get that audience with the president, given the harsh realities of this plan?

考慮到這個計畫的嚴峻現實，澤倫斯基獲得這次會面的機會有多重要？

And what we know is Trump's tendency to be more amenable in person.

我們所知道的是，川普本人更容易溝通。

All of these meetings are highly important.

And you are right, we see that Donald Trump calibrates his responses.

你說得對，我們看到唐納·川普會調整他的回應。

He is very attuned to changes in the situation and these kinds of.

他非常關注情勢的變化，以及這類。

And he also assesses the resolve of not just Zelensky, but

他也會評估，不只是澤倫斯基，還有

probably Ukrainian people to how much they would fight by talking to Zelenskyy.

烏克蘭人民的決心，透過與澤倫斯基談話，瞭解他們會戰鬥到什麼程度。

So Zelenskyy, I believe, has a very good sense of Ukrainian society, and

所以，我相信澤倫斯基非常瞭解烏克蘭社會，

that's what he can convey to Donald Trump.

這也是他可以傳達給唐納·川普的。

And I think that would be very beneficial to the overall process.

我認為這對整個過程會非常有益。

That's Mikhail Alexie, professor of political science at San Diego State University.

這是聖地牙哥州立大學政治學教授米哈伊爾·阿列克謝。