Name: 加密貨幣崩盤？別慌！這可能是十年一次的絕佳機會！ (CRYPTO CRASH? Don’t panic, This Is the Once-in-a-Decade Opportunity)
Uploaded: 2025-11-20T17:59:33.000Z
Duration: 12 min 26 s

Bitcoin is down by at least 26% and it already lost $600 billion worth of market cap.

Bitcoin 下跌了至少 26%，市值已經蒸發了 6000 億美元。

程度副詞

Last time bitcoin dropped this much was back in April when Donald Trump announced universal tariffs on every single nation.

上一次 Bitcoin 跌這麼慘是在四月，那時候川普宣佈對所有國家實施普徵關稅。

The market crashed and it took down with it the crypto market.

市場崩盤，也拖垮了加密貨幣市場。

But this time, bitcoin, it is crashing for a completely different reason.

但這次 Bitcoin 下跌的原因完全不同。

This time it is going to be way worse than it was back in April.

But on the other side, it is a great opportunity because it will come back to $100,000 and maybe more.

不過換個角度看，這也是個絕佳的機會，因為它終將回到 10 萬美元，甚至更高。

It will go down towards 50, 40 or even $30,000.

它會跌到 5 萬、4 萬，甚至 3 萬美元。

And if you think that I'm exaggerating, let me prove it to you.

如果你覺得我講得太誇張，我來證明給你看。

The the value of bitcoin reflects the value of cash.

Bitcoin 的價值反映了現金的價值。

When we are in a period of an economic boom, when getting a job is easy, when companies are offering really great incomes, that's when the economy is growing tremendously.

當我們處於經濟繁榮時期，找工作很容易，公司提供很優渥的薪資，這時候經濟就會蓬勃發展。

Very high spending leads to high inflation.

過高的支出會導致嚴重的通貨膨脹。

High inflation reduces the value of cash.

所以大家不喜歡把錢放在手上。

They like to put it somewhere and invest it.

他們喜歡把錢放到別的地方，進行投資。

But because there is so much spending in the economy, the stock market is booming.

但因為經濟支出這麼龐大，股票市場也跟著蓬勃發展。

So if you have cash and the market is booming by 10%, you could invest it and make 10% on that investment.

所以如果你有現金，而市場上漲了 10%，你就可以投資，並從中獲得 10% 的投資回報率。

Why would you hold cash when you can get actually 10% instantly?

當你可以立刻獲得 10% 的收益時，為什麼還要持有現金呢？

When the economy falls into a recession, into a crisis, when jobs are going down, when it's difficult to find a job, when they report a jobs report and you're like, that doesn't seem like true.

當經濟陷入衰退、危機，工作機會減少，找工作變得困難，當你看到一份令人質疑的就業報告時。

So you're less likely to spend money on Amazon.

所以你不太可能在 Amazon 上花錢。

You're less likely to buy that iPhone because everybody is spending less.

你不太可能買那支 iPhone，因為大家都在減少開銷。

The economy is not growing as fast, so the stock market isn't growing that fast.

經濟成長變慢，股票市場當然也沒那麼快成長。

So instead of 10%, it might be growing by 2%.

所以原本可能成長 10%，現在可能只剩 2%。

So suddenly the cost of holding cash have actually went down dramatically.

突然間，持有現金的機會成本就大幅下降了。

Inflation is slowing down, so holding cash suddenly becomes more valuable.

通膨趨緩，持有現金的價值就突然變高了。

If we take all the assets in the market, we can divide them into two major categories.

如果我們把市場上所有的資產都拿出來看，可以抽成兩大類。

A safe investment has a predictable return.

安全投資會有一個可預期的報酬。

So if you buy this asset, you know that it is going to make X amount of money.

所以如果你買了這個資產，你知道它會賺到 X 的金額。

It is value is not going to go down dramatically because everybody knows that it is going to make that much money.

它的價值不會大幅下跌，因為大家都知道它會賺到那麼多錢。

U.S. treasuries have, for example, a 5% yield.

美國國債，舉例來說，有 5% 的收益率。

When you buy that, you know that you will have your thousand dollars at the end of the tunnel and you know that you will make 5% on that.

當你買了這個，你知道在最後你會拿回你的千元美金，而且你知道你會賺到 5%。

The price of real estate often holds its value.

事實上，隨著時間過去，房價會上漲。

And if it's in a very attractive place that you can easily rent out, then it might have a return on investment of 5, 6, or maybe even 7%.

而且如果它位在一個很吸引人、很容易出租的地方，那麼它的投資回報率可能會是 5%、6%，甚至 7%。

On the other side, you have risky investments.

Risky investments don't have an exact return.

We are speculating on how much this investment can possibly make.

我們是在猜測這個投資最多能賺多少。

It could make a lot of money, or it could make no money at all.

它可能會賺很多錢，也可能什麼都賺不到。

It is worth like half a trillion dollars, but it's making about a billion dollars or two.

它的市值大約是五千億美元，但它賺的錢大約只有十億或二十億美元。

But investors believe, or some investors believe, that Palantir could be making hundreds of billions of dollars sometime in the future.

但投資人相信，或者說有些投資人相信，Palantir 未來可能會賺到數千億美元。

It could make that much money or maybe it won't be making that much money.

它可能會賺那麼多錢，也可能不會賺那麼多錢。

And that's why it's a very speculative asset, and that's why it is considered a risky investment.

這就是為什麼它是一個非常投機性的資產，這也是為什麼它被視為風險投資。

Speculative assets aren't always easy to sell.

If the market is booming and people are filled with cash, yes, you can easily sell your speculative Bitcoins and crypto and Palantir stocks.

如果市場正在蓬勃發展，人們手頭寬裕，是的，你可以輕鬆賣掉你投機性的 Bitcoin、加密貨幣和 Palantir 股票。

But when there is a recession and there is a crisis, people have less jobs, less incomes, they're very less likely to spend that money.

但如果出現衰退和危機，人們失業更多，收入更少，他們就不太可能花那些錢了。

So your speculative assets is suddenly very difficult to sell, so its price falls down.

所以你的投機性資產突然變得非常難賣，價格就會下跌。

On the other side, if you have cash, cash is more valuable because cash is tied in a recession and crypto is a very speculative asset.

另一方面，如果你有現金，現金會更有價值，因為在衰退時期現金更穩，而加密貨幣是非常投機性的資產。

And because our economy right now is headed into a recession, it is very normal and natural that crypto prices are falling down.

而且因為我們目前的經濟正朝著衰退邁進，加密貨幣價格下跌是很正常、很自然的。

If you summarize it, high earnings leads to a very strong demand in the economy.

總結來說，高收益會導致經濟中出現非常強勁的需求。

A lot of spending leads to very corporate high earnings.

大量的支出會帶來企業高額的收益。

If you spent your entire paycheck on Amazon, Amazon's next financial reports will show that Amazon made a lot of money.

如果你把整個薪水都花在亞馬遜上，亞馬遜下一份財務報告就會顯示亞馬遜賺了很多錢。

It is going to increase its valuation and lead to a market rally.

這將會增加它的估值，並帶動市場反彈。

Market rally means that everything is growing and people are more likely to speculate.

市場反彈意味著一切都在增長，人們更有可能進行投機。

So speculative assets such as Palantir and crypto in general are going to rise.

所以像 Palantir 和一般的加密貨幣等投機性資產將會上漲。

But if people are making a lot less money, like right now, demand goes down, which means that less earnings for companies.

但如果人們賺的錢少了很多，就像現在一樣，需求就會下降，這意味著公司的收益會減少。

Next financial report shows that Apple sold less iPhones the market falls, especially speculative assets.

下一份財務報告顯示，如果蘋果賣出的 iPhone 變少，市場就會下跌，特別是投機性資產。

The first assets that people sell in the market when there is a crisis are the speculative assets, the assets they don't know for a fact if they are going to pay off in the future.

當危機發生時，人們在市場上賣出的第一批資產就是投機性資產，也就是那些不確定未來是否會有所回報的資產。

What makes crypto crash much worse is leverage.

讓加密貨幣崩盤更嚴重的是槓桿。

Leverage is the ability to multiply your gains or multiply your losses.

槓桿是放大你的收益或損失的能力。

Imagine you start trading with $1,000 and you buy $1,000 worth of Bitcoin.

想像一下，你用 1,000 美元開始交易，然後買入價值 1,000 美元的 Bitcoin。

And let's assume that it is going to grow by 10%.

10% on $1,000 is an extra hundred dollars.

1,000 美元的 10% 是額外的 100 美元。

But if you leverage your position 10 to 1, that means that you can multiply your profits by 10 times.

但如果你將你的部位槓桿化 10 倍，這意味著你可以將你的利潤放大 10 倍。

So instead of just making $100 on that investment or a trade, you will make $1,000.

所以，你這次投資或交易賺到的不是 100 美元，而是 1,000 美元。

If the market is growing, you're 10x ing your gains.

如果市場在漲，你的收益就會放大 10 倍。

That pushes the price of Bitcoin to rise.

That attracts more buyers of bitcoin, which is going to lead to a fall self fulfilling prophecy and keeps pushing the price of Bitcoin to increase.

這會吸引更多人買入 Bitcoin，這將形成一種自我實現的預言，並持續推動 Bitcoin 的價格上漲。

But what happens when the price of Bitcoin falls?

但如果 Bitcoin 的價格下跌了呢？

Ideally, if it was just 10%, you are losing $100 so you can exit your position with $900.

理想情況下，如果只是 10%，你損失 100 美元，所以你可以用 900 美元出場。

However, if you have leveraged your position 10 to 1, you are losing 10 times the amount.

然而，如果你將部位槓桿化了 10 倍，你損失的金額就會是 10 倍。

So you're losing your entire thousand dollars.

所以你損失的是你全部的 1,000 美元。

That that's why when the market falls, that leverage position or an overleveraged market is going to reinforce losses and pushes the price to crash much bigger than it does usually.

這就是為什麼當市場下跌時，槓桿部位或過度槓桿化的市場會加劇損失，並推動價格比平常跌得更多。

And if the price keeps falling, more investors began to sell, which is going to lead to a much bigger crash.

如果價格持續下跌，更多投資者開始賣出，這將導致更大的崩盤。

Crypto is regulated in the United States, so you can leverage your position 10 to 1 or 50 to 1 or 100 to 1.

加密貨幣在美國是受監管的，所以你可以用 10 倍或 50 倍，甚至 100 倍的槓桿來操作。

But most of the crypto exchanges are registered outside the United States and people trade crypto all across the globe.

但大部分的加密貨幣交易所都註冊在美國以外的地方，而且大家都在全球各地交易加密貨幣。

So it's not just the demand from the United States, but

the demand from everywhere else around the globe.

還有來自全球其他地方的需求。

And since there are places where you can leverage your position 50 to 1, a small drop in bitcoin price is going to force these people to sell their entire portfolios, which is going to lead to a huge supply of crypto in the market, but

而且因為有些地方可以讓你用 50 倍的槓桿操作，所以當 Bitcoin 價格小幅下跌時，就會迫使這些人賣掉他們所有的資產，這將導致市場上出現大量的加密貨幣供應，但

very limited demand, which is going to lead to a huge crash.

需求卻非常有限，這將導致巨大的崩盤。

Leverage positions 50 to 1, 30 to 1, or sometimes even 100 to 1 are normal in the crypto market.

在加密貨幣市場，50 倍、30 倍，甚至有時 100 倍的槓桿部位是很常見的。

That's why bitcoin could continue crashing.

這就是為什麼 Bitcoin 可能會持續下跌。

But the real question is, will it crash to $0?

但真正的問題是，它會跌到 0 嗎？

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加密貨幣崩盤？別慌！這可能是十年一次的絕佳機會！ (CRYPTO CRASH? Don’t panic, This Is the Once-in-a-Decade Opportunity)

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