Name: 上一次發生這種情況......美國經濟崩潰了 (The Last Time This Happened… US Economy Collapsed)
Uploaded: 2025-10-23T18:19:10.000Z
Duration: 12 min 38 s

情態副詞

There is something seriously wrong with the stock market.

Last time something like this has happened, the US economy has collapsed.

上次發生這種事的時候，美國經濟崩潰了。

AI companies have been announcing recently multi hundred billion dollar investments.

最近 AI 公司紛紛宣佈數千億美元的投資。

Nvidia is going to invest in OpenAI $100 billion.

Nvidia 準備投資 OpenAI 1000 億美元。

OpenAI is going to invest in Oracle $300 billion.

OpenAI 準備投資 Oracle 3000 億美元。

SoftBank OpenAI and Oracle will invest in Stargate $500 billion.

SoftBank、OpenAI 和 Oracle 將投資 Stargate 5000 億美元。

These three investments alone worth $900 billion.

光是這三項投資就價值 9000 億美元。

But if you pull out Nvidia's financial statements, you will find out that Nvidia has about $57 billion in cash and about $11 billion in net debt.

但如果你拿出 Nvidia 的財務報表，你會發現 Nvidia 大約有 570 億美元的現金和約 110 億美元的淨債務。

So maximum that Nvidia can actually invest in any other company is about 5 to 10% after its debts.

所以 Nvidia 實際上最多能投資其他公司的金額，扣除債務後大約是 5% 到 10%。

So that's a few billion dollars, 3 to 4 billion dollars.

所以這就是幾十億美元，30 到 40 億美元。

If you pull out OpenAI's financial statements, you will see that the company is burning money and has no additional dollar to invest anywhere.

如果你拿出 OpenAI 的財務報表，你會發現這家公司正在燒錢，沒有額外的錢可以投資到任何地方。

If you pull out the Oracle's financial statements, the company has about $10 billion in cash and about $111 billion in net debt.

如果你拿出 Oracle 的財務報表，這家公司大約有 100 億美元的現金和約 1110 億美元的淨債務。

So when exactly these three companies are planning to take $900 billion, when all of them are simply filled with debt.

所以當這三家公司計劃拿出 9000 億美元時，實際上他們都充滿了債務。

But before we answer that question, let me tell you something about Microsoft.

但在我們回答這個問題之前，讓我告訴你一些關於 Microsoft 的事。

Microsoft has been one of the best performing stocks recently.

Microsoft 最近一直是表現最好的股票之一。

The president, the CFO and many other executives have been on a buying spree showing that insiders are still bullish on the future of Microsoft.

總裁、財務長和許多其他高階主管都進行了掃貨潮，顯示內部人士對 Microsoft 的未來仍然看漲。

But what is interesting here is that I found all of this information on an app called Mumu, the sponsor of today's video.

但有趣的是，我在一個叫做 Mumu 的 App 上找到了所有這些資訊，Mumu 是今天影片的贊助商。

It's one of the most powerful trading and investing platforms in the world.

它是世界上最強大的交易和投資平臺之一。

A platform that was designed by traders for traders with features that truly stand out.

一個由交易員為交易員設計的平臺，功能真正出眾。

It's backed by Futu holdings that is listed on the NASDAQ and trusted by 27 million users across the U.S.

它由在 NASDAQ 上市的 Futu holdings 支持，並獲得美國 2700 萬用戶的信賴。

canada, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia and Japan Australia.

加拿大、澳洲、新加坡、馬來西亞和日本澳洲。

I have been using Mumu to track where institutional investors have been placing their orders.

我一直在使用 Mumu 來追蹤機構投資者下單的地點。

These are the stocks that he has purchased and these are the position that he has exited.

這些是他買進的股票，這些是他退出的部位。

The dashboard is so convenient that I can check any stock on the right side of the screen.

儀錶板非常方便，我可以在螢幕右側查看任何股票。

The same features are available on the mobile app.

行動應用程式也提供相同的功能。

And you can compare his portfolio to the S&P 500.

您可以將他的投資組合與 S&P 500 進行比較。

It seems like the S&P 500 has been doing four far better than Michael Burry's portfolio recently.

看來最近 S&P 500 的表現遠優於 Michael Burry 的投資組合。

There is zero dollar commissions on stocks, ETFs and options.

股票、ETF 和選擇權交易零手續費。

Zero dollar contract fees for equity options.

Level 2 data real time option chains and advanced type orders for those who are interested.

有興趣的朋友可以取得即時的 Level 2 資料、選擇權鏈和進階委託單。

So if you're ready to join me and 27 million other people who are using Mumu, then scan the QR code on the screen or click the link below this video for a limited time offer.

所以，如果你準備好加入我和另外 2700 萬使用 Mumu 的用戶，請掃描螢幕上的 QR Code 或點擊影片下方的連結，享有限時優惠。

And as a thank you for trying them out, you can get up to $1,000 worth of Nvidia stocks.

為了感謝你試用，你可以獲得價值高達 1,000 美元的 Nvidia 股票。

As a bonus when you sign up and make a deposit using the link below, Nvidia recently announced multiple billion dollar deals into multiple different companies.

透過下方連結註冊並存款，還能獲得額外獎勵，Nvidia 最近宣佈了多項數十億美元的交易，投資了多家不同的公司。

$100 billion into OpenAI, $2 billion into XAI, and $6.3 billion into Core Weave.

對 OpenAI 投資 1,000 億美元，對 XAI 投資 20 億美元，對 Core Weave 投資 63 億美元。

But but because Nvidia does not have that much money to give any of those companies, Nvidia came out with a brilliant plan.

但是，由於 Nvidia 沒有那麼多錢可以給這些公司，Nvidia 想出了一個絕妙的計畫。

The problem is that these companies either don't have that money to buy so many GPUs from Nvidia, so Nvidia came up with a brilliant plant.

問題是，這些公司不是沒有錢向 Nvidia 購買這麼多 GPU，所以 Nvidia 想出了一個絕妙的計畫。

Nvidia will lease almost a hundred billion dollars worth of GPUs to OpenAI.

Nvidia 將會向 OpenAI 出租價值近千億美元的 GPU。

And in exchange, Nvidia will take a share in OpenAI.

作為交換，Nvidia 將持有 OpenAI 的部分股份。

Since the introduction of ChatGPT back in 2022, Nvidia, Nvidia has increased its prices multiple fold.

自 2022 年 ChatGPT 推出以來，Nvidia 的價格已經翻了好幾倍。

So most of the companies cannot possibly afford these GPUs.

所以大多數公司根本負擔不起這些 GPU。

You need billions of dollars if you want to build the AI infrastructure.

如果你想建立 AI 基礎設施，你需要數十億美元。

So Nvidia is actually making a lot of money, but many other AI companies are not.

所以 Nvidia 實際上賺了很多錢，但許多其他 AI 公司卻沒有。

So Nvidia will lease $2 billion worth of its GPUs to XAI, and

Nvidia 將會向 XAI 出租價值 20 億美元的 GPU，

Nvidia 將會持有 XAI 的部分股份。

Nvidia will also provide $6.3 billion worth of its GPUs to Core Weave.

Nvidia 也將向 Core Weave 提供價值 63 億美元的 GPU。

And CoreWeave is simply GPUs to other businesses that need those GPUs to power their AI.

CoreWeave 則將這些 GPU 轉租給其他需要 GPU 來驅動 AI 的企業。

Nvidia simply turned their GPUs into a capital that they can exchange for equity in many other AI companies.

Nvidia 只是將他們的 GPU 變成了一種資本，可以用來換取許多其他 AI 公司的股權。

Oracle has borrowed tens of billions of dollars to invest in AI.

Oracle 借了數百億美元來投資 AI。

So it is going to spend $40 billion buying Nvidia's GPUs and OpenAI will pay Oracle $300 billion to to use its GPUs because OpenAI is not in a position to borrow that much money.

所以他們將花費 400 億美元購買 Nvidia 的 GPU，而 OpenAI 將支付 Oracle 3000 億美元來使用他們的 GPU，因為 OpenAI 無法借到這麼多錢。

So Oracle is essentially borrowing money from investors, buying GPUs from Nvidia and then literally just loaning those GPUs as you can say, to OpenAI.

所以 Oracle 基本上是從投資者那裡借錢，從 Nvidia 那裡購買 GPU，然後再將這些 GPU 借給 OpenAI。

So you can clearly see that money isn't actually flowing between these companies.

所以你可以清楚地看到，資金實際上並沒有在這些公司之間流動。

Those multi hundred Billion dollar deals are not cash deals.

那些數千億美元的交易並非現金交易。

But money isn't flowing from one company to another.

但資金並沒有從一家公司流向另一家公司。

These are simply Nvidia's GPUs flowing from one company into another company.

這只是 Nvidia 的 GPU 在一家公司之間流動。

The real problem is when we start valuing these companies based on the fact that real money has actually changed hands.

真正的問題是，當我們開始根據實際金錢易手的這個事實來評估這些公司時。

If you look at all the private AI companies, you will see that they have insane valuations, even though that there isn't actually real money.

如果你看看所有這些私人的 AI 公司，你會發現它們的估值高得離譜，儘管實際上並沒有真正的金錢。

OpenAI's valuation has crossed $500 billion, even though that the company is announcing an annual revenue of about $12 billion.

OpenAI 的估值已經突破了 5000 億美元，儘管該公司宣佈的年收入約為 120 億美元。

Xai Elon Musk's company is valued at about $200 billion, while its annual revenue is $200 million.

Elon Musk 的公司 Xai 估值約為 2000 億美元，而其年收入為 2 億美元。

So essentially the valuation is literally a thousand times of its revenue.

所以基本上，這個估值是其收入的千倍。

And the same thing that you can say about every single other AI company, which is what makes the entire worse, what makes the situation even dire, that these companies are paying their employees simply in stock compensation packages.

同樣的情況也適用於其他每一家 AI 公司，這讓整個情況變得更糟，讓情況更加嚴峻，那就是這些公司只是用股票薪酬方案來支付員工。

If you look at who owns OpenAI, 25% of the company or about $125 billion is being owned by employees.

如果你看看 OpenAI 的股東，25% 的公司股份，約 1250 億美元，是由員工持有的。

Because OpenAI does not have that much cash.

That much cash does not even exist in the AI sphere, which is why companies are simply paying off their employees in stock compensation packages.

AI 領域甚至不存在那麼多現金，這就是為什麼公司只是用股票薪酬方案來支付員工。

So you can see that most of deals, most of that money, most of that capital has nothing to do with real money, with real cash, with the real earnings.

所以你可以看到，大部分的交易、大部分的資金、大部分的資本，都跟真實的錢、真實的現金、真實的收益無關。

It's simply either GPUs moving from Nvidia to other companies.

這只是 GPU 從 Nvidia 轉移到其他公司而已。

And other companies are simply being valued at insane valuations and are paying everyone else based on their stock compensation packages, which makes the valuations even more insane.

而其他公司只是以瘋狂的估值來定價，並根據他們的股票薪酬方案來支付其他人，這讓估值變得更加瘋狂。

The real question is who is actually making money out of AI Now Nvidia is making most of the money.

真正的問題是，誰真正從 AI 中賺到錢？現在 Nvidia 賺到了大部分的錢。

The entire AI sphere or the industry is around Nvidia.

整個 AI 領域或產業都圍繞著 Nvidia。

And if you look at the financial statements of the company, they did actually make hundreds of billions of dollars.

如果你看看這家公司的財務報表，他們確實賺了數千億美元。

But the problem is that Nvidia has actually reached its full potential.

但問題是，Nvidia 其實已經達到了它的全部潛力。

Yes, there is far more demand for these GPUs, but

是的，對這些 GPU 的需求遠遠大於供給，但是

these companies who demand these GPUs don't have the money to buy those GPUs.

那些需要這些 GPU 的公司卻沒有錢來購買這些 GPU。

But if Nvidia will stop selling these GPUs, its valuation is going to crash.

但如果 Nvidia 停止銷售這些 GPU，它的估值將會崩盤。

So because the industry has reached its full potential, Nvidia is Simply leasing those GPUs used to other companies in exchange for equity.

所以因為這個產業已經達到飽和，Nvidia 乾脆把那些用過的 GPU 租給其他公司，換取股權。

The real company that supposed to be making money out of AI is OpenAI because OpenAI is providing the final product to the consumers.

真正應該從 AI 賺到錢的公司是 OpenAI，因為 OpenAI 提供最終產品給消費者。

But if you look at OpenAI's financials, you will see that it is actually not doing that great.

但如果你看看 OpenAI 的財務狀況，你會發現它其實沒有做得那麼好。

Over the first months of 2025, they have earned about $4.3 billion, while the company has spent $12 billion.

在 2025 年的前幾個月，他們賺了約 43 億美元，但公司卻花了 120 億美元。

So their total losses is about $8 billion.

所以他們的總損失約為 80 億美元。

It's Norma startups to burn that much cash, and

新創公司燒這麼多錢是很正常的，

they usually burn billions of dollars before companies turn a profit.

而且他們通常要燒掉數十億美元後公司才會開始獲利。

But what I want you to pay attention to, even after spending hundreds of billions of dollars into this industry, and

但我想讓你們注意的是，即使在這個產業投入了數千億美元，而且

the industry has reached its peak, these companies are far away from profitability.

產業已經達到高峰，這些公司離獲利還差得很遠。

And if OpenAI cannot turn a profit, then you can be certain that not a single other AI company that delivers the final product to the consumer is not actually turning a profit anytime soon.

如果 OpenAI 無法獲利，那麼你可以確定，任何其他提供最終產品給消費者的 AI 公司，近期內都不會真正獲利。

OpenAI will allow verified adults to use ChatGPT to generate erotic content.

OpenAI 將允許經過驗證的成年人使用 ChatGPT 生成色情內容。

You wouldn't do anything like that unless you're very desperate and you're trying to raise your revenue in any way possible.

除非你真的很絕望，想盡辦法提高收入，否則你不會做這種事。

I'm not saying anything bad about OpenAI or AI in general.

我並不是在說 OpenAI 或 AI 的壞話。

AI will potentially in the long run, will change the world.

AI 長遠來看，可能會改變世界。

But the problem is that if those valuations today will not be backed by real earnings, there is a problem.

但問題是，如果今天的估值沒有真實的收益支撐，那就會有問題。

The stock market has been insanely growing fast since 2022.

自 2022 年以來，股市一直瘋狂增長。

But at the same time, margin debt has also been growing tremendously.

但同時，保證金債務也大幅增加。

When the market is growing, investors often borrow money against their portfolio to maximize their profits.

當市場增長時，投資者經常會以他們的投資組合為抵押借錢，以最大化利潤。

If the market has grown by 10% and you borrowed against your portfolio 2 to 1, then you can double, literally your returns.

如果市場增長了 10%，而你以 2 比 1 的比例借款，那麼你的回報就可以翻倍。