Name: 房地產市場即將變得醜陋--遠比你想象的糟糕 (The Housing Market’s About to Get Ugly - Its Far Worse Than You Expect)
Uploaded: 2025-09-27T18:33:07.000Z
Duration: 13 min 58 s

情態副詞

There is something dangerously wrong going on inside the housing market.

房地產市場內部出現了一些危險的問題。

基礎被動語態

Rent prices are soaring because millions of Americans who want to buy houses cannot possibly afford them, so they are forced to rent them.

房租價格飆升，是因為數百萬美國人想買房卻買不起，只能租房。

The market is broken for the average American.

對於普通美國人來說，市場已經崩潰。

Even if the federal reserve is going to lower the interest rate, it is not going to help.

即使美聯儲降低利率，也無濟於事。

But what if I told you that the government is systematically trying to make it impossible for the average American to buy a house.

但如果我告訴你，政府正在有計劃地讓普通美國人無法買房呢？

I know that it sounds like a conspiracy, but after I show you the facts, I think you will change your mind.

我知道這聽起來像是一個陰謀，但在我向你展示事實之後，我想你會改變主意的。

So if you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive right into it.

所以，如果你已經準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們直接進入主題。

The first argument that they are telling us that there is a huge shortage of supply of houses in the market, and that's why house prices are so insanely high.

第一個論點是，他們告訴我們，市場上的房屋供應嚴重不足，所以房價才會高得離譜。

There are so many buyers in the market chasing too few houses and the data suggests that we are actually building more houses and the number of houses in the market is growing, which is why most likely sometime in the future, in a couple of years from now, house prices are going to stabilize.

市場上有太多的買家在追逐太少的房子，而數據顯示，我們實際上正在建造更多的房子，市場上的房子數量也在增長，這就是為什麼很有可能在未來的某個時候，也就是幾年之後，房價會趨於穩定。

But over the last couple of years, we have been building more and more houses and nothing actually helped.

但在過去的幾年裡，我們建造了越來越多的房屋，卻沒有任何實際幫助。

And that's because 15 million houses right now in the market are vacant.

這是因為目前市場上有 1500 萬套房屋空置。

If we dump all of these houses today into the market, house prices are going to crash and will make it possible for the average person to buy a house.

如果我們今天把這些房子全部投入市場，房價就會暴跌，普通人就有可能買到房子。

Why do we have 15 million vacant houses anyways?

為什麼我們會有 1500 萬套空置房？

Why aren't these people are actually selling those houses if they don't need them?

如果他們不需要這些房子，為什麼不賣掉呢？

Why aren't they lowering prices to be able to sell them?

Top 10% of Americans own 45% of all the houses in the market, especially single-family homes.

前 10%的美國人擁有市場上 45% 的房屋，尤其是獨戶住宅。

And when you are sitting on so many houses, you purchase them for investment purposes, so you are not going to sell them just because someone else needs a house, you are going to sell them to make a profit or rent them for a higher price, which is what the top 10% of Americans are doing who own literally almost half of all the single-family houses in the country, while the bottom 50% owns less than 10%.

當你坐擁這麼多房子時，你購買這些房子是為了投資，所以你不會因為別人需要房子就賣掉它們，你會賣掉它們來賺取利潤，或者以更高的價格出租它們，這就是排名前 10%的美國人正在做的事情，他們擁有全國近一半的獨棟房屋，而排名後 50%的人擁有的獨棟房屋還不到 10%。

So there is a middle class who owns houses that they live in, but almost half of the houses in the country are being owned by investors.

是以，中產階級擁有自己居住的房屋，但全國幾乎一半的房屋都歸投資者所有。

Especially in recent years, especially in the last 10 years, private equity and institutional investors saw a great opportunity in the housing market and they started buying them.

特別是近年來，尤其是最近 10 年，私募股權和機構投資者看到了住房市場的巨大商機，開始購買住房。

And now they are not simply going to lower their prices.

而現在，他們不僅僅是要降低價格。

And that is the fundamental problem with the housing market today.

這就是當今房地產市場的根本問題所在。

However, why can't we simply just build more houses?

然而，為什麼我們不能乾脆建造更多的房屋呢？

Yes, they have actually purchased all of these houses, but developers can simply start building more houses and that will significantly increase the supply of houses, which will force all of these investors who are sitting on millions, let me tell you, 15 million empty houses, and it will force them to either sell them or rent them at a lower price.

是的，他們實際上已經購買了所有這些房屋，但開發商只需開始建造更多的房屋，這將大大增加房屋的供應量，這將迫使所有這些坐擁數百萬（讓我告訴你，1500 萬套空房）的投資者，迫使他們要麼出售這些房屋，要麼以較低的價格出租這些房屋。

Well, if it was that easy, we could have actually solved the problem long time ago.

好吧，如果真有那麼容易，我們其實早就可以解決這個問題了。

The real problem why we can't build more houses is because of the policies that we have passed.

我們無法建造更多房屋的真正原因在於我們通過的政策。

So you have an entire land in the city or a county, and most of that land is allocated for different purposes.

是以，在一個城市或一個縣有一整片土地，其中大部分土地被分配用於不同的用途。

This part of the city is for agriculture.

城市的那一部分是用來建公寓的。

This part of the city is for single family houses.

And there are also laws that says that for every single apartment or for every single duplex or a single family house that you build, there must be a certain number of parking lots.

此外，還有法律規定，每建造一棟公寓、一棟複式樓或一棟獨棟別墅，都必須有一定數量的停車場。

And if you look at the map, you suddenly realize that most of the land is allocated for single family houses.

如果你看看地圖，就會突然意識到，大部分土地都被分配給了獨棟別墅。

Everything that you see in purple is allocated for single family homes.

您所看到的紫色部分都是分配給獨戶住宅的。

Now the problem with single family houses is that they are huge, they take much bigger land and they are much more expensive.

現在，獨棟別墅的問題在於它們規模龐大，佔地面積更大，價格也更高。

The vast majority of first home buyers would gladly just buy an apartment or a duplex or a triplex that is much cheaper.

絕大多數首次置業者都願意購買公寓、複式樓或三層樓房，因為這些房子的價格要便宜得多。

But you cannot possibly build them because most of the area is allocated for single family houses.

但你不可能建造它們，因為大部分區域都被分配給了獨棟別墅。

In some places, that's like 80% of the land in the entire city.

在有些地方，這相當於整個城市 80% 的土地。

If we change the zoning laws tomorrow and you are allowed to build any kind of places or any kind of apartments or duplexes or buildings in any part of the city, suddenly you will have a bunch of developers who will jump in and they will build so many apartments that are much cheaper than single family houses or they will build duplexes or triplexes which are cheaper than single family houses and house prices are going to crash tomorrow.

如果我們明天修改分區法，允許在城市的任何地方建造任何類型的場所、任何類型的公寓、複式樓或樓房，突然就會有一大批開發商跳進來，他們會建造許多比獨棟別墅便宜得多的公寓，或者建造比獨棟別墅便宜的複式樓或三層樓房，房價明天就會暴跌。

Which is why homeowners, in this case, institutional investors who have the vast power or the voting power to rule how zoning is supposed to be, are going to force these politicians to pass laws to prevent changing the current laws so that the housing market is not going to crash.

這就是為什麼房主們，在這種情況下，也就是擁有巨大權力或投票權的機構投資者們，要迫使這些政客們通過法律，阻止改變現行法律，從而避免房地產市場崩潰。

And this is the fundamental reason why there is a huge shortage of houses in the market.

這也是市場上房屋供不應求的根本原因。

We have been building houses for the entire of human history.

在整個人類歷史中，我們一直在建造房屋。

If we actually take the pure technology and the pure materials, there are developers who can literally build thousands of houses in a few months.

如果我們真正採用純技術和純材料，有些開發商真的可以在幾個月內建造數千套房屋。

You can see sometimes China that builds literally entire apartment blocks in a matter of 2 months.

有時，你可以看到中國在兩個月內就建好了整棟公寓樓。

Of course, something like that is most likely not happening in the US, but nonetheless, you can build those apartments that will fix the housing problem instantly.

當然，這樣的事情很可能不會在美國發生，但儘管如此，你還是可以建造這些公寓，立即解決住房問題。

But unless you change the zoning laws first, that is not possible.

但除非先修改分區法，否則這是不可能的。

Prior to 2008 financial crisis or prior to the housing crash, almost 80% of all the houses were being owned by people who live in them.

在 2008 年金融危機或房地產崩盤之前，幾乎 80% 的房屋都是由居住在其中的人所擁有。

So housing before 2008 wasn't seen as an investment opportunity.

是以，在 2008 年之前，住房並不被視為一種投資機會。

You would just buy a house and in that house, you are going to live.

你只需買一棟房子，然後在那棟房子裡生活。

Which is why only 20% of the market was owned by investors who purchased these houses for the sake of investments.

這就是為什麼只有 20% 的市場由投資者擁有，他們購買這些房屋是為了投資。

They would rent them out or they would literally just flip them and sell them for a higher price later on.

他們會把這些房子租出去，或者乾脆把它們翻過來，以後以更高的價格賣掉。

When the financial crisis of 2008 happened, house prices dropped dramatically.

2008 年金融危機爆發後，房價大幅下跌。

And that's when the federal reserve stepped in to save the housing market.

就在這時，美聯儲出手拯救了房地產市場。

That's when also investors saw a golden opportunity, so they jumped in and they started massively buying those houses.

這時，投資者也看到了千載難逢的機會，於是他們紛紛加入，開始大量購買這些房屋。

Starting from 2008 up until 2022, the federal reserve was subsidizing mortgage rates by massively spending trillions of dollars annually to buy mortgage-backed securities in the market that artificially lowered mortgage rates, which allowed those investors to take huge mortgages and buy all of those houses.

從2008年開始到2022年，美聯儲每年花費數萬億美元在市場上購買抵押貸款支持證券，人為壓低抵押貸款利率，從而補貼抵押貸款利率，這使得這些投資者可以獲得鉅額抵押貸款，購買所有這些房屋。

And that made buying a house very difficult for the average American.

這使得普通美國人買房變得非常困難。

Back in 2024, first, the number of first-time buyers was 1.1 million.

首先，在 2024 年，首次購房者人數為 110 萬。

這是自 1989 年以來的最低數字。

Back in 1989, the population of the United States was 240, today it's 340.

1989 年，美國人口為 240 人，今天則達到了 340 人。

So the population has increased by 100 million and yet the number of first-time homebuyers have actually went down to 1989.

是以，人口增加了 1 億，但首次購房者的數量實際上卻下降到了 1989 年。

That's how difficult it became to buy your first house.

Now, if you have purchased one house, it's much easier to buy a second one.

現在，如果您已經買了一套房子，再買第二套房子就容易多了。

是以，最困難的部分是第一部分。

Since 1990s, inflation, if you don't count the last couple of years, was about 2%.

自 20 世紀 90 年代以來，如果不算最近幾年，通貨膨脹率約為 2%。

If you compare it to wages growth, then wages have actually increased dramatically.

如果將其與工資增長相比，那麼工資實際上已大幅增長。

Back in 1990s, up until the 2008 financial crisis, wages grew by a little over 4%.

在 20 世紀 90 年代，直到 2008 年金融危機爆發前，工資增長率略高於 4%。

After the financial crisis, it began to grow by about 3%.

是以，總的來說，人們變得更富有了。

Because inflation was 2% all this time, well, wages grew between 3-4%.

因為在此期間通脹率一直是 2%，所以工資增長在 3-4% 之間。

So how did we end up in a situation where people cannot buy houses?

那麼，我們怎麼會落到人們無法買房的地步呢？

Where house prices got insanely out of control?

And that's because the government decided to take out house prices out of inflation data so that it won't be illustrated in the inflation data.

這是因為政府決定將房價從通脹數據中剔除，這樣就不會在通脹數據中體現出來。

During the exact same period, from late 1990s up until the 2008 financial crisis, house prices grew by an average of 7-8%.

在同一時期，從 20 世紀 90 年代末到 2008 年金融危機前，房價平均增長了 7-8%。

There were years where house prices would grow by 10%.

Yes, there was a crash in 2008 and house prices stagnated for some time but they quickly recovered and since then, they have been growing by about 7-8% again.

是的，2008 年房價暴跌，房價停滯了一段時間，但很快就恢復了，此後房價又增長了約 7-8%。

Now compare these numbers to the real wages that have been growing.

現在將這些數字與一直在增長的實際工資進行比較。

Now you can see that house prices over time have been growing way faster than wages.

現在你可以看到，隨著時間的推移，房價的增長速度遠遠超過了工資的增長速度。

A single year of such growth isn't going to make a huge difference.

一年的增長並不會帶來巨大的變化。

But every single year is going to compound and over a long period of time, in this case, over a period of 35 years, they have actually gotten insanely high.

但是，每一年都會有複利，在很長一段時間內，在這種情況下，在 35 年的時間裡，它們實際上已經變得高得離譜。

Even if you literally just compare 2022 and 2021 where house prices grew by 18%, wages grew by just 6.5% while inflation was 8.1%.

即使只從字面上比較 2022 年和 2021 年，房價增長了 18%，工資僅增長了 6.5%，而通貨膨脹率為 8.1%。

Do you see how deceptive the numbers are?

你看到這些數字有多大的欺騙性了嗎？

Do you see why you can't trust inflation data today?

你明白為什麼今天的通脹數據不可信了嗎？

Because if you follow inflation data, you supposed to be way wealthier.

因為如果你關注通貨膨脹數據，你應該會更富有。

That pushed people to rent more which is the main reason why rent prices today are insanely high.

這促使人們更多地租房，這也是如今房租價格高得離譜的主要原因。

If you want to bring down rent prices, just make housing more affordable because the vast majority of people will most likely buy houses since you are building equity and if you are settling down, why would you rent for your entire life when you can buy a house.

如果你想降低房租價格，只需讓人們更能負擔得起住房，因為絕大多數人很可能會買房，因為你正在積累資產，如果你要安家落戶，既然可以買房，為什麼還要租一輩子呢？

And that has been happening for the last 40 years.

而這種情況在過去 40 年裡一直在發生。

Back in 1980s, 3.6 times of a single household would equal to a single price of a median house.

在 20 世紀 80 年代，一個家庭的 3.6 倍相當於中位數房屋的單價。

Which basically means that house prices have been increasing way faster than average wages since the government took out the house prices from the CPI data.

這基本上意味著，自從政府將房價從 CPI 數據中剔除後，房價的增長速度遠遠超過了平均工資的增長速度。

The real question now is, how can we fix the problem?

現在真正的問題是，我們如何才能解決問題？

There is a very easy and simple way to change it.

有一個簡單易行的方法可以改變它。

Just allow for more other type of houses to be built.

允許建造更多其他類型的房屋。

Let more apartments to be built instead of single family homes.

Let more duplexes or triplexes to be built.

讓更多的複式樓或三層樓房建成。

But that most likely is not going to happen because homeowners have a lot of power over politicians.

但這很可能不會發生，因為房主對政客有很大的影響力。

They are going to force them to keep the current laws which will prevent more apartments or duplexes or triplexes to be built.

他們將迫使他們保留現行法律，從而阻止建造更多的公寓、複式樓或三層樓房。