Name: 股市繁榮才剛剛開始 (The Stock Market Boom is Just Getting Started)
Uploaded: 2025-08-24T18:05:01.000Z
Duration: 18 min 9 s

情態副詞

Three weeks ago, I made a video explaining why the Federal Reserve for a fact is going to cut the interest rates this September and I told you that the unemployment rate is probably the most important indicator based on everything that we have seen that the Fed has been doing over the last 50 years that it mostly relies on the unemployment rate in order to raise the interest rates or lower the interest rates.

三週前，我製作了一個視頻，解釋了為什麼美聯儲會在今年 9 月降息，我告訴大家，失業率可能是最重要的指標，根據我們所看到的美聯儲在過去 50 年裡所做的一切，美聯儲主要依靠失業率來提高或降低利率。

程度副詞

And just yesterday, the chairman of the Fed gave a whole 20 minutes speech at Jackson Hall explaining, I mean hinting that, most likely that is going to happen and he literally gave the exact same reasons that I gave you, but he told us a lot more.

就在昨天，美聯儲主席在傑克遜大廳發表了整整20分鐘的演講，解釋說，我是說暗示，這很可能會發生，他給出的理由和我給你的完全一樣，但他告訴了我們更多。

So here in this video, let me explain to you exactly what he said at Jackson Hall and why the probability of interest rate cuts this September have only increased.

是以，在這段視頻中，我將向您解釋他在傑克遜大廳所說的話，以及為什麼今年 9 月降息的可能性只增不減。

So if you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

所以，如果你準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們馬上進入正題。

According to JPol, inflation has moved much closer to our objective and the labor market had cooled from its formerly overheated state.

根據 JPol 的報告，通脹率已更加接近我們的目標，勞動力市場也從之前的過熱狀態有所降溫。

Inflation was actually very high in 2022 and the path to 2.6% inflation rate has actually been very painful for the entire economy and pretty much everybody because at this point, everybody is like, we want lower interest rates.

2022 年的通脹率實際上非常高，而通脹率達到 2.6% 的道路實際上對整個經濟和幾乎所有人來說都是非常痛苦的，因為在這一點上，每個人都想，我們想要更低的利率。

Yes, we haven't actually reached the target of 2% inflation rate.

是的，我們實際上還沒有達到 2% 的通脹率目標。

Just to give you a little hint, that's also a change in the policy of the Federal Reserve, but we will get into that.

給你一點提示，這也是美聯儲政策的變化，但我們會討論這個問題。

Anyways, the point is that inflation has cooled down and even unemployment is cooling down, which is cooling down the entire economy.

總之，問題的關鍵在於通貨膨脹已經降溫，甚至失業率也在降溫，這使得整個經濟降溫。

Upside risk to inflation has diminished, so there is no longer a huge risk that inflation will go above 4% or 5% or to levels that we have seen back in 2022 and 2023.

通脹的上行風險已經降低，是以通脹超過 4% 或 5% 或達到 2022 年和 2023 年水準的巨大風險已經不復存在。

That risk is no longer there in the economy.

這種風險在經濟中已不復存在。

But the unemployment rate had increased by almost a full percentage point, a development that historically has not occurred outside the recession.

但失業率幾乎上升了整整一個百分點，這是歷史上在經濟衰退之外從未出現過的情況。

So when you have a single full percentage drop in unemployment rate, that's a clear sign the economy is in a recession.

是以，當失業率出現整整一個百分點的下降時，這就是經濟陷入衰退的明顯跡象。

However, if you pull out the data, we are not yet in a recession.

然而，如果你拿出數據，我們還沒有陷入衰退。

However, all the data indicates, including a full percentage drop in unemployment rate, that a recession is probably going to happen in the foreseeable future unless we change the policy.

然而，所有數據（包括失業率整整下降了一個百分點）都表明，除非我們改變政策，否則在可預見的將來，經濟衰退很可能會發生。

So the Fed confirms that the probability of a recession is only rising.

是以，美聯儲證實，經濟衰退的概率只會上升。

At the same time, GDP growth has slowed down notably in the first half of this year to a pace of 1.2%, roughly half of the 2.5% pace in 2024.

與此同時，今年上半年的國內生產總值增速明顯放緩，僅為 1.2%，約為 2024 年 2.5%增速的一半。

Last year, even though that wasn't the real GDP but the overall GDP has increased by 2.5%, this year, the slowdown is very clear for multiple reasons.

去年，儘管這不是實際 GDP，但總體 GDP 增長了 2.5%，而今年，由於多種原因，經濟放緩的趨勢非常明顯。

There was already one negative GDP quarter growth this year, of course, we didn't have two consecutive negative GDP growth that would be characterized as a recession, but the slowdown in GDP is very clear.

今年已經出現了一個季度的國內生產總值負增長，當然，我們並沒有出現連續兩個季度的國內生產總值負增長，這並不能被定性為經濟衰退，但國內生產總值的放緩是非常明顯的。

If the trend continues, again, a recession is imminent.

如果這一趨勢繼續下去，那麼經濟衰退同樣迫在眉睫。

The decline in growth has largely reflected the slowdown in consumer spending.

增長的下降在很大程度上反映了消費支出的放緩。

Despite all of that printing money in the last couple of years, there is a very clear slowdown in spending.

儘管過去幾年印了那麼多鈔票，但消費明顯放緩。

Yes, there is so much money in the economy, but the rate that that money is being circulating in the economy has dropped significantly low, which is one of the reasons that we are not having very high inflation.

是的，經濟中有這麼多錢，但這些錢在經濟中的流通速度卻大大降低了，這也是我們的通貨膨脹率不是很高的原因之一。

The Fed have also talked about the tariffs, that the effect of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible.

美聯儲也談到了關稅問題，認為關稅對消費者價格的影響現在已清晰可見。

You can see that prices are rising and the fundamental reason behind it are the tariffs that have been put in place since April of this year.

你可以看到，價格正在上漲，其背後的根本原因是今年 4 月以來實施的關稅。

Now, it will take time for all these tariffs to have full impact on the entire economy, because at certain times or at certain periods of the entire supply chain, some of these businesses are swallowing these tariffs.

現在，所有這些關稅對整個經濟產生全面影響還需要時間，因為在整個供應鏈的某些時候或某些時期，其中一些企業正在吞下這些關稅。

So for example, if you're bringing something from China, maybe in the beginning of that stage, that factory in China is going to swallow part of that cost.

是以，舉例來說，如果你從中國引進某種產品，也許在開始階段，中國的工廠會承擔部分成本。

Then maybe part of that cost will be moved and shifted to the distributor who's going to buy that thing from China and bring it to the United States.

然後，也許部分成本會被轉移到分銷商身上，由他們從中國購買並運到美國。

And then there is multiple people within that supply chain that will carry that cost.

然後，供應鏈中的多人將承擔這一成本。

Yes, we can already see an increase in price in the final prices within the consumers, but that price increase will have to adjust through the entire supply chain.

是的，我們已經可以看到消費者的最終價格有所上漲，但這種價格上漲必須通過整個供應鏈進行調整。

So the final increase in prices because of the tariffs is going to be much higher than they are right now, but the Fed will most likely wants to avoid a scenario where prices will continue keep rising and that will turn into a persistent inflation instead of a one-time increase in prices.

是以，關稅導致的最終物價上漲將比現在高得多，但美聯儲很可能希望避免出現物價持續上漲的情況，這將變成持續性通脹，而不是一次性物價上漲。

The biggest risk that the Fed sees is that higher prices could lead to workers demanding higher wages and that could turn to higher prices and it might turn into a never-ending cycle.

美聯儲認為最大的風險是，物價上漲可能導致工人要求提高工資，進而導致物價上漲，這可能會變成一個永無止境的循環。

So imagine you're making like $50,000 and suddenly prices have increased so much that your $50,000 is no longer enough to pay for all of your bills.

試想一下，你的收入是 5 萬美元，突然物價飛漲，你的 5 萬美元已經不足以支付所有的賬單。

You're going to go to your boss and say, listen, boss.

你要去對你的老闆說，聽著，老闆。

I understand everything, but prices have increased.

我什麼都明白，但物價上漲了。

I got to pay more for the basic necessities.

我得為基本必需品支付更多的錢。

So I want a raise or I'm quitting and I will go and find another job.

所以我想要加薪，否則我就辭職，我會去找另一份工作。

你的老闆會說，好吧，沒問題。

Here is an increase of $5,000 or $10,000.

這裡增加了 5000 美元或 10000 美元。

And then suddenly your boss is like, I got to increase my prices because I have just increased the wages.

然後你的老闆突然說，我得漲價了，因為我剛提高了工資。

Those prices will again lead to higher prices in the market, which again will force people to go on demand for higher wages.

這些價格將再次導致市場價格上漲，從而再次迫使人們去要求更高的工資。

The Federal Reserve wants to avoid that, but still, it can see a risk of that happening in the foreseeable future.

美聯儲希望避免這種情況的發生，但在可預見的未來，美聯儲仍能看到發生這種情況的風險。

Another thing that the Fed actually paid a lot of attention to is that many here will recall the sluggish growth and painful slow recovery of that era.

美聯儲實際上非常關注的另一件事是，在座的許多人都會記得那個時代的低迷增長和痛苦的緩慢復甦。

It's talking about the 2008 financial crisis.

I told you multiple times that even, I mean, I see a lot of people don't realize the importance and the profound impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the entire US economy.

我告訴過你很多次，我是說，我看到很多人都沒有意識到 2008 年金融危機對整個美國經濟的重要性和深遠影響。

You can literally just take the United States and even the Federal Reserve itself and literally just cut it in half pre 2008 and after 2008.

你完全可以把美國甚至美聯儲本身在 2008 年前和 2008 年後削減一半。

The fundamental way how the Fed works has primarily changed since 2008 because the crisis was so big that it literally took years and so much effort to let the economy grow again.

自 2008 年以來，美聯儲的基本運作方式發生了重大變化，因為這場危機實在是太大了，以至於需要花費數年時間和大量精力才能讓經濟恢復增長。

It was in such a state that it seemed like the GDP will continue shrinking and that's why the Fed started quantitative easing, something that, honestly, I never thought is actually even possible.

在這種情況下，國內生產總值似乎將繼續萎縮，這就是美聯儲開始量化寬鬆政策的原因，說實話，我從來沒有想過這是真的。

It appeared highly likely that if the economy experienced even a mild downturn, our policy rate would be back at the ELB very quickly, probably for another extended period.

如果經濟出現哪怕是輕微的下滑，我們的政策利率就很有可能很快回到 ELB 水準，而且很有可能會再延長一段時間。

So the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to 0%, that's not happening, that's not helping the economy.

是以，美聯儲將利率降至 0%，這是不可能的，這對經濟毫無幫助。

It starts buying all of the securities in the market to push the economy to grow.

它開始購買市場上的所有證券，推動經濟增長。

And the Fed was worried, we are having literally 0% interest rate and the economy is not growing.

美聯儲很擔心，我們的利率簡直是 0%，而經濟卻沒有增長。

So and that actually lasted for like 7 years, imagine having for so many years super low interest rates and yet the economy is not growing and yet we are seeing very slow growth.

是以，這種情況實際上持續了 7 年之久，試想一下，在這麼多年的超低利率下，經濟卻沒有增長，而我們看到的增長卻非常緩慢。

And that didn't happen for a year or two or three, it literally happened like for almost a decade if not more than that.

這種情況不是發生在一兩年或三年間，而是發生在近十年甚至更長的時間裡。

And that's why at the end of 2021, they thought that inflation would subside fairly quickly without a sharp tightening in our policy stunt.

這就是為什麼在 2021 年底，他們認為如果我們不大幅收緊政策，通脹會很快消退。

We lowered interest rates to 0% in 2020 because they have been at 0% since 2009 and they didn't cause inflation, so the Fed was very confident that it's not gonna cause massive inflation.

我們在 2020 年將利率下調至 0%，因為利率自 2009 年以來一直處於 0%的水準，而且沒有引起通貨膨脹，所以美聯儲非常有信心不會引起大規模通貨膨脹。

I mean, it didn't cause massive inflation for 7 years when the rates were 0%.

我的意思是，在利率為 0% 的 7 年裡，它並沒有引起大規模通貨膨脹。

And we have increased only the rates to about 3%.

Yes, we got them to 0% again to prevent such a crash again.

是的，我們又把它們降到了 0%，以防止再次發生這樣的崩潰。

So the Federal Reserve was actually surprised that 2 years of 0% interest rate caused such inflation when 7 years of 0% inflation rate didn't cause that inflation in the first place.

是以，美聯儲實際上對 2 年的 0% 利率導致瞭如此嚴重的通貨膨脹感到驚訝，而 7 年的 0% 通脹率首先並沒有導致通貨膨脹。

And it wasn't just 0% inflation rate after 2008, it was also massive quantitative easing in the market.

2008 年之後，不僅通脹率為 0%，市場上還出現了大規模量化寬鬆政策。

We cannot say for a fact where rates will settle over the long run, but their natural level may now be higher than during the 2010s, reflecting changes in productivity, demographics, fiscal policy, and other factors that affect the balance between savings and investment.

我們無法斷言利率將長期穩定在什麼水準，但其自然水準現在可能高於 2010 年代，這反映了生產力、人口結構、財政政策以及影響儲蓄和投資平衡的其他因素的變化。

So the Federal Reserve is telling us that the era of 0% interest rate is over, at least in the foreseeable future, that's not happening.

是以，美聯儲告訴我們，0% 利率時代已經結束，至少在可預見的未來，這種情況不會發生。

If you look at the effect of interest rates, you will see that there was only one period in the history of the Federal Reserve where interest rates were 0%, this is it, you can see the era over here.

如果你看看利率的影響，就會發現在美聯儲的歷史上，只有一個時期的利率是 0%，就是這個時期，你可以看到這個時代就在這裡。

Now prior to 2009, yes, there were low interest rates, but the lowest we could see them was about 1.5%.

2009 年之前，利率的確很低，但最低也只有 1.5%左右。

If you even take this out, you can see that the average interest rate was about 5%, 6%, 8%.

如果把這個也去掉，就會發現平均利率約為 5%、6%、8%。

And then this was the longest period in the history of the Federal Reserve, that we had the interest rates from 2009 to 2016 or 2017 probably, 0% interest rate.

然後，這是美聯儲歷史上最長的一段時期，從 2009 年到 2016 年或 2017 年，我們的利率大概是 0%。

And this period didn't cause any kind of inflation, the economy wasn't growing that much at all during this period.

這一時期並沒有引起任何形式的通貨膨脹，這一時期的經濟增長並不明顯。

And then they lowered them again to 0% in 2020 and 2021.

2020 年和 2021 年，他們又將其降至 0%。

And because now it actually caused real inflation, the inflation that probably the highest inflation in 40 years, the Fed is telling us, listen, the data suggests that from now onwards, this 0% inflation rate is not happening.

因為現在它實際上造成了真正的通貨膨脹，這種通貨膨脹可能是 40 年來最高的通貨膨脹，美聯儲告訴我們，聽著，數據表明，從現在開始，這種 0% 的通貨膨脹率不會發生了。

So even if we are going to start the journey of cutting interest rates, we might cut them to 3%, 2.5%, 2%, maybe best case scenario, 1.5%.

是以，即使我們要開始降息之旅，我們也可能將利率降至 3%、2.5%、2%，也許最好的情況是 1.5%。

But this kind of low interest rates is no longer happening.

但這種低利率的情況已不復存在。

Now the final fact is that, or the most important thing, why do we know that he's going to cut the interest rates is that we return to a framework of flexible inflation targeting.

現在，最後一個事實是，或者說最重要的一點是，為什麼我們知道他會降息，因為我們回到了靈活的通脹目標框架。

So it's basically saying that until recently, we had a very clear goal, a 2% inflation rate.

是以，這基本上是說，直到最近，我們都有一個非常明確的目標，即 2% 的通脹率。

Unless we reach that target, we're not going to do anything.

除非達到這個目標，否則我們什麼也做不了。

But now they're saying is that we're going to change our policy.

但現在他們說我們要改變政策。

Yes, over the long run, we want to see inflation at 2%.

是的，從長遠來看，我們希望看到通脹率達到 2%。

But in the short run, we are going to be very flexible.

但在短期內，我們會非常靈活。

是以，我們的通貨膨脹率為 2.6%。

我的意思是，這並不是什麼大不了的事。

As long as we tag the long time framework and it's about 2%, it's fine.

只要我們標記了長時間框架，而且它的比例在 2% 左右，那就沒問題。

So in the short run, in order for us to balance between our dual mandate, which is maximum employment and stable inflation, we might actually cut interest rates.

是以，在短期內，為了平衡我們的雙重任務，即最大限度的就業和穩定的通貨膨脹，我們實際上可能會降低利率。

是的，通貨膨脹率約為 2.6%、2.7%。

Maybe next year, it's not going to be even 2%.

It might be 2.4%, but we will lower interest rates in order to ensure that the economy has maximum employment and there is not going to be a recession.

可能是 2.4%，但我們會降低利率，以確保經濟有最大限度的就業，不會出現衰退。

In fact, maybe by the end of the year, we might see a full 1% drop in interest rates by December of this year in order to avoid a possible recession.

事實上，也許到今年年底，為了避免可能出現的經濟衰退，到今年 12 月，我們可能會看到利率下降整整 1%。

The most important question that you should be asking is that which stocks that you should be focusing when we are going to have lower interest rates.

您應該問的最重要的問題是，當我們的利率降低時，您應該關注哪些股票。

The first most important simple thing that lower interest rates will do is that the cost of borrowing money will become much cheaper.

降低利率的第一件最重要的簡單事情就是，借錢的成本將大大降低。

So naturally, if you have companies that are investing in new projects, so imagine you open this factory and based on your analysis that you have made, this factory is going to generate 8% return.

是以，自然而然地，如果有公司在投資新項目，那麼想象一下，你開辦了這家工廠，根據你的分析，這家工廠將產生 8%的回報。

So you are going to borrow the money and you will build this factory.

所以，你打算借錢建這個工廠。

If interest rates are 5% or 6% and you borrow that money at 6% and you make 8%, now your profit margin is 2% in this case.

如果利率是 5%或 6%，你以 6%的利率借錢，賺了 8%，那麼在這種情況下，你的利潤率就是 2%。

But if we lower interest rates to 3% and you are making 8%, your profit margin has increased from 2% to 5%.

但是，如果我們把利率降到 3%，而你的利潤是 8%，那麼你的利潤率就從 2%增加到了 5%。

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股市繁榮才剛剛開始 (The Stock Market Boom is Just Getting Started)

literally

entire

massive

opportunity