Name: 政府正在掩蓋經濟衰退（情況比你想象的更糟） (Government is Hiding a Recession (It's Worse Than You Think))
Uploaded: 2025-08-15T18:23:10.000Z
Duration: 12 min 35 s

程度副詞

難道美聯儲剛剛取消了經濟衰退？

The federal reserve kept the rates unchanged.

And that led many people to believe that the recession is not going to happen.

這讓很多人相信，經濟衰退不會發生。

Because if there was a clear sign of a recession, the federal reserve would have done something in order to prevent a recession or any kind of a financial crisis.

因為如果有明顯的衰退跡象，美聯儲就會採取行動，以防止衰退或任何形式的金融危機。

Because if you watched the meeting very carefully, Jay Powell hinted clearly that, we are actually expecting a recession and there is a very good reason why we haven't lowered the rates.

因為如果你仔細觀察了這次會議，傑伊-鮑威爾明確暗示，我們實際上預計會出現經濟衰退，我們不降低利率是有很好的理由的。

Because if the fed is going to be very obvious about the fact that there is a recession coming, that will cause panic and chaos within the entire market and it could lead into a self-fulfilling prophecy where the recession is going to happen much faster and it will be much worse.

因為如果美聯儲非常明顯地表示經濟衰退即將到來，這將在整個市場中引起恐慌和混亂，並可能導致自我實現的預言，即經濟衰退會發生得更快，情況會更糟。

So here in this video, let's take a look at the facts and the numbers and the data and you will see that clearly for yourself.

是以，在這段視頻中，讓我們來看看事實、數字和數據，你自己就會清楚地看到這一點。

The better you understand the dynamic of the economy, the better you know when there is a recession coming, the more you can prepare yourself and take advantage out of it.

你越瞭解經濟的動態，就越能知道經濟衰退何時到來，就越能做好準備並從中獲益。

So give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

所以，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們馬上進入正題。

The fed has been lowering interest rates since the end of last year and they have lowered them down from around 5.5 percent to around 4.5 percent.

自去年年底以來，美聯儲一直在降低利率，他們已將利率從 5.5% 左右降至 4.5% 左右。

That has been really great news for because lowering interest rates leads to a stock market rally.

這確實是個好消息，因為降低利率會導致股市上漲。

On the other side, lowering interest rates directly means that the fed is expecting a recession or a financial crisis so we need to give the economy some kind of a boost in order to prevent that recession from happening, in order to prevent that economic crash to happen, which is why we are lowering down interest rates.

另一方面，降低利率直接意味著美聯儲預計經濟會出現衰退或金融危機，是以我們需要給經濟一些刺激，以防止衰退的發生，防止經濟崩潰的發生，這就是我們降低利率的原因。

But there is something that a lot of people haven't been paying a lot of attention to.

但有一點，很多人都沒有注意到。

It has been actually tightening the economy since 2022 when we had massive inflation over here.

實際上，自 2022 年我們這裡出現大規模通貨膨脹以來，經濟一直在緊縮。

This is the balance sheet of the fed and you can clearly see that they have been actually getting rid of all of those assets in order to prevent the economy from having hyperinflation.

這是美聯儲的資產負債表，你可以清楚地看到，為了防止經濟出現惡性通貨膨脹，他們實際上一直在拋售所有這些資產。

We are going to lower down our quantitative easing from 25 billion dollars to as less as 5 billion dollars.

我們將把量化寬鬆政策的規模從 250 億美元降低到 50 億美元。

Quantitative easing is the opposite of easing.

When the government or the fed wants to flat the money within the economy, there is an entire process with it.

當政府或美聯儲想在經濟體內平抑貨幣時，有一個完整的過程。

It's not like just the fed prints the money and simply gives it to everybody else.

這並不是說美聯儲印了錢，就直接給其他人了。

There is something called open market, where the fed is going to buy, for example, US government bonds and by holding US government bonds, the fed gives the money to the government and then the government spends that money on infrastructure projects, on education projects, on the military, and that's how money goes through the entire economy.

有一種叫做公開市場的東西，美聯儲會購買美國政府債券，通過持有美國政府債券，美聯儲把錢交給政府，然後政府把錢花在基礎設施項目、教育項目和軍事上，錢就是這樣在整個經濟中流動的。

And because these bonds are debt, there is a maturity date for it, which means that sooner or later, you have to pay back that money.

因為這些債券是債務，所以有到期日，這意味著你遲早要還錢。

But when these bonds mature and the government has to pay back the fed the money that it actually owns, what does the fed does?

但當這些債券到期，政府必須向美聯儲償還其實際擁有的資金時，美聯儲會怎麼做？

Exactly, it simply reinvest that money, giving the government much more time to pay it back.

沒錯，它只是將這些錢再投資，讓政府有更多的時間來償還。

But the process is very interesting that quantitative easing is flooding the market with the cheap money, quantitative tightening is taking that money out of the economy in order to slow down the economy.

但這一過程非常有趣，量化寬鬆政策讓廉價資金充斥市場，而量化緊縮政策則把這些資金從經濟中抽走，以減緩經濟發展速度。

Because the less dollars are within the entire economy, the more valuable the dollars are going to become.

因為在整個經濟中，美元越少，美元就越值錢。

So if you are having massive inflation, you need to do massive quantitative tightening to get that money out of the economy.

是以，如果出現大規模通脹，就需要採取大規模量化緊縮政策，將資金從經濟中抽離出來。

So up until today, the fed has been getting 25 billion dollars out of the economy every single month.

所以直到今天，美聯儲每個月都從經濟中抽走 250 億美元。

On one side, it slowed down inflation, but it has also slowed down economic growth.

一方面，它減緩了通貨膨脹，但同時也減緩了經濟增長。

So we are only going to get 5 billion dollars out of the economy every single month instead of 25 billion dollars like we used to do it up until recently.

是以，我們每個月只能從經濟中獲得 50 億美元，而不是像不久前那樣獲得 250 億美元。

That is a clear sign that the fed is very worried about the state of the economy and it wants that money and it wants that cheap money to still remain within the entire economy and it does not want to further lower down its balance sheet.

這清楚地表明，美聯儲非常擔心經濟狀況，它希望這些錢，希望這些廉價的錢仍然留在整個經濟中，而不想進一步降低其資產負債表。

Now it will take the government at least 5 months to take out of the economy the exact same amount that it did in the last single month.

現在，政府至少需要 5 個月的時間才能從經濟中拿出與上個月完全相同的數額。

Just imagine how many more years its going to take the government or the fed in this case to take all of that cheap money out of the economy.

試想一下，在這種情況下，政府或美聯儲還需要多少年才能把這些廉價資金從經濟中抽走。

But that cheap money is going to stimulate the economy, on the other side, it is still going to cause some real inflation.

但是，廉價貨幣在刺激經濟的同時，也會引發一些實際的通貨膨脹。

The fundamental goal of the federal reserve is to slow down inflation, it is not economic growth.

美聯儲的根本目標是減緩通貨膨脹，而不是經濟增長。

Yes, we want the economy to grow, yes, we want to see the GDP numbers to grow, we want to see the stock market to grow, but the first priority as a fed we have is to slow down inflation.

是的，我們希望經濟增長，是的，我們希望看到 GDP 數字增長，我們希望看到股市增長，但作為美聯儲，我們的首要任務是減緩通脹。

We are not going to risk inflation at the expense of economic growth.

我們不會冒通貨膨脹的風險而犧牲經濟增長。

If it requires for the fed to crush the economy to slow down the inflation, it is going to do that.

如果需要美聯儲壓制經濟以減緩通脹，它就會這麼做。

The expectations for the US GDP growth was 2.1 percent back in December and they have lowered it down to 1.7 percent.

早在 12 月份，人們對美國國內生產總值（GDP）增長的預期是 2.1%，而現在他們已將這一預期下調至 1.7%。

If the economic growth is going down and the projections are going to go down, what does it tell you?

如果經濟增長下降，預測也會下降，這說明了什麼？

Slower economic growth is going to lead to a recession, slower economic growth is going to lead to a financial crisis, and the only reason we can make these kind of expectations is because we are expecting such a problem.

經濟增長放緩會導致經濟衰退，經濟增長放緩會導致金融危機，我們之所以能做出這樣的預期，是因為我們預期會出現這樣的問題。

Back in December, the projections was that the inflation for 2025 is going to be 2.5 percent.

早在 12 月份，預測 2025 年的通貨膨脹率將為 2.5%。

Of course, we are still far away from the 2 percent goal that the fed has in front of itself, but 2.5 percent is actually not bad.

當然，我們離美聯儲設定的 2% 的目標還很遠，但 2.5% 其實也不錯。

However, recent events led the fed to adjust its expectations and because they are also slowing down the quantitative tightening, they are actually forecasting that the inflation for this year is going to be 2.7 percent.

然而，最近發生的事件促使美聯儲調整了預期，由於他們也在放緩量化緊縮政策，他們實際上預測今年的通脹率將為 2.7%。

The third reason that increases the likelihood of a recession is because consumer sentiment has been going down, and that's because of tariffs.

增加經濟衰退可能性的第三個原因是消費者情緒一直在下降，而這是因為關稅。

One of the fundamental important things within the entire economy is what people believe is going to happen to the economy, and that is even far more important than what's happening.

在整個經濟中，最重要的一點是人們相信經濟會發生什麼變化，這甚至比正在發生的事情重要得多。

I know that it sounds counterintuitive, it does not sound logical, but think about it, if people are having positive expectations about the economic growth, they are more likely to spend, they are not going to worry about how they are going to find a job, how they are going to pay the bills, and they are more easy to spend their money.

我知道這聽起來有悖常理，不符合邏輯，但想想看，如果人們對經濟增長抱有積極的預期，他們就更有可能消費，就不會擔心如何找到工作，如何支付賬單，也就更容易花錢。

Any kind of spending within the economy stimulates economic growth, and when you have that perspective within the entire economy, then the economy starts to grow.

經濟中的任何一種支出都會刺激經濟增長，當你在整個經濟中擁有這種觀點時，經濟就會開始增長。

But on the other side, what if we have an opposite situation where people are worried and they are expecting higher prices, they are that's the only way to get financial independence, but if we are talking within the entire economy, we do not want those people to save their money, we want those people to spend their money so that we have higher GDP growth.

但另一方面，如果我們遇到了相反的情況，人們憂心忡忡，他們期待物價上漲，他們認為這是獲得經濟獨立的唯一途徑，但如果我們在整個經濟範圍內討論，我們不希望這些人把錢存起來，我們希望這些人把錢花掉，這樣我們的國內生產總值就會有更高的增長。

But based on this number, consumer sentiment has been going down, people do not believe in the economy as much as they did, and that level has been going down to a slow as it has been back in 2020 and 2023.

但從這一數字來看，消費者情緒一直在下降，人們對經濟的信心不如從前，而且這一水準已經下降到了2020年和2023年時的緩慢水準。

And that's because we have so many tariffs, and that's because we don't know where these tariffs are going to take us to.

這是因為我們有這麼多關稅，這是因為我們不知道這些關稅會把我們帶到哪裡去。

Even the Federal Reserve, J-Poll have mentioned clearly that these tariffs are creating so much uncertainty that we don't even know what kind of policies that we have to take today.

就連美聯儲、J-Poll 都明確提到，這些關稅帶來了太多的不確定性，我們甚至不知道今天要採取什麼樣的政策。

If we lower down interest rates, and we have so much tariffs, it's going to cause massive inflation.

如果我們降低利率，又徵收那麼多關稅，就會引發大規模通貨膨脹。

On the other side, what if the US is going to come to an agreement with Canada, Mexico, China, the European Union, and the rest of the world, and there are not going to be any kind of tariffs.

另一方面，如果美國將與加拿大、墨西哥、中國、歐盟和世界其他國家達成協議，不徵收任何形式的關稅，那又會怎樣呢？

So do we have actually lower down interest rates, or we have to increase interest rates?

那麼，我們究竟是要降低利率，還是要提高利率呢？

I believe that the Fed would actually wanted to increase interest rates, but it did not do that because increasing interest rates at this point is certainly going to have some kind of influence or a serious implication on the US economy, and it would have certainly tagged it into a recession.

我認為，美聯儲其實是想加息的，但它沒有這麼做，因為此時加息肯定會對美國經濟產生某種影響或嚴重的牽連，肯定會使美國經濟陷入衰退。

So instead of increasing interest rates, the Fed decided to do something slightly different, which is actually their quantitative tightening.

是以，美聯儲決定採取略有不同的做法，即實行量化緊縮政策，而不是提高利率。

So that creates a lot of uncertainty, and that drives the consumer sentiment down, and it can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

是以，這就造成了很多不確定性，從而導致消費者情緒低落，這可能會變成一個自我實現的預言。

If people are actually expecting that there is a recession, they will spend less, which actually going to lead to a lower economic growth.

如果人們真的預期經濟會衰退，他們就會減少消費，這實際上會導致經濟增長放緩。

The fourth reason why a recession is coming is because the Fed is planning to actually lower down interest rates, and you can clearly see that in the graph that I have right in front of me.

經濟衰退即將到來的第四個原因是，美聯儲正計劃實際降低利率，你可以從我面前的圖表中清楚地看到這一點。

This is the Fed's dot plot, and each member of the Fed is represented in a yellow dot.

這是美聯儲的點陣圖，每個美聯儲成員都用一個黃點表示。

So the more yellow dot is on the line, the more likely the Fed's officials believe that is going to be the interest rate for that entire year.

是以，線上的黃點越多，美聯儲官員就越有可能認為這將是全年的利率。

So if you take 2025, we have most of the members believe that by the end of this year at least, there are going to be the interest rates will be less than 4%.

是以，如果以 2025 年為例，我們大多數成員都認為，至少到今年年底，利率將低於 4%。

So that is probably something around 3.75%.

Right now, the rates are 4.5%, and that means that there could technically be 3 interest rate cuts by the end of the year.

現在的利率是 4.5%，這意味著到今年年底，技術上可能會有三次降息。

That can actually send the stock market to the moon, unless we are going to have a real recession, and then the stock market is most likely not going to grow as much as we expected it.

這實際上可以把股市送上月球，除非我們將迎來真正的經濟衰退，那麼股市很可能不會像我們預期的那樣增長。

Next year, the Fed expects the rates to be less than 3.5%.

明年，美聯儲預計利率將低於 3.5%。

Following year, it goes down to around a little over 3%, and so on and so forth.

第二年，下降到大約 3%多一點，以此類推。

The reason that there is not any kind of drastic changes that it goes to 1% or 0.5% is because you are not expecting any kind of a financial crisis that could throw the economy into a recession or a serious recession.

之所以沒有發生任何急劇變化，沒有降到 1%或 0.5%，是因為你沒有預期會發生任何可能使經濟陷入衰退或嚴重衰退的金融危機。

See, recessions are not as a big deal as depressions are as a financial crisis like we had in 2020 or 2008.

你看，經濟衰退並不像 2020 年或 2008 年的金融危機那麼嚴重。

If anything like that is going to happen, then the likelihood of lowering the rates to 0% increases dramatically.

如果會發生這樣的事情，那麼將利率降至 0% 的可能性就會大大增加。

But because we are facing such a serious inflation right now, we cannot simply just lower down interest rates as much as we want.

但是，由於我們現在面臨著如此嚴重的通貨膨脹，我們不能想降低利率就降低利率。

We have to lower them down gradually in such a way that they are not going to push inflation above 3% because we have a target to actually reach a 2% interest rate.

我們必須逐步降低利率，使其不會將通脹率推高至 3%以上，因為我們的目標是實際達到 2%的利率。

Because the goal at the end of the day is to at least reach inflation of 2%.

因為最終的目標是至少達到 2% 的通脹率。

But more and more, Fed officials believe that the interest rates are keep going down.

但越來越多的美聯儲官員認為，利率會持續走低。

There are some officials that believe that we are going to keep interest rates at around 4.5%.

一些官員認為，我們將把利率維持在 4.5% 左右。

Some of them believe that even next year, interest rates are still going to be more than 4%.

其中一些人認為，即使到了明年，利率仍將超過 4%。

These people have entire teams who work on understanding the situation on the ground.

這些人的整個團隊都致力於瞭解當地的情況。

They have entire teams to understand what exactly is happening with the economy and how real prices are actually increasing.

他們有整個團隊來了解經濟究竟發生了什麼，實際價格究竟是如何上漲的。

But to be honest, some of this data is not literally accurate because for example, if you take the CPI report, one of the main reports that the Fed relies on, is not literally as accurate as it is.

但老實說，這些數據中有些並不準確，比如說，美聯儲所依賴的主要報告之一--消費物價指數（CPI）報告，就沒有字面上那麼準確。

And it is highly manipulated in order to drive your prices that are more convenient for the vet, that are more convenient for the government in order to lower down inflation.

它受到高度操縱，目的是使價格對獸醫更方便，對政府更方便，以降低通貨膨脹。

Because if they have actually also included asset prices that rise as much as inflation, then those numbers are most likely going to be much higher and we are not going have actually any kind of inflation of 2%.

因為如果他們把與通脹率一樣上漲的資產價格也計算在內，那麼這些數字很可能會更高，而我們實際上不會有任何2%的通脹率。

At the end of the day, the projections of recessions are actually rising because we are slowing down quantitative tightening, the projection for inflation is rising, the consumer sentiment is going down, and more and more Fed members believe that interest rate cuts are still coming by the end of the year when there is going to be a little bit more clarity about the state of the economy and about prices.

說到底，對經濟衰退的預測實際上在上升，因為我們正在放緩量化緊縮的步伐，對通脹的預測在上升，消費者情緒在下降，越來越多的美聯儲成員認為，到今年年底，當經濟狀況和物價更加明朗時，降息仍將到來。

Because the stock market is certainly going to react to that recession if it's going to happen.

因為如果經濟衰退真的發生，股市肯定會做出反應。

The question is that, is that recession is going to be immediate and sudden or it's going to happen gradually.

問題是，經濟衰退是立即和突然發生的，還是逐漸發生的。

But regardless of how that recession is going to happen, whether it's going to be immediate or it's going to be sudden, you have to prepare yourself and take advantage out of it.

但無論經濟衰退是如何發生的，是立即發生還是突然發生，你都必須做好準備，並從中獲益。

Because every opportunity or every crisis presents an opportunity and if you want to really get good at that, make sure to check the link in the description.

因為每一次機會或每一次危機都是一次機遇，如果你想真正掌握這一點，請務必查看說明中的鏈接。

That's it for today guys, thanks for watching and see you in the next one.

今天就到這裡，謝謝大家收看，下期節目再見。