Name: 美聯儲向美國發出危險警告 (Federal Reserve Issues DIRE WARNING For America)
Uploaded: 2025-07-27T18:10:11.000Z
Duration: 8 min 24 s

基礎被動語態

So the chairman of the fed was questioned by the house for at least 3 hours and the senate for another 2 hours today whether he is planning to lower down the interest rates.

是以，美聯儲主席今天至少被眾議院質詢了 3 個小時，又被參議院質詢了 2 個小時，問他是否打算降低利率。

程度副詞

Everyone is just waiting for him to finally lower down interest rates.

So here in this video, let me break down everything for you and you don't have to watch 5 hours of the chairman of the fed being questioned.

是以，在這段視頻中，讓我來為你分解一切，你就不用看 5 個小時的美聯儲主席接受質詢的視頻了。

Let me make a disclaimer, there were some really dumb questions and it's very difficult to literally pass through them.

讓我先聲明一下，有些問題真的很蠢，很難從字面上理解。

So she is kind of referring to statistics to ask a question but she doesn't even know what statistics she is referring to.

是以，她是在引用統計數據來提問，但她甚至不知道自己引用的是什麼統計數據。

This is the kind of questions that we are actually getting.

But anyways, there were some really good questions actually.

但不管怎麼說，這些問題確實很好。

One of the questions he was asked is that whether the fed's decision making is being impacted by Trump's bullying.

他被問到的一個問題是，美聯儲的決策是否受到了特朗普恃強凌弱的影響。

And he replied that the job of the fed is to deliver a good economy for the benefit of the American people.

他回答說，美聯儲的工作是為美國人民帶來良好的經濟。

And anything else, and he means literally here the Trump's tweets, is that anything else is kind of a distraction.

而其他任何事情，他在這裡指的是特朗普的推文，是指其他任何事情都會讓人分心。

So Donald Trump is splashing his anger on social media and tweeting literally calling him different names and he is simply, I don't care about that, call me whatever you want.

是以，唐納德-特朗普在社交媒體上潑灑怒火，在推特上簡直是對他的各種稱呼，而他只是說，我不在乎這些，你們想怎麼稱呼我都行。

I hope congress really works this very dumb hard-headed person over.

我希望國會真的能把這個非常愚蠢的頑固分子解決掉。

This is literally how angry Donald Trump is.

If you literally just go to truth social to Donald Trump's page, you will find probably at least a few dozen of posts by Donald Trump criticizing the chairman of the fed.

如果你真的進入唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）的真理社交頁面，你會發現唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）責備美聯儲主席的帖子可能至少有幾十篇。

If it was to the will of the president, I guess he would actually remove him.

如果按照總統的意願，我想他真的會把他撤職。

But removing him is so difficult, he would rather wait for him to literally just go away next year when this term is going to be over.

但把他趕走實在太難了，他寧願等明年這個學期結束時，他真的就走了。

But he was also asked whether he is going to lower down interest rates.

但也有人問他是否會降低利率。

He is going to wait for clearer economic data.

And he is also supported by Ray Dalio, one of the most important investors in the country, or I would say in the world.

他還得到了雷-達里奧（Ray Dalio）的支持，他是美國最重要的投資者之一，或者我可以說是世界上最重要的投資者之一。

The fed is in a very difficult position and it tries to balance the benefits of cutting interest rates with maintaining the value of the money.

美聯儲的處境非常艱難，它試圖在降低利率和保持貨幣價值之間取得平衡。

When you lower down interest rates, you benefit everybody from one side, because everybody now has cheap access to the capital.

當你降低利率時，從一個側面來說，你會讓所有人受益，因為現在每個人都能以低廉的價格獲得資金。

But on the other side, you're devaluing the value of the money, the savers, the people who keep their money in safe deposits, the people who buy treasurables, especially when we talk about largest institutions or foreign governments, the value of their dollars are going to go down.

但另一方面，貨幣貶值，儲蓄者、將錢存入安全存款的人們、購買國債的人們，尤其是當我們談論最大的機構或外國政府時，他們的美元價值將下降。

But if you don't have any kind of savings, you're not going to suffer.

但如果你沒有任何積蓄，你就不會受苦。

So it's very difficult to balance between the two.

是以，要在兩者之間取得平衡非常困難。

Now, another thing that he was asked about the tariffs and its effect on inflation, tariffs are likely to push up inflation, whether this will be a one time price increase or a persistent issue.

現在，他被問到的另一個問題是關稅及其對通脹的影響，關稅很可能會推高通脹，這究竟是一次性的價格上漲，還是一個持續性的問題。

We really don't know how much of that is going to be passed through the consumers.

我們真的不知道其中有多少會轉嫁到消費者身上。

It's not yet clear for the fed whether it's going to be like a one time increase or prices will continue increasing.

對於美聯儲來說，目前還不清楚是一次性上調還是價格會繼續上漲。

And I want you to take a look at this chart because we haven't had this kind of increase in tariffs in the last 70 to 80 years.

我想讓你們看看這張圖表，因為在過去的七八十年裡，我們的關稅從未有過這樣的增長。

Last time the United States had this kind of high tariffs was during the Great Depression.

美國上一次徵收如此高的關稅還是在大蕭條時期。

Before World War II, the world was a completely different place.

The United States did not have the global reserve currency and the United States was not the largest and the major economy of the world.

美國沒有全球儲備貨幣，美國也不是世界上最大的主要經濟體。

However, the situation is very different right now.

然而，現在的情況卻大不相同。

Increasing tariffs to this level is literally one of the biggest risks on gamble that America is taking and you actually need time to see how is that going to impact the economy.

將關稅提高到這一水準，實際上是美國正在進行的最大的風險賭博之一，你實際上需要時間來了解這將對經濟產生怎樣的影響。

Imagine you are raising tariffs so high that you never had this kind of high tariffs in the last 80 years.

試想一下，你們將關稅提高到如此之高，而在過去的 80 年裡，你們從未有過如此高的關稅。

So I think the Fed is doing a good job over here.

是以，我認為美聯儲在這方面做得很好。

There is also a theoretical study by the Fed that every 10% point increase in tariffs will result in a direct increase in prices by at least anything between 1 and 1.5%.

美聯儲也有一項理論研究，關稅每增加 10%，就會直接導致價格至少上漲 1%到 1.5%。

However, we don't know the final outcome of the tariffs, whether they will be 20%, 30% or maybe even 50%.

不過，我們還不知道關稅的最終結果，是 20%、30% 還是 50%。

Other peak tariffs were probably as high as 255% in China.

中國的其他峰值關稅可能高達 255%。

And as for now, we don't have trade agreements with multiple countries.

目前，我們還沒有與多個國家簽訂貿易協定。

Another thing that he mentioned is that the economy remains solid, with a low unemployment rate and a labor market near maximum employment.

他提到的另一點是，經濟依然穩健，失業率較低，勞動力市場接近最大就業率。

United States continues to add hundreds of thousands of jobs every year.

美國每年繼續增加數十萬個工作崗位。

And in May, it added almost 140,000 jobs, prior to that it was 145,000.

5 月份，就業崗位增加了近 14 萬個，此前為 14.5 萬個。

And there isn't a clear sign that it's going to slow down any time soon.

而且沒有明顯的跡象表明這種趨勢會很快放緩。

I mean, if it slows down, maybe there is a good reason to lower down the interest rate.

我的意思是，如果增長放緩，也許就有理由降低利率。

But if the economy is growing and interest rates are more than 4%, maybe you want to keep it like that in order to maintain the value of the dollar.

但如果經濟在增長，利率超過 4%，為了保持美元的價值，也許你想保持這樣的利率。

Because again, remember, the first priority of the Fed is to maintain the value of the dollar and then boost the economy.

因為，請記住，美聯儲的首要任務是保持美元的價值，然後提振經濟。

And he said that inflation is still above the Fed's target of 2%.

他還表示，通脹率仍高於美聯儲 2% 的目標。

On some things such as food, for example, it's almost 3%.

例如，在食品等某些商品上，這一比例幾乎達到 3%。

Energy has gone down because oil prices have gone dramatically over the last 6 months.

能源價格下跌是因為過去 6 個月油價大幅上漲。

Everybody is thinking that oil prices could surge because of the conflict in Middle East.

每個人都在想，油價可能會因為中東衝突而飆升。

However, it seems like that's not happening because Donald Trump somehow struck a deal between the two countries.

不過，這似乎不會發生，因為唐納德-特朗普以某種方式在兩國之間達成了協議。

But the goal at the end of the day is 2%.

United States continues to pursue the policy of inflation of 2%.

Otherwise, those countries will not keep the dollar as the reserve currency, since the value will be shrinking so much that it makes no sense.

否則，這些國家就不會繼續將美元作為儲備貨幣，因為美元的價值將大幅縮水，這樣做毫無意義。

Of course, there was a period of high inflation during 2020 and 2022, but that should not be repeated.

當然，2020 年和 2022 年曾出現過一段高通脹時期，但這種情況不應再次發生。

And that is the responsibility of the Fed.

For the time being, we're all well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy.

就目前而言，在考慮調整我們的政策之前，我們完全可以等待了解更多關於經濟可能走向的資訊。

But the problem is that with Trump, you never know and you have to wait until he's out of office.

但問題是，對於特朗普，你永遠不會知道，只能等到他下臺。

Like how are you supposed to know what Trump is going to do?

比如，你怎麼知道特朗普會做什麼？

It's literally every single day a new adventure.

What Trump is going to take his policies in China, on European Union, on Canada.

特朗普將對中國、歐盟和加拿大采取何種政策？

Today it could be one thing, tomorrow it could be a completely different thing.

今天可能是一件事，明天可能是完全不同的事。

And that's a very different approach from the Fed's approach.

He wants to be unpredictable because politics is brutally hard.

他希望自己不可預測，因為政治是殘酷而艱難的。

And when no one knows what exactly you want to do, you can take whatever you want and everybody will be surprised.

當沒有人知道你到底想做什麼的時候，你可以隨心所欲，每個人都會大吃一驚。

And everybody will take your word very seriously because you could change your opinion at any moment.

每個人都會非常認真地對待你的話，因為你隨時都可能改變自己的觀點。

However, when you're managing the Fed, people trust you because you are predictable.

然而，當你管理美聯儲時，人們信任你，因為你是可以預測的。

這就是為什麼他們使用你們的貨幣。

So maybe either it's going to be until Trump is out of the office before they lower down the interest rates, or maybe he will be replaced next year and the next chairman of the Fed will instantly lower down interest rates.

是以，也許要等到特朗普卸任後他們才會降低利率，或者明年他將被取代，下一任美聯儲主席會立即降低利率。

He was also asked whether he's going to lower down the interest rates in July.

他還被問及是否會在 7 月份降低利率。

He did not comment on that because he doesn't want to drive any kind of speculation.

他沒有對此發表評論，因為他不想引起任何猜測。

However, there are other governors of the Fed who hinted that there could be, or maybe it's time for the Fed to actually lower down the interest rates.

不過，也有其他美聯儲理事暗示，美聯儲可能會降息，或者說，現在是美聯儲真正降息的時候了。

而這最早可能在 7 月就會發生。

Yes, but that's what we have been saying literally since the end of the last year, or even probably like the summer of the last year.

是的，但這正是我們從去年年底，甚至可能是去年夏天開始就一直在說的。

But the Fed continues to remain with their policy of keeping the rates at the same level because of so many unpredictabilities.

但由於存在諸多不可預測性，美聯儲繼續堅持將利率維持在同一水準的政策。

And everything that happened over the last few months only indicates the fact that there is going to be more unpredictability, which I assume that the Fed most likely is not going to lower down the interest rates in July of this year.

而過去幾個月發生的一切都表明，不可預測性將會增加，我認為美聯儲很可能不會在今年 7 月降低利率。

And he made it clear that the bond market is very stable.

他還明確表示，債券市場非常穩定。

Because remember, the bond market is the foundation of the US economy and the foundation of the global economy.

因為請記住，債券市場是美國經濟的基礎，也是全球經濟的基礎。

And it's part of his responsibility to ensure that the bond market works the way it works, that it's functional, it's smooth, and nobody has any doubts on it, even if it's against the will of the president.

他的責任之一就是確保債券市場的正常運作，確保其功能性和平穩性，確保沒有人對此有任何懷疑，即使這違背了總統的意願。