Name: 為什麼美國經濟尚未崩潰？ (Why the US Economy hasn’t Crashed Yet?)
Uploaded: 2025-07-23T18:50:03.000Z
Duration: 11 min 43 s

Since the United States have announced the liberation day, the US economy has been on a roller coaster.

自從美國宣佈解放日以來，美國經濟就像坐上了雲霄飛車。

The United States have cancelled agreements that took the country 50 or 80 years to sign them.

美國已經取消了花了 50 年或 80 年才簽署的協議。

The US has imposed some of the highest tariffs in the world.

美國徵收了世界上最高的關稅。

And everybody expected that the US economy is instantly going to get into a recession.

每個人都預計美國經濟馬上會陷入衰退。

A recession that is going to be very similar to the Great Depression of 1930s.

經濟衰退將與 20 世紀 30 年代的大蕭條非常相似。

However, the absolute opposite has happened.

The US economy is growing, it didn't damage the economy, and the stock market just hit all-time high and another record.

美國經濟正在增長，它沒有破壞經濟，股市剛剛創下歷史新高，再創新高。

If any other country would have done what the United States have done, that country would be in huge trouble.

如果任何其他國家做了美國所做的事情，這個國家就會有大麻煩。

When the UK left the European Union, the economy stagnated, and even up until today, the British economy is suffering.

英國脫離歐盟後，經濟停滯不前，甚至直到今天，英國經濟仍在遭受重創。

And yet, the US economy is growing tremendously.

然而，美國經濟卻在大幅增長。

Some people might say, well, the stock market does not represent the economy.

有些人可能會說，股市不代表經濟。

Look at the job statistics and you will find the exact same thing.

看看就業統計數據，你會發現情況完全一樣。

When people have jobs, they have constant streams of income, and when they have pockets in their money, it means they are spending and the economy is not getting into a recession.

當人們有工作時，他們就有源源不斷的收入，當他們的錢袋子鼓起來時，就意味著他們在消費，經濟就不會陷入衰退。

A recession happens when people do not have jobs, when unemployment is rising and spending goes down.

當人們沒有工作、失業率上升、消費下降時，就會出現經濟衰退。

However, looking at the unemployment rate of the United States, we don't see a single sign of unemployment rising dramatically.

然而，縱觀美國的失業率，我們沒有看到任何失業率大幅上升的跡象。

Compare that to another major economy, such as the UK.

與另一個主要經濟體相比，如英國。

Unemployment has been rising dramatically over the last 12 months, and now it's at 4.7%.

在過去的 12 個月裡，失業率急劇上升，目前已達到 4.7%。

If it rises above 5%, then the likelihood of a recession starts to rise.

如果上升到 5%以上，那麼經濟衰退的可能性就會開始上升。

And the UK is not facing the same troubles as the US.

The UK did not cancel all of its trade agreements with the rest of the world and did not impose super high tariffs on the rest of the world.

英國並沒有取消與世界其他國家的所有貿易協定，也沒有對世界其他國家徵收超高關稅。

Let's take another economy, such as China.

讓我們以另一個經濟體為例，比如中國。

Unemployment is about 5%, which is actually not that bad, but it's much higher than the US.

失業率約為 5%，其實也不算太差，但比美國高得多。

In Germany, the situation is much worse than that.

European economies are suffering tremendously because of everything that is happening in Europe.

由於歐洲發生的一切，歐洲經濟正在遭受巨大損失。

But by just looking at the most important indicator, which is the jobs report, we can confidently say that the US economy is doing far better than any other economy in the world.

但僅從就業報告這一最重要的指標來看，我們就可以自信地說，美國經濟的表現遠遠好於世界上任何其他經濟體。

If you look at the inflation rate, again, the United States is far ahead of everyone else.

再看通貨膨脹率，美國也是遙遙領先於其他國家。

Inflation slightly rose in June to 2.7% and that might indicate that inflation might get out of control because of these tariffs.

6 月份的通脹率略微上升至 2.7%，這可能表明通脹可能會因為這些關稅而失控。

And maybe within the next 6 to 12 months, as the effects of tariffs will get into the economy, we might see slightly higher inflation.

也許在未來 6 到 12 個月內，隨著關稅的影響進入經濟，我們可能會看到通脹率略有上升。

When you're imposing 150% tariffs, when you're imposing 40% to 50% tariffs on the rest of the world and 250% on your most important trading partner, China, and you don't have a trade agreement with your most important neighbors such as Mexico and Canada, you expect an inflation that is going to be significantly higher than 2.7%.

當你徵收 150% 的關稅時，當你對世界其他國家徵收 40% 至 50% 的關稅時，當你對最重要的貿易伙伴中國徵收 250% 的關稅時，當你沒有與墨西哥和加拿大等最重要的鄰國簽訂貿易協定時，你預計通貨膨脹率將大大高於 2.7%。

So even if it rises by another couple of points, let's say to 2.8% or 2.9%, that is still far better than many other economies.

是以，即使再上升幾個百分點，比方說上升到 2.8%或 2.9%，也比許多其他經濟體要好得多。

The inflation in the UK, that did not print as much money as the United States, is at 3.6%.

英國的通貨膨脹率為 3.6%，沒有像美國那樣大量印鈔。

So if the US hits an inflation of 3%, it will still do far better than the UK.

是以，如果美國的通脹率達到 3%，它仍然會比英國好得多。

This is probably the only country that is doing pretty good with the inflation rate.

這可能是唯一一個通貨膨脹率還算不錯的國家。

Germany is one of the few countries that have a very good inflation rate.

德國是少數幾個通貨膨脹率非常高的國家之一。

And it makes sense because unemployment is very high, which means that spending is very low.

這是有道理的，因為失業率非常高，這意味著支出非常低。

And when there is very little spending, obviously, you are going to have very little inflation.

而當支出很少的時候，通貨膨脹顯然也會很少。

Looking at the two most important indicators, unemployment rate and inflation rate, we can say that the United States is doing perfectly fine, and there are all the reasons for the US economy to continue to grow.

從失業率和通脹率這兩個最重要的指標來看，我們可以說美國的經濟狀況非常好，美國經濟完全有理由繼續增長。

So while the United States put all of its trading relationships in such a huge danger and is giving a path for BRICS countries to challenge the US dollar, why the United States is not going through a financial crisis or at least a recession?

那麼，當美國將其所有貿易關係置於如此巨大的危險之中，併為金磚國家提供挑戰美元的道路時，為什麼美國沒有經歷金融危機或至少是衰退呢？

And that's because the United States bond market still dominates the world and there isn't any other alternative.

這是因為美國債券市場仍然主導著世界，沒有任何其他選擇。

The US bond market represents literally 40% of the global bond market.

美國債券市場佔全球債券市場的 40%。

And while there are some competitors, they don't even come close to the United States.

雖然有一些競爭對手，但它們甚至都比不上美國。

Throughout the entire world, there are different financial institutions and there is so much wealth in the world.

全世界有不同的金融機構，世界上有如此多的財富。

這些財富並沒有投資在黃金上。

That wealth isn't simply kept in bank accounts.

這些財富並不是簡單地存在銀行賬戶裡。

That wealth must be invested somewhere and it must create some return.

這些財富必須投資到某個地方，而且必須創造一定的回報。

And because the US bond market is the world's largest bond market, especially with interest rates at around 4.5%, which means that treasurer bills have an annual return of around 4%, some of them slightly lower than 4%, others slightly higher than 4%, but that makes a pretty attractive investment.

而且，由於美國債券市場是世界上最大的債券市場，尤其是利率在 4.5% 左右，這意味著國庫券的年回報率在 4% 左右，有些國庫券的回報率略低於 4%，有些則略高於 4%，但這也是一項相當有吸引力的投資。

Pretty much every country today has a pension fund.

如今，幾乎每個國家都有養老基金。

And when people pay taxes for these pension funds, a portion of that money must be invested.

當人們為這些養老基金納稅時，其中一部分錢必須用於投資。

And the US bond market does not have a replacement.

There isn't an alternative to the US bond market.

除了美國債券市場，別無選擇。

So a huge amount of their money is being invested back into the bond market.

是以，他們的大量資金又投回了債券市場。

Especially when you look at the sovereign funds of countries with so much resources, such as Norway or Middle Eastern countries such as Qatar or Saudi Arabia, they've accumulated so much wealth.

特別是當你看看那些擁有大量資源的國家的主權基金，如挪威或中東國家，如卡達或沙特阿拉伯，他們已經積累了如此多的財富。

And that wealth must be invested somewhere and provide a constant rate of return and provide a constant return on their investment to fill their budgets.

而這些財富必須投資到某個地方，並提供恆定的回報率，使他們的投資獲得恆定的回報，以填補他們的預算。

And again, where would they invest that money if not in the United States?

再說一遍，如果不在美國，他們會把錢投到哪裡？

You have central banks across the globe who are keeping a huge portion of the bond market of the US.

全球的中央銀行都在美國的債券市場上佔有很大的份額。

You have investment banks, you have banks, the commercial banks, you have insurance companies, and all of them investing all of their money back into the bond market of the United States, simply because there isn't any alternative.

投資銀行、銀行、商業銀行、保險公司都把資金投回美國的債券市場，因為沒有其他選擇。

The second best option is obviously China.

And China represents about 6.5% of the entire global market.

而中國約佔整個全球市場的 6.5%。

But the problem with the Chinese bond market is that there isn't much of international foreign investment.

但中國債券市場的問題在於，國際外資並不多。

The only reason that the Chinese bond market is so huge is because the Chinese economy is so huge.

中國債券市場如此龐大的唯一原因是中國經濟如此龐大。

And because you have a large economy, you have lots of Chinese banks, and all of them must invest a portion of their assets into the bond market of China, which makes it the world's second largest bond market.

由於中國經濟規模龐大，中國的銀行數量眾多，所有銀行都必須將其部分資產投資於中國的債券市場，這使得中國成為世界第二大債券市場。

Of course, that's the case with the United States as well.

But what makes the United States so different than China is because you have so many international investors.

但美國之所以與中國如此不同，是因為你們有如此多的國際投資者。

And that means that the bond market in the United States is much more liquid than any other bond market, including the Chinese market.

這意味著，美國債券市場的流動性遠遠高於其他任何債券市場，包括中國市場。

And if you are an insurance company, or a mutual fund, or a wealth fund, you want that money to be invested in the most liquid bond market possible so that you can exit your position instantly and it won't impact the price.

而如果你是一家保險公司、共同基金或財富基金，你就希望這些資金儘可能投資於流動性最好的債券市場，這樣你就可以立即退出頭寸，而不會影響價格。

Imagine you are selling like, I don't know, like $20 billion worth of government bonds.

想象一下，你正在出售價值 200 億美元的政府債券。

If the market is not liquid enough, you are instantly going to lose a huge portion of your portfolio.

如果市場流動性不足，你的投資組合馬上就會損失一大部分。

Another option is Japan that represents 13% of the global bond market.

另一個選擇是佔全球債券市場 13% 的日本。

But Japan is very tricky because around half of Japan's bond market is being owned by the Bank of Japan, which is the central bank of Japan, which makes the entire market extremely illiquid.

但日本的情況非常棘手，因為日本債券市場約有一半由日本央行--日本銀行--擁有，這使得整個市場的流動性極差。

So if you own like $20 billion or $100 billion of Japanese government bonds, it's very difficult to exit your position.

是以，如果你持有 200 億美元或 1,000 億美元的日本政府債券，你就很難退出你的頭寸。

You probably need to strategize your entire position and sell $100 billion worth of Japanese bonds.

你可能需要對整個頭寸進行戰略調整，出售價值 1,000 億美元的日本債券。

And if you hold that many bonds in the United States, you can literally exit your position without impacting the market or whatsoever.

如果你在美國持有這麼多債券，你完全可以在不影響市場或任何情況下退出你的頭寸。

Which is why a lot of money is still being flown back into the United States.

這就是為什麼大量資金仍在飛回美國的原因。

A lot of money is still being invested in the United States.

Even if the US imposes those huge tariffs on other countries, even if it cancels trade agreements with the rest of the world, money is still coming to the United States, which means that there is a lot of investments in the US, which means that there is a lot of spending in the United States, which means that the economy keeps growing and the markets keep growing.

即使美國對其他國家徵收鉅額關稅，即使美國取消與世界其他國家的貿易協定，資金仍然會流向美國，這意味著美國有大量的投資，意味著美國有大量的消費，意味著經濟持續增長，市場持續增長。

Now, another reason is obviously the equity market.

現在，另一個原因顯然是股票市場。

The equity market of the US represents 60% of the entire global equity market and it's valued at over $60 trillion.

美國股票市場佔整個全球股票市場的 60%，價值超過 60 萬億美元。

Now you have the exact same dynamics over here as well.

現在，你們這裡也有完全相同的動力。

You have hedge funds that are consistently investing in equity funds because hedge funds are trying to get a slightly higher return than what the bond market could possibly produce.

對沖基金一直在投資股票基金，因為對沖基金試圖獲得比債券市場可能產生的回報稍高的收益。

Because when you're investing in bonds, you're investing in debt and debt always has a fixed rate of return.

因為當你投資債券時，你就是在投資債務，而債務總是有固定的回報率。

But when you're investing in equity, you're investing in businesses and businesses can have very different returns, sometimes a thousand percent, and sometimes it can be even negative when you made a bad investment.

但是，當你投資股權時，你投資的是企業，而企業的回報率可能大不相同，有時可能是千分之一，有時甚至是負數，如果你做了一筆糟糕的投資。

Mutual funds, not just in the US, but across the globe, they always invest a huge chunk of their money back into the equity market.

不僅是美國的共同基金，全球的共同基金都會將大筆資金投入股票市場。

Again, there is no comparison between the United States and the rest of the world.

同樣，美國與世界其他國家之間也沒有可比性。

If you take the entire Chinese equity market, only 5% of the market is being held by the foreign investors.

如果以整個中國股票市場為例，外國投資者只持有 5%的市場份額。

If you compare that to the US, around 20% of the entire equity market of the US is being held by foreign investors, which again, makes it much more liquid, which attracts more foreign investments, which means that more mutual funds, more commercial banks, more central banks and sovereign funds will be investing in the US market.

如果與美國相比，美國整個股票市場中約有 20% 由外國投資者持有，這又使其流動性大大提高，吸引了更多的外國投資，這意味著更多的共同基金、更多的商業銀行、更多的中央銀行和主權基金將投資於美國市場。

Just imagine for a moment that the equity market in the US is much larger than the entire markets of the rest of the world.

試想一下，美國的股票市場比世界其他國家的整個市場都要大得多。

How do you even compete with the United States?

And that's why you see the stock market in the US always grows much faster than any other market.

這就是為什麼美國股市的增長速度總是比其他市場快得多的原因。