Name: 特朗普的 "美麗大法案 "會讓美國破產嗎？ (Will Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” Bankrupt America?)
Uploaded: 2025-06-17T18:49:10.000Z
Duration: 11 min 47 s

Trump's big beautiful bill is shaking up the Washington.

特朗普的美麗大法案正在撼動華盛頓。

It sparked a feud between the richest man in the world and the most powerful man in the world.

這引發了世界上最富有的人和世界上最有權勢的人之間的爭鬥。

分詞構句

Tesla stock is already down by about 20 percent, wiping out 150 billion dollars of market cap.

特斯拉股價已經下跌了約 20%，市值縮水了 1,500 億美元。

And Elon's net worth is down by around 30 to 40 billion dollars.

而埃隆的淨資產減少了約 300 億至 400 億美元。

Just a couple of days ago, Elon accepted a golden key from Donald Trump when he left the White House when his job at Doge was over.

就在幾天前，埃隆在結束 Doge 的工作離開白宮時接受了唐納德-特朗普贈送的一把金鑰匙。

But a few moments later, this is what he tweeted, I'm sorry, but I just can't stand it anymore.

但片刻之後，他又在推特上寫道："對不起，我實在無法忍受了。

This massive, outrageous, pork-filled congressional spending bill is disgusting abomination.

這項龐大、離譜、充滿豬肉的國會支出法案令人作嘔。

Trump later responded in the White House that he is very disappointed with Elon Musk and that Elon Musk was aware of the bill and he knew everything about it.

特朗普隨後在白宮迴應說，他對埃隆-馬斯克非常失望，埃隆-馬斯克知道這項法案，他對法案的一切瞭如指掌。

這是他後來在推特上發佈的內容。

I took away his EV mandate that forced everyone to buy electric cars that nobody else wanted.

我剝奪了他的電動汽車授權，因為該授權迫使每個人都購買別人不想要的電動汽車。

And this is probably the best tweet out of them all.

這可能是所有推文中最好的一條了。

The easiest way to save money in our budget, billions of dollars, is to terminate Elon's governmental subsidies and contracts.

要想節省數十億美元的預算，最簡單的辦法就是終止埃隆公司的政府補貼和合同。

I was always surprised that Biden did not do that.

我一直很驚訝拜登沒有這樣做。

Then Elon escalated the situation by linking Donald Trump to the Epstein files.

隨後，埃隆將唐納德-特朗普與愛潑斯坦檔案聯繫起來，使事態升級。

And finally, he tweeted that, call your senator, call your congressman.

最後，他在推特上說，給你的參議員打電話，給你的眾議員打電話。

I thought House of Cards was the best political show I have ever watched.

我認為《紙牌屋》是我看過的最好的政治節目。

But this is on a completely different level.

So why exactly Elon is against this bill?

那麼，埃隆究竟為什麼反對這項法案呢？

What Elon is afraid is that he doesn't want America to turn into a debt slave.

埃隆害怕的是，他不希望美國變成債務奴隸。

Imagine you are making like $10,000 per month and you have to make a monthly payments of interest payments of $8,000.

試想一下，你每月的收入是 10,000 美元，而每月的利息支出是 8,000 美元。

That leaves you with around $2,000 of monthly income because $8,000 goes directly into your interest payments.

由於 8,000 美元直接用於支付利息，是以您每月的收入約為 2,000 美元。

And as your debt grows up, one day the entire $10,000 will be allocated into interest payments.

隨著你的債務越來越多，總有一天，這 10,000 美元將全部用於支付利息。

You can't quit your job because you have to keep working to make those payments.

你不能辭職，因為你必須繼續工作來支付這些費用。

If you are going to encounter any kind of crisis, there is no way you can actually have any kind of savings or investments to save yourself up.

如果你將遇到任何形式的危機，你實際上不可能有任何形式的儲蓄或投資來拯救自己。

You are working for those who loaned you the credit card.

你在為那些借給你信用卡的人工作。

You are working for those who gave you the mortgage.

你在為那些給你抵押貸款的人工作。

You are working for those who are actually affording you that car.

你是在為那些真正為你提供汽車的人工作。

And that's pretty much how most Americans live in fact.

事實上，大多數美國人就是這樣生活的。

If you look at the budget of the United States, the US government spends around 7 trillion dollars on one side and it just earns 5 trillion dollars.

如果你看看美國的預算，美國政府的單邊支出約為 7 萬億美元，而它的單邊收入僅為 5 萬億美元。

So mathematically, you can do the math and figure out when exactly at some time in the future the US government is going to get out of business.

是以，從數學上講，你可以算出在未來的某個時間，美國政府到底什麼時候會破產。

So his entire point of joining the government was to balance that.

是以，他加入政府的全部意義就在於平衡這一點。

At first he thought that he can get into the government and cut 2 trillion dollars, but then when he joined the government, he realized the real truth that it is not business, it's politics.

起初，他以為進入政府就能削減 2 萬億美元，但當他進入政府後，才明白了一個真正的道理：這不是商業，而是政治。

And cutting 2 trillion dollars is impossible.

而削減 2 萬億美元是不可能的。

So he re-managed his goal and said that he is going to cut 1 trillion dollars and economic growth is going to add to the fact that the government will raise its budget or its revenue by another trillion dollars.

是以，他重新制定了目標，表示要削減 1 萬億美元，而經濟增長將使政府的預算或收入再增加 1 萬億美元。

And that's how they will balance the budget.

They will cut all the wasteful spending, they will make the government more efficient, they will spend less money, and the money that is being spent will be spent more productively.

他們將削減所有浪費性支出，提高政府效率，減少開支，並使所花的錢更有效益。

But when he joined, all he could do in the last few months is save the government around 160 billion dollars.

但當他加入後，在過去幾個月裡，他所能做的就是為政府節省約 1600 億美元。

According to different estimates, probably 180 billion dollars.

根據不同的估計，大概有 1 800 億美元。

But if you look at the independent journalists who try to verify every transaction, they are saying it's actually less than 50 billion dollars.

但是，如果你看看那些試圖核實每筆交易的獨立記者，他們會說實際上還不到 500 億美元。

On one side, Elon has spent 270 million dollars trying to help Donald Trump get elected.

一邊是埃隆花費 2.7 億美元試圖幫助唐納德-特朗普當選。

And he also helped a lot of Republican senators to get to the House and the Senate so that they can actually pass the legislation that is much more favorable to the goal that Elon has put in front of himself.

他還幫助許多共和黨參議員進入眾議院和參議院，使他們能夠真正通過立法，從而更有利於伊隆實現自己的目標。

And the goal of Elon Musk, I believe, wasn't just to get into the government and stay there forever.

我相信，埃隆-馬斯克的目標並不僅僅是進入政府部門並永遠待在那裡。

Usually when a government starts any kind of a project, it stays there forever, they never actually cancel it.

通常情況下，當政府啟動任何一個項目時，它都會永遠停留在那裡，從未真正取消過。

Just take a look at all the wars that the United States has ever started.

看看美國發動的所有戰爭就知道了。

They start a war, and then it lasts for 20-30 years, and nobody knows why that war actually started.

他們發動一場戰爭，然後持續二三十年，沒有人知道這場戰爭到底是為什麼發動的。

The same thing usually happens with government agencies and government contracts, which is why the job of Elon was, I'm gonna get in, spend all of this money, get elected, and fix the problem, and then get out.

政府機構和政府合同通常也會發生同樣的情況，這就是為什麼埃隆的工作是：我要進去，花光這些錢，當選，解決問題，然後退出。

And then Donald Trump passes a legislation that undermines everything that Elon Musk stands up.

然後，唐納德-特朗普通過了一項立法，破壞了埃隆-馬斯克所堅持的一切。

So what exactly the big beautiful bill stands for?

那麼，這個美麗的大法案究竟代表著什麼呢？

It extends the 2017 tax cuts, but it also eliminates taxes on tips and overtime, and raises the state and local tax deductions up to $40,000, and that means less revenue for the government.

它延長了2017年的減稅政策，但也取消了對小費和加班費的徵稅，並提高了州和地方的減稅額度，最高可達4萬美元，這意味著政府的收入減少了。

But it also boosts military spending by about $150 billion.

但同時也增加了約 1500 億美元的軍費開支。

And according to different estimates, it's going to cost the government around an extra 3-5 trillion dollars.

根據不同的估算，這將使政府多花費大約 3-5 萬億美元。

The national debt has been rising for the last 30, 50, or 70 years and stands right now at around $37 trillion dollars.

在過去的 30 年、50 年或 70 年裡，國債一直在增加，目前約為 37 萬億美元。

And if you look at the graph that you see in front of you, under the current legislation by 2034, which is in 10 years from now, the debt to GDP ratio would have grown to 117%.

如果你看看眼前的圖表，根據現行立法，到2034年，也就是10年後，債務與國內生產總值的比率將增長到117%。

But now under Trump's big beautiful bill, it's going to rise to 129%.

但現在根據特朗普的美麗大法案，這一比例將上升到 129%。

And if interest rates are going to stay at around 4.5%, it is going to get much worse and will be at around 133%.

如果利率繼續保持在 4.5%左右，情況會變得更糟，利率將達到 133%左右。

These few percentages might not seem like a big deal in the beginning, but if you look at the size of the government debt, then even a single percentage is going to cost the government hundreds of billions of dollars.

這幾個百分點在開始時可能看起來沒什麼大不了，但如果你看看政府債務的規模，那麼即使是一個百分點也會讓政府損失數千億美元。

Like if you have a total debt of, let's say, 40 trillion dollars, which is exactly where the debt is going to be in a year or two from now, then a single percentage is going to cost the government $400 billion dollars.

比方說，如果你的債務總額是 40 萬億美元，這正是一兩年後的債務狀況，那麼一個百分比就會讓政府損失 4000 億美元。

We already have a deficit problem of around $2 trillion dollars, and it's around 6.1%.

我們已經有了約 2 萬億美元的赤字問題，赤字率約為 6.1%。

Under the new legislation, it's going to be 7.8%.

根據新立法，這一比例將為 7.8%。

And what Elon Musk is really afraid of is that we're getting into the point of no return.

埃隆-馬斯克真正擔心的是，我們正在進入不歸路。

That we're going to get to a position in 5 to 10 years from now where no matter what we do, there is no way to fix that problem.

從現在起的 5 到 10 年內，無論我們做什麼，都無法解決這個問題。

Because the United States is simply going to turn into a country where the entire budget is going to be allocated into paying the interest.

因為美國會變成一個把全部預算都用來支付利息的國家。

And that is a really bad situation because you want to spend that money into growing the economy.

這種情況真的很糟糕，因為你想把這些錢用於經濟增長。

You want to spend that money into building roads, infrastructure, roads, education, just making the country a better place so that the government can fund the corporations to improve the country.

你想把這些錢用於建設道路、基礎設施、公路、教育，讓國家變得更好，這樣政府就能資助企業改善國家。

But instead, all of that money is going to go to the lenders who lend that money to the US government.

但相反，所有這些錢都會流向把錢借給美國政府的貸款人。

So watching how the big beautiful bill passes the House and now goes to the Senate, I think Elon felt very frustrated and very betrayed because he spent all of that money to help Trump to get elected.

是以，看著這個漂亮的大法案如何通過眾議院，現在又如何進入參議院，我認為埃隆感到非常沮喪和非常被背叛，因為他花了那麼多錢來幫助特朗普當選。

But now he is actually doing the exact opposite of what he wanted in the first place.

但現在，他的所作所為實際上與他當初的初衷完全相反。

You might make the argument that Donald Trump is not accountable to Elon Musk.

你可能會說，唐納德-特朗普不需要對埃隆-馬斯克負責。

But when you spend hundreds of millions of dollars to get a guy elected and you want to fix one of the biggest problems in America, which is the national debt.

但是，當你花費數億美元讓一個人當選，而你又想解決美國最大的問題之一，那就是國債。

But then the president passes a legislation that is exactly opposite of what you believe and what you are trying to accomplish.

但是，總統卻通過了一項與你的信念和你想要實現的目標完全相反的立法。

What are you even doing in the government?

On the one side, the doge is supposed to catch spending.

On the other side, the spending increases by a couple of trillions of dollars.

另一方面，支出增加了幾萬億美元。

So even if doge tries to save like 500 billion dollars, 700 billion dollars, and the next legislation that is about to be passed is going to increase spending by 5 trillion dollars, those 500 billion dollars are not going to make any difference.

是以，即使道格試圖節省 5000 億美元、7000 億美元，而即將通過的下一項立法將增加 5 萬億美元的支出，這 5000 億美元也不會產生任何作用。

And the consequences of not fixing this problem is really huge.

如果不解決這個問題，後果將不堪設想。

The point of debt is that when you are in crisis, you can borrow money and get out of the crisis, but then you have to tighten your belt and pay that money back.

債務的意義在於，當你陷入危機時，你可以借錢擺脫危機，但隨後你必須勒緊褲腰帶還錢。

So for example, you are going through a really brutal war and you need to raise money and you need to borrow money in order to get out of that problem.

例如，你正在經歷一場非常殘酷的戰爭，你需要籌集資金，需要借錢來擺脫困境。

Imagine you are in a recession or a great depression, it makes sense for you to borrow money.

想象一下，如果你正處於經濟衰退或大蕭條時期，借錢是合情合理的。

But then you have to understand that you borrowed that money during a hard time, now you have got out of the problem, you fixed the problem, time to pay the money back.

但你必須明白，你是在困難時期借的錢，現在你已經擺脫困境，解決了問題，是時候還錢了。

But when you are already running such a huge deficit and such a huge debt, when you are going to encounter another crisis, there is no way you can borrow your money out of that crisis.

但是，當你已經出現如此巨大的赤字和如此巨大的債務時，當你將遇到另一場危機時，你是不可能借錢擺脫危機的。

Imagine if the United States is going to go through another covid-like crisis in 5 years from now, 7 years from now.

試想一下，如果美國在 5 年後或 7 年後再經歷一次類似於科維德的危機，那將會是什麼樣子？

Do you think the government can again borrow that much cash?

你認為政府還能借到那麼多現金嗎？

If it does, it is going to create massive inflation.

如果這樣做，就會造成大規模通貨膨脹。

Imagine if the government is going to go through another crisis such as the 2008 financial crisis.

試想一下，如果政府再經歷一次危機，比如 2008 年的金融危機。

Will the government be able to borrow money?

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特朗普的 "美麗大法案 "會讓美國破產嗎？ (Will Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” Bankrupt America?)

entire

massive

extremely

eliminate