Name: 為什麼不可能實現 100% 美國製造的汽車？ (Why A 100% American-Made Car Isn’t Possible)
Uploaded: 2025-06-20T21:01:10.000Z
Duration: 13 min 35 s

想想製造一輛汽車要花多少錢？

You need steel and aluminum, glass, rubber, plastic, silicon, fabric, or leather.

你需要鋼和鋁、玻璃、橡膠、塑膠、矽膠、織物或皮革。

You need a way to refine petroleum to plastic.

你需要一種將石油提煉成塑膠的方法。

Then you need a way to form these raw materials into the parts that go into vehicles, like rubber and petroleum into tires, wiper blades, belts, and engine mounts, aluminum and steel into chassis, body panels, nuts, bolts, and other components.

然後，你需要一種方法將這些原材料製成汽車部件，如將橡膠和石油製成輪胎、雨刮片、皮帶和發動機支架，將鋁和鋼製成底盤、車身面板、螺母、螺栓和其他部件。

The tariffs the Trump administration has instituted on the automotive industry will affect all of this.

川普政府對汽車行業徵收的關稅將影響這一切。

The ever-changing situation and the maze of different rules and exceptions make it tough to know exactly how all this will affect car prices, but some estimates have said a lower-priced car, meaning those that cost below $40,000, will increase by about $6,000.

瞬息萬變的形勢以及各種不同規則和例外情況的迷宮，讓人很難確切知道這一切會對汽車價格產生怎樣的影響，但據一些人估計，一輛低價汽車（指價格低於 40,000 美元的汽車）的價格將上漲約 6,000 美元。

The issue is that a significant share of cars sold in the U.S. are made somewhere else.

問題在於，在美國銷售的汽車中，有很大一部分是在其他地方生產的。

So how realistic is a 100% American-made car, from raw materials all the way to final assembly?

那麼，從原材料到總裝，100% 美國製造的汽車有多現實？

It would be implausible, if not impossible.

這幾乎是不可能的，甚至可能根本辦不到。

There is no car even close to being 100% U.S.-made in the U.S.

在美國，還沒有哪款汽車能做到 100% 由美國製造。

We can move everything in the U.S., but if every Ford is $50,000, you know we're not going to win as a company.

我們可以在美國運輸所有東西，但如果每輛福特車的價格都是 50,000 美元，你就知道我們公司贏不了。

Arguably, the first big hurdle to building up a domestic automotive supply chain is understanding it.

可以說，建立國內汽車供應鏈的第一大障礙就是了解供應鏈。

The fact is, the current supply chain is extremely complex, global, and not very transparent.

事實上，目前的供應鏈極其複雜，而且是全球性的，透明度不高。

Cars are made in factories owned by automakers, often called OEMs, or Original Equipment Manufacturers.

汽車由汽車製造商（通常稱為 OEM 或原始設備製造商）擁有的工廠製造。

That's Ford, GM, Tesla, Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, etc.

這就是福特、通用、特斯拉、豐田、寶馬、賓士等。

There are 55 auto assembly plants in the U.S., spread out across 15 states, and owned by 20 manufacturers.

美國有 55 家汽車裝配廠，分佈在 15 個州，由 20 家制造商所有。

一些是美國人，許多是外國人。

But many cars sold in the U.S. are made in other countries.

但在美國銷售的許多汽車都是其他國家制造的。

The White House said that half of the 16 million light vehicles sold in 2024 were imports, but industry numbers paint a different picture.

白宮表示，在 2024 年售出的 1600 萬輛輕型汽車中，有一半是進口車，但行業數據卻描繪了一幅不同的圖景。

Research firm Jato Dynamics says the share is more like 61-39.

研究公司 Jato Dynamics 稱，這一比例更像是 61:39。

But the tariffs also apply to the roughly 20,000 parts inside a car.

但關稅也適用於汽車內部的約 20,000 個零部件。

Some automakers make some parts in-house, but they still rely on a vast network of suppliers organized into three tiers.

一些汽車製造商自己生產一些零部件，但它們仍然依賴於龐大的供應商網絡，該網絡分為三個層級。

Tier 1s provide the most complex systems.

Say, an EV battery, a transmission, or an infotainment system.

例如，電動汽車電池、變速箱或資訊娛樂系統。

Tier 2 suppliers provide the simpler parts that make up these systems.

二級供應商提供構成這些系統的簡單部件。

Tier 3s provide raw materials and extremely simple parts, like screws or bolts.

三級供應商提供原材料和極其簡單的零部件，如螺絲或螺栓。

The global auto industry sources parts and materials from somewhere between 50 and 120 countries.

全球汽車工業從 50 到 120 個國家採購零部件和材料。

On average, this is where the parts in U.S.-made cars come from.

平均而言，美國製造汽車的零部件就來自這裡。

Companies are legally required to disclose some sourcing information, but laws allow them to hide a lot of it.

法律要求公司披露一些採購資訊，但法律允許他們隱藏很多資訊。

Secondly, a single part might have materials and components from many countries and may make several trips back and forth across a border.

其次，一個部件的材料和部件可能來自許多國家，可能需要多次往返邊境。

Third, automakers and suppliers are loathe to share information about supply chains they consider trade secrets.

第三，汽車製造商和供應商不願分享他們認為是商業機密的供應鏈資訊。

Manufacturers are fairly secretive with their information.

They don't want their competitors to know what they're doing and to share a lot of data that they have a competitive advantage.

他們不想讓競爭對手知道自己在做什麼，也不想分享大量數據，因為這樣他們就有了競爭優勢。

And that's where one of the challenges is going to be compliance.

而這正是合規性所面臨的挑戰之一。

Are there going to be inspectors running around there, you know, going into the auto plants?

是否會有檢查員在那裡跑來跑去，你知道，進入汽車廠？

The Model 3 Performance is assembled in Fremont, California.

Model 3 Performance 在加利福尼亞州弗裡蒙特組裝。

But here's what the most recent government chart shows for the parts included in that car.

但以下是最新的政府圖表顯示的該車所含部件的情況。

70% of them come from either the U.S. or Canada.

The law doesn't require that automakers break out the parts that come from just the U.S.

法律並不要求汽車製造商將僅來自美國的零部件分類。

That means all 70% could come from Canada.

這意味著所有 70% 都可能來自加拿大。

Also, a part gets counted as a U.S.-Canada part if 70% of its value comes from one of those countries.

此外，如果一個零件 70% 的價值來自其中一個國家，該零件就會被算作美國-加拿大零件。

In other words, a $10 part could be $7 of Canadian value and $3 of Chinese value, and it would still just get counted as American or Canadian.

換句話說，一個 10 美元的零件可能有 7 美元的加拿大價值和 3 美元的中國價值，但它仍然只是被算作美國或加拿大的。

If we want more visibility on this, we're going to need more legislation to break out what exactly is U.S. made on a car and what isn't.

如果我們想提高這方面的能見度，就需要制定更多立法，明確規定哪些是美國製造的汽車，哪些不是。

An automatic transmission might have gears made in Canada, vacuum solenoids made in Germany, but the transmission itself might be made in South Carolina by a Mexican or a German company.

自動變速器的齒輪可能是加拿大製造的，真空電磁閥可能是德國製造的，但變速器本身可能是墨西哥或德國公司在南卡羅來納州製造的。

A single part can cross the U.S.-Canada border several times before it's put into a car.

一個零件在裝入汽車之前，可以多次穿越美加邊境。

What is clear is that the total supply chain has spread throughout the world.

顯而易見的是，整個供應鏈已遍佈全球。

This is partly because labor is cheaper in a lot of places outside the U.S., because of where raw materials are located, and because some regions of the world have almost totally monopolized some industries.

部分原因是美國以外的許多地方勞動力更便宜，原材料產地的原因，以及世界上某些地區幾乎完全壟斷了某些行業。

Foreign manufacturers are becoming more American.

American manufacturers are becoming more foreign.

美國製造商正變得越來越洋氣。

Kind of a shift there from being totally American-made on the part of an American manufacturer, say a General Motors or a Ford, to more and more outsourcing parts, components, and sub-assemblies from Canada to Mexico.

美國製造商（如通用汽車或福特）從完全的美國製造轉變為越來越多地從加拿大向墨西哥外包零部件和分裝件。

If you go back to the mid-2000s, we had vehicles, the top 10 vehicles were 90% U.S. and Canadian parts.

如果你回溯到 2000 年代中期，我們的車輛中，排名前 10 位的車輛 90% 都是美國和加拿大的零部件。

That's kind of gone down since the vehicles have become far more complex.

自從車輛變得越來越複雜後，這種情況就有所減少。

We've had a globalization of the auto industry that has occurred over decades.

幾十年來，汽車工業一直在全球化。

The left-leaning Economic Policy Institute found that imports of parts from Mexico rose from $29 billion in 2007 to more than $78 billion in 2023, far outpacing the growth of parts exports.

左傾的經濟政策研究所發現，從墨西哥進口的零部件將從 2007 年的 290 億美元增加到 2023 年的 780 多億美元，遠遠超過零部件出口的增長速度。

And this is where it's going to be very, very complicated for these producers to figure out, how do we change our sourcing strategy?

對於這些生產商來說，如何改變我們的採購策略將變得非常非常複雜。

Are we going to get our parts manufacturers to move here to the U.S. to produce parts in the United States for vehicles that are assembled here?

我們是否要讓零部件製造商搬到美國來？在美國為在美國組裝的汽車生產零部件？

Sources have told CNBC that getting a car with currently 70% U.S.-Canadian parts, up to 90%, can cost an additional $10,000 to $20,000 for companies per vehicle.

有消息人士告訴 CNBC，如果一輛汽車的美加零部件比例從目前的 70% 提高到 90%，公司每輛車的成本將增加 10,000 到 20,000 美元。

The price of a full-size pickup, already almost $64,000 on average, could rise by an additional $7,000 if we try to get as many U.S. or Canadian parts as is currently possible.

全尺寸皮卡的平均價格已經接近 64,000 美元，如果我們儘可能多地採用美國或加拿大的零部件，那麼價格可能會再上漲 7,000 美元。

The more you push into the tier 1, then the tier ends.

你越是深入推進到第一級（Tier 1），那個級別就會結束。

And the more you push then above that sort of 75% mark, you start hitting some very uneconomic things.

而當你再往上推超過大約75%的界線時，就會開始碰到一些非常不划算的事情。

And some things that would take time, a lot of robots, and other things that are not necessarily that useful for the stated goals.

有些事情需要時間，需要大量機器人，而有些事情對既定目標未必那麼有用。

When you talk about a vehicle being 100% made in the U.S., if you drill down to the raw materials,

當你說一輛汽車是 100% 美國製造時，如果你深入研究原材料，你會發現，美國製造的汽車是 100% 美國製造的、

I mean, you're talking decades to set up an establishment of the mines.

我的意思是，建立一個礦場需要幾十年的時間。

You're talking tens of billions of dollars in investment.

This would include mining and processing for critical minerals, such as cobalt for EV batteries and palladium, platinum, and rhodium for exhaust systems on gas cars.

這將包括關鍵礦物的開採和加工，如電動汽車電池用鈷、燃氣汽車排氣系統用鈀、鉑和銠。

Some of these minerals are increasingly important.

EVs require six times the amount of minerals as a gas car.

電動汽車所需的礦物質是汽油車的六倍。

There are some sources of some of these in the U.S., but imports make up a significant share.

其中一些產品在美國有一定的來源，但進口產品佔很大比例。

On average, it takes more than 16 years to bring a mine from the exploration phase to production, though it varies by mineral, type of mine, and location.

一個礦山從勘探到投產平均需要 16 年以上的時間，但礦產、礦山類型和地點各不相同。

The U.S. has one of the longest development timelines in the world, second only to Zambia.

美國是世界上發展時間最長的國家之一，僅次於尚比亞。

Rare earths form the basis of magnets that are used in all kinds of devices, including cars, especially EVs and hybrids.

稀土是各種設備（包括汽車，尤其是電動汽車和混合動力汽車）所用磁鐵的基礎。

中國是迄今為止最大的生產國。

It controls nearly 70% of mine production and about 90% of the world's processing capacity.

它控制著近 70% 的礦山生產和全球約 90% 的加工能力。

Between the 1960s and the 80s, the U.S. was the largest rare earths processor.

1960 年代至 1980 年代，美國是最大的稀土加工國。

But China has made massive investments in recent decades.

但中國近幾十年來進行了大規模投資。

The Asian country has periodically restricted exports of rare earths, prompting governments and companies to seek other sources.

這個亞洲國家定期限制稀土出口，促使政府和公司尋求其他來源。

Fears over shortages have spurred calls to bring production back to the U.S., which currently has just under 10% of the world market.

對短缺的擔憂促使人們呼籲將生產重回美國，而美國目前僅佔全球市場的不到 10%。

But some parts are not easy to reshore either.

In 2022, forecasters were expecting auto industry demand for older, simpler chips, which are still commonly used in cars and other electronics, to rise 23% by 2026.

2022 年，預測人員預計，到 2026 年，汽車行業對仍常用於汽車和其他電子產品的較老式、較簡單晶片的需求將增長 23%。

Demand for more advanced chips is also likely to rise.

對更先進晶片的需求也可能上升。

We're increasingly needing more crazy stuff for the automated driving, both the assisted automated driving as well as trying to get closer and closer to autonomous.

我們越來越需要更多瘋狂的東西來實現自動駕駛，無論是輔助自動駕駛，還是嘗試越來越接近自動駕駛。

Because you're going for more expensive chips, that makes it more difficult to avoid China.

因為你要買更貴的晶片，這就更難避開中國。

You've got an industry that never really anticipated not having Taiwan available to it to supply chips.

這個行業從來沒有預料到臺灣無法提供晶片。

Cars' dependence on foreign semiconductor manufacturers, overwhelmingly based in Asia, became apparent during the pandemic-era chip shortage.

在疫情時期的晶片短缺中，汽車對外國半導體制造商（絕大多數位於亞洲）的依賴變得顯而易見。

Prices of both new and used vehicles skyrocketed in the U.S. as a consequence, leading to lower production and vehicle inventories.

美國的新車和二手車價格是以暴漲，導致產量和汽車庫存減少。

Thanks in part to the Chips and Science Act,

這部分要歸功於《晶片與科學法案》，

U.S. semiconductor companies are expected to triple their manufacturing capacity over the next several years.

預計未來幾年，美國半導體公司的生產能力將增加兩倍。

They've already invested about a half a trillion dollars since 2020, and they're forecast to capture about a third of global capacity by 2032.

自 2020 年以來，它們已經投資了約 5 萬億美元，預計到 2032 年，它們將佔據全球約三分之一的產能。

These newer plants will likely be building newer, more advanced chips rather than the older analog chips the auto industry more heavily relies on.

這些較新的工廠很可能會生產更新、更先進的晶片，而不是汽車行業更依賴的老式模擬晶片。

Then there are parts like wiring harnesses, which hit a shortage when war between Ukraine and Russia broke out.

此外，烏克蘭和俄羅斯爆發戰爭後，線束等零部件也出現短缺。

Putting them together is labor-intensive and not easy to automate.

將它們組合在一起是一項勞動密集型工作，而且不易實現自動化。

Other things, like the cut-and-sew work used to make fabrics for interiors, tend to be lower-wage jobs.

其他工作，如用於製作內飾織物的裁剪和縫紉工作，往往是低工資工作。