Name: 隨便解釋一下比特幣 (Casually Explained: Bitcoin)
Uploaded: 2025-06-05T02:53:00.000Z
Duration: 10 min 38 s

基礎被動語態

情態副詞

Now, as someone who doesn't get very emotionally attached to a financial investment, shoutouts to my future children, I think the best way to introduce Bitcoin is with a quote from Sun Tzu's famous blog post, The Art of War, where he said, I fear not the man who's read a thousand crypto white papers, I fear the man who's read one crypto white paper a thousand times.

現在，作為一個對金融投資沒有太多感情的人，我認為介紹比特幣的最好方式是引用孫子的著名博文《孫子兵法》中的一句話：我不怕讀過一千遍加密白皮書的人，我怕讀過一千遍加密白皮書的人。

轉承詞

Because if you go on crypto Twitter, God forbid, there's no more common way to dismiss Bitcoin skeptics than simply saying, do the work.

因為如果你上了加密推特，上帝保佑，沒有比簡單地說 "做做看 "更常見的駁回比特幣懷疑論者的方式了。

So a few years ago, that led me to set aside a day to really dive into and study the Bitcoin white paper.

是以，幾年前，我花了一天時間深入研究比特幣白皮書。

One morning, I sat down, had way too much coffee, which for me is one, opened the PDF and started reading.

一天早上，我坐下來，喝了太多的咖啡（對我來說，咖啡就是一杯），打開 PDF 開始閱讀。

After just five minutes, I sat back and thought, wow, because there wasn't any more pages.

五分鐘後，我坐下來想，哇，因為沒有更多的頁面了。

Not knocking the content, but if anyone tells you they did the work, just know what they meant was they read a pamphlet.

我不是說內容不好，但如果有人告訴你是他們做的工作，你要知道他們的意思是他們讀了一本小冊子。

In brief, the reason the Bitcoin network was innovative was because in 2008, anonymous chess grandmaster Satoshi Nakamoto proposed a solution to a problem that had been plaguing digital currencies for decades, which is if I want to buy two large pizzas from Papa John's, but I have no cash to do it, how do I send the money digitally without a financial institution having to verify the transaction between us?

簡而言之，比特幣網絡之所以具有創新性，是因為在 2008 年，匿名國際象棋大師中本聰（Satoshi Nakamoto）提出了一個解決困擾數字貨幣數十年的問題的方案，即如果我想從約翰老爹（Papa John's）購買兩個大披薩，但我沒有現金，我如何在沒有金融機構驗證我們之間的交易的情況下以數字方式發送這筆錢？

Two years later, this transaction was successfully performed.

Although at today's Bitcoin price, those two pizzas cost about $615 million, about the same as the entirety of Papa John's market cap at the time.

儘管按照今天的比特幣價格計算，這兩份披薩的成本約為 6.15 億美元，與當時約翰老爹公司的全部市值差不多。

While at first glance, it seems like a fairly practical problem to solve, it doesn't really explain why the price has gone up over 500 million percent while I didn't have any.

雖然乍一看，這似乎是一個相當實際的問題，但它並不能真正解釋為什麼價格上漲了 5 億多個百分點，而我卻沒有。

Bitcoin maximalists say that Bitcoin has gone up so much because one day it'll become the new global reserve currency, replacing all fiat on earth and be worth tens of millions of coin.

比特幣極端主義者說，比特幣之所以漲得這麼厲害，是因為有一天它會成為新的全球儲備貨幣，取代地球上的所有法定貨幣，價值數千萬比特幣。

But then there's a whole other group of Bitcoin skeptics that say it's a scam and all going to zero.

但也有一大群比特幣懷疑論者說這是個騙局，一切都會歸零。

First of all, it's not possible for Bitcoin to go to zero because a guy on Reddit said he'd buy all 21 million for one cent each.

首先，比特幣不可能歸零，因為 Reddit 上有個人說他願意以每枚 1 美分的價格買下全部 2100 萬枚比特幣。

There's also no way it can go to tens of millions of coin because that would put its evaluation at about $400 trillion.

它也不可能達到數千萬個硬幣，因為這將使其估值達到約 400 萬億美元。

This doesn't make any sense because the Bitcoin network doesn't even sell AI graphics cards.

這沒有任何意義，因為比特幣網絡甚至不出售人工智能顯卡。

Now that we know the proper price of Bitcoin is somewhere between one cent and $10 million, how do we know which direction it's going to go?

既然我們已經知道比特幣的合理價格介於 1 美分和 1 千萬美元之間，那麼我們怎麼知道它的走向呢？

If you look at what the experts say, legendary investor Charlie Munger called Bitcoin rat poison, which is clearly bearish.

如果你看看專家們是怎麼說的，傳奇投資者查理-芒格（Charlie Munger）稱比特幣是老鼠藥，這顯然是看跌的。

But if you take Michael Saylor, chairman of the Bitcoin options trading vehicle MicroStrategy, he'll tell you Bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing ever smarter, faster and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy, which I think is bullish, but I might have to ask my shaman.

但是，如果你把比特幣期權交易工具 MicroStrategy 的董事長邁克爾-賽勒（Michael Saylor）放在眼裡，他會告訴你比特幣是一群服務於智慧女神的網絡大黃蜂，以真理之火為食，在加密能量牆的背後以指數級增長，變得越來越聰明、越來越快、越來越強大。

I would also like to add that I didn't edit anything here.

我還想補充一點，我沒有編輯這裡的任何內容。

The problem I found is that if you ask anyone who's into crypto why Bitcoin has value, the most common response is it's digital gold.

我發現的問題是，如果你問任何接觸加密貨幣的人，為什麼比特幣有價值，最常見的回答是它是數字黃金。

The obvious follow up is why does gold have value, which then usually devolves into because it's scarce and because people have valued it since the dawn of humanity.

顯而易見的後續問題是，為什麼黃金有價值，這通常會演變成因為它稀缺，因為自人類誕生以來人們就一直重視它。

And while that's a great explanation for OnlyFans, this is the economic equivalent of saying it's a good store of value because it is.

雖然這對 OnlyFans 來說是一個很好的解釋，但在經濟學上，這就相當於說它是一個很好的價值存儲工具，因為它確實是。

On the other side, people from traditional finance often make the argument that a digital asset isn't real, so you can create an infinite amount of them and therefore they have no value.

另一方面，傳統金融界人士經常提出這樣的論點：數字資產並不真實，所以你可以創造無限多的數字資產，是以它們沒有價值。

This isn't a very good argument because if digital assets have no value, how can the founders of nearly every crypto project rug pull the whole thing to buy yachts?

這並不是一個很好的論據，因為如果數字資產沒有價值，那麼幾乎所有加密項目的創始人怎麼可能把整個項目拉來買遊艇呢？

Now, while you shouldn't evaluate the effectiveness of a technology based on the character of people who believe in it, I certainly do anyway.

現在，雖然你不應該根據相信某種技術的人的性格來評價這種技術的有效性，但我還是要這麼做。

And Bitcoin in particular has a strong bias towards anti-government sentiment and libertarianism.

而比特幣尤其具有強烈的反政府情緒和自由主義傾向。

If you're not sure what that means, imagine if the government were to say, because you didn't pay your fair share, 150 people died today from an underfunded government program.

如果你不確定這意味著什麼，想象一下，如果政府說，因為你沒有支付你應承擔的份額，今天有 150 人死於政府項目資金不足。

This kind of thing would really rattle a libertarian because they know that their taxes would have helped the government to get at least a dozen more.

這種事情確實會讓自由主義者感到不安，因為他們知道，他們的稅收本可以幫助政府再獲得至少一打的稅收。

Even looking at the types of people within traditional finance versus crypto, while there are some who really get it, you get the feeling that most of the people in decentralized finance aren't familiar with how the existing financial system currently works, causing them to often reinvent the wheel and run into the same mistakes that have already happened before.

即使看看傳統金融與加密貨幣的人員類型，雖然也有一些人真正理解了這一點，但你會感覺到，大多數從事去中心化金融的人並不熟悉現有金融體系目前的運作方式，這導致他們經常重新發明輪子，重蹈覆轍。

Take Sam Bankman Freed in the collapse of FTX.

就拿 FTX 崩潰時的山姆-班克曼-弗裡德來說吧。

Everyone in crypto was like, I mean, there was no oversight or transparency.

加密貨幣領域的每個人都覺得，我是說，沒有監督，也沒有透明度。

我們只是沒想到他們會這麼做。

And that made traditional finance say, what?

難道你們沒有從 2008 年學到什麼嗎？

And unfortunately, not because they were 12.

不幸的是，這並不是因為他們只有 12 歲。

For this reason, a big threat to the crypto industry has been regulation because there isn't any.

是以，加密貨幣行業面臨的一大威脅就是監管，因為沒有任何監管。

You can go on Binance, buy 75 times levered Dogecoin futures without a single confirmation window.

你可以在 Binance 上購買 75 倍槓桿的 Dogecoin 期貨，無需任何確認窗口。

And in 25 seconds, you'll either make three times your money or lose everything, which, let's be honest, is pretty fucking awesome.

在 25 秒內，你要麼賺到三倍於你的錢，要麼傾家蕩產，老實說，這可真他媽棒極了。

While this has begun changing a lot in the last few years, after so many people were losing all their money repeatedly, there is a lot of environmental criticism brought towards crypto because the process of mining new Bitcoin is extremely energy intensive as the process is done by brute forcing math problems with a huge amount of compute.

雖然在過去幾年裡，這種情況已經開始發生了很大的變化，但在很多人一再失去所有的錢之後，人們對加密貨幣提出了很多環境方面的責備，因為挖掘新比特幣的過程非常耗費能源，因為這個過程是通過大量計算強迫數學問題來完成的。

Bitcoin mining was actually banned in China because the government decided the amount of energy being expended to solve arbitrary math problems was excessively wasteful and it would be much more productive to use those children for something else.

事實上，比特幣挖礦在中國已被禁止，因為政府認為為解決任意的數學問題而耗費大量能源是一種過度浪費，將這些孩子用於其他事情會更有成效。

Generally speaking, the single biggest concern of most people is Bitcoin's price because even though it doesn't produce anything in the literal sense, from the time you could easily publicly buy it as a speculator, it is one of the best performing assets of all time.

一般來說，大多數人最關心的是比特幣的價格，因為儘管從字面意義上講，比特幣並不產生任何東西，但從你可以作為投機者輕鬆公開購買比特幣開始，它就是有史以來表現最好的資產之一。

Critics will argue that saying Bitcoin is the best performing asset of all time is like saying a winning $2 Powerball ticket is the best performing asset of all time.

批評者會說，說比特幣是有史以來表現最好的資產，就像說一張中獎的 2 美元強力球彩票是有史以來表現最好的資產一樣。

But if you bought a winning lottery ticket, you would gladly look that person dead in the eye and say, correct.

但如果你買了一張中獎彩票，你會很高興地看著那個人的眼睛說："沒錯。

There are two popular theories of pricing Bitcoin that are thrown around enough to be worth considering.

關於比特幣的定價，有兩種流行的理論值得考慮。

The first common theory is it'll take at least half the market cap from gold because they serve similar monetary purposes, which would put them both at around an $8.4 trillion market cap at today's prices or $420k a coin.

第一種常見的理論認為，它至少會搶走黃金市值的一半，因為它們的貨幣用途相似，按目前的價格計算，兩者的市值約為 8.4 萬億美元，即每枚金幣 42 萬美元。

This makes a lot of sense because the biggest Bitcoin bull I personally know is the 76-year-old guy who owns the penthouse in my apartment complex who may or may not be the Baron from Dune.

這很有道理，因為我認識的最大的比特幣大牛股就是我公寓樓頂樓的那位 76 歲老人，他可能是《沙丘》中的男爵，也可能不是。

He owns a commercial weed farm and while weed stocks aren't doing so well, the man needs a new backsplash for his kitchen.

他擁有一個商業雜草農場，雖然雜草股票表現不佳，但他的廚房需要一個新的背景牆。

The second common price theory is the use of a stock-to-flow model created by Twitter user Plan B.

第二種常見的價格理論是使用推特用戶 Plan B 創建的股票-流量模型。

And while I'm absolutely strawmanning this, a stock-to-flow model is like saying if you have 100 food and 100 hungry people, what happens to price when you have 50 food and 100 hungry people?

雖然我絕對是在草率行事，但從庫存到流量的模式就好比說，如果你有 100 份食物和 100 個飢餓的人，那麼當你有 50 份食物和 100 個飢餓的人時，價格會發生什麼變化？

The pattern then checks out in real life down to 10 food.

然後，該模式在現實生活中檢查到 10 種食物。

So logically, you can just keep extrapolating and predict if you have one crumb and 100 hungry people, how much higher would the price be for half a crumb instead?

是以，從邏輯上講，你可以繼續推斷並預測，如果你有一塊麵包屑和 100 個飢餓的人，那麼換成半塊麵包屑的價格會高出多少？

Using this model, it currently predicts the price of Bitcoin in 2030 will be $14 million a coin, which is so far beyond even the AI chip theory that the only explanation is that Cathie Wood is about to bless us with a new saga of her shonen manga.

利用這個模型，它目前預測 2030 年比特幣的價格將達到 1400 萬美元一枚，這甚至遠遠超出了人工智能芯片理論，唯一的解釋就是凱茜-伍德即將為我們帶來她的新一輪漫畫傳奇。

What's interesting at this point is that with the creation of Bitcoin ETFs, regulatory oversight emerging but giving the green light, and so much money from traditional finance pouring into the crypto ecosystem, purists look at their ascending token portfolio with glee as it seems like it's blue skies ahead for prices to climb even further.

目前有趣的是，隨著比特幣 ETF 的誕生、監管機構的出現但卻大開綠燈，以及大量來自傳統金融領域的資金湧入加密貨幣生態系統，純粹主義者們欣喜地看著他們不斷上升的代幣投資組合，因為價格進一步攀升的前景似乎一片蔚藍。

But some people have started to point out that as time has marched on, every day their favorite crypto assets trade more and more in lockstep with traditional financial assets, and ownership has become more and more concentrated on centralized exchanges and mainstream financial products.

但有些人開始指出，隨著時間的推移，他們喜愛的加密資產每天都在與傳統金融資產同步交易，所有權越來越集中在中心化交易所和主流金融產品上。

Even five years ago, the whole space was about disrupting traditional finance, but now it's about cheering on any product that lets you get exposure to the network without being part of it in the hope it drives the price higher.

甚至在五年前，整個行業還在討論如何顛覆傳統金融，但現在，人們卻在為任何能讓你接觸網絡而又不參與其中的產品歡呼雀躍，希望它能推高價格。

Just like an Oppenheimer, it's caused some people to dim the lights, adorn their trilby, and recite with scorn, he who fights with monsters should be careful, lest he thereby become a monster.

就像奧本海默一樣，它讓一些人調暗了燈光，戴上了斗篷，輕蔑地念叨著：與怪物戰鬥的人應該小心，以免是以變成怪物。

Causing everyone else to say, bro, I just want to be able to afford a house one day, can you please chill the fuck out?

導致其他人說，兄弟，我只想有一天能買得起房子，你能不能他媽的冷靜一下？

In my view so far, despite a lot of people telling me they've done the work, much like the Bitcoin blockchain, I'm still looking for proof.

在我看來，到目前為止，儘管很多人告訴我他們已經完成了這項工作，但就像比特幣區塊鏈一樣，我仍在尋找證據。

And personally, I haven't been able to find anyone who I think really has a convincing argument for the future of the technology or the price, and it's pretty much hopes, dreams, and speculation all around.

就我個人而言，我還沒有找到任何一個人能夠真正為這項技術的未來或價格提出令人信服的論據，這幾乎就是希望、夢想和猜測。

That is except for one person, a Bitcoin talk forum member from 2013 named GameCubey, who during a huge sell-off titled the thread, I am HODLing, where he went on to say, I type a D that title twice because I knew it was wrong the first time.

但有一個人除外，他是 2013 年的一位比特幣論壇會員，名叫 GameCubey，在一次大拋售中，他將主題命名為 "I am HODLing"，他接著說："我在標題上打了兩次 D，因為我知道第一次是錯的。

It's because I'm a bad trader, and I know I'm a bad trader.

這是因為我是個糟糕的交易者，我知道我是個糟糕的交易者。

You good traders can spot the highs and the lows, pit-pat, piffy, wing-wong-wang, just like that, and make a million bucks?

你們這些優秀的交易員就能發現高點和低點，"坑-拍"、"坑-拍"、"翼-翁-翁"，就像這樣，然後賺上一百萬？

I should have sold moments before every sell and bought moments before every buy, but you know what?

我應該在每次賣出前賣出，在每次買入前買入，但你知道嗎？

You only sell in a bear market if you're a good day trader or an illusion noob.

只有當你是一個優秀的日間交易者或一個幻覺新手時，你才會在低迷的市場中賣出。

In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell.

在這種零和遊戲中，只有當你賣出時，交易商才能拿走你的錢。

Actually, on the bottle, it spelled whiskey.

實際上，瓶子上寫的是威士忌。

He then passed out, not realizing the profundity of his own words, because everyone had recognized the hodler in themselves too.

然後，他昏了過去，沒有意識到自己話語的深刻含義，因為每個人也都認識到了自己身上的 "霍德勒"。

To me, GameCubey is a man who finally cracked the code on not just Bitcoin, but life in general.

在我看來，GameCubey 最終不僅破解了比特幣的密碼，也破解了生活的密碼。

You can't make a bad decision if you never decide, you can't have a regret if things could never be different, and of course what I've now adopted as my golden rule, your girlfriend can't leave you for another man if she's cheating on you with a woman.

如果你從不做決定，你就不會做出錯誤的決定；如果事情永遠不會改變，你就不會有遺憾；當然，我現在奉為金科玉律的是，如果你的女朋友和別的女人偷情，她就不能為了別的男人離開你。

Now, unlike your girlfriend leaving you, one thing you can't solve by just saying no is data brokers getting their hands on your information, who then turn around and sell that data to whoever wants to buy it, potentially getting it into the hands of robocallers, scammers, or God forbid, the government.

現在，與女朋友離開你不同的是，你光說 "不 "是解決不了問題的，那就是數據經紀人掌握了你的資訊，然後他們會把這些數據賣給任何想買它的人，有可能讓這些數據落入搶答器、金光黨或政府手中。

This is because you're giving them permission to nearly all the time whenever you sign up for things online, but if the inner libertarian in you is getting flustered already, the good news is you can use today's sponsor, Smith & Wesson.

不過，如果你內心的自由主義者已經開始焦躁不安，那麼好消息是你可以使用今天的贊助商 Smith & Wesson。

You can use today's sponsor, Incogni, to contact these data brokers for you and just say no.

您可以使用今天的贊助商 Incogni 來幫您聯繫這些數據經紀商，然後直接說 "不"。

This is because these data brokers actually have to remove your information if you ask them to.

這是因為如果你要求，這些數據經紀商實際上必須刪除你的資訊。

It's just ridiculously tedious to contact all of them and go through the process.

要聯繫所有的人並走完所有的流程，實在是太乏味了。

Incogni automates this for you in the most seamless way possible because all you have to do is sign up and immediately it does the work.

Incogni 以最無縫的方式為您自動完成這項工作，因為您只需註冊，它就會立即開始工作。

It's so simple that once you sign up, you think, okay, so what do I do now?

它非常簡單，一旦註冊，你就會想，好吧，那我現在該做什麼？

But you forgot the whole point is finding the data you use to sign up.

但你忘了，關鍵在於找到你用來註冊的數據。

Since the last time I talked about Incogni six months ago, it's done an additional 12 hours of work and completed a couple dozen more requests.

自從六個月前我上一次談及 Incogni 以來，它又多做了 12 個小時的工作，完成了幾十個請求。

If you'd like to give Incogni a try, you can use the code CASUALLY at the link below to get 60% off an annual plan.

如果您想試試 Incogni，可以在下面的鏈接中使用代碼 CASUALLY，享受年度計劃六折優惠。