Name: 臺幣為何如此堅挺 (Why Taiwan's Dollar is So Strong)
Uploaded: 2025-05-20T02:58:12.000Z
Duration: 10 min 9 s

The new Taiwan dollar, NTD, which is Taiwan's currency, is one of the most stable currencies across Asia. If we compare the NTD to many other currencies like the Japanese yen or even the

新臺幣是臺灣的貨幣，是亞洲最穩定的貨幣之一。如果我們將新臺幣與許多其他貨幣（如日元，甚至是

情態副詞

Korean won, we get to see that the NTD since the 1990s has been trading between 25 to 35 new Taiwan dollars per US dollar. That's an extremely narrow range for a span of over 30 years, especially when you consider that global markets have gone through the Asian financial crisis, the dot-com crash, the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and then a period of aggressive US monetary tightening. In contrast, the Japanese yen has seen wild fluctuations. In 1995, it was trading at around 80 per US dollar. By 2015, it weakened to 120. And in late 2022, and again in 2024, it fell past 150, a level not seen since 1990.

我們可以看到，自 20 世紀 90 年代以來，新臺幣兌美元的匯率一直在 25 至 35 新臺幣之間。尤其是考慮到全球市場經歷了亞洲金融危機、網絡保麗龍崩潰、2008 年全球金融危機、COVID-19 大流行以及隨後美國積極的貨幣緊縮政策。相比之下，日元卻經歷了劇烈波動。1995 年，日元兌美元匯率約為 80。到 2015 年，日元貶值至 120。2022 年底和 2024 年，日元跌破 150，這是自 1990 年以來從未見過的水準。

程度副詞

That's a movement of nearly 100% in depreciation over 30 years. The Korean won also behaves more like a risk currency. It has traded from 700 to 1,401 per US dollar over the past few decades.

30 年來，韓元貶值了近 100%。韓元的表現也更像一種風險貨幣。在過去幾十年裡，韓元兌美元的匯率從 700 美元兌 1 美元升至 1401 美元兌 1 美元。

Even the Chinese yuan, which is backed by the world's second-largest economy, has seen a gradual weakening trend. Around 2015, the yuan was roughly 6.2 yuan per US dollar.

即使是以世界第二大經濟體為支撐的人民幣，也出現了逐漸走弱的趨勢。2015 年前後，人民幣兌美元匯率約為 6.2 元。

By 2023 to 2025, it has fluctuated in the 7.0 to 7.3 per US dollar range, reflecting a approximately 13 to 18% depreciation over the decade. The yuan's drops often come in spurts during economic stress. For example, in late 2022, the yuan slid to about 7.33 yuan per US dollar, its lowest level since 2008, prompting Chinese authorities to intervene with support measures. While the yuan's day-to-day volatility is limited by policy, it has trended weaker due to China's slowing growth and interest rate differentials. Compared to the yuan, the TWD has been firmer. Not only has Taiwan's dollar avoided long-term depreciation, it also moves more freely in response to market forces. Taiwan intervenes mainly to smooth volatility, not rigidly peg the rate.

到 2023 年至 2025 年，人民幣兌美元匯率在 7.0 至 7.3 之間波動，十年間貶值約 13%至 18%。人民幣貶值往往是在經濟緊張時期出現的。例如，在 2022 年底，人民幣兌美元匯率跌至約 7.33 元，創下 2008 年以來的最低水平，促使中國政府採取干預措施。雖然人民幣的日常波動受到政策限制，但由於中國經濟增長放緩和利率差異，人民幣已呈走弱趨勢。與人民幣相比，新臺幣則更為堅挺。新臺幣不僅避免了長期貶值，而且在市場力量的作用下波動更加自由。臺灣的干預措施主要是為了平抑波動，而不是硬性地盯住

In fact, during the May 2025 rally, the TWD led gains in Asia, outpacing even the yuan's strength. This indicates that, at least in the current cycle, the TWD is viewed as relatively robust. Does this then suggest that Taiwan's currency, the NTD, is strong and stable?

事實上，在 2025 年 5 月的反彈中，新臺幣在亞洲領漲，甚至超過了人民幣的強勢。這表明，至少在當前週期，新臺幣被認為是相對穩健的。那麼，這是否表明臺灣貨幣新臺幣是強勢和穩定的呢？

Well, yes. But with important context. The first and most important factor that backs the strength of the NTD is Taiwan's enormous trade and current account surpluses. In 2024, Taiwan's current account surplus was about 14.3% of GDP – one of the highest in the world. For context, that's far above the Asia-Pacific average of approximately 1.9% of GDP. This surplus reflects Taiwan's strength in exports, especially high-tech goods – semiconductors, electronics. Every year, tens of billions of US dollars flow into Taiwan from global sales of its products.

嗯，是的。但要有重要的背景。支撐新臺幣升值的第一個也是最重要的一個因素是臺灣巨大的貿易和經常賬戶盈餘。2024 年，臺灣的經常項目盈餘約佔 GDP 的 14.3%，是全球最高的國家之一。這一數字遠高於亞太地區約佔 GDP 1.9% 的平均水平。這一盈餘反映了臺灣的出口實力，尤其是高科技產品--半導體和電子產品。每年都有數百億美元從臺灣產品的全球銷售中流入臺灣。

These inflows create natural demand for TWD. Exporters eventually convert their dollar earnings to local currency, tending to strengthen the TWD. In fact, years of large surpluses have led Taiwanese firms to accumulate long USD positions, which, when unwound, can cause rapid

這些資金流入創造了對新臺幣的自然需求。出口商最終會將美元收入兌換成當地貨幣，從而使新臺幣走強。事實上，多年的鉅額盈餘已導致臺灣企業積累了美元多頭頭寸，這些頭寸一旦平倉，就會導致新臺幣迅速貶值。

TWD appreciation. The surplus with the United States in particular has grown. Taiwan's exports to the US hit a record $111.4 billion in 2024. While such external surpluses bolster the currency, they have also drawn US scrutiny. Taiwan is on the US Treasury's monitoring list for potential currency manipulation. Taiwan's central bank defends the surplus as a structural result of

新臺幣升值。尤其是對美國的順差有所增長。2024 年，臺灣對美國的出口額達到創紀錄的 1114 億美元。雖然這種對外順差促進了貨幣的升值，但也引起了美國的審查。臺灣被美國財政部列入了潛在的貨幣操縱監控名單。臺灣中央銀行辯解說，順差是結構性的結果，因為

US demand for Taiwanese tech, not deliberate currency policy. Regardless, Taiwan's persistent trade surplus is a key pillar of TWD strength, supplying a steady stream of foreign exchange earnings. Thanks to those surpluses, Taiwan has amassed one of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves. As of April 2025, the central bank held about $583 billion US dollars in reserves.

美國對臺灣科技的需求，而非刻意的貨幣政策。無論如何，臺灣持續的貿易順差是新臺幣實力的重要支柱，為其提供了源源不斷的外匯收入。得益於這些盈餘，臺灣積累了世界上最大的外匯存底之一。截至 2025 年 4 月，中央銀行持有約 5,830 億美元的外匯存底。

This is the fourth-highest reserve stockpile globally, trailing only China, Japan, and

這一儲備量在全球排名第四，僅次於中國、日本和美國。

Switzerland. Large reserves equip Taiwan's central bank with plenty of ammunition to stabilise the currency if needed. Indeed, the bank has a history of intervening – buying or selling foreign currencies – to smooth out sharp TWD swings. Officials assert they have sufficient ability to deal with fluctuations and will step in to ensure stability. For example, during past crises such as the Covid shock, the central bank used its reserves to maintain orderly markets. This massive war chest gives confidence that the TWD won't spiral into free fall. The bank can counter speculative attacks or excessive moves by tapping its reserves. It also means Taiwan can afford to let the TWD strengthen at times, as it did in 2020-21, because reserves can be deployed to buffer exporters if needed. In short, Taiwan's financial defences make the TWD less prone to instability. Then thirdly, there's also Taiwan's low and stable inflation, which supports a strong currency by preserving purchasing power. Over the past decade, inflation averaged only approximately 1% annually. Even during the global inflation surge of 2022, Taiwan's CPI rose a relatively modest 2.9%. By April 2025, inflation was back near 2.0%, comfortably within control.

瑞士。龐大的外匯存底為臺灣中央銀行提供了充足的彈藥，以便在必要時穩定貨幣。事實上，臺灣央行歷來都會進行干預--買入或賣出外幣--以平抑新臺幣的劇烈波動。官員們聲稱，他們有足夠的能力應對波動，並將介入以確保穩定。例如，在過去的危機（如科維德衝擊）中，中央銀行動用儲備金維持市場秩序。龐大的儲備金使人們相信，新臺幣不會自由落體。央行可以通過動用儲備金來應對投機性攻擊或過度舉動。這也意味著臺灣可以像 2020-21 年那樣讓新臺幣時而走強，因為在必要時可以動用儲備來緩衝出口商。簡而言之，臺灣的金融防禦措施使新臺幣

The central bank projects inflation around 1.8 to 1.9% for 2025, indicating price stability.

央行預計 2025 年的通脹率約為 1.8%至 1.9%，表明物價穩定。

Low inflation means the TWD hasn't been eroded domestically, which tends to correlate with currency strength externally as well. On the interest rate front, Taiwan's benchmark interest rate is 2.00% as of March 2025, after a series of small hikes from record lows. This is far below US interest rates approximately 5%, and many peers, reflecting Taiwan's mild inflation and cautious monetary policy. The lower rate differential was a factor in TWD weakness in 2022 to 2023. Capital flowed to higher-yielding USD assets. However, Taiwan's central bank has signalled it is prioritising inflation control and views current policy as appropriately tight. Governor Yang Chin

低通脹意味著新臺幣在國內沒有受到侵蝕，這往往也與貨幣在國外的強勢相關。在利率方面，臺灣的基準利率從歷史最低點經過一系列小幅上調後，於 2025 年 3 月達到 2.00%。這遠遠低於美國約 5%的利率和許多同行的利率，反映了臺灣溫和的通脹和謹慎的貨幣政策。較低的利率差是 2022 年至 2023 年新臺幣疲軟的一個因素。資本流向了高收益的美元資產。不過，臺灣央行已表示將優先控制通脹，並認為當前政策適當緊縮。行長楊進

Long stated that inflation is under control and there are no conditions to loosen policy further.

朗表示，通脹已得到控制，沒有進一步放鬆政策的條件。

In essence, Taiwan's solid price stability allows it to maintain low interest rates without undermining the currency. And if needed, the bank can adjust rates or use other tools to defend the TWD. For example, it has used FX swap operations to help local financial institutions hedge currency risk. Finally, one must also understand that Taiwan's economy has been growing healthily, underpinning its currency. GDP expanded 4.59% in 2024, a robust pace powered by tech exports for example global demand for semiconductors and electronics, while growth may moderate to approximately 3% in 2025. Taiwan's fundamentals – a high-income, export-driven economy with low unemployment – inspire confidence in the TWD. Additionally,

從本質上講，臺灣穩固的物價穩定性使其能夠在不損害貨幣的情況下維持低利率。必要時，銀行可以調整利率或使用其他工具來保護新臺幣。例如，該行利用外匯掉期業務幫助當地金融機構規避貨幣風險。最後，我們還必須瞭解，臺灣經濟一直在健康成長，為其貨幣提供了支撐。2024 年的 GDP 增長率為 4.59%，這一強勁的增長速度得益於科技出口，例如全球對半導體和電子產品的需求，而 2025 年的增長率可能會放緩至 3%左右。臺灣的基本面--高收入、出口驅動型經濟和低失業率--激發了人們對新臺幣的信心。此外、

Taiwan's external balance sheet is strong. The country is a net creditor with more foreign assets than debts. For instance, foreign exchange reserves – US $580 plus billion – cover Taiwan's short-term external liabilities many times over. The private sector, especially large insurers and tech firms, hold substantial overseas investments. But they also hedge those exposures. Notably, Taiwanese life insurers have over US $1 trillion in assets, much invested abroad. The recent TWD surge did pose a mark-to-market hit on those overseas holdings.

臺灣的對外資產負債表十分強勁。臺灣是淨債權國，外國資產多於債務。例如，外匯存底--5800 多億美元--超過臺灣短期對外負債的許多倍。私營部門，尤其是大型保險公司和科技公司，持有大量海外投資。但它們也對沖這些風險。值得注意的是，臺灣的人壽保險公司擁有超過 1 萬億美元的資產，其中大部分投資在海外。最近新臺幣的飆升確實對這些海外投資造成了按市價計算的衝擊。

A 10% TWD appreciation could theoretically wipe out a full year of profits for some insurers.

理論上，10% 的新臺幣升值可能會使一些保險公司的全年利潤化為烏有。

However, insurers have built FX reserve buffers during prior periods of USD strength, and regulators note the industry remains well capitalised. The central bank even subsidises some hedging costs to mitigate currency mismatch risks for insurers.

不過，保險公司在之前美元走強時期已經建立了外匯存底緩衝，監管機構也注意到該行業的資本仍然充足。中央銀行甚至補貼一些對沖成本，以減輕保險公司的貨幣錯配風險。

This prudent management means that Taiwan's financial system can weather currency fluctuations without instability. In summary, the island's solid growth, huge reserves, and careful financial supervision all buttress the TWD's stability.

這種審慎的管理意味著臺灣的金融體系能夠經受住貨幣波動的考驗，而不會出現不穩定。總之，臺灣的穩健增長、鉅額儲備和謹慎的金融監管都為新臺幣的穩定提供了支持。

So, as you can see, the new Taiwan dollar emerges as a relatively strong and stable currency, rather than one that is weak or in free fall. But anyway, do let us know what you think.

是以，正如您所看到的，新臺幣是一種相對強勢和穩定的貨幣，而不是一種疲軟或自由落體的貨幣。無論如何，請告訴我們您的想法。