Name: 關稅將使美國陷入衰退：加里-席林 (Tariffs Will Put The U.S. In A Recession: Gary Shilling)
Uploaded: 2025-05-02T03:10:34.000Z
Duration: 9 min 38 s

We've been speaking with top economists to better understand what this economic climate means for companies' bottom lines.

我們一直在與頂級經濟學家交流，以更好地瞭解這種經濟環境對公司底線的影響。

Today, I'm speaking with market analyst Gary Schilling.

今天，我與市場分析師加里-席林（Gary Schilling）進行了對話。

By the way, I apologize for looking like the Tin Man from The Wizard of Oz.

順便說一句，很抱歉我看起來像《綠野仙蹤》裡的鐵皮人。

I just had some surgery on my nose to take off some pre-cancer cells.

我剛在鼻子上做了手術，切除了一些癌前細胞。

We want to start by getting your opinion on the biggest headlines.

首先，我們想聽聽您對頭條新聞的看法。

What is the impact of President Trump's tariffs on the economy, both in the long and short term?

特朗普總統的關稅政策對經濟的長期和短期影響是什麼？

When we have trade wars, which we're obviously in, particularly with China, but it's to a lesser extent with Mexico and Mexico, Canada, etc.

當我們打貿易戰時，我們顯然也在打貿易戰，尤其是與中國，但與墨西哥、墨西哥、加拿大等國的貿易戰程度較低。

When you've got plenty of goods around the world for sale, it's the buyer that has the upper hand, not the seller.

當全球有大量商品待售時，佔上風的是買家，而不是賣家。

So he's basically saying, OK, we're going to negotiate.

所以，他基本上是在說，好吧，我們要談判了。

You're going to have to, you meaning particularly Europe, but also other countries, you're going to have to support what's going on around the world to maintain things.

你們必須這樣做，尤其是歐洲，但也包括其他國家，你們必須支持世界各地正在發生的事情，以維持現狀。

So we're dealing with a different kind of situation.

是以，我們面對的是另一種情況。

Now, it's really kind of messy because obviously companies that had either buyers or sellers that were used to a trade pattern the way we had before, this is a huge shock.

現在，情況確實有點混亂，因為很明顯，那些有買家或賣家的公司已經習慣了我們之前的貿易模式，這是一個巨大的衝擊。

Someone who's used to buying cheap Asian products, and that's what globalization really was all about.

有人習慣於購買廉價的亞洲產品，而這正是全球化的真正目的。

It was the application of Western technology and cheap Asian labor to produce a huge variety of manufactured goods, many of which were exported to North America and Europe.

它應用西方技術和廉價的亞洲勞動力，生產出種類繁多的製成品，其中許多出口到北美和歐洲。

And then suddenly, you know, Trump comes along and says, wait a minute, no, we're not going to do that anymore.

然後，特朗普突然出現，說，等等，不，我們不會再這麼做了。

任何這樣的轉變都是令人揪心的。

It isn't a matter that you simply turn on and turn off the tap and everything adjusts automatically.

這不是簡單地打開和關閉水龍頭，一切就會自動調整的問題。

It takes tremendous amount of adjustments.

The adjustment process definitely means slower growth.

調整過程肯定意味著增長放緩。

And the second one, which is related to it, is that it is deflationary.

第二個問題與之相關，那就是通貨緊縮。

Supply chains, which were developed particularly in China over decades, the last 30 years or more, these take time to get reestablished.

特別是在中國發展了幾十年的供應鏈，在過去的 30 多年裡，這些供應鏈的重建需要時間。

You say, OK, we're going to switch out of China.

你說，好吧，我們從中國轉出去。

I'm particularly enthusiastic about India.

But it isn't that these things happen overnight.

但是，這些事情並不是一朝一夕就會發生的。

The next question I had is who wins and who loses in this approach?

我的下一個問題是，這種方法誰贏誰輸？

Can you talk a little bit about the winners and the losers?

And what does it mean for the American people?

Well, I'm particularly high on India for a number of reasons, and particularly in relation to China.

出於多種原因，我特別看好印度，尤其是與中國的關係。

First of all, India has the advantage that it is a democracy.

首先，印度的優勢在於它是一個民主國家。

Secondly, India has no population limits.

China, as a result of their one child per couple policy some years ago, has a declining workforce.

由於幾年前實行一對夫婦只生一個孩子的政策，中國的勞動力不斷減少。

Their workforce is going to be declining for the next four or five decades.

未來四五十年，他們的勞動力將不斷減少。

A third thing is that India inherited from the British a legal system.

第三，印度從英國人那裡繼承了一套法律體系。

Now, again, it's not what we would call a legal system.

同樣，這也不是我們所說的法律制度。

It's got a lot of flaws, but at least it is a legal system.

它有很多缺陷，但至少它是一個法律體系。

And, of course, India has inherited from the British the English language.

當然，印度也從英國人那裡繼承了英語。

And that's pretty handy in today's world.

Well, if you look at any country, as economies grow, more money proportionally is spent on services and less on goods.

那麼，如果你看看任何一個國家，隨著經濟的增長，按比例來說，更多的錢花在了服務上，而更少的錢花在了商品上。

服務業的增長速度遠遠快於商品。

Because you can only put so many cars in your driveway.

因為你只能在車道上放這麼多輛車。

But in services, you can spend almost infinitely amount of money on recreation, travel, medical services and so on.

但在服務業，你幾乎可以在娛樂、旅遊、醫療服務等方面無限花錢。

So India has a number of these advantages, which I think are going to be important in the long run.

是以，印度擁有許多這樣的優勢，我認為從長遠來看，這些優勢將非常重要。

So in the portfolios we manage, and we are money managers as well as economic consultants, we have investments in India, which I'm very, very happy with and think are going to continue to do well.

是以，在我們管理的投資組合中（我們既是資金管理者，也是經濟顧問），我們在印度有投資，我對這些投資非常非常滿意，並認為它們將繼續保持良好的業績。

That explained a lot about why you're so bullish on India.

這就解釋了為什麼你如此看好印度。

I want to bring it back domestically for a second.

Do you think that these tariffs will put the U.S. into a recession?

您認為這些關稅會使美國陷入衰退嗎？

I think that the disruptions caused by the tariffs are going to put us in a recession if we're not already there.

我認為，關稅造成的混亂將使我們陷入衰退，如果我們還沒有陷入衰退的話。

And the fact that we've had this change of approach, the U.S. is no longer supporting the free world.

事實上，我們已經改變了做法，美國不再支持自由世界。

It's really forcing other countries, particularly Europe, to carry their own load.

這實際上是在迫使其他國家，特別是歐洲，承擔自己的負擔。

Most other economies have throughout the postwar period, they've had trade surpluses versus the U.S.

在整個戰後時期，大多數其他經濟體對美國都是貿易順差。

I think that, you know, Trump's the guy who pulled the rug out from under it.

我認為，你知道，特朗普就是那個把地毯從下面拉出來的人。

Anyway, sooner or later, it was going to be much more a everyman for himself as opposed to the U.S. supporting the free world.

總之，與美國支持自由世界相比，美國遲早會成為一個人人為我的國家。

Shifting gears a little bit, what's the future of manufacturing in the U.S.?

換個角度，美國製造業的未來會怎樣？

Will American workers be able to keep up with the A.I. and robotics revolution?

美國工人能否跟上人工智能和機器人革命的步伐？

It's not as rosy as Trump would hope it is.

情況並不像特朗普希望的那樣美好。

The reality is that if you look at manufacturing employment as a percentage of total payrolls coming out of World War II was very, very strong.

現實情況是，第二次世界大戰結束後，製造業就業人數佔工資總額的百分比非常非常高。

As economies expand, people spend more money on services proportionally and less on goods.

隨著經濟的發展，人們在服務方面的支出會相應增加，而在商品方面的支出則會相應減少。

So that works to the detriment of manufacturing.

But the other one is basically globalization.

It's the fact that Western technology has been available with cheap labor, particularly in Asia.

這是因為西方的技術可以與廉價勞動力相結合，尤其是在亞洲。

And it has created manufacturing powerhouses, particularly in China.

它還創造了製造業強國，尤其是在中國。

So manufacturing to return to the U.S. in anything like what Trump may be imagining or like we had right after World War II.

是以，製造業將以特朗普可能想象的方式或二戰後的方式迴歸美國。

OK, if you went to all out protectionism and you said we cannot import any manufactured goods, you could force it, I suppose.

好吧，如果你實行全面保護主義，說我們不能進口任何製成品，我想你可以強迫它。

這將對經濟造成相當大的影響。

But manufacturing is just not going to come back.

What is coming back in manufacturing is what we have had.

製造業的迴歸就是我們曾經擁有的。

If you look at high tech areas, a lot of the design of various high tech areas, the design is done here.

如果你看看高科技領域，各種高科技領域的很多設計都是在這裡完成的。

And semiconductors basically produced in Taiwan.

They're designed here, but they're produced elsewhere where labor is a lot cheaper.

它們是在這裡設計的，卻在勞動力便宜得多的其他地方生產。

So manufacturing, yeah, high end manufacturing, some of it is returning the U.S. and will.

是以，製造業，是的，高端製造業，其中一些正在返回美國，也將返回美國。

But in terms of having factories that employ, you know, thousands of people, that's highly unlikely unless it's forced by tariffs.

但就擁有僱用數千人的工廠而言，除非是關稅所迫，否則可能性很小。

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關稅將使美國陷入衰退：加里-席林 (Tariffs Will Put The U.S. In A Recession: Gary Shilling)

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