Name: 可以阻止第三次世界大戰的人工智能武器庫 | Palmer Luckey | TED (The AI Arsenal That Could Stop World War III | Palmer Luckey | TED)
Uploaded: 2025-04-28T08:21:16.000Z
Duration: 15 min 17 s

In the early hours of a massive surprise invasion of Taiwan, China unleashes its full arsenal.

在大規模突襲臺灣的凌晨，中國釋放了全部武器庫。

分詞構句

Ballistic missiles rain down on key military installations, neutralizing air bases and command centers before Taiwan can fire a single shot.

彈道導彈雨點般地落在關鍵軍事設施上，在臺灣發射一發飛彈之前就摧毀了空軍基地和指揮中心。

The People's Liberation Army Navy moves in with overwhelming force, deploying amphibious assault ships and aircraft carriers, while cyberattacks cripple Taiwan's infrastructure and prevent emergency response.

中國人民解放軍海軍以壓倒性的力量進入臺灣，部署兩棲攻擊艦和航空母艦，而網絡攻擊則使臺灣的基礎設施癱瘓，無法做出緊急反應。

The Chinese rocket forces' long-range missiles shred through our defenses.

中國火箭軍的遠程飛彈擊穿了我們的防線。

Ships, command and control nodes, and critical assets are destroyed before they can even engage.

艦艇、指揮和控制節點以及關鍵資產甚至在交戰之前就已被摧毀。

The United States attempts to respond, but it quickly becomes clear.

美國試圖做出迴應，但情況很快就變得明朗起來。

Not enough platforms to carry those weapons.

沒有足夠的平臺來運載這些武器。

American warships, too slow and too few, sink to the bottom of the Pacific under anti-ship missile swarms.

美國戰艦速度太慢、數量太少，在反艦導彈群的攻擊下沉入太平洋海底。

Our fighter jets, piloted by brave but outnumbered human pilots, are shot down one by one.

我們的戰鬥機由勇敢但寡不敵眾的人類飛行員駕駛，被一架架擊落。

The United States exhausts its shallow arsenal of precision munitions in a mere eight days.

美國在短短八天內就耗盡了其淺薄的精確彈藥庫。

Taiwan falls within weeks, and the world wakes up to a new reality, one where the world's dominant power is no longer a democracy.

臺灣在幾周內淪陷，世界被新的現實驚醒，世界霸主不再是民主國家。

This is the war U.S. military analysts fear most, not just because of outdated technology or slow decision-making, but because our lack of capacity, our sheer shortage of tools and platforms, means we can't even get into the fight.

這是美國軍事分析家最擔心的戰爭，不僅僅是因為技術落後或決策遲緩，還因為我們能力不足，工具和平臺奇缺，這意味著我們甚至無法投入戰鬥。

When China invades Taiwan, the consequences will be global.

中國一旦入侵臺灣，後果將是全球性的。

Taiwan is the undisputed epicenter of the world's chip supply, producing over 90% of most advanced semiconductors.

臺灣是無可爭議的全球芯片供應中心，生產超過 90% 的最先進半導體。

The high-performance chips that power today's AI, GPOs, robotics.

為當今人工智能、GPO 和機器人提供動力的高性能芯片。

These are also the chips that power your phones, computers, cars, and medical devices.

這些芯片還為手機、電腦、汽車和醫療設備提供動力。

If those factories are seized or destroyed, the global economy will crash overnight.

如果這些工廠被查封或摧毀，全球經濟將在一夜之間崩潰。

Tens of trillions of dollars in losses, supply chains in chaos, the worst economic depression in a century.

數萬億美元的損失、混亂的供應鏈、百年來最嚴重的經濟蕭條。

China is an autocracy, and a world where China dictates the terms of international order is a world where individual freedoms erode, authoritarianism spreads, and smaller nations are forced into submission.

中國是一個專制國家，一個由中國主宰國際秩序的世界是一個個人自由受到侵蝕、專制主義蔓延、小國被迫屈服的世界。

And before anyone shrugs this off as the plot of Michael Bay's latest movie, we've seen this film before, Just Ask Ukraine.

如果有人認為這是邁克爾-貝最新電影中的情節，那就大錯特錯了。

At this point, you might be wondering why a guy in a Hawaiian shirt and flip-flops is up here talking about potential World War III.

說到這裡，你可能會好奇，為什麼一個穿著夏威夷襯衫和人字拖的傢伙會在這裡談論可能發生的第三次世界大戰。

When I was 19 years old, I founded Oculus VR while I was living in a camper trailer and then brought virtual reality to the masses.

19 歲那年，我住在露營拖車裡創辦了 Oculus VR，隨後將虛擬現實技術帶給了大眾。

Years later, I was fired from Facebook after donating $9,000 to the wrong political candidate, and that left me with a choice, either fade intuitive relevance and islands or build something that actually mattered.

幾年後，我因為向錯誤的政治候選人捐贈了 9000 美元而被 Facebook 解僱，這讓我面臨一個選擇：要麼淡出直觀的相關性和孤島，要麼建立真正重要的東西。

I wanted to solve a problem that was being ignored, one that would shape the future of this country and the world.

我想解決一個被忽視的問題，一個將影響這個國家和世界未來的問題。

Despite the incredible technological progress happening all around us, our defense sector was stuck in the past.

儘管我們周圍發生了令人難以置信的技術進步，但我們的國防部門仍停留在過去。

The biggest defense contractors had stopped innovating as fast as they had before, prioritizing shareholder dividends over advanced capability, prioritizing bureaucracy over breakthroughs.

最大的國防承包商已經不再像以前那樣快速創新，而是優先考慮股東分紅而不是先進能力，優先考慮官僚作風而不是突破。

Silicon Valley, which was home to many of our top engineers and scientists, had turned its back on defense and the military writ large, betting on China as the only economy or government worth pandering to.

硅谷是我們許多頂尖工程師和科學家的故鄉，但它卻背棄了國防和軍事，將中國視為唯一值得投其所好的經濟體或政府。

Tech companies that once partnered with the military had decided that national security was someone else's problem.

曾經與軍方合作的科技公司認為，國家安全是別人的問題。

Your Tesla has better AI than any U.S. aircraft.

你的特斯拉擁有比任何美國飛機都更好的人工智能。

Your Roomba has better autonomy than most of the Pentagon's weapons systems.

您的 Roomba 比五角大樓大多數武器系統的自主性都要好。

They rely on better computer vision than our most advanced military sensors.

它們所依賴的計算機視覺比我們最先進的軍用傳感器還要好。

Now, I knew that if both the smartest minds in technology and the biggest players in defense both deprioritized innovation, the United States would forever lose its ability to protect our way of life.

現在，我知道，如果技術領域最聰明的人和國防領域最大的參與者都不重視創新，美國將永遠失去保護我們生活方式的能力。

And with so few willing to solve that problem, I decided that I would try my best.

而願意解決這個問題的人卻寥寥無幾，我決定盡力而為。

So I founded a company called Anduril, not a defense contractor, but a defense product company.

是以，我成立了一家名為 Anduril 的公司，它不是一家國防承包商，而是一家國防產品公司。

We spend our own money building defense products that work rather than asking taxpayers to foot the bill.

我們用自己的錢來製造有效的國防產品，而不是讓納稅人來買單。

The result is that we move much faster and at lower cost than most traditional primes.

是以，我們的行動比大多數傳統代理公司更快，成本更低。

Our first pitch deck to our investors, who are very aligned with us, said it plainly.

我們向投資者（他們與我們的理念非常一致）提供的第一份宣傳材料就直截了當地說明了這一點。

We will save taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars a year by making tens of billions of dollars a year.

我們將通過每年賺取數百億美元為納稅人節省數千億美元。

Now, while we make dozens of different hardware products, our core system is a piece of software, an AI platform called Lattice, that lets us deploy millions of weapons without risking millions of lives.

現在，雖然我們生產了幾十種不同的硬件產品，但我們的核心繫統是一個軟件，一個名為 Lattice 的人工智能平臺，它讓我們可以部署數百萬件武器，而不必冒數百萬人喪生的風險。

It also allows us to make updates to those weapons at the speed of code, ensuring we always stay one step ahead of emerging and reactive threats.

它還允許我們以代碼的速度對這些武器進行更新，確保我們始終領先一步應對新出現的和被動的威脅。

Another big difference is that we design hardware for mass production using existing infrastructure and industrial base.

另一個重大區別是，我們設計的硬件是利用現有基礎設施和工業基礎進行大規模生產的。

Unlike traditional contractors, we build, test, and deploy our products in months, not years.

與傳統承包商不同的是，我們在數月而非數年內完成產品的構建、測試和部署。

That approach has allowed us in less than eight years to build autonomous fighter jets for the United States Air Force, school bus-sized autonomous submarines for the Australian Navy, and augmented reality headsets that give every one of our superheroes superpowers, to name just a few.

這種方法讓我們在不到八年的時間裡為美國空軍制造出了自主戰鬥機，為澳洲海軍制造出了校車大小的自主潛水艇，還製造出了增強現實頭盔，讓我們的每個超級英雄都擁有了超能力。

We also built counter-drone technology, like Roadrunner here, which is a twin turbojet-powered reusable counter-drone interceptor that we took from napkin sketch to real-world combat-validated capability in less than 24 months.

我們還開發了反無人機技術，比如 "路跑者"（Roadrunner），它是一種雙渦輪噴氣式可重複使用的反無人機攔截器，我們在不到24個月的時間內就將其從草圖變為經過實戰驗證的能力。

Now, coming from a guy who builds weapons for a living, what I'm about to say next might sound counterintuitive to you.

現在，對於一個以製造武器為生的人來說，我接下來要說的話可能聽起來有悖常理。

At our core, we're about fostering peace.

We deter conflict by making sure our adversaries know they can't compete.

我們通過讓對手知道他們無法與我們競爭來遏制衝突。

Putin invaded Ukraine because he believed that he could win.

普京入侵烏克蘭是因為他相信自己能贏。

Countries only go to war when they disagree as to who the victor will be.

各國只有在對誰將是勝利者存在分歧時才會開戰。

That's what deterrence is all about, not saber-rattling, making aggression so costly that adversaries don't try in the first place.

這才是威懾的真諦，而不是劍拔弩張，讓侵略付出如此高昂的代價，以至於對手從一開始就不敢嘗試。

For centuries, military power was derived by size.

幾個世紀以來，軍事力量都是由規模決定的。

更多部隊、更多坦克、更多火力。

But over the last few decades, the defense industry has spent far too long handcrafting exquisite, almost impossible-to-build weapons.

但在過去的幾十年裡，國防工業花費了太多時間手工打造精美絕倫、幾乎無法制造的武器。

Meanwhile, China has studied how we fight, and they've invested in the technologies and the mass that counter our specific strategies.

與此同時，中國已經研究了我們的作戰方式，並在技術和品質方面進行了投資，以應對我們的特定戰略。

Today, China has the world's largest navy, with 232 times the shipbuilding capacity of the United States, the world's largest Coast Guard, the world's largest standing ground force, and the world's largest missile arsenal, with production capacity growing every single day.

今天，中國擁有世界上規模最大的海軍，造船能力是美國的 232 倍，擁有世界上規模最大的海岸警衛隊，擁有世界上規模最大的常備陸軍，擁有世界上規模最大的飛彈庫，而且生產能力與日俱增。

We'll never meet China's numerical advantage through traditional means, nor should we try.

我們永遠無法通過傳統手段來滿足中國的數量優勢，我們也不應該嘗試。

What we need isn't more of these same systems.

我們需要的不是更多相同的系統。

We need fundamentally different capabilities.

We need autonomous systems that can augment our existing manned fleets.

我們需要能夠增強現有載人艦隊的自主系統。

We need intelligent platforms that can operate in contested environments where human-piloted systems simply cannot.

我們需要能夠在人類駕駛系統根本無法應對的有爭議環境中運行的智能平臺。

We need weapons that can be produced at scale, deployed rapidly, and updated continuously.

我們需要能夠大規模生產、快速部署和不斷更新的武器。

In a conflict where our capacity is our greatest vulnerability, what we really need is a production model that mirrors the best of our commercial sector, fast, scalable, and resilient.

在衝突中，我們的能力是我們最大的弱點，我們真正需要的是一種生產模式，它能反映我們商業部門的精華，快速、可擴展、有彈性。

We rallied our industrial base during World War II to mass-produce weapons at an unprecedented scale.

二戰期間，我們集結工業基礎，以前所未有的規模大規模生產武器。

The Ford Motor Company, for example, produced one B-24 bomber every 63 minutes.

例如，福特汽車公司每 63 分鐘生產一架 B-24 轟炸機。

But to actually achieve the benefits of these mass-produced systems, we need them to be smarter.

但要真正實現這些批量生產系統的優勢，我們需要它們更加智能。

AI is the only possible way we can keep up with China's numerical advantage.

人工智能是我們跟上中國數量優勢的唯一可能途徑。

We don't want to throw millions of people into the fight like they do.

我們不想像他們那樣把數百萬人投入戰鬥。

我們不能這樣做，也不應該這樣做。

AI software allows us to build a different kind of force, one that isn't limited by cost or complexity or population or manpower, but instead by adaptability, scale, and speed of manufacturing.

人工智能軟件讓我們能夠建立一支與眾不同的部隊，這支部隊不受成本、複雜性、人口或人力的限制，而是受制於製造的適應性、規模和速度。

Now, the ethical implications of AI in warfare are serious, but here's the truth.

現在，人工智能在戰爭中的倫理影響是嚴重的，但事實是這樣的。

If the United States doesn't lead in this space, authoritarian regimes will, and they won't be concerned with our ethical norms.

如果美國不在這一領域發揮帶頭作用，專制政權就會發揮帶頭作用，而他們不會關心我們的道德準則。

It reduces collateral damage, hopefully can eliminate some conflicts altogether.

它減少了附帶損害，有望徹底消除一些衝突。

The good news is that U.S. and our allies have the technology, human capital, and expertise to mass-produce these new kinds of autonomous systems and launch a new golden age of defense production.

好消息是，美國和我們的盟國擁有大規模生產這些新型自主系統的技術、人力資本和專業知識，並開啟了國防生產的新黃金時代。

With all that information in mind, let's go back to Taiwan, but imagine a different scenario.

有了這些資訊，讓我們回到臺灣，但想象一下不同的情景。

Chinese missiles streak towards Taiwan, but this time, the response is instant.

中國飛彈飛向臺灣，但這一次，臺灣的反應是即時的。

A fleet of AI-driven autonomous drones, already stationed in the region by allies, launch within seconds.

盟國已在該地區部署了人工智能驅動的自動無人機群，它們將在數秒內發射。

Swarming together in coordinated attacks, they intercept incoming Chinese bombers and cruise missiles before they ever reach Taiwan.

它們蜂擁而至，協同攻擊，在來襲的中國轟炸機和巡航導彈到達臺灣之前將其攔截。

In the Pacific, a distributed force of unmanned submarines, stealthy drone warships, and autonomous aircraft that work alongside manned systems strike from unpredictable locations.

在太平洋地區，由無人潛艇、隱形無人戰艦和自主飛機組成的分佈式部隊與有人駕駛系統並肩作戰，從不可預測的地點發起攻擊。

Our AI-piloted fighter swarms engage Chinese aircraft in dogfights, responding faster than any human possibly could.

我們的人工智能駕駛戰鬥機群與中國飛機展開激戰，反應比任何人都快。

On the ground, robotic sentries and AI-assisted long-range fires halt China's amphibious assault before a single Chinese boot reaches Taiwan's shores.

在地面上，機器人哨兵和人工智能輔助遠程火力在一隻中國靴子到達臺灣海岸之前就阻止了中國的兩棲攻擊。

By deploying autonomous systems at scale, this type of autonomous system, we prove to our adversaries that we have the capacity to win.

通過大規模部署這種自主系統，我們向對手證明，我們有能力贏得勝利。

這樣我們才能重新獲得威懾力。

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可以阻止第三次世界大戰的人工智能武器庫 | Palmer Luckey | TED (The AI Arsenal That Could Stop World War III | Palmer Luckey | TED)

figure

present

engage

prioritize