Name: 為什麼澳洲的奇蹟經濟正在失敗？ (Why Australia’s Miracle Economy Is Failing)
Uploaded: 2025-04-19T15:38:51.000Z
Duration: 9 min 37 s

Australia, the land of sandy beaches, koalas and flat whites.

澳洲，充滿沙灘、考拉和平底白葡萄酒的國度。

The land down under has also long been known for its prosperous economy, with many calling it the lucky country.

長期以來，這片土地還以其繁榮的經濟而聞名，許多人稱它為幸運之國。

情態助動詞 B1

Australia's economy is known as a miracle economy, but miracles don't last forever.

澳洲的經濟被稱為奇蹟經濟，但奇蹟不會永遠持續下去。

When it comes to Australia, things look good until you peer under the hood.

說到澳洲，在你窺探引擎蓋之前，一切都看起來不錯。

However, in per-person terms, we've been going backwards.

然而，就人均而言，我們一直在倒退。

In other words, while Australia's economy isn't in a recession, its people are.

換句話說，雖然澳洲的經濟沒有陷入衰退，但人民卻陷入了衰退。

We start to have rules that we just can eat out once per week.

我們開始規定每週只能在外面吃一次飯。

We really watch what we spend and we have a budget for everything.

我們非常注意自己的花銷，凡事都有預算。

So how did Australia's economy get here, and is the country running out of luck?

那麼，澳洲的經濟是如何走到這一步的？

Australia is one of those rare countries in the world which has avoided a recession since the early 1990s, if you take the pandemic period out.

如果剔除大流行病時期，澳洲是世界上少有的自 20 世紀 90 年代初以來避免了經濟衰退的國家之一。

And that is largely owing to its huge resources.

We've had a couple of mining booms in a row.

我們已經連續經歷了幾次礦業繁榮。

These were catalyzed by China's strong growth and emergence as it continued to develop following its accession to the World Trade Organization and its entry into the global economy.

中國在加入世界貿易組織和進入全球經濟後不斷髮展，實現了強勁增長和崛起，從而推動了這些增長和崛起。

Australia is the world's second largest exporter of coal and also a top producer of iron ore, natural gas and gold.

澳洲是世界第二大煤炭出口國，也是鐵礦石、天然氣和黃金的主要生產國。

Natural resources make up nearly 60% of all the country's exports.

自然資源佔該國出口總額的近 60%。

Between June 2023 and June 2024, mining alone contributed to $280 billion in export revenue.

2023 年 6 月至 2024 年 6 月期間，僅採礦業就貢獻了 2800 億美元的出口收入。

That's more than the entire GDP of New Zealand or Greece.

這比紐西蘭或希臘的全部國內生產總值還要多。

Another big contributor for Australia's economic growth has been population.

人口是澳洲經濟增長的另一個重要因素。

Australia has relied a lot on international migration.

Over the past 20 years, migration growth in Australia has been 35%.

在過去的 20 年中，澳洲的移民增長率為 35%。

That is much faster than any other developed world countries.

這比世界上任何其他發達國家都要快得多。

Australia's always been an immigration nation and strong population growth has been one of those things that helped to underpin that growth story.

澳洲一直是一個移民國家，而強勁的人口增長則是支撐澳洲經濟增長的因素之一。

In fact, Australia's economy has grown every single year over the past three decades, barring the pandemic period.

事實上，在過去的三十年裡，除大流行病時期外，澳洲的經濟每年都在增長。

The country's economy even grew during the financial crisis, unlike other major economies like the US, Canada and the UK, which all went through a recession.

與美國、加拿大和英國等其他主要經濟體都經歷了經濟衰退不同，該國經濟在金融危機期間甚至還出現了增長。

But lately, Australia's been having a bad streak.

但最近，澳洲的情況有些不妙。

I'm the owner of a small coffee shop from Vietnam.

我是越南一家小咖啡店的老闆。

2017年7月，我第一次來到澳洲。

Last year, we were trying to look for a one-beddy apartment for me and my boyfriend.

去年，我們正在為我和男朋友尋找一套一房間的公寓。

And we kept applying, but it all got rejected.

我們一直在申請，但都被拒絕了。

And there's always a very big line of people inspecting the properties.

檢查房產的人總是排著很長的隊伍。

Australia is in the grips of a well-documented housing crisis as home prices continue to climb with demand still outstripping supply.

澳洲正處於一場有目共睹的住房危機之中，房價持續攀升，但需求仍然供不應求。

This shows the median price of a house relative to income.

這顯示了相對於收入的房屋中位價格。

Homes in Sydney are the second most expensive in the world, just after Hong Kong.

雪梨的住宅價格僅次於香港，位居世界第二。

And it's not only housing prices that have been going up.

Bloomberg has a barbecue index that measures the prices of food that goes into a barbecue.

彭博社有一個燒烤指數，用來衡量燒烤食品的價格。

So we are talking prices of pork, beef, ice creams, cheeses, vegetables.

是以，我們談論的是豬肉、牛肉、冰淇淋、奶酪和蔬菜的價格。

Since its creation in 2020, the price of all of these ingredients have risen significantly.

自 2020 年創立以來，所有這些成分的價格都大幅上漲。

Because we have to buy fresh every day, so we have to constantly buy new fresh ingredients.

因為我們每天都要購買新鮮食材，所以我們必須不斷購買新的新鮮食材。

And those price fluctuations are really, really hitting us hard.

這些價格波動對我們的打擊非常非常大。

But you know that people are suffering as well.

You're kind of hesitant to increase the price because it's pressure for everyone.

你有點猶豫要不要漲價，因為這對每個人都有壓力。

While Australia isn't unique in seeing high inflation, the problem is that what's not been going up at the same rate as prices has been people's wages.

雖然澳洲並不是唯一一個出現高通脹的國家，但問題在於，與物價上漲速度不一致的是人們的工資。

People are feeling like they are paying a lot more for everyday goods, but they are not making a lot more money.

人們感覺購買日常用品要多花很多錢，但他們並沒有多賺很多錢。

The blue line shows the inflation rate in Australia, and these bars show how wages have changed, taking inflation into account.

藍線顯示的是澳洲的通貨膨脹率，這些柱形圖顯示的是考慮到通貨膨脹因素後工資的變化情況。

As you can see here, for more than two years, real wages were negative.

如圖所示，兩年多來，實際工資一直為負值。

And while the country's overall GDP continued to grow, its GDP per capita began to fall.

在國家總體 GDP 持續增長的同時，人均 GDP 卻開始下降。

In fact, per capita GDP fell for 21 consecutive months from March 2023 until December 2024.

事實上，從 2023 年 3 月到 2024 年 12 月，人均國內生產總值連續 21 個月下降。

All of this means that at the end of the day, people can afford to buy and save less.

所有這一切都意味著，到了最後，人們買得起，卻存不下錢。

These lines show the growth in household disposable income.

這些線條顯示了家庭可支配收入的增長情況。

Then the pandemic hit, and look at what happens.

然後大流行病襲來，看看會發生什麼。

它遠遠低於經合組織的平均水平。

There are several factors behind this unlucky streak.

這種不吉利的狀況背後有幾個因素。

While the country has widely welcomed immigrants, it hasn't expanded its housing supply fast enough to accommodate the inflow of people.

雖然該國廣泛歡迎移民，但其住房供應擴張的速度還不夠快，無法滿足人口流入的需要。

After the pandemic, when Australia reopened its borders, we saw a big influx of people coming from overseas, and that put a lot of pressure on our existing resources, in particular housing.

大流行病過後，澳洲重新開放了邊境，大量人口從海外湧入，這給我們現有的資源，尤其是住房造成了很大壓力。

Land use and land supply has been constrained by planning regulations.

土地利用和土地供應受到規劃條例的限制。

Australia has not built enough affordable or social housing.

澳洲沒有建造足夠的經濟適用房或社會住房。

Rental affordability is at its lowest since at least 2008.

租房負擔能力至少達到了 2008 年以來的最低點。

That is a very big proportion of anybody's income going into rents or going into mortgage payments.

在任何人的收入中，用於支付房租或房貸的比例都非常大。

A good way of figuring out the health of an economy is how much people spend versus their income.

瞭解經濟健康狀況的一個好方法是看人們的支出與收入的對比情況。

Australia's household debt is over 200% of household income.

澳洲的家庭債務超過家庭收入的 200%。

In comparison, the US is around half this.

相比之下，美國大約只有美國的一半。

And then there's the issue of productivity.

Productivity in very simple terms is how much you produce from your existing resources.

簡單地說，生產力就是利用現有資源生產多少產品。

If I'm able to produce more goods and services from my existing resources, then I'm able to make more profits.

如果我能利用現有資源生產更多的商品和服務，那麼我就能賺取更多的利潤。

I'm probably able to pay more wages, adding more to economic activity, paying more taxes, etc.

我可能能夠支付更多的工資，增加更多的經濟活動，繳納更多的稅收等等。

Well, Australia's productivity has been flagging.

If we look over the course of the last decade, GDP per hour worked in Australia's economy has been flat.

縱觀過去十年，澳洲經濟的每小時工作 GDP 一直保持平穩。

It's almost a lost decade of productivity growth.

這幾乎是失去了生產力增長的十年。

The orange line, which is Australia, was above the green line, which is the US, for years.

澳洲的橙線多年來一直高於美國的綠線。

Then comes the pandemic and the country's productivity growth switches.

後來又發生了大流行病，國家的生產力增長髮生了變化。

Australia's economy is very services dependent.

Care sector is Australia's largest sector.

We've seen big increases in disability services, age services, some of these less productive relative to mining or manufacturing or other industries within the economy.

我們看到，殘障人士服務、養老服務等行業都有大幅增長，其中一些行業相對於採礦業、製造業或經濟中的其他行業來說生產率較低。

Then if you look at start-ups, which usually drive up productivity, their funding per capita in Australia is way behind other countries.

再看初創企業，它們通常會推動生產力的提高，但澳洲的人均資金投入卻遠遠落後於其他國家。

Inserting that dynamism into the economy, and in turn, boosting productivity, will be a key challenge for the Australian government in the years to come.

為經濟注入活力，進而提高生產率，將是澳大利亞政府在未來幾年面臨的主要挑戰。

This is a whole new world of uncertainty that we're dealing with here.

這是一個充滿不確定性的全新世界。

We're seeing policy uncertainty out of the US.

我們看到美國政策的不確定性。

China is slowing, and so our job is to provide that cost of living relief in a responsible way at the same time as we make our economy more resilient to these external shocks.

中國經濟增長正在放緩，是以我們的任務是以負責任的方式降低生活成本，同時使我們的經濟更能抵禦這些外部衝擊。

Some politicians have spoken about the need for an economic reform.

一些政治家談到了經濟改革的必要性。

Australia has not had a major economic reform since the 1990s.

自 20 世紀 90 年代以來，澳洲從未進行過重大經濟改革。

On the manufacturing side of the economy and the mining side of the economy, we can continue to foster innovation, encourage investment, to help make sure that those industries are as competitive as possible.

在製造業和採礦業方面，我們可以繼續促進創新、鼓勵投資，以幫助確保這些行業儘可能具有競爭力。

The government's already taken a step in this direction by introducing a plan to boost green manufacturing and high-tech.

政府已經朝著這個方向邁出了一步，推出了一項促進綠色製造和高科技發展的計劃。

However, analysts say the funding levels are comparatively small and more work needs to be done to identify potential opportunities for Australia.

不過，分析人士表示，這些資金數額相對較小，需要做更多的工作來確定澳洲的潛在機會。

That is really important in this current era of trade war where countries are slapping tariffs on one another.

在當前各國互相徵收關稅的貿易戰時代，這一點非常重要。

Fixing the housing crisis will be another key challenge.

解決住房危機將是另一個關鍵挑戰。

Australia has earned a fairly good reputation as one of the highest performing economies in the world.

澳洲作為世界上經濟表現最好的國家之一，已經贏得了相當好的聲譽。

But what's at stake here, if we don't turn this productivity story around, is seeing Australia's relative economic standing begin to fall behind.

但是，如果我們不扭轉生產率低下的局面，澳洲的相對經濟地位就會開始落後。