Name: 【關稅之亂】川普為何對越南等國徵收高額關稅？(Why Trump Slapped High Tariffs On Countries Like Vietnam)
Uploaded: 2025-04-14T12:48:37.000Z
Duration: 8 min 21 s

Over the past decade, investors have poured capital into Southeast Asia.

過去十年間，投資者紛紛將資金投入東南亞。

They export a lot of final assembly of electronics, like some of your iPhones or your Samsung smartphones.

他們出口大量電子產品的最終組裝，比如你們的一些 iPhone 或三星智能手機。

President Trump's tariff plan could shake up this trade.

特朗普總統的關稅計劃可能會動搖這一貿易。

Leaders around the world have asked the White House to back down from the tax hikes.

世界各國領導人要求白宮放棄增稅。

In response, President Trump lowered tariff rates to 10% on most countries, except China.

作為迴應，特朗普總統將除中國以外的大多數國家的關稅稅率降至 10%。

I also have to say 90-day pauses are not an eradication of tariff risk.

我還得說，90 天的暫停並不能消除關稅風險。

The tax hikes on products across Southeast Asia could be potent.

對東南亞各地產品的增稅可能會造成嚴重影響。

U.S. imports of Vietnamese products grew rapidly in recent years.

近年來，美國對越南產品的進口增長迅速。

Experts say this may be connected to foul play from China.

專家稱，這可能與來自中國的不法行為有關。

Our analysis points to some tentative evidence of rerouting, particularly by Chinese firms that newly invested in Vietnam after 2018.

我們的分析指出了一些改道的初步證據，特別是2018年後在越南新投資的中國企業。

If this can be definitively shown, countervailing measures against those particular exporters may be warranted.

如果能夠明確證明這一點，就有理由對這些出口商採取反補貼措施。

What could these developments mean for producers in Vietnam, and their customers in the United States?

這些發展對越南的生產商和他們在美國的客戶意味著什麼？

Factories in Vietnam produce many consumer goods sold in the U.S.

越南工廠生產許多在美國銷售的消費品。

Vietnam has become the second-largest supplier of clothing and shoes to the U.S. after China.

越南已成為僅次於中國的美國第二大服裝和鞋類供應國。

Major American brands source heavily from Vietnam.

For example, Nike produces about 50% of its footwear and 28% of its apparel in Vietnam.

例如，耐克公司約 50% 的鞋類產品和 28% 的服裝產品在越南生產。

Manufacturers in Vietnam produce furniture for companies like Wayfair, and toys for companies like Hasbro and Mattel.

越南的製造商為 Wayfair 等公司生產傢俱，為 Hasbro 和 Mattel 等公司生產玩具。

Companies like Apple and Samsung also rely on Vietnam's manufacturing.

蘋果和三星等公司也依賴越南的製造業。

You know, Samsung alone employs 160,000 workers in Vietnam.

要知道，僅三星一家就在越南僱傭了 16 萬名工人。

Between 2018 and today, more and more companies started actually investing anew in Vietnam.

從 2018 年到今天，越來越多的公司開始在越南重新進行實際投資。

So Apple coordinated with a lot of its Taiwanese suppliers to move more production into Vietnam.

是以，蘋果公司與許多臺灣供應商協調，將更多的生產轉移到越南。

Businesses with supply chains that run through Vietnam saw their stocks sink as news of higher import taxes spread.

由於進口稅提高的消息不脛而走，供應鏈經過越南的企業股票下挫。

If tariff rates proposed in April go into effect, they could cost around $3,800 for the average U.S. household.

如果 4 月份提出的關稅稅率生效，美國普通家庭可能要支付約 3,800 美元。

The U.S. has a much higher level of gross domestic product per capita when compared to Vietnam's.

美國的人均國內生產總值遠高於越南。

There is simply a lot more demand in the United States for the kinds of things that Vietnam exports than there is demand in Vietnam for what the United States exports.

美國對越南出口商品的需求量遠遠大於越南對美國出口商品的需求量。

And that's a function of the fact that the two economies are at very, very different levels of development.

這是因為兩個經濟體的發展水準相差甚遠。

So the United States is an advanced economy.

是以，美國是一個先進的經濟體。

We tend to export goods that are capital intensive.

我們傾向於出口資本密集型產品。

Vietnam is a relatively poorer country where demand for things like the new 787 is going to be much more limited.

越南是一個相對貧窮的國家，對新型 787 等飛機的需求將更加有限。

The White House says that higher tariff rates will help the U.S. compete with rising powers like China.

白宮表示，提高關稅率將有助於美國與中國等崛起中的大國競爭。

In recent years, businesses have reduced their production in China and ramped up in other developing countries like Vietnam.

近年來，企業減少了在中國的生產，增加了在越南等其他開發中國家的生產。

This is known as the China plus one strategy.

這就是所謂的 "中國加一 "戰略。

The way production works these days, pieces of a product come from all over the world and that are assembled together.

如今的生產方式是，產品部件從世界各地運來，然後組裝在一起。

But over the years, China had become the factory for the world.

但多年來，中國已成為世界工廠。

And so a lot of supply chains were entirely located inside China.

是以，很多供應鏈都完全位於中國境內。

So for example, an Apple iPhone, all the components would be produced and then finally assembled in China.

是以，以蘋果 iPhone 為例，所有部件都在中國生產，最後在中國組裝。

And it became risky as Chinese wages started to go up, as people had concerns about too much dependence on a particular country.

隨著中國工資開始上漲，人們開始擔心對某個國家的過度依賴，這就變得很有風險。

And so the insurance strategy was to open a factory in another country, say, for example, Vietnam or Thailand or Bangladesh or India.

是以，保險策略是在另一個國家開設工廠，例如越南、泰國、孟加拉國或印度。

One of the reasons that Vietnam has been on the come up, so to speak, has been because China has been so successful in its development model that is pricing itself out of things like making T-shirts or sewing shoes and that kind of thing.

可以說，越南崛起的原因之一，是中國的發展模式非常成功，將自己從製作 T 恤或縫製鞋子之類的事情中剝離出來。

They've moved on into kind of higher value added products.

他們已經開始生產附加值更高的產品。

China has been accused of using Vietnam to pass through some exports into the U.S.

中國被指控利用越南向美國轉運部分出口商品。

This tactic could help China avoid Trump's 2018 tariffs.

這一策略可以幫助中國避開特朗普 2018 年的關稅。

You saw a massive increase happening as a result of those 2018 tariffs.

你們看到，2018 年的關稅導致了大規模增長。

So one type of activity was what we like to call value added production.

是以，有一種活動我們稱之為增值生產。

So they were importing raw materials and intermediate products from China into a country like Vietnam or Thailand and then doing the production in Vietnam and exporting.

是以，他們從中國向越南或泰國等國進口原材料和中間產品，然後在越南進行生產和出口。

That was the vast majority of the activity, about 84 percent of the activity.

這是絕大多數活動，約佔活動的 84%。

But there's a smaller part, maybe 16 percent, depending on how you measure it, which is rerouting, essentially relabeling products.

但還有一小部分，也許是 16%，這取決於你如何衡量，那就是改道，基本上是重新給產品貼標籤。

So saying this is a product that was originally made in China, no new value added activity took place in Vietnam, and then it was exported as a Vietnamese product.

所以說，這是一種最初在中國製造的產品，在越南沒有進行新的增值活動，然後作為越南產品出口。

Economists say the higher tariff rates under discussion reflect trade deficits between the U.S. and other nations.

經濟學家表示，討論中的較高關稅率反映了美國與其他國家之間的貿易逆差。

The relationship between the United States and Vietnam, the trade deficit is relatively sizable.

美國和越南之間的關係，貿易逆差相對可觀。

It has grown in the last year to be about $123.5 billion.

在過去的一年裡，這一數字增長到了約 1 235 億美元。

The U.S. under Trump says that many countries are using unfair trade tactics like currency manipulation to expand their trade surpluses.

特朗普上司下的美國表示，許多國家正在使用貨幣操縱等不公平貿易手段來擴大貿易順差。

One of the things that the Vietnamese are considering is essentially revaluing their currency in response to the tariffs, because if the tariffs are going to raise prices of Vietnamese producers so much that a decline in the currency is maybe the only option they have to compensate unless they can reach a settlement with the U.S. government.

越南人正在考慮的其中一件事，基本上是重估本國貨幣以應對關稅，因為如果關稅將大幅提高越南生產商的價格，那麼除非他們能與美國政府達成和解，否則貨幣貶值可能是他們唯一的補償選擇。

However, it's already low in 2024 already.

然而，2024 年的數據已經很低了。

In April, a delegation from Vietnam reached out to the White House to strike a deal.

4 月，越南代表團向白宮提出達成協議。

We've already seen Vietnamese party general secretary contact the U.S. administration offering to potentially go down to zero tariffs on U.S. products entering Vietnam.

我們已經看到越南共產黨總書記與美國政府聯繫，提出有可能將美國產品進入越南的關稅降至零。

The primary driver of this bilateral trade deficit that the United States has with Vietnam is not driven by tariffs or protectionism on Vietnam's part.

造成美國與越南雙邊貿易逆差的主要原因並不是越南的關稅或保護主義。

It's driven by the fact that there's just relatively much more demand in the United States for Vietnamese products than there is demand in Vietnam for U.S. products.

這是因為美國對越南產品的需求比越南對美國產品的需求大得多。

As tariff rates are negotiated, countries like Vietnam are bracing for impact.

隨著關稅稅率的談判，越南等國家正準備應對沖擊。

People have called it like an unforced error or a self-inflicted wound, but it's worse than that because it's essentially like a suicide pact that's taking out large other countries along with the U.S. economy.

人們稱其為 "非被迫的錯誤 "或 "自殘"，但這比 "自殘 "更糟糕，因為它本質上就像一個自殺性協議，正在連同美國經濟一起拖垮其他大國。

The White House did not respond to CNBC's request to participate in this story.

白宮沒有迴應 CNBC 參與報道的請求。

In the year 2000, the U.S. and Vietnam signed a trade agreement which took tariff rates down from around 40 percent to 3 percent.

2000 年，美國和越南簽署了一項貿易協定，將關稅稅率從 40% 左右降至 3%。

Today, exports to the United States from Vietnam account for 30 percent of Vietnam's gross domestic product.

如今，越南對美國的出口佔越南國內生產總值的 30%。

The outlook for the people of Vietnam, who if we know anything about history in the last 50 years, have really been through the ringer, much of it at the hands of the United States.

越南人民的前景，如果我們對過去 50 年的歷史有所瞭解的話，他們確實經歷了很多磨難，其中很多磨難都是美國一手造成的。

Once you graduate into that lower middle income status and your manufacturing sector is taking off, this is a period in which that economic growth is translating into real household gains, so that the dirt floor becomes a cement or tile floor.

一旦進入中低收入階段，製造業開始起飛，這一時期的經濟增長就會轉化為家庭的實際收入，從而使泥土地面變成水泥或瓷磚地面。

The electricity is on 24 hours a day as opposed to maybe 8 or 12.

每天 24 小時供電，而不是 8 或 12 小時。

That is a really heartbreaking point in economic development for the people of Vietnam to be looking at potentially taking a big step back from their first real taste of the kind of affluence that we in the West, in the United States in particular, often take for granted.

對於越南人民來說，這是經濟發展中一個非常令人痛心的時刻，因為他們有可能從第一次真正嚐到富裕生活的滋味中退後一大步，而我們西方人，尤其是美國人，常常認為這種富裕生活是理所當然的。

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