Name: 股市完蛋了特朗普 "有計劃 "的崩盤解析 (It’s Over for the Stock Market: Trump’s ‘Planned’ Crash Explained)
Uploaded: 2025-03-16T14:51:34.000Z
Duration: 14 min 5 s

The stock market is over, and you should get out before Trump triggers a full-blown recession.

股市已經完了，你應該在特朗普引發全面衰退之前出局。

That's what the mainstream media want you to think.

Headlines are screaming disaster, social media is in a frenzy, and everyone is asking the same question, should I sell now before it gets worse?

頭條新聞大肆宣揚災難，社交媒體一片譁然，每個人都在問同一個問題：我是否應該在情況變得更糟之前賣掉房子？

But there's more to this than meets the eye.

If you've followed me for a while, you know I'm a serious investor who's obsessed with the stock market.

如果你關注過我一段時間，你就會知道我是一個對股市非常痴迷的嚴肅投資者。

And since so many of you have started investing because of my videos, I feel a responsibility to give you my honest take on the situation.

既然你們這麼多人因為我的視頻而開始投資，我覺得有責任向你們坦誠我的看法。

So before you panic, let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture together.

所以，在你驚慌失措之前，讓我們退一步，一起從大局出發。

Every market crash has a cause, and this one isn't random.

每一次市場崩潰都有其原因，而這一次並非偶然。

There are three main triggers behind it, and all of them tie back to one man, Donald Trump.

這背後有三大誘因，而所有誘因都與一個人有關，那就是唐納德-特朗普。

Now before anyone jumps to conclusions, this isn't about politics.

在任何人妄下結論之前，這與政治無關。

I'm not here to take sides, and as a British investor looking in, my only concern is how this impacts investors like you and me.

我不是來偏袒任何一方的，作為一個旁觀的英國投資者，我唯一關心的是這對你我這樣的投資者有什麼影響。

So let's break down the three biggest triggers behind this crash, why they matter, and what you can do to benefit from all this mayhem.

是以，讓我們來分析一下這次暴跌背後的三大誘因、它們為何如此重要，以及如何才能從這些混亂中獲益。

Trump has always pitched himself as the ultimate deal maker.

特朗普一直以終極交易者自居。

He's the guy who fights for American jobs and plays hardball with other countries.

他為美國的就業而戰，與其他國家打硬仗。

But the trade wars he's fighting could increase your weekly shopping bill and cause a recession.

但他所打的貿易戰可能會增加您每週的購物支出，並導致經濟衰退。

The last time the U.S. tried this, it helped trigger the Great Depression, wiping out jobs and wrecking the economy.

美國上一次嘗試這樣做時，引發了大蕭條，摧毀了就業崗位，破壞了經濟。

Stocks are already crashing, prices are rising, and if this spirals, it won't just hurt Wall Street, it'll hit you where it matters most, your bank account.

股票已經崩盤，物價正在上漲，如果這種螺旋式上升的趨勢繼續下去，傷害的將不僅僅是華爾街，還有你最重要的地方，你的銀行賬戶。

Let me take you back to 1930, when I was just a boy.

讓我帶你回到 1930 年，那時我還是個孩子。

The U.S. government decided to slap massive taxes called tariffs on imported goods to protect American businesses from foreign competition.

美國政府決定對進口商品徵收鉅額稅收，即關稅，以保護美國企業免受外國競爭的影響。

It was called the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, and it turned out to be one of the worst economic mistakes in history.

該法案被稱為《斯穆特-霍利關稅法》，結果成為歷史上最嚴重的經濟錯誤之一。

American companies wouldn't have to compete with cheap imports, and more products would be made in the USA.

美國公司將不必與廉價的進口產品競爭，更多的產品將在美國製造。

Nations that used to trade with the U.S. started raising their own tariffs, making it harder for American businesses to sell products overseas.

曾經與美國有貿易往來的國家開始提高關稅，使美國企業更難向海外銷售產品。

Trade slowed to an absolute crawl, businesses collapsed, and millions lost their jobs.

貿易絕對放緩，企業倒閉，數百萬人失業。

Instead of fixing the economy, it helped turn a regular recession into the Great Depression, one of the worst financial crises ever.

它非但沒有解決經濟問題，反而助長了正常的經濟衰退，使其演變成有史以來最嚴重的金融危機之一--大蕭條。

Fast forward nearly a century, and Trump has brought back tariffs in a big way.

快進近一個世紀後，特朗普又大張旗鼓地恢復了關稅。

In February 2025, Trump announced a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, and a 25% tariff on other Canadian goods.

2025 年 2 月，特朗普宣佈對加拿大進口能源徵收 10%的關稅，對加拿大其他商品徵收 25%的關稅。

In retaliation, Canada imposed a 25% tariff on American imports.

作為報復，加拿大對美國進口商品徵收 25% 的關稅。

Then in March, Ontario implemented a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S., affecting states like New York, Michigan, and Minnesota.

隨後在 3 月份，安大略省對出口到美國的電力征收 25% 的附加費，影響到紐約、密歇根和明尼蘇達等州。

However, in my opinion, this was more of a symbolic move that wouldn't have seriously damaged the U.S. economy.

不過，在我看來，這只是一個象徵性的舉動，不會對美國經濟造成嚴重損害。

However, Trump didn't hold back, and instead of just brushing it off, he fired back by increasing tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 50%.

然而，特朗普並沒有忍氣吞聲，他不僅沒有拂袖而去，反而將對加拿大鋼鋁徵收的關稅提高到了 50%。

Unlike Canada's move, this wasn't just for show, it hit Canada's manufacturing industry hard while also driving up steel prices for American businesses that rely on imports.

與加拿大的舉動不同，美國此舉並非作秀，它在重創加拿大製造業的同時，也推高了依賴進口的美國企業的鋼材價格。

Well this is where the real problem starts.

Tariffs sound good on paper, as they're meant to punish foreign businesses while encouraging more stuff to be made in America.

關稅在紙面上聽起來不錯，因為它們的目的是懲罰外國企業，同時鼓勵更多的東西在美國製造。

But in reality, they end up hurting regular people more than anyone else.

但實際上，它們最終傷害的是普通人，而不是其他人。

As a business owner who manufactures products and imports from China myself, I know that when businesses are forced to pay more for materials, they don't just absorb the cost, they pass it on to their customers.

作為一名生產產品並從中國進口產品的企業主，我知道，當企業被迫為材料支付更多費用時，他們不僅會消化成本，還會將其轉嫁給客戶。

That means higher prices on cars, appliances, and electronics.

這意味著汽車、電器和電子產品的價格上漲。

In addition to this, food becomes more expensive because supply chains get disrupted, meaning that everyday essentials cost more, stretching household budgets even further.

除此以外，由於供應鏈中斷，食品變得更加昂貴，這意味著日常必需品的價格更高，使家庭預算更加捉襟見肘。

On top of that, other countries aren't just sitting around while Trump raises tariffs, they are forming new alliances to trade without the US.

除此之外，其他國家也不會坐視特朗普提高關稅，它們正在結成新的聯盟，以便在沒有美國的情況下開展貿易。

China is leading the charge with the BRICS alliance, partnering with Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa to reduce dependence on American trade.

中國正在上司金磚國家聯盟，與巴西、俄羅斯、印度和南非合作，減少對美國貿易的依賴。

So the more the US isolates itself, the more other countries look elsewhere for business.

是以，美國越是孤立自己，其他國家就越要到其他地方尋找商機。

So what's my opinion on all of this as an experienced investor?

那麼，作為一名經驗豐富的投資者，我對這一切有什麼看法呢？

Well, if Trump goes all in on this trade war, history suggests it will do more harm than good.

那麼，如果特朗普在這場貿易戰中一意孤行，歷史表明這將弊大於利。

While some industries might get a short-term boost, the long-term damage, such as higher prices, weaker global ties, and a slowing US economy could far outweigh any benefits.

雖然一些行業可能會得到短期刺激，但長期損害，如價格上漲、全球聯繫減弱和美國經濟放緩，可能會遠遠超過任何好處。

But if I'm being completely honest, I don't think Trump actually wants high tariffs.

但如果我完全說實話，我不認為特朗普真的想要高關稅。

I know that sounds crazy, but hear me out.

我知道這聽起來很瘋狂，但請聽我說完。

Trump is, at his core, a businessman and a dealmaker, just like me.

特朗普的核心是商人和交易商，就像我一樣。

That's why I believe he's using tariffs as a negotiation tactic, not as an end goal.

這就是為什麼我認為他把關稅作為一種談判策略，而不是最終目標。

So if that's true, what does he actually want?

如果這是真的，他到底想要什麼？

Well, I think he's after free global trade, but on terms that favour the US, and if he pulls that off, it could pay off big time.

我認為，他追求的是全球自由貿易，但條件是有利於美國，如果他能做到這一點，就能獲得巨大回報。

However, the problem is, his approach is creating massive uncertainty.

但問題是，他的做法正在製造巨大的不確定性。

The constant backtracking, new tariffs, and mixed signals are spooking the stock market because investors hate unpredictability.

不斷的出爾反爾、新的關稅和混雜的信號正在擾亂股市，因為投資者討厭不可預測性。

If this drags on too long, it could shake confidence so much that it pushes the economy towards recession, something even Trump's own administration has admitted they are willing to risk.

如果這種情況拖得太久，可能會嚴重動搖信心，從而將經濟推向衰退，就連特朗普自己的政府也承認，他們願意冒這種風險。

Right now, the market isn't just reacting to tariffs, it's reacting to uncertainty about what comes next, and in investing, uncertainty is one of the biggest killers of confidence.

現在，市場不僅對關稅做出反應，還對接下來的不確定性做出反應，而在投資中，不確定性是信心的最大殺手之一。

導火索之二是特朗普對北約的立場。

Trump has openly questioned the role of NATO, the military alliance that protects Western countries.

特朗普公開質疑保護西方國家的軍事聯盟北約的作用。

He's suggested that the US shouldn't keep defending allies unless they start paying more for their own protection.

他建議，美國不應該繼續保衛盟國，除非盟國開始為保護自己支付更多費用。

While that might sound like a fair demand, if the US steps back from its NATO commitments, it could create a power vacuum that countries like Russia and China might exploit.

雖然這聽起來像是一個公平的要求，但如果美國從北約的承諾中後退，就會造成權力真空，而俄羅斯和中國等國家可能會利用這一真空。

The second investors sense that world stability is at risk, they panic.

投資者一感覺到世界穩定受到威脅，就會驚慌失措。

If NATO weakens, it could encourage Russia to push further into Europe, or even lead to new conflicts as countries try to adjust to a world without the USA acting as the global police force.

如果北約衰弱，可能會鼓勵俄羅斯進一步向歐洲推進，甚至導致新的衝突，因為各國都在努力適應一個沒有美國作為全球警察力量的世界。

More conflicts mean higher military spending, unpredictable trade relationships, and spikes in energy prices, all of which can rattle the stock market.

更多的衝突意味著更高的軍費開支、不可預知的貿易關係和能源價格的飆升，所有這些都會對股市造成衝擊。

觸發器三是特朗普的祕密計劃。

There's been a theory circulating that Trump may be crashing the stock market on purpose.

坊間流傳著一種說法，認為特朗普可能是故意讓股市崩潰的。

I know that sounds crazy, but there is some evidence for it.

我知道這聽起來很瘋狂，但還是有一些證據的。

Trump has never been a fan of high interest rates.

In fact, he's called them ridiculous, and has openly attacked the Federal Reserve for keeping them high.

事實上，他說這些數字很荒謬，並公開抨擊美聯儲將數字維持在高位。

The Fed is technically independent, meaning Trump can't just tell them to cut interest rates, but their decisions are based on economic conditions.

美聯儲在技術上是獨立的，這意味著特朗普不能直接告訴他們降息，但他們的決定是基於經濟狀況的。

If the stock market crashes and a recession seems inevitable, the Fed has no choice but to step in and slash interest rates to prevent a total meltdown.

如果股市崩潰，經濟衰退似乎不可避免，美聯儲別無選擇，只能介入並降低利率，以防止全面崩潰。

但為什麼特朗普希望降低利率呢？

Well, because high interest rates slow down the economy.

Businesses borrow less, stocks struggle, people stop spending as much, and for Trump, who loves growth and hates anything that makes America look weak, they're a problem.

企業借貸減少，股市掙扎，人們不再大量消費，對於喜歡增長、討厭任何讓美國看起來軟弱的東西的特朗普來說，這些都是問題。

It's not just about making the stock market go up, it's way bigger than that.

這不僅僅是為了讓股市上漲，它的意義遠不止於此。

The US government is drowning in $36.5 trillion of debt, and when interest rates are high, the cost of that debt goes through the roof.

美國政府正被 36.5 萬億美元的債務所淹沒，而當利率高企時，債務成本就會急劇上升。

Think of it like a massive credit card bill.

把它想象成一張鉅額信用卡賬單。

Imagine you owe $36,500, and your credit card company charges 10% interest per year.

想象一下，你欠款 36,500 美元，而你的信用卡公司每年收取 10%的利息。

That means, before you even start paying down the actual debt, you're being charged $3,650 every single year, just in interest.

這意味著，在你開始償還實際債務之前，僅利息一項每年就要向你收取 3,650 美元。

Now imagine the credit card company suddenly slashes the interest rate to 3%.

現在想象一下，信用卡公司突然將利率降至 3%。

Instead of paying $3,650 per year, your interest drops to just $1,095 annually.

每年的利息從 3,650 美元下降到 1,095 美元。

That's a saving of $2,555 every single year.

Now you can put this money towards actually paying off your debt instead of just keeping up with your interest payments.

現在，您可以將這筆錢用於實際償還債務，而不僅僅是支付利息。

Well, that's exactly what Trump might be doing, but on a $36.5 trillion scale.

嗯，這正是特朗普可能要做的，但規模是 36.5 萬億美元。

If the Fed lowers interest rates, the government can refinance its debt at a cheaper rate, saving billions, if not trillions, in interest payments.

如果美聯儲降低利率，政府就能以更低的利率對債務進行再融資，從而節省數十億甚至數萬億的利息支出。

This wouldn't be the first time something like this has happened.

這樣的事情已經不是第一次發生了。

If Trump can create that opportunity on purpose, it could go down as one of the smartest economic power moves in history.

如果特朗普能有目的地創造出這樣的機會，那麼它將成為歷史上最明智的經濟實力舉措之一。

If this theory is true, we're not looking at a long-term economic collapse, we're looking at a temporary shake-up before a massive rebound.

如果這一理論屬實，我們看到的就不是長期的經濟崩潰，而是大規模反彈前的暫時動盪。

So you're probably wondering, how can you benefit from this crash?

所以，你可能想知道，如何才能從這次碰撞中獲益？

Well, you need to understand that stock market crashes aren't rare disasters, they're a normal part of investing.

那麼，你需要明白，股市崩盤並不是罕見的災難，而是投資的正常現象。

Every few years, the stock market takes a hit, people panic and headlines scream, the end is near.

每隔幾年，股市就會遭受重創，人們驚慌失措，頭條新聞也會大喊 "末日來臨"。

但歷史告訴我們一個不同的故事。

Every crash of the US market has been followed by a recovery.

美國市場每次暴跌之後都會出現復甦。

The people who panic and sell usually lose money, while the ones who stay calm and invest strategically often come out on top.

驚慌失措並拋售的人通常會損失錢財，而保持冷靜並進行戰略性投資的人往往會獲勝。

Instead of freaking out, this is the time to prepare, make smart moves and hopefully set yourself up for massive gains when the market bounces back.

與其驚慌失措，不如做好準備，採取明智的行動，希望在市場反彈時為自己帶來巨大收益。

Look, I'm not a financial advisor, however, I have made millions during stock market crashes, so here are my thoughts on what you can do to prepare.

聽著，我不是財務顧問，不過，我在股市崩盤時賺了幾百萬，所以，以下是我關於如何做好準備的想法。

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股市完蛋了特朗普 "有計劃 "的崩盤解析 (It’s Over for the Stock Market: Trump’s ‘Planned’ Crash Explained)

massive

depression

trigger

panic