Name: 我們是否已達到計算機能力的極限？- 薩揚-塞尼和喬治-扎伊丹 (Have we reached the limit of computer power? - Sajan Saini and George Zaidan)
Uploaded: 2025-01-28T10:26:18.000Z
Duration: 5 min 14 s

關係子句

In the Netherlands, there's an ambitious company that builds one of the most advanced and expensive tools in the world.

在荷蘭，有一家雄心勃勃的公司正在製造世界上最先進、最昂貴的工具之一。

A single unit costs hundreds of millions of dollars.

一臺設備的成本高達數億美元。

And when companies buy one, they also need 250 engineers to install the 165-ton device in a process that typically takes half a year.

公司購買一臺設備後，還需要 250 名工程師安裝這臺重達 165 噸的設備，安裝過程通常需要半年時間。

But despite this steep cost in time and money, many microchip makers desperately want one of these machines.

但是，儘管時間和金錢成本高昂，許多微芯片製造商仍迫切希望擁有一臺這樣的機器。

The answer has to do with something called Moore's Law.

First coined by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, this law states that every one to two years, the number of transistors that can fit on a given size computer chip will double.

這一定律最早由英特爾聯合創始人戈登-摩爾（Gordon Moore）提出，指出每隔一到兩年，一定尺寸的計算機芯片上可容納的半導體數量就會增加一倍。

And by extension, the rough number of calculations that chip can do per second will also double.

由此推斷，芯片每秒可完成的粗略計算量也將增加一倍。

Now this law isn't a physical law like gravity.

現在，這條定律並不是像萬有引力那樣的物理定律。

It's just a trend Moore observed during the early 1960s.

這只是摩爾在 20 世紀 60 年代初觀察到的一種趨勢。

But chip makers turned that trend into a goal.

但芯片製造商將這一趨勢變成了目標。

And in turn, consumers learned to expect computing progress to continue at this exponentially fast pace.

反過來，消費者也學會了期待計算技術以這種指數級的速度不斷進步。

And the amazing thing is, for six decades, it pretty much has.

令人驚歎的是，六十年來，它幾乎一直如此。

Thanks to Moore's Law, chips have gotten smaller, faster, more efficient, and cheaper.

得益於摩爾定律，芯片變得更小、更快、更高效、更便宜。

But today, there are four key problems that trip up this trend, potentially ending Moore's Law and fundamentally changing how we make progress in computing.

但如今，有四個關鍵問題阻礙了這一趨勢，有可能終結摩爾定律，並從根本上改變我們在計算領域取得進步的方式。

Transistors are basically on-off switches, and these building blocks of digital computing have been shrinking since the 1960s.

半導體基本上就是開關，自 20 世紀 60 年代以來，這些數字計算的構件一直在不斷縮小。

But recently, they've gotten so small, quantum physics has begun to interfere with their functions.

但最近，它們變得如此之小，量子物理學已經開始干擾它們的功能。

When a transistor switch or gate is less than 20 nanometers, electrons will tunnel along it continuously, turning a crisp on-off switch into a hazy dimmer.

當半導體開關或柵極的尺寸小於 20 納米時，電子就會沿著開關或柵極不斷隧穿，從而將清晰的開關變為朦朧的調光器。

As chip makers make components smaller and more complex, the copper lines that run between them need to be thinner and longer.

隨著芯片製造商將元件做得更小、更復雜，它們之間的銅線需要更細、更長。

This increases their electrical resistance and generates high heat that impairs chip performance and can't be easily dissipated.

這增加了它們的電阻，併產生高熱量，從而影響芯片性能，而且不容易散熱。

Today's chips can already run hot enough to cook an egg, and temperatures are only predicted to increase without new innovations.

如今的芯片溫度已經可以煮熟雞蛋，如果沒有新的創新，預計溫度只會越來越高。

While both these issues represent limits in the fundamental physics of chipmaking, researchers haven't stopped trying to solve them.

雖然這兩個問題代表了芯片製造基本物理學的侷限性，但研究人員並沒有停止解決這些問題的努力。

Unfortunately, their solutions often exacerbate the third major problem, chipmaking's environmental impact.

不幸的是，他們的解決方案往往加劇了第三個主要問題，即芯片製造對環境的影響。

For example, swapping copper lines for ruthenium could help pack transistors more tightly and keep chips smaller.

例如，將銅線換成釕線有助於更緊密地封裝半導體，使芯片更小。

But that metal is far scarcer than copper and would require new mining infrastructure.

但這種金屬遠比銅稀缺，而且需要新的採礦基礎設施。

Similarly, the technology currently used to make today's smallest transistors requires huge amounts of energy and chemicals called perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl, substances which can take thousands of years to break down in the environment.

同樣，目前用於製造當今最小半導體的技術需要大量能源和名為全氟烷基和多氟烷基的化學物質，這些物質需要數千年才能在環境中分解。

Managing these first three problems contributes to the final issue, cost.

處理好前三個問題，就能解決最後一個問題，即成本問題。

To keep achieving Moore's Law, chipmakers have to make individual chip components smaller.

為了繼續實現摩爾定律，芯片製造商必須將單個芯片元件做得更小。

And this is where that costly $400 million machine comes in.

這就是那臺耗資 4 億美元的機器的作用所在。

This marvel of chipmaking science shoots a stream of tin droplets into a vacuum chamber before blasting them with a high-energy laser that vaporizes the tin to create plasma.

這一芯片製造科學奇蹟先將錫液滴射入真空室，然後用高能脈衝光對其進行爆破，使錫蒸發產生等離子體。

In turn, the plasma emits a 13.5 nanometer wavelength of ultraviolet light that can be used to produce incredibly small transistors.

反過來，等離子體會發出波長為 13.5 納米的紫外線，這種紫外線可用於生產超小型半導體。

This remarkable feat of engineering has helped chipmakers keep up with Moore's Law.

這一卓越的工程技術幫助芯片製造商跟上了摩爾定律的步伐。

But as chips keep getting denser, intricate manufacturing plants keep getting more expensive.

但是，隨著芯片密度越來越高，複雜的製造工廠也越來越昂貴。

This trend has been so consistent, it's actually earned the nickname, Moore's Second Law.

這一趨勢一直如此持續，是以被稱為 "摩爾第二定律"。

Obviously, all these trajectories are unsustainable.

顯然，所有這些軌跡都是不可持續的。

Manufacturing plants can't keep increasing in price, our ecosystems can't endure endless mining and pollution, and the laws of physics are unlikely to change any time soon.

製造工廠的價格不可能持續上漲，我們的生態系統不可能忍受無休止的開採和汙染，物理定律也不可能在短期內改變。

Fortunately, Moore's Law is flexible, and there's no reason we can't introduce new goals to keep making computing progress responsibly.

幸運的是，摩爾定律是靈活的，我們沒有理由不引入新的目標，以負責任的方式不斷推動計算技術的進步。

Perhaps we could introduce a new sustainability law.

也許我們可以出臺一部新的可持續發展法。

Smaller transistors already use less material and produce less e-waste, and advancements in electronic-photonic integration are allowing chips to use less energy and generate less heat.

更小的半導體使用的材料更少，產生的電子垃圾也更少，電子-光子集成技術的進步使芯片使用的能源更少，產生的熱量更低。

So perhaps chips should be made twice as sustainable every several years.

是以，也許應該每隔幾年就把芯片的可持續發展能力提高一倍。

Whatever the answer is, we make the laws, so the future is up to us.

不管答案是什麼，法律是我們制定的，所以未來取決於我們。

Another near-invisible technology that powers our lives and makes the internet possible is fibre optics.

光纖是另一種近乎隱形的技術，它為我們的生活提供動力，並使互聯網成為可能。

So what exactly is it, and how does it work?

那麼，它到底是什麼，又是如何工作的呢？

 Get to know more about this vital technology with this video.

通過本視頻進一步瞭解這項重要技術。