The laptop classes

筆記本電腦班

living in la la land, it's messed up to assume that this

生活在 la la land 中，認為這

they have to go to work. But you don't. It's not just a

他們必須去上班。但你不用。這不僅僅是

productivity thing. I think it's morally wrong. Listen,

生產力問題。我認為這在道德上是錯誤的。聽著

it doesn't work for young kids. It doesn't work for spontaneity,

對年幼的孩子不起作用。它不適合自發性、

it doesn't really work for management.

這對管理並不奏效。

And this is how the corporate world felt about remote work in

這就是企業界對遠程工作的看法。

2020, during the height of COVID-19.

2020 年，COVID-19 高峰期。

The biggest advantages I think, are access to large pools of

我認為，最大的優勢是可以獲得大量的

talent, who don't live around the big cities and aren't

人才，他們不住在大城市周圍，也不

willing to move there. Since

願意搬到那裡去。由於

we've all been forced into being remote now for nine months, I

九個月來，我們都被迫遠離家鄉，我

think we've realized that if you have somebody in a particular

我們已經意識到，如果有人在某一特定領域

location who's willing to work the hours to be able to

願意工作的地點，以便能夠

collaborate, you can do it very effectively. So it's changed

合作，你可以做得非常有效。是以，它改變了

that we thought about hiring. Let's

我們曾考慮過聘用他們。讓我們

pause here, notice something in fewer than three years,

暫停一下，注意不到三年的時間、

corporate leaders have reversed their approach to remote work.

企業領導者對遠程工作的態度發生了逆轉。

And it seems like this tactic has been working, the latest

而這一策略似乎已經奏效，最新的

data from the Census Bureau found that fewer than 26% of US

人口普查局的數據發現，不到 26%的美國人

households still have someone working from home. That's down

家庭仍有人在家工作。下降了

from 37% in early 2021. So

從 2021 年初的 37%。是以

the reason we're having this entire conversation about remote

我們之所以要討論遠程問題

work dying is first of all, because we kept thinking that

首先，因為我們一直認為

we're going to bounce back to quote unquote, normal when the

我們將反彈到正常狀態。

pandemic started, and we had people working from home. The

大流行病開始時，我們有人在家工作。我們的

idea was, this is very temporary, and we were all going

我們的想法是，這只是暫時的，我們都要

to come back. So

回來。所以

really what's changed the discussion about remote work is

真正改變遠程工作討論的是

the slowdown in the labor market. There are a lot of

勞動力市場放緩。有很多

employers out there who had suspicions about remote work

對遠程工作心存疑慮的僱主們

from the start. And you can see that kind of by the timing of

從一開始。你可以從以下時間點看出這一點

when people actually went to being remote during the start of

當人們在《世界人權宣言》頒佈之初，真正去做一個遙遠的人時

the pandemic. So the concerns that employers had about remote

大流行病。是以，僱主對遠程

work were present all during the Great reshuffle. But they didn't

在大洗牌期間，他們一直都在工作。但他們沒有

really have much of a choice. But with the emergency orders

真的別無選擇。但有了緊急命令

expiring for the pandemic this year. Now, they can actually

今年的大流行期滿。現在，他們實際上可以

start to bring people back and address some of those concerns

開始讓人們回來，並解決其中的一些問題

that they might have about productivity.

他們對生產率可能存在的疑問。

remote work was brought upon us basically by the pandemic,

遠程工作基本上是大流行病給我們帶來的、

before the pandemic remote work was pretty rare. So about 5% of

在大流行之前，遠程工作非常罕見。是以，大約 5%的

days, were forced to work from home, you know, all managers and

他們被迫在家工作，你知道，所有管理人員和

professionals were basically fully remote from March of 2020.

從 2020 年 3 月起，專業人員基本上都是遠程管理。

And then it turns out, it's worked really well,

結果發現，效果非常好、

such as no commute work in in your sweatpants doing your

例如，不需要穿著運動褲上下班，也不需要穿著運動褲做自己的

laundry between zoom calls, but also just the savings in terms

縮放通話之間的洗衣時間，但在以下方面也能節省成本

of time in terms of money in terms of your commute in terms

從時間、金錢、通勤的角度來看

of being able to spend more time with your children or pick them

能有更多時間陪伴孩子或接他們回家

up from school, people quickly

人們很快

found ways to be productive, to continue communications together

找到富有成效的方法，繼續共同交流

and to keep collaborating together. And whatever tools

並保持合作。無論使用什麼工具

they could invest in to support that work and that teamwork.

他們可以投資支持這項工作和團隊合作。

As the world slowly started to open up, corporate America began

隨著世界慢慢開始開放，美國企業開始

to change its tune on remote work, so much so that some firms

對遠程工作的態度有所改變，以至於一些公司

now even threatened to fire their employees, if they don't

現在甚至威脅要解僱他們的員工，如果他們不

show up at work,

來上班、

zoom the company this is now throwing in the towel on fully

放大現在完全放棄的公司。

remote work,

遠程工作、

even zoom, the video conferencing company that helps

甚至 zoom，這家視頻會議公司幫助

make the remote work boom happened in the first place, is

使遠程工作熱潮得以興起的原因在於

also taking a hard line on return to office. It's an

也對復職採取強硬立場。這是一個

abrupt shift from last year, when I suggested a majority of

與去年相比，我的建議發生了突變。

its employees would work a hybrid schedule of just 2%

其員工的混合工作時間僅為 2%.

working in person full time.

全職親自工作。

So some of the pushback remote work is driven by concerns about

是以，對遠程工作的一些反對意見是出於對以下方面的擔憂

productivity. There have been some experimental studies that

生產力一些實驗研究表明

show that there's some productivity impact potentially

顯示出對生產率的潛在影響

from remote work. But those studies are also experiments,

遠程工作帶來的好處。但這些研究也是實驗、

right? It's unclear how they applied to the broader labor

對不對？目前還不清楚它們如何適用於更廣泛的勞動領域。

force,

力、

the United States does have a productivity problem. Before the

美國確實存在生產力問題。在

second quarter of this year, the country had experienced five

今年第二季度，該國經歷了五次經濟危機。

consecutive quarters of year over year declines in worker

工人人數連續幾個季度同比下降

productivity. In fact, a major study that Professor Nicholas

生產力。事實上，尼古拉斯教授的一項重要研究就表明了這一點。

Bloom co authored found that fully remote work led to

布盧姆與他人合作發現，完全遠程工作會導致

productivity declines of about 10 to 20%, when compared to

生產率下降約 10%至 20%。

fully in person work. Now, the

完全親自工作。現在

other important thing in this study is we pointed out, look

這項研究的另一項重要內容是，我們指出，請看

what firms care about, ultimately, is profitability.

企業最終關心的是盈利能力。

And it turns out that if you have an employee that's remote,

事實證明，如果你有一名遠程員工、

you also save a lot of costs. So you're saving about 10% less

還能節省大量成本。是以，您可以節省大約 10%的費用

overhead because you don't have an office and then you could

開銷，因為你沒有辦公室，然後你可以

have these folks, maybe nationally or internationally

讓這些人，也許在國內或國際上

and maybe save another 20 30 40% remote workers they may be 5

也許還能再節省 20% 30% 40% 的遠程工人，他們可能是 5

10% less productive, but they are so much cheaper that is

生產率低 10%，但它們的價格卻便宜得多，以至於

profitable for firms to have many teams many employees remote

對公司來說，擁有許多團隊和許多遠程員工是有利可圖的

if you're coming with the stat to protect yourself to put the

如果你帶著保護自己的狀態來把

positive narrative for people to return to work. I like to think

為人們重返工作崗位提供積極的說明。我認為

what were the productivity like when people were all working

當人們都在工作時，生產力是怎樣的？

from home what you're not allowed to have any face to face

從家裡，你不能有任何面對面的

worker at all right? So now you're spinning it in your

工人，對嗎？所以，現在你在你的

favor. So I'd like to challenge that

贊成。是以，我想提出質疑

if the employee can perform their their duties and handle

員工是否能夠履行其職責並處理以下問題

their responsibilities. They should be encouraged to work

他們的責任。應鼓勵他們

from wherever makes them feel as excited about life as possible.

從任何能讓他們對生活感到興奮的地方出發。

I camped in Key West for three weeks. I was in North Dakota in

我在基韋斯特露營了三個星期。我在北達科他州的

February, I've been up and down the coast of California and I've

二月，我在加利福尼亞海岸上上下下，我已經

been to our national parks. For me. That's where I feel best

去過我們的國家公園。對我來說那是我感覺最好的地方

working. And that's where I've gotten my best work done. I

工作在那裡，我完成了最好的工作。I

believe we can work from anywhere.

相信我們可以在任何地方工作。

My name is Sujan Parajuli, I used to work for JPMorgan and

我叫蘇揚-帕拉朱利，曾在摩根大通和摩根士丹利工作。

Chase it was all remote. But once they changed their policy to

大通都是遙控的。但一旦他們將政策改為

come to office that was in Plano, Texas, but I live in

我的辦公室在得克薩斯州的普萊諾，但我住在

California. So I decided not to move out there because of my

加利福尼亞州。所以我決定不搬去那裡，因為我的

kids. So I have two school going kids. I have to manage work life

孩子們所以我有兩個上學的孩子。我必須處理好工作和生活的關係

balance as well. That was the reason why I quit my job. JP

平衡。這就是我辭職的原因。太平紳士

Morgan had given me 45 days of timeframe to find another job.

摩根給了我 45 天的時間另找工作。

And I applied for some other companies and found remote

我還應聘了其他一些公司，並找到了偏遠地區的工作。

job with Leidos, so I have been working remotely with Leidos

是以，我一直與 Leidos 公司進行遠程合作。

as a senior system analyst.

擔任高級系統分析師。

Parajuli is not alone in his choice to quit rather than

選擇辭職而不是辭職的人不只帕拉朱利一個。

return to an office setting. Finding a fully remote job,

回到辦公室環境。尋找完全遠程的工作、

though, is getting more challenging. New research from

不過，這也越來越具有挑戰性。來自

indeed found that job postings are declining faster in

事實上，我們發現，在下列地區，招聘職位減少的速度更快

metropolitan areas where many jobs can be done remotely. A

在大都市地區，許多工作都可以遠程完成。A

similar trend is playing out on LinkedIn as

在 LinkedIn 上也出現了類似的趨勢，因為

well. So on LinkedIn last year, we saw that about one in seven

好吧。是以，去年在 LinkedIn 上，我們看到每七個人中就有一個人

jobs were remote. And now that's down to about one in 11. But

工作都在偏遠地區。而現在，這一比例下降到了大約十一分之一。但是

over this time, we've also seen an inversion. Now we see about

在這段時間裡，我們還看到了反轉。現在我們看到大約

one in seven jobs being hybrid coming up from one and 11 last

每七份工作中就有一份是混合型的，比去年的 1 份和 11 份有所增加

year. So we're seeing more folks coming back into the office, but

年。是以，我們看到越來越多的人回到辦公室，但

they are not coming back into the office five days a week,

他們不會每週五天回到辦公室、

many employers are strong arming their team members, and that

許多僱主對其團隊成員採取強硬措施，而且

they would love remote work to die faster. As a result, I do

他們希望遠程工作死得更快。是以，我

see that remote work is quote unquote, slowly dying and

遠程工作正在慢慢消亡，而且

becoming more competitive to get.

競爭越來越激烈。

The pandemic induced shift to remote work has raised concerns

大流行病導致的遠程工作轉變引起了人們的關注

about the future of commercial real estate, especially office

關於商業地產（尤其是辦公樓）的未來

spaces. The latest report from McKinsey Global Institute

空間麥肯錫全球研究院的最新報告

suggests that remote work threatens to erase $800 billion

表明遠程工作有可能導致 8000 億美元的損失

from the value of Office real estate in nine major cities

從九個主要城市的寫字樓房地產價值來看

around the world. Other experts say the empty offices created by

其他專家則認為，這些措施造成了辦公室的空置。另一些專家則認為，由於

remote work in various cities are also leading to what's been

在不同城市的遠程工作也導致了被稱為

called the, quote, urban doom loop.

這就是所謂的 "城市末日循環"。

The problem does start with the Office demand right then we've

問題確實是從辦公室的需求開始的。

seen with the advent of remote work and hybrid work and

隨著遠程工作和混合工作的出現，以及

dramatic reduction in office demand over these past two

在過去的兩年裡，對辦公樓的需求急劇下降

years, that has led to right to rising vacancy rates and in

多年來，這種情況導致空置率不斷上升，並在

fact, all time high vacancy rates in the office market right

事實上，目前辦公樓市場的空置率已達到歷史最高水準。

now. And that does put pressure downward pressure on the

現在。這確實會對

valuations of these offices, you mentioned that they're down, you

你提到這些辦事處的估值有所下降，你

know, probably 20 or 30%. Already, they're likely to fall

知道，可能是 20%或 30%。他們已經有可能下降

by more. And that causes downward pressure on property

更多。這對房地產造成了下行壓力

tax revenues, because for a lot of cities, office tax revenues

稅收收入，因為對許多城市來說，辦公樓的稅收收入

is a big chunk of their tax revenues, often as much as 50%.

是其稅收的一大部分，通常高達 50%。

Some of that is is coming from office, maybe 20%. So maybe 10%

其中一部分來自辦公室，可能佔 20%。所以可能是 10%。

of overall tax revenues for cities comes from office, if

城市總體稅收收入的一部分來自辦公室，如果

those offices lose about half of their value, tax revenues fall

這些辦事處的價值減少一半左右，稅收減少

and that creates a huge hole in the budget.

這給預算造成了巨大的缺口。

So like everything, there are going to be winners and losers

是以，就像任何事情一樣，有贏家也有輸家

as we transition to a world where we have remote work as a

當我們過渡到一個以遠程工作為主流的世界時

permanent feature. One of the potential losers is commercial

永久特徵。潛在的輸家之一是商業

real estate, in part because offices aren't needed as much or

部分原因是人們對辦公室的需求沒有那麼大，或

they're not needed at all. So commercial real estate may be a

根本不需要。是以，商業地產可能是一個

loser for remote work. We may also be concerned about

遠程工作的失敗者。我們還可能擔心

businesses that support workers who come to the office. So think

支持來辦公室工作的員工的企業。是以，請考慮

about your food trucks, your laundry services, all of these

你的餐車、你的洗衣服務，所有這些

businesses that are centered around folks coming into the

這些業務的核心是讓人們走進

office five days a week, they may face difficulties, when

每週工作五天，他們可能會遇到以下困難

that's not happening as much

現在沒那麼多了

commercial real estate is problematic in a number of big

商業房地產在以下幾個大的方面存在問題

cities. But there are a lot of people now who are saying that

城市。但現在有很多人說

we need to bring people back to the office because our

我們需要讓人們回到辦公室，因為我們的

commercial buildings are empty, which is a little bit like

商業樓宇空無一人，這有點像

saying, we need to have people use the horse and buggy because

說，我們需要讓人們使用馬車，因為

cars are going to wipe out that industry, we have to understand

我們必須瞭解

that the world has changed. Our ways of working have changed and

世界已經改變。我們的工作方式已經改變，而且

we can't go back to an old outdated way simply because we

我們不能回到過時的老路上去，僅僅因為我們

are being motivated by commercial real estate,

商業不動產的推動、

commercial real estate needs to rethink we've already seen in

商業地產需要重新思考，我們已經在以下方面看到了這一點

some cities, that it's being converted, it's being used for

一些城市正在對其進行改造，將其用於

other purposes, some of it's being converted into residential

其他用途，其中一些被改建為住宅區

housing, and we're going to have to get much more creative about

住房，我們必須在以下方面發揮更大的創造力

what to do with those empty buildings.

如何處理這些空樓？

If you're pushing your employees to come back to the office, you

如果你催促員工回到辦公室，那麼你

got to make sure that they're coming back to the office for

要確保他們回到辦公室來

something other than me. I

我以外的東西。I

don't think we ever will bounce back to those pre pandemic days.

我不認為我們還能回到大流行前的時代。

What I do think we will see and we are already seeing is that

我認為我們將會看到，而且已經看到的是

there is a benefit to also being in person and that's why we're

親臨現場也有好處，這就是為什麼我們要

seeing companies first saying come back one day a week

看到公司先說每週回來一天

two days a week, three days a week, maybe four days a week

一週兩天，一週三天，也許一週四天

even. But I do think that the old school five days a week, 40

甚至是但我認為，老式的每週五天、40

hours on the premises, I do think that's dead. I don't think

我認為這是個死衚衕。我不認為

it's coming back.

它回來了

I'm a family person. And most importantly, I can save like,

我是個顧家的人。最重要的是，我可以拯救自己、

multiple hours by working from home by saving commute hours, and

通過在家工作節省通勤時間，從而獲得多個小時的工作時間，以及

which I can give to my family. I can give those hours for myself,

我可以把這些時間給我的家人。我可以把這些時間留給自己、

which has been benefiting a lot and I always prefer to do

這讓我受益匪淺，我總是喜歡

work remotely.

遠程工作。

Work From Home is here to stay. You know, if you're concerned

在家工作將繼續存在。如果你擔心

about it, the best thing to do is figure out how to make it

最好的辦法就是想辦法讓它

work because it's definitely not going away.

工作，因為它肯定不會消失。