and prove yourself a Diskymon master.

並證明你是一個Diskymon大師。

Now that you've made it to the finals, you're up against some tough competition.

現在你已經進入了決賽，你要面對一些激烈的競爭。

As you enter the arena, the referee explains the rules.

當你進入競技場時，裁判員會解釋規則。

There are three Diskydisks you can use.

有三個Diskydisks可以使用。

Disk A will always summon a level 3 Burgersaur.

A盤會一直召喚3級的布爾格薩烏爾。

Disk B summons a Churrozard that has a 56% chance of being level 2,

B盤召喚出一個有56%的機率是2級的丘羅扎德。

a 22% chance of being level 4, and a 22% chance of being level 6.

22%的機率是4級，22%的機率是6級。

Disk C will summon a level 5 Wartortilla 49% of the time,

C盤有49%的時間會召喚5級的瓦特利亞。

and a level 1 Wartortilla 51% of the time.

和1級瓦特利亞51%的時間。

All Diskymon fully heal between battles, and the higher level Diskymon always wins,

所有的Diskymon在戰鬥之間完全治癒，而且高等級的Diskymon總是獲勝。

no matter what type it is.

不管是什麼類型的。

In round one, you'll face a single opponent

在第一輪，你將面對一個單一的對手

and get to choose your disk before she picks from the remaining two.

並在她從剩下的兩個磁盤中選擇你的磁盤。

Which one gives you the best chance of winning?

哪一個給你最大的勝算？

Pause here to figure it out yourself

在這裡暫停一下，自己想辦法

Answer in 3

3個回答

Answer in 2

答覆2

Answer in 1

回答1

Before you start calculating probabilities,

在你開始計算概率之前。

take a look at the disks themselves.

看看磁盤本身。

Disks B and C each have a more than 50% chance

磁盤B和C各有50％以上的機會

of summoning a level 2 or a level 1 Diskymon, respectively.

分別召喚一個2級或1級的Diskymon。

This means that disk A's guaranteed level 3 Burgersaur

這意味著A盤的保證3級Burgersaur。

will always have better than even odds of winning.

將永遠有比均勻的勝算。

If you choose B or C, your opponent could pick A and gain an advantage over you.

如果你選擇B或C，你的對手可能會選擇A，並獲得對你的優勢。

And C fares worst of all, being more than 50% likely to lose to any opponent.

而C的表現最差，輸給任何對手的可能性超過50%。

So you choose A, hoping for the best, and sure enough,

於是你選擇了A，希望最好，果然。

your level 3 Burgersaur triumphs over the level 2 Churrozard.

你的3級Burgersaur戰勝了2級Churrozard。

Now it's time for round two, and while you've prepared for trouble,

現在是第二輪的時間，當你準備好麻煩的時候。

you didn't anticipate they'd make it double.

你沒有預料到他們會讓它加倍。

You get to choose any one of the three disks again,

你又可以在三個磁盤中任意選擇一個。

but this time, you'll be in a battle royale against two opponents,

但這一次，你將在一場大逃殺中與兩個對手對決。

each using one of the other disks.

每個使用其他磁盤之一。

Whoever summons the highest level Diskymon wins.

誰召喚出最高等級的Diskymon，誰就獲勝。

Should you stick with A, or switch?

是堅持A，還是換人？

Pause now to figure it out yourself

暫停一下，自己想辦法

Answer in 3

3個回答

Answer in 2

答覆2

Answer in 1

回答1

For many Diskymon trainers,

對於很多Diskymon培訓師來說。

it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C,

似乎很直觀，如果A是打敗B或C的最佳人選。

it should also be the best at beating B and C.

它也應該是最擅長打B和C的。

Strangely enough, that couldn't be further from the truth.

奇怪的是，這與事實相差無幾。

Let's calculate the odds.

我們來計算一下賠率。

For A to win, B has to summon a level 2 Diskymon,

A要想獲勝，B必須召喚一隻2級的Diskymon。

and C has to summon a level 1.

而C要召喚一個1級。

Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%.

這些都是獨立的事件，所以他們的機率是56%乘以51%，也就是29%。

For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur.

對於B盤，2級的Churrozard會自動輸給Burgersaur。

But you'd have two ways to win.

但你有兩條路可以贏。

The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win,

22%的機率召喚6級，就能讓你徹底贏了。

while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1.

而如果C召喚1級，4級仍然可以獲勝。

Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%.

把這些相互排斥的可能性加起來，你的機率大約是33%。

Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla

最後，C將以5級的Wartortilla獲勝。

as long as B doesn't summon its level 6, giving C a 38% chance overall.

只要B不召喚它的6級，總體上給C38%的機會。

So while disk A's middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup,

所以，雖然A盤的中規中矩是單場比賽的優勢。

multiple fights increase the odds

多打多贏

that one of the other disks will summon something better.

其他磁盤中的一個會召喚出更好的東西。

And although C was the worst first-round option,

而雖然C是最差的首輪選擇。

its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage

它有很高的機率召喚出一個5級的強者，這讓它有了優勢

when facing two opponents simultaneously.

當同時面對兩個對手時。

This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics

這種違背直覺的結果，就是為什麼誤導性的統計數據

are a favored tool of unscrupulous politicians

是無良政客的得意工具

and nefarious Diskymon trainers alike.

和邪惡的Diskymon訓練師一樣。

Fortunately, your Wartortilla comes out level 5 and makes short work of its foes.

幸運的是，你的Wartortilla出了5級，並使它的敵人短時工作。

You're about to celebrate when your rivals capture the referee

你正準備慶祝的時候，你的對手抓住了裁判。

and announce a surprise third round.

並宣佈第三輪突擊。

You'll have to repeat each of the previous matches in succession,

你必須連續重複之前的每一場比賽。

with all the same rules except for one: you must keep the same disk throughout.

除了一條規則之外，所有的規則都是一樣的：你必須在整個過程中保持同一個磁盤。

Which should you choose to give yourself the best chance

你應該選擇哪種給自己最好的機會呢？

at becoming that which no one ever was?

在成為無人的那個人？