that carries over into his trade policy.

對貿易政策的態度也是如此

"...remember that! America first! America first!"

切記：「美國優先！美國優先！」

He sees these kinds of things as very much zero-sum: in which one side wins and another side loses.

他認為貿易就像「零和遊戲」，一方得益一方受損

"We've lost our jobs like we're a bunch of babies.

「我們丟了工作，就會像一群嬰兒

They've gone to other countries.

他們去了其他國家

They've gone to Mexico.

他們去墨西哥

They've gone to many other countries.

去的國家多得數不清

...It's all so easy, believe me.

相信我，這一切都太簡單了

It's all so easy."

不費吹灰之力。」

But in a complex system like global trade, it's not always easy to tell who is winning.

但在全球貿易這樣複雜的體系中，要分辨誰是贏家並不容易

Trump has suggested really really really strongly that he wants to crack down on imports from Mexico.

川普極力想冗斷與墨國的貿易

"...and plants and factories and everything else going into Mexico."

「植物啊、工廠啊，所有在墨國的一切。」

...and that has driven down the value of Mexico's currency an enormous amount.

致使墨國的貨幣大幅貶值

Ironically, making the peso cheaper makes it an even more attractive place to locate production

說來挺諷刺的，披索的貶值反而讓墨國成為更吸引人的生產國

because it means that, in effect, Mexican workers are being paid less

因為那意味著，事實上，墨國勞工薪資較低

and makes it harder for American factories to compete with Mexican ones.

也讓美國的工廠越來越難與墨國工廠競爭

But that's not what Donald Trump says is going to happen.

但是這跟川普說的不一樣

"...but here's what happens: I will tell them, 'You're gonna move back, right?'

我會告訴他們：「你們要回去了，對吧？」

and they're gonna say, "Yes, sir. We're moving back to the United States."

然後他們會說：「是，我們要回美國了。」

We're going to build our factory in the United States.

我們就要回美國設廠了

We're not moving to Mexico and we are going to create a lot of new employment.

我們不會搬到墨西哥，我們會讓更多人在美國有就業機會！

Trump blames the loss of manufacturing jobs on trade deals like NAFTA: The North American Free Trade Agreement

川普批判在貿易協定中製造業的低就業率，像是《北美自由貿易協定》

that reduced barriers to trade between the US, Canada, and Mexico.

減少了美國、加拿大、墨西哥間的貿易壁壘

"NAFTA will tear down trade barriers between our three nations.

「《北美自由貿易協定》消除了三國間的貿易壁壘。

It will create the world's largest trade zone and create 20,000 jobs in this country."

它造就世界上最大的區域經濟，創造出兩萬個工作機會。」

"We're not getting anything. We have NAFTA, which is a total and complete disaster."

「我們得不到什麼。《北美自由貿易協定》對我們來說根本是場災難。」

While trade deals are an easy target on the campaign trail, they are only one part of the equation.

雖然說貿易協議只是川普在總統競選時承諾過的一項改革

When you look at the really long term, you can see that

遠光放遠一點，你會發現

manufacturing jobs have been declining as a share of the economy very steadily for a very long time.

製造業的就業率下滑已經不是三天兩天的事了

And that tells us that, even though trade deals matter, they are not the driver of this big trend.

因此，貿易協定固然有影響，但並不是造成此現象的主因

It's just, over the long haul,because of automation, as economies evolve and advance,

長遠來看，隨著經濟上的發展與進步

more people work in the service sector, fewer people work in the manufacturing sector.

自動化的衝擊讓越來越多人投入服務業，從事製造業的人也就隨之減少

Trade plays a role in that, but it's not the primary driver.

貿易也是這當中的一環，但不是主要原因

despite this fact, it's exactly those jobs that Trump is claiming to protect by withdrawing from the TPP, The Trans-Pacific Partnership.

儘管如此，川普仍決定退出《跨太平洋夥伴協定》以保護其工作機會

"A great thing for the American worker, what we just did."

「我們剛剛做的是為了美國工人好。」

This particular trade deal,

這份貿易協定

it was designed to take a lot of Asian countries and bind them more closely together with the United States,

是設計來讓更多的亞洲國家可以和美國進行貿易

one reason countries were eager to do a trade deal with The United States, rather than with China,

這些國家之所以想和美國簽屬貿易協定，而非中國

is that they are closer to China and thus they are a little bit afraid of China

是因為他們的地理位置與中國太相近，造成他們對中國的恐懼

and they want to keep the United States investing in Asia.

也希望美國可以投資亞太地區

If we pull out, that may leave some of these countries feeling exposed or alone

如果美國抽手，就會讓這些國家無所適從

and like they need to enter into a Chinese economic orbit.

取而代之投靠中國

This decision means fewer cheap imports,

這個決定讓進口關稅越來越高

but it also affects the market for American exports.

但也影響了美國的出口

One thing that's worth noting here is that farmers would've been big winners under Trans Pacific Partnership.

不過，漁翁得利，農夫會是《跨太平洋夥伴協定》底下的最大贏家

In particular, I think the expectation was that the United States would be able to export a lot more agricultural goods to Japan.

美國將能出口更多農產品到日本

If the US has joined the TPP, American farmers would have had a stronger relationship with Japan, the world's fourth largest agricultural consumer.

如果美國加入《跨太平洋夥伴協定》，美國農夫就能鞏固與世界第四大農場品需求國的日本的貿易關係

Rural voters broke very very heavily in favor of Donald Trump,

農夫們大力相挺川普的決策

but they may actually lose out by his sort of less trade-friendly policies.

但他們想都沒想到，他們會因川普的決策而失利

And it just shows that the world is complicated and it's difficult to change things.

這只反映了大環境太過複雜，無法輕易改變既定事情的事實

And, you really do need to talk to expert people.

所以你非常需要跟專家好好聊聊

"I am a free trader one hundred percent, but we need smart people making the deals

「我是百分之百的自由貿易者，但是我們需要聰明的人來為我們做決定，

and we don't have smart people making the deals."

可是我們沒有聰明的決策者。」

Trump's view is that for us to win at trade somebody else has to be losing.

川普認為美國在貿易上一定是贏家，其他國家沒有贏的分

"This country is going to start winning again. We don't win anymore."

「美國和從前不一樣了，我們將再度贏得勝利、拿回主導權。」

I don't think that that is true

但我不認為是這樣

If he proves me wrong, you know, I think he'll have a great deal to brag about,

如果他能證明我是錯的，那最好不過，而他也會大肆炫耀

but I think he's going to find that, you know,

但他很快就會發現

the forces dragging American manufacturing employment down are fairly profound and that the kinds of things he thinks will fix it are just as likely to make things worse as better.

自己在弄巧成拙，因為有更複雜的原因在拉垮美國製造業的就業機會