Name: 川普誤判伊朗情勢？ 尼爾·弗格森分析！ (Did Trump Miscalculate on Iran? with Niall Ferguson)
Uploaded: 2026-03-21T06:16:19.000Z
Duration: 58 min 16 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

The great Neil Ferguson joins School of War today.

School of War 今天請到重量級人物 Neil Ferguson。

We start by talking about the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and some of its historical antecedents.

我們從談論荷姆茲海峽的危機開始，以及它的一些歷史前因。

In particular, the operation to force the Dardanelles back in World War I and its catastrophic conclusion.

特別是第一次世界大戰時，強行通過達達尼爾海峽的行動，以及其災難性的結局。

We talk about the 1980s and the tanker wars, and then we come up to the present day.

我們聊聊 1980 年代的油輪戰爭，然後再談到現在。

And what does the broader war mean for the future of US Russia and US China relations?

而這場更廣泛的戰爭，對美俄和美中關係的未來又意味著什麼？

It's a really fascinating conversation, kind of the perfect School of War episode, if I do say so myself.

這是一場非常引人入勝的對話，如果我自己說的話，這根本就是一集完美的 School of War。

It is a prescription for war, this Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, December 7, 1941, a date which will live in infamy.

這簡直就是戰爭的預兆，伊拉克入侵科威特，1941 年 12 月 7 日，這一天將會是恥辱的一天。

The bloody experience of Vietnam is to end in a state we continue to face grave situations.

越南的血腥經驗，最後卻是我們持續面對嚴峻局勢的下場。

In France, people are not these buildings.

We shall fight in the fields and in the streets.

我們要在田野裡、在街頭上戰鬥。

I am delighted to welcome to the show today Neil Ferguson, who is the Milbank family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

我非常高興今天能邀請到 Neil Ferguson 來到節目，他是史丹佛大學胡佛研究所的 Milbank family Senior Fellow。

He's the author of well over a dozen books, the Pity of War, the Health of Rothschild.

他寫了十幾本書，包括 Pity of War 和 Health of Rothschild。

He is Kissinger, Henry Kissinger's biographer.

他是季辛吉，亨利·季辛吉的傳記作者。

The first volume of that biography, Kissinger 1923-1968.

這本傳記的第一卷是 Kissinger 1923-1968。

The world eagerly awaits whatever is to follow there.

全世界都迫不及待地想知道接下來會發生什麼。

Neil, thank you so much for joining School of War.

Neil，非常感謝你來到 School of War。

What I would like to do today is to talk about the global dimensions of operations.

今天我想談談這次行動的全球面向。

You've written a series of pieces in the Free Press about just this.

你在 Free Press 上寫了一系列關於這方面的文章。

The most recent caught my attention, not only because it's really interesting and I think everyone ought to read it, but

最近這篇特別吸引我，不只是因為它真的很精彩，我覺得大家都很應該去讀讀看，

because it involves an extended case study of Gallipoli and the Dardanelles Straits in the First World War.

而是因為它深入探討了第一次世界大戰中加里波利和達達尼爾海峽的案例。

It also looks at the Tanker wars of the 80s and the operation to escort ships through the Strait then.

它也探討了80年代的油輪戰爭，以及當時護送船隻通過海峽的行動。

But I was struck by the Gallipoli discussion just because, as someone raised with an Australian mother, I was raised in the cult of Gallipoli in a particular sort of Australian version, the slightly resentful Mel Gibsonian version of it.

但加里波利的討論真的讓我印象深刻，因為我是澳洲媽媽帶大的，從小我就深受澳洲版本的加里波利崇拜影響，就是那種有點怨恨、有點像梅爾吉勃遜電影裡的風格。

I read the novel, I saw the movie, I got to meet one of the actors, one of the lead who's killed in the movie, when I was a kid.

我讀過小說，看過電影，小時候還見過一位飾演電影裡陣亡主角的演員。

This is all part of the architecture of my youth.

這一切都是我年輕時的成長記憶。

Neil, are you talking about something that happened in 1915 when trying to understand what's going on in the Persian Gulf today?

Neil，你在試圖理解今天波斯灣發生的事時，卻在談論1915年發生的事呢？

And of course, you didn't need to be an Aussie or a New Zealander to be moved by the movie Gallipoli.

當然，不一定要是澳洲人或紐西蘭人，才會被電影《加里波利》感動。

As a Scot, I grew up in the shadow of World War I because it had an extraordinary impact on the Scottish people.

身為蘇格蘭人，我在第一次世界大戰的陰影下長大，因為它對蘇格蘭人民產生了非凡的影響。

We had disproportionately high casualties in World War I, and

我們在第一次世界大戰中傷亡慘重，

it was in many ways the seminal event of 20th century Scotland.

這在很多方面都是20世紀蘇格蘭的開創性事件。

So why am I talking about events that happened, well, 111 years ago when we're in the age of modern 21st century drone warfare with precision missiles?

所以，當我們處於現代21世紀、擁有精準飛彈的無人機戰爭時代時，我為什麼要談論111年前發生的事情呢？

Because there's nothing older than having a fight over a choke point like the Strait of Hormuz.

因為沒有什麼比為了像荷姆茲海峽這樣的咽喉要道而戰更古老的了。

And indeed, you don't need to have read the recent book Choke Points, which is actually about financial sanctions, to get this point.

事實上，你不需要讀過最近那本關於金融制裁的書《咽喉要道》（Choke Points），就能明白這一點。

You just need to have done some military history.

Back in 1914, the Black Sea Straits, the Dardanelles, were as important to the world economy as the Strait of Hormuz has been really since the 1970s.

早在1914年，黑海海峽，也就是達達尼爾海峽，對世界經濟的重要性，就如同自1970年代以來荷姆茲海峽對世界經濟的重要性一樣。

And that's why it's important to learn some lessons of history where conflicts of this sort are concerned, because some things don't change, like geography and narrow waterways that are controllable by one empire or another are the stuff of many historical studies.

這就是為什麼在處理這類衝突時，學習一些歷史教訓很重要，因為有些事情不會改變，比如地理以及可以被某個帝國控制的狹窄水道，這些都是許多歷史研究的素材。

There's a wonderful book by Nicholas Lambert about the Gallipoli campaign which will shred everything that you thought you knew and held dear about that subject.

尼古拉斯·蘭伯特（Nicholas Lambert）寫了一本關於加里波利戰役的精彩著作，它將徹底顛覆你對這個主題的所有認知和珍視的想法。

I urge everybody to read it who's serious about the study of war.

任何認真研究戰爭的人，我都強烈建議大家去讀。

it's a rare thing, is to combine an understanding of military aspects and indeed naval aspects of the conflicts with the economics.

這是一件很難得的事，就是結合了軍事方面，甚至海軍方面的衝突理解，以及經濟學。

And let me give you a kind of short version.

讓我來給大家一個簡短的版本。

This doesn't get you out of reading the book.

這並不代表你就不需要讀這本書了。

Viewers and listeners don't think a podcast is an alternative to reading a book.

觀眾和聽眾不要以為 Podcast 是閱讀書籍的替代品。

It's a war between viewers know on one side, Britain and France and Russia, sometimes called the Entente Powers, and

這是一場戰爭，一方是大家知道的英國、法國和俄羅斯，有時被稱為協約國，

the other side, the Central Powers, Germany, the German Reich and Austria, Hungary.

另一方則是同盟國，德國、德意志帝國以及奧匈帝國。

It's not clear which way the Ottoman Empire will go.

鄂圖曼帝國會走向哪邊，還不明朗。

Everybody sort of knows that that matters because throughout the 19th century, there had been recurrence battles, diplomatic and military, over control of the Black Sea Straits.

大家都知道這很重要，因為在整個 19 世紀，為了控制黑海海峽，一直有外交和軍事上的爭奪戰。

Because the V Redbasket of the Russian Empire, what we now think of as Ukraine as well as Romania had exported extraordinarily large amounts and indeed growing amounts of wheat through the Black Sea to the rest of the world.

因為俄羅斯帝國的糧倉，也就是我們現在知道的烏克蘭和羅馬尼亞，透過黑海出口了非常大量的，而且持續增長的麥子到世界各地。

And in the 19th century, as Britain industrialized and then other European countries industrialized, urban populations became more and more dependent on imported wheat from those ultra fertile places.

在 19 世紀，隨著英國工業化，接著其他歐洲國家也工業化，城市人口越來越依賴從這些極度肥沃的地區進口的小麥。

It also mattered quite a lot to the Russian Empire because as the Russian Empire tried to keep up with the times, industrialize and build a modern military, it borrowed a lot of money in Paris and London.

這對俄羅斯帝國也很重要，因為當俄羅斯帝國試圖跟上時代、工業化並建立現代軍隊時，它在巴黎和倫敦借了很多錢。

And in order to service the debts, it needed to export that wheat from Ukraine, then part of the Russian Empire, in order to earn hard currency, gold based currency to pay the debt.

為了償還債務，它需要出口烏克蘭（當時是俄羅斯帝國的一部分）的麥子，以賺取硬通貨，也就是基於黃金的貨幣來支付債務。

The war breaks out and Winston Churchill.

戰爭爆發了，溫斯頓·邱吉爾。

The Winston Churchill is First Lord of the Admiralty.

He is essentially Secretary for the Navy in the liberal government headed by Herbert Asquith.

他基本上是赫伯特·阿斯奎斯領導的自由黨政府的海軍部長。

Churchill is focused on matters naval and he rather aggressively approaches the question of what's going to happen to some battleships, dreadnoughts that have been built for the Turks in Britain and says, we're going to need these for the war.

邱吉爾專注於海軍事務，他相當積極地處理一些英國為土耳其建造的戰艦、無畏艦的未來，並說：「我們將需要它們來打仗。」

So just tell the Sultan, terribly sorry, but needs must.

所以就跟蘇丹說，非常抱歉，但情勢所逼。

A sequence of events quite rapidly leads with some help from the Germans to the Ottomans.

在一連串事件的快速發展下，加上德國人的協助，鄂圖曼帝國。

Turkey, as we say today, joining the Central Powers.

正如我們今天所說的，土耳其加入了同盟國。

And at that moment it becomes clear that Churchill has fallen victim to the law of unintended consequences.

就在那一刻，很明顯邱吉爾成了意想不到後果的犧牲品。

Because the minute the Turks join the Central Powers, they can block the Black Sea Straits.

因為土耳其加入同盟國的瞬間，他們就能封鎖黑海海峽。

They can do what Iran is doing for the Strait of Hormuz right now and say, oh, now that we're in the war, I'm afraid, terribly sorry, Russia, those grain shipments can't sail through the straits.

他們可以做現在伊朗對待荷姆茲海峽的事，然後說：「喔，既然我們參戰了，我很抱歉，俄羅斯，那些穀物運輸船不能通過海峽了。」

Whereupon Churchill says, leave us to me.

於是邱吉爾說，這件事交給我。

We'll simply send a naval force into the Black Sea Straits and solve the problem with the might of the Royal Navy.

我們就派一支海軍部隊進入黑海海峽，用皇家海軍的武力解決這個問題。

Now everybody starts to think this is a good idea because they're confronting a rapid rise in wheat prices in Britain and the government's extremely worried that rising inflation may make them unpopular.

現在大家開始覺得這是個好主意，因為他們正面臨英國小麥價格飛漲，而政府非常擔心不斷上漲的通膨可能會讓他們失去民心。

But the pre oil world ran on bread because that's what you feed the working class.

但在石油時代之前，世界靠麵包運作，因為那是餵養勞工階級的食物。

And the prospect of a doubling in the price of bread is little like the prospect of a doubling in the price of oil.

而麵包價格翻倍的前景，跟石油價格翻倍的前景差不多。

這對政府來說是個很糟糕的消息。

So they all agree, let's do this, let's break through the straits.

所以大家一致同意，我們就這麼做吧，我們來突破海峽。

We have the Royal Navy, it should be straightforward.

我們有皇家海軍，應該很順利。

And somebody says well, maybe we'll get regime change.

然後有人說，嗯，也許我們會實現政權更迭。

Does this sound at all familiar to you, Ehran?

這聽起來有沒有讓你覺得很熟悉，Ehran？

If we do this and the Turkish government will change and become aligned with us instead of the Germans.

如果我們這麼做，土耳其政府就會改變，轉而支持我們，而不是德國。

I'm going to pause there because I've given you quite a lot of the plot, but

我先暫停一下，因為我已經講了不少劇情了，但是

there is, of course, a twist and several twists to come.

當然，還有一個轉折，而且接下來還有好幾個轉折。

And, you know, I was struck by your inclusion of this case study into the piece.

而且，你知道，你把這個案例研究納入文章，讓我印象深刻。

Of course, your other case study, I, and, you know, many other people focused on the Strait of Hormuz these days have been focused on, which is, of course, the case of Operation Earnest will in 1987 and 88, which is a success story.

當然，你的另一個案例研究，我和，你知道，許多其他關注荷姆茲海峽的人，最近都在關注，那就是，當然，1987年和88年的「真誠行動」案例，這是一個成功的例子。

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川普誤判伊朗情勢？尼爾·弗格森分析！ (Did Trump Miscalculate on Iran? with Niall Ferguson)

川普誤判伊朗情勢？ 尼爾·弗格森分析！ (Did Trump Miscalculate on Iran? with Niall Ferguson)

川普誤判伊朗情勢？尼爾·弗格森分析！ (Did Trump Miscalculate on Iran? with Niall Ferguson)