Name: 股市又崩盤了！但情況恐怕會變得更糟！ (Stock Market is Crashing AGAIN, But it’s about to get a lot worse)
Uploaded: 2026-03-13T18:04:30.000Z
Duration: 11 min 44 s

Over the last couple of months, many AI stocks has crashed.

在過去幾個月裡，許多 AI 股票都崩盤了。

So it doesn't make sense that the stock market is crashing again.

所以股市又開始崩盤，這說不過去。

But in reality, oil prices are so influential in the stock market that they have the power to entirely eliminate the valuation of tech stocks.

但實際上，油價對股市的影響力非常大，足以完全抹殺科技股的價值。

Over the last couple of weeks, as the war against Iran has started, oil prices have surged from about $60 to as high as $93.

在過去幾週，隨著對伊朗的戰爭開打，油價從大約 60 美元飆升到 93 美元。

At some point they even crossed almost $120.

有時候甚至飆破了將近 120 美元。

At first glance it doesn't make sense because these multi trillion dollar corporations have hundreds of billions of dollars and they can easily absorb that cost.

乍看之下，這說不通，因為這些數兆美元的公司擁有數千億美元，可以輕鬆吸收這些成本。

I mean, a slight increase in oil prices, even by 50% should not have a serious implication on average.

我的意思是，油價即使上漲 50% 也不應該對平均股價產生嚴重影響。

Apple、Microsoft、Nvidia，隨便你說。

Because these companies are making huge margins on their profits.

因為這些公司賺取了非常高的利潤。

Since they have a complete monopoly on AI chips because their chips are the best chips to power AI Today they are charging so much.

由於它們在 AI 晶片方面擁有絕對的壟斷地位，因為它們的晶片是驅動 AI 的最佳晶片，所以它們現在收取這麼高的價格。

So why is it such a small increase, or even a huge increase, such as a 50% increase in oil prices, is suddenly having such a huge huge implication on the entire stock market.

那麼，為什麼油價上漲 50% 這樣的小幅增長，甚至大幅增長，會突然對整個股市產生如此巨大的影響呢？

And that's why the stock market is not an equal game.

這就是為什麼股市不是一個公平的遊戲。

If you look at the stock market, most of it basically consists of the S&P 500.

如果你看看股市，大部分基本上是由 S&P 500 組成。

Now, S&P 500 are the top 500 largest companies in the US.

現在，S&P 500 是美國市值最大的 500 家公司。

These are the companies that have dominated a single industry or a certain industry.

這些公司主導了單一產業或特定產業。

They're stable, they're growing, they make a lot of money.

它們穩定、成長，而且賺了很多錢。

Their valuation is typically in at least two tens of billions of dollars and sometimes trillions of dollars.

它們的市值通常至少有數百億美元，有時甚至達到數兆美元。

But even the S&P 500 is not equal at all.

但即使是 S&P 500，也並非完全平等。

Because a third of the entire S&P 500 is simply the top largest tech companies.

因為整個 S&P 500 中，有三分之一就只是最大的幾家科技公司。

Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, and so on and so forth.

Apple、Tesla、Microsoft、Meta，等等等等。

And the other 2 3rd are the rest of the S&P 500.

剩下的三分之二就是 S&P 500 的其他公司。

So if you want to understand what is happening with the stock market, all you have to do is that is to understand how the valuation of these stocks change.

所以如果你想了解股市發生了什麼事，你只需要瞭解這些股票的市值如何變化。

If the Magnificent Seven, their stock prices are rising dramatically, they will take with them the rest of the S&P 500 and the rest of the entire stock market and vice versa.

如果「七巨頭」的股價大幅上漲，它們就會帶動整個 S&P 500 和整個股市，反之亦然。

And that's why if you for example, go to 2020, when the federal Reserve has pushed interest rates to bare minimum, the entire stock market was growing.

這就是為什麼，舉例來說，如果你回到 2020 年，當時美國聯邦準備理事會將利率降到最低，整個股市都在上漲。

That's not because every single company has profited from the pandemic or the low interest rates.

這並不是因為每家公司都從疫情或低利率中獲利。

There has been A lot of businesses that suffered, a lot of businesses closed down their doors.

有很多企業遭受損失，很多企業關閉了。

But those low interest rates have pushed the Magnificent Seven to rise dramatically.

不過，那些低利率推動了「七巨頭」股價大幅上漲。

And that's why the S&P 500 did so well in 2020 and 2021.

這就是為什麼在 2020 年和 2021 年 S&P 500 表現這麼好的原因。

And that's also why the S&P 500 completely crashed in 2022, when the Federal Reserve has 80 increase the interest rates.

這也是為什麼在 2022 年，當美國聯邦準備理事會升息時，S&P 500 會完全崩盤。

Now, to understand the tech companies, you have to look at them as a printing machine that takes money in and makes money out.

現在，要了解科技公司，你得把它們看成一臺印鈔機，投入金錢，產出金錢。

If you look at the tech company in this scenario, then you understand how their valuation actually works.

如果你從這個角度看科技公司，你就會明白它們的估值實際上是如何運作的。

So a business at the end of the day is money coming in, building a product, doing a process, and

所以，一家企業的本質就是金錢進來，打造產品，進行流程，然後

then money comes out, but not all that money is equal.

再有金錢出來，但並非所有這些金錢都是一樣的。

So, for example, Amazon makes like 7 or $800 billion in revenue.

所以，舉例來說，Amazon 的營收大約有 7、8 千億美元。

And yet Amazon is not the world's largest and the most valued company because there is a huge cost.

然而 Amazon 並不是世界上最大、最有價值的公司，因為有巨大的成本。

They're not making a profit on that $800 billion since, because most of that is just you made a revenue and then there is a cost.

它們在那 8 千億美元的營收上並沒有賺到利潤，因為大部分只是你產生了營收，然後有成本。

Let's suppose that I'm gonna sell this pen for $1 billion, but my cost is like $999 million.

假設我要賣這支筆賣 10 億美元，但我的成本大概是 9.99 億美元。

我實際賺到的利潤只有 100 萬美元。

On the other side, there is a business that makes $100 million and their cost is like 90%.

另一方面，有一家公司營收 1 億美元，成本卻是 90%。

Even though that the second business makes a lot less money than my business, their valuation is going to be a lot more because they're making more money for their investors.

即使第二家公司的營收遠少於我，但因為他們為投資者賺的錢更多，所以價值會高很多。

So to understand the valuation of a tech company, we have to understand what is the real value of the present cash and what is the real value of the future cash.

所以，要了解一家科技公司的價值，我們必須瞭解目前的現金的真實價值，以及未來的現金的真實價值。

And because if I'm going to tell you that my business is going to make, let's say, a trillion dollars five years from now, the question you should be asking yourself is that what is going to be the value of that trillion dollars today?

因為如果我要跟你說，我的公司五年後會賺到，假設是 1 兆美元，你應該問自己的問題是，這 1 兆美元在今天值多少錢？

Because if you had that trillion dollars today, you could have invested that money and got some interest.

因為如果你今天就有這 1 兆美元，你可以把這些錢拿去投資賺取一些利息。

There is going to be a lot of inflation between now and the next five years.

從現在到未來五年，會有很大的通貨膨脹。

So the value of that $5 trillion today is going to be a lot less than today.

所以這 1 兆美元在今天的價值，會比現在少很多。

And that's why we always say that a dollar today worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

所以，我們總是說「今天的 1 元比明天的 1 元更有價值」。

If you reverse engineer this sentence, then it means that a dollar tomorrow worth a lot less than a dollar today.

如果你反過來想這句話，那意思就是「明天的 1 元，遠比今天的 1 元價值少很多」。

So the real question comes back at the end of the day is dodge how these businesses make money and what's the valuation of that future Cash flow or that future profit in today's money.

所以說到底，真正的問題是，這些公司是怎麼賺錢的，以及這些未來的現金流或利潤，以今天的錢來算，價值是多少。

Most tech companies are giving us a very simple promise which we are developing technology.

大部分的科技公司都給我們一個很簡單的承諾，就是我們正在開發技術。

And to develop this technology, we need a lot of money that should go into this printing machine.

而開發這些技術，我們需要很多錢，這些錢應該要投入到這個印鈔機裡。

We will develop the technology and we will make a lot more money in the future.

我們會開發技術，而且未來會賺到更多錢。

So, for example, we are going to put $1 billion into this business, and

所以，舉例來說，我們要投入 10 億美元到這家公司，

then this business is going to make $10 billion.

然後這家公司會賺到 100 億美元。

So the real question is that what is the cost of this $1 billion and what is the true value of this $10 billion?

所以真正的問題是，這 10 億美元的成本是多少，以及這 100 億美元的真實價值是多少？

And rising oil prices have a huge implication on these two numbers.

而油價上漲對這兩個數字都有巨大的影響。

And that is why the value or the stock price of this company's either go up or down.

所以這就是為什麼這家公司的價值或股價會漲或跌。

So Iran says to the world that get ready for oil prices of $200.

所以伊朗就對全世界說，準備好迎接每桶 200 美元的油價吧。

Because Iran by itself is one of the largest oil producers, but it's not by far the largest.

因為伊朗本身就是最大的石油生產國之一，但還不是最大。

It sits at a point where it literally controls 20% of the global oil supply.

它位於一個關鍵位置，實際上控制了全球 20% 的石油供應。

So Gulf countries literally produce a lot of oil, but

所以波斯灣國家確實生產很多石油，但

most of that oil goes through this trade of Hormuz.

大部分的石油都通過荷姆茲海峽這個貿易路線。

But because the United States still unable to control that strait of Hormuz, it means that there is a deficit of 20% of the global oil.

但因為美國仍然無法控制荷姆茲海峽，這意味著全球石油會有 20% 的短缺。

That means that oil prices will continue rising.

And just to show you how serious that problem is, countries have already, such as Japan and the European Union, released their strategic reserves because they know that this problem is not going to be solved anytime soon.

而且為了讓大家知道這個問題有多嚴重，像是日本和歐盟這些國家，已經釋出他們的戰備儲油，因為他們知道這個問題短期內不會解決。

So high oil prices instantly means that there is going to be a lot of inflation.

所以油價高漲，就代表著會有很多的通貨膨脹。

Because our global economy is interconnected.

因為我們的全球經濟是互相連結的。

Everything is being moved from one country into another, from one city into another, from one county into another.

所有東西都在從一個國家運到另一個國家，從一個城市運到另一個城市，從一個縣市運到另一個縣市。

And because there is a transportation cost, it means that by the time it reaches to a different place, since gas prices have risen, the final cost is going to rise.

而且因為有運輸成本，這代表當東西運到不同地方時，由於油價上漲，最終成本也會跟著上漲。

The second part of the story is that Covid global shipping becomes more expensive since it's unsecure, since insurance companies have gone up.

故事的第二部分是，因為疫情，全球貨運變得更貴，因為不安全，因為保險公司提高了費用。

And basically global shipping is not as safe as it was in the past.

基本上，全球貨運不像過去那麼安全了。

So all of these are driving the cost and inflation across the globe higher and higher.

所以這一切都在推升全球的成本和通膨，而且會越來越高。

And when you have high inflation, instantly, the Federal Reserve has to control inflation by hiking interest rates.

而且當通膨很高的時候，美國聯邦準備理事會就得立刻調升利率來控制通膨。

Now it doesn't matter what is the real cause of that inflation.

現在通膨的真正原因是什麼已經不重要了。

It could be tariffs, it could be high energy prices, it could be whatever it could be.

可能是關稅、可能是能源價格高漲，或任何原因。

The job of the Federal Reserve is not to play with that.

美國聯邦準備理事會的工作不是去管那些。

The job of the Federal Reserve is to manipulate Interest rates to have either low inflation or high inflation.

美國聯邦準備理事會的工作是操縱利率，讓通膨變低或變高。

So imagine we had up until this time like $50 per barrel, the price of oil.

所以想像一下，到目前為止，油價每桶是 50 美元。

Now the price of oil could potentially go to as much as 150 or $200.

現在油價可能漲到 150 或 200 美元。

That means that there is going to be entire inflation throughout the entire year.

So the Federal Reserve instantly increases the interest rates.

所以美國聯邦準備理事會會立刻調升利率。

That leads to higher yields on long term Treasuries.

這會導致長期公債的殖利率上升。

Now the question is that what does that do to the future dollars?

那現在問題來了，這對未來的美元有什麼影響？

So this business that's supposed to make $10 billion in the future, what is going to be the real value of this $10 billion when there is going to be more inflation and higher interest rates?

所以這家公司未來預計賺 100 億美元，但通膨更高、利率也更高的時候，這 100 億美元的實際價值會是多少？

Because inflation is now going to be higher, the value of that $2 billion is going to be a lot less than it would be when inflation would be lower.

因為現在通膨會更高，那 20 億美元的價值會比通膨較低時少很多。

Secondly, because the Federal Reserve is increasing interest rates, the yield on 10 year treasuries are also rising.

第二，因為美國聯邦準備理事會正在調升利率，十年期公債的殖利率也在上升。

That means that the opportunity cost is rising.

That means that if I had that money today, I could have invested that money in the US Treasuries and I could earn a higher interest rate.

這表示如果我今天有那筆錢，我可以投資到美國公債，賺取更高的利率。

So essentially these two factors make that $10 billion that the company will make five years from now a lot less valuable.

所以基本上這兩個因素讓這家公司五年後賺到的 100 億美元價值大幅縮水。

Because there is inflation and because yields on long term Treasuries have risen.

因為有通膨，而且長期公債的殖利率也上升了。

And that's why the valuation of a tech company instantly goes down.

這就是為什麼科技公司的估值會瞬間下降。