Name: 川普民調慘跌！油價飆漲，讓人崩潰的真實原因大公開！ (Enten breaks down Trump’s dismal ratings as gas prices skyrocket)
Uploaded: 2026-03-11T23:05:07.000Z
Duration: 8 min 1 s

We have reached a milestone when it comes to President Trump's approval rating.

川普總統的支持率來到了一個重要的里程碑。

CNN chief data analyst Harry is here with that.

CNN 的首席資料分析師 Harry 在這裡為我們說明。

You know, I took a look at all the polling average it all together and we have now reached the year mark.

我看了一下所有的民調平均，我們現在已經來到了一年的時間點。

We have now reached the year mark in which he has a negative net approval rating.

我們現在已經來到了一年，在這段期間他的負淨支持率一直都存在。

So we have been talking about this for a long period of time according to my average of polls.

根據我的民調平均，我們已經討論這件事很久了。

What we've been looking at is Every day since March 12, 2025, President Trump has been underwater and we've been counting up the days.

我們看到的是，從 2025 年 3 月 12 日開始，川普總統每天都處於劣勢，我們一直在計算天數。

We've shown this slide a number of times and we have now reached the point in which Trump has been swimming with the fishes for a year.

我們之前已經看過這個圖表好幾次了，現在川普總統處境艱難已經滿一年了。

所以，這不是一個開心的週年紀念。

So under like ours underwater, it's always a happy, I know, love underwater overall.

所以，像我們說的「處於劣勢」，總是讓人開心，我知道，大家都喜歡「處於劣勢」這個說法。

但有一個選民群體的情況真的很糟。

Yeah, really bad with one voting group, John.

對，約翰，有一個選民群體的情況真的很糟。

你知道的，我們已經討論過這件事了。

Independence, independence, independence, the center of the electorate.

獨立選民、獨立選民、獨立選民，選民的中心。

We have been talking about how Trump has been just downright awful with them.

我們一直在談論川普對他們有多糟糕。

And I decided we're going to look back and compare it to other presidents this century at this point in their second term.

我決定我們要回顧並比較本世紀其他總統在第二任期這個時間點的情況。

Compare it to George Bush, compare it to Barack Obama.

跟小布希比較，跟歐巴馬比較。

And look at that, 38 points underwater at this point.

你看，在這個時間點，支持率低於 50% 38 個百分點。

That is worse than George W. Bush by double digits.

Bush's second term went way, way, Katrina, Iraq, ultimately the Great Recession as well.

的第二任期，經歷了卡崔娜風災、伊拉克戰爭，最後還有大衰退。

意思是，獨立選民不喜歡什麼？

Are you focusing on what people actually care about?

你是不是在關注大家真正關心的事？

And if you, if you look right now, you look at a Fox News poll that recently came out, look at this.

而且如果你現在看，看看最近出來的 Fox News 民調，看看這個。

Say the Trump admin is focused on the wrong things.

60% overall say that the Trump administration is focused on the wrong things.

整體有 60% 的人說川普政府關注錯的事情。

78% of independents say that the Trump administration is focused on the wrong things.

78% 的獨立選民說川普政府關注錯的事情。

約翰，這在政治上是怎麼運作的？

I don't understand how that works, especially if those numbers hold to the midterm elections.

我不懂這怎麼運作，特別是如果這些數字能維持到期中選舉的話。

Well, it may not be working as you look forward to the midterm election.

嗯，在你展望期中選舉時，這可能就沒那麼順利了。

So how have predictions changed about whether or not Democrats can take back Congress?

那關於民主黨能否重掌國會，預測有什麼變化呢？

Yeah, okay, so, you know, look, we've been talking about the House and pretty much every historical market, all the prediction markets, all the polling indicates that the Democrats are in the catbird seat when it comes back to taking back the House.

對，好的，所以，你知道，你看，我們一直在談論眾議院，幾乎所有的歷史市場，所有的預測市場，所有的民調都顯示，在重掌眾議院這件事上，民主黨處於絕對優勢。

But how about combining it with the United States Senate?

That is taking back the whole enchilada, taking back all of Congress.

這可是要贏得全部，贏得整個國會。

And what we see is the Democrats chance of doing that has been rising, rising, rising on a stairway to heaven, my dear friend.

我們看到民主黨贏得這一切的機會，一直在往上爬，往上爬，就像爬上天堂階梯一樣，我的朋友。

And what we see there is that Democrats at this particular point have been increasing those odds.

我們看到民主黨在這個時間點，已經在增加贏得這些機會的機率了。

It's not yet at 50%, but, but it is clearly rising.

還沒到 50%，但，但它明顯在上升。

And that is something I think is quite shocking because a lot of folks like myself thought Democrats would take back the House.

這點我覺得很令人震驚，因為很多人，包括我自己，都認為民主黨會重掌眾議院。

But the idea of taking back the Senate as well, well, that is a pretty big deal.

但如果連參議院也贏回來，嗯，那可是件大事。

I want to start with the political moment that we're in right now.

我想先從我們現在所處的政治時刻開始談起。

Look, I mean, President Trump campaigned and really rose to power against everything that we are seeing.

看看，我的意思是，川普總統的競選活動，以及他崛起的力量，與我們現在看到的一切都背道而馳。

And that is the beginning of his political challenge here.

這也是他在此面臨的政治挑戰的開端。

他競選時反對永無止境的戰爭。

He campaigned against the idea of this intervention in a way that supplants the America first thing.

他反對這種幹預的論調，認為這會取代「美國優先」的理念。

So now Republicans are left sort of scrambling to try and catch up and explain what is actually going on.

所以現在共和黨人有點手忙腳亂，試圖跟上並解釋到底發生了什麼事。

And really by the day, sometimes hour by hour, he's losing some support of key voices like Joe Rogan, for example, yesterday, who was very supportive of the president, raising serious questions about what the US Is doing there.

而且真的可以說是一天比一天，有時甚至是一小時比一小時，他正在失去一些關鍵人物的支持，像是喬·羅根（Joe Rogan）昨天，他先前非常支持總統，現在卻對美國在那裡的行動提出了嚴肅的問題。

And I think part of that is because President Trump still has really yet to explain in a coherent, a consistent view what the objectives are here.

我認為部分原因是因為川普總統仍然還沒能以一種連貫、一致的觀點來解釋這裡的目標是什麼。

They've sort of been all over the map when it's going to end, when it's not what the objectives are.

他們的說法總是變來變去，關於什麼時候會結束，什麼時候不會，以及目標是什麼。

So the administration also clearly is not necessarily helping him.

I mean, it's so striking the degree to which the Cabinet secretaries, for example, have been not necessarily consistent with their comments either.

我的意思是，這真的太令人震驚了，像是內閣部長們，他們的評論也並非總是保持一致。

Like the energy secretary, for example, Chris Wright, as the New York Times reported this morning and we've reported as well, I mean, he was essentially sending the signal that the gas prices, the oil prices, that's not going to be an issue here.

像是能源部長克里斯·萊特（Chris Wright），根據《紐約時報》今天早上和我們也報導的，他的意思是他基本上發出了個訊號，說油價、汽油價格在這裡不會是個問題。

Well, look, it absolutely is an issue here.

Even the cabinet did not appear prepared for what was to come.

就連內閣似乎也沒準備好迎接接下來會發生的事。

And of course, part of the challenge that this Cabinet has is following the bouncing ball.

而且當然，這個內閣面臨的挑戰之一，就是要跟上瞬息萬變的狀況。

And the bouncing ball seems to be what the president is saying and what his message is, never mind the actions at any given moment.

而這瞬息萬變的狀況，似乎就是總統說了什麼、他的訊息是什麼，至於實際行動則暫時不管了。

Our colleague David Goldman has terrific analysis on CNN.com this morning.

我們的同事大衛·高德曼（David Goldman）今天早上在CNN.com 上有很棒的分析。

The headline of his story is Trump Can't Taco out of the Iran War's Oil Price Shock.

他文章的標題是「川普無法迴避伊朗戰爭的油價衝擊」。

And he is talking about several realities here in talking to analysts.

他跟分析師們談話時，談到了幾個現實面。

A week or two, it could take a week or two to fully restore production.

可能需要一到兩週的時間才能完全恢復生產。

可能會面臨長達一個月或更長的瓶頸。

Returning the Strait of Hormuz to typical traffic could take one to three months.

荷姆茲海峽恢復正常交通可能需要一到三個月。

And these are conversations that he's had with various commodities experts and analysts.

這些都是他跟不同商品專家和分析師們的談話內容。

And I mean, there is nothing that Americans are more sensitive to right now than gas prices and affordability in general.

說真的，現在沒有什麼比油價和整體物價負擔能力更能讓美國人感到敏感了。

I mean, this is such a massive headache for the Trump administration in an election year.

說真的，這對川普政府來說，在選舉年是個超級大麻煩。

And it seems as though they really didn't expect there to be this amount of meddling that we're starting to see in this aggressive pushback from Iran.

而且他們似乎真的沒料到，伊朗會介入這麼深，還會出現這麼強勢的反擊。

And I don't know, you know, I don't think any of us know at this moment whether whatever their prompt, however quickly they're promising to make things go back to normal could actually happen.

我不知道，你們知道，我們現在誰都不知道，他們承諾的任何措施，不管他們說得有多快能讓事情恢復正常，到底能不能真的實現。

說真的，一切都充滿不確定性。

And that's going to really rattle Americans who are already not in support of this war.

這會讓那些本來就不支持這場戰爭的美國人更加不安。

And despite the bravado from the president, which he tends to do and feels like he needs to do to try to calm things down, what are you hearing from your Trump sources behind the scenes?

而且儘管總統擺出強硬姿態，這也是他常做的，感覺他需要這麼做來試圖平息事態，你從川普幕後的消息來源聽到了什麼？

He doesn't have an appetite for a long term war, at least according to my sources that I've talked to.

根據我接觸的消息來源，他並不熱衷於長期的戰爭。

He's looking for ways to sort of message, we've done this, we've done that, now it's time to leave.

他正在尋找方法來傳達訊息，我們做了這個，我們做了那個，現在是時候離開了。

The question is, as Maeve said, how much of that can he control?

問題是，正如梅芙所說，他能控制多少？

If he says we're out of here and then let's say the Iranians keep attacking with the missiles overdrawn, so they have left, what does a president do?

如果他說我們要撤離，然後假設伊朗人繼續用導彈攻擊，他們已經離開了，總統該怎麼辦？

He's obviously, you know, in a lot of ways the most powerful figure in the world.

很明顯，你知道，在很多方面，他是世界上最有權力的人物。

And some of these things are beyond his control.

而且有些事情是他無法控制的。

If you, if he watches the markets closely, you see, when he makes comments, when he wants the markets to sort of to go back up, he watches the markets closely, watches oil prices closely, he watches the MAGA supporters closely.

如果你，如果他密切關注市場，你會看到，當他發表評論時，當他希望市場能夠回升時，他會密切關注市場，密切關注油價，密切關注MAGA的支持者。

I mean, Joe Rogan, I can quite tell you the president notices that.

意思是，喬·羅根，我可以很肯定地告訴你，總統注意到了這一點。

He's watching voices, he's watching polling in his party, he's watching the midterms.

他在關注各種聲音，他在關注黨內的民調，他在關注期中選舉。

And I don't think he has an appetite for a long term, sustained conflict with Iran, at least according to what I'm told by folks inside the White House.

而且我不認為他有長期、持續與伊朗發生衝突的意願，至少根據我在白宮內部人士那裡聽到的消息是這樣。

And if you just look at the messaging from the people in the White House.

而且如果你看看白宮人士的說法。

I mean, I know Josh and everyone else approved these conversations too with White House officials, but

意思是，我知道喬許和所有其他人也準許了與白宮官員的這些談話，但是

for the last six months when we're talking about the economy, they would both publicly and privately tout gas numbers making up saying that these figures were down to $2,1 99 in some cases across the country, saying that even if some of the issues that they ran on weren't exactly where they wanted to, course blaming the Biden administration, gas prices were exactly there.

在過去六個月裡，當我們談論經濟時，他們都會公開和私下吹噓汽油價格，說這些數字在全國某些地方降到了2.199美元，說即使他們競選時提出的一些問題沒有完全達到他們想要的程度，當然會歸咎於拜登政府，但汽油價格確實在那裡。