Name: 退役將領解析伊朗戰爭第一週策略！ (Retired generals break down Iran war strategy after week 1)
Uploaded: 2026-03-10T16:47:48.000Z
Duration: 16 min 48 s

The Trump Doctrine is more like Silicon Valley.

Trump Doctrine 比較像是 Silicon Valley。

And it may work, but, boy, there's a lot on the other side that says it may not.

這或許會奏效，但另一邊也有很多人說可能不會。

We're eventually going to see a campaign like Israel used with Hezbollah slice at the top first.

我們最終會看到一場像以色列對付 Hezbollah 那樣，先從頂端下手。

But there does seem to be mostly coherent operations here from some, something that would look like a centralized command and control.

但這裡似乎有大部分是來自某種集中指揮和控制的連貫行動。

I don't think that's going to last much longer, though.

不過，我認為這種情況不會持續太久了。

The US As a nation, we tend to get bored with combat.

美國身為一個國家，我們傾向於對戰鬥感到厭倦。

So we will become bored, the nation will become bored with this.

所以我們也會感到厭倦，國家會對此感到厭倦。

President Trump said a couple days ago, and

rather absurdly, that there's an unlimited supply of missiles and interceptors and munitions, and

而且很荒謬地說，他們有無限的飛彈、攔截器和彈藥，

Now that they've got air superiority, they're moving to the second phase.

現在他們已經掌握了制空權，正進入第二階段。

They no longer, as General Kane said, have to go standoff now they're going stand in.

就像 Kane 將軍說的，他們不再需要遠距離攻擊，現在可以近距離作戰。

They don't have to use standoff capabilities.

他們不必使用遠距離作戰的能力。

They now can bring in the bulk of the aircraft in the bulk of the weapons and the bulk of the ammunition, which may be slower aircraft or have.

他們現在可以投入大量的飛機、大量的武器和大量的彈藥，這些可能是較慢的飛機或有。

If they have air supremacy, they're not worried about missiles being fired up.

如果他們擁有制空權，就不擔心會有飛彈射擊。

They can loiter over airspace and really pick their targets.

他們可以在空中盤旋，仔細挑選目標。

And they can bring in the B52, which can drop an awful lot of JDAMs.

而且他們可以派出 B52，一次投下大量的 JDAMs。

You know, obviously the Supreme Leader was killed.

大家都知道，最高領導人已經被殺了。

How decentralized right now is decision making?

目前決策的權力分散到什麼程度？

I think at the highest level it's all coming back together.

我認為最高層的決策權又重新集中了。

Ahmed Wahidi, who started the irgc, is now back running the IRGC Quds Force.

IRGC 的創始人 Ahmed Wahidi，現在又回到了 IRGC Quds Force 的領導崗位。

So I would suspect that we're eventually going to see a campaign like Israel used with Hezbollah slice at the top first.

所以我猜測，我們最終會看到一場類似以色列對付 Hezbollah 的行動，先從頂層開始瓦解。

But there does seem to be mostly coherent operations here from some.

但看起來確實有些地方的行動還算比較連貫。

Something that would look like a centralized command and control.

那種看起來像是中央集權指揮和控制的樣子。

不過我認為這種情況不會持續太久了。

Every time we listen to the broadcast President, there's something new.

每次我們聽總統廣播，都會有新東西。

And I think that's because there isn't a national security strategy that's being done.

我想這是因為沒有一個國家安全策略正在被執行。

There's no process that would make sure that everybody's on the same sheet of music.

也沒有一個能確保大家步調一致的流程。

And because that's not there, it means that the military is sort of figuring that out as it goes.

因為這些都沒有，所以就意味著軍方只能邊做邊摸索。

And I think if we listen To General Dan Kaine, it was clear what he said, which is prevent Iran from having the ability to project power outside of its borders.

我想如果我們聽 General Dan Kaine 的話，他講得很清楚，就是要阻止伊朗將勢力擴張到國境之外。

And everything else and everybody else has talked about has changed around the time.

而其他所有人和所有事所討論的，都隨著時間改變了。

But, but that's what hasn't changed is the ability to do that.

但是，但是這項能力（將勢力擴張到國境之外）是沒有改變的。

And then he says that ready for follow on actions as appropriate.

然後他說，準備好採取適當的後續行動。

So what we have is in the period leading up now, within the next four weeks or five weeks is a clash of wills.

所以我們現在接下來的幾週，大概四到五週內，將會是一場意志的較量。

And that's what's always the case in war.

It's the will of the American people and the President against the will of the Iranians.

這將是美國人民和總統的意志，對抗伊朗的意志。

And they're gonna go after whatever they can to force us to stop.

他們會盡一切可能來逼迫我們停止。

And that means going after the Gulf coast countries, going after economic assets that will force, that will force the Americans to say, no, we don't want to do this anymore.

這意味著要攻擊海灣國家，攻擊經濟資產，迫使美國說，不行，我們不想再這樣做了。

On the other hand, the Americans are going to do as much damage as they can and to force the Iranians to give up.

另一方面，美國人會盡可能造成損害，迫使伊朗放棄。

But I don't think we're going to be talking about regime change.

但我認為我們不會談論政權更迭。

There's a million people in arms in Iran and unless there's something we don't know about, there's some opposition force or some way to get guns to them, I just don't see how regime change is going to happen.

伊朗有百萬人武裝，除非有我們不知道的事情，有什麼反對力量，或者有辦法把槍枝送到他們手上，否則我看不到政權更迭要怎麼發生。

So I go back to what General Dan Kaine said, which is to ensure that Iran cannot harm its neighbors.

所以我回到 General Dan Kaine 所說的，就是要確保伊朗不能傷害他們的鄰國。

And that seems to be what they're trying to do.

The one thing we know about war is it is it's the most complex, dangerous and unpredictable activity undertaken by humans.

我們知道關於戰爭的一件事是，它是人類所進行過最複雜、最危險、最不可預測的活動。

And we have no idea what has happened once, as Trump has done, rolled the iron dice and gone to war.

而且我們不知道一旦像 Trump 所做的，擲出鐵骰子並發動戰爭後會發生什麼事。

Well, there is a lot of confusion too about just what those strikes have accomplished.

嗯，關於這些打擊到底達成了什麼，也有很多困惑。

And I understand partially that's the fog of war.

我明白，一部分是因為戰爭的迷霧。

It may just be that they aren't sure and they're still trying to figure it out.

也許只是他們自己也不確定，還在試圖弄清楚。

But you're looking at a situation though, General, which is on its face, untenable.

但將軍，你看到的情況，表面上看來是無法持續的。

When you mentioned the economic impacts, Right.

There's a certain amount of pain that can be taken before Western countries are not going to take it anymore.

在西方國家無法再忍受之前，他們能承受一定程度的痛苦。

When we talk about gas and oil, okay, we're not there yet, but

當我們談到汽油和石油時，好的，我們還沒到那一步，但是

when you're going to get there, you've got the world's busiest airport trying to open for a half an hour here and a half an hour there.

你們什麼時候會到那裡，你們有世界上最繁忙的機場，試圖在這裡開放半小時，那裡開放半小時。

You have a lot of situations that are untenable and the question is just how much time is left on the clock?

你們有很多情況是無法持續的，問題只是時間還剩下多少？

Who has the will to continue this longer?

The Iranians are also going through a terrible, terrible time losing their missiles, going after the leadership, but

伊朗人也正在經歷一段非常、非常糟糕的時期，失去他們的飛彈，攻擊領導層，但是

I don't know if there's anybody there to stop.

我不知道那裡有沒有人能阻止。

So it will continue to go until there's some way that somebody's will breaks in this.

所以這會一直持續下去，直到有人意志崩潰。

And this is only really in a couple of days.

Can you imagine after we go four weeks, what's the price of oil going to be?

你能想像，如果我們打了四週，油價會變成多少？

They that's what happens when there isn't an overarching strategy that goes in.

這就是當沒有一個總體戰略時會發生的事。

General Powell had this doctrine that said we're never going to go to war unless all these things are set to go.

鮑爾將軍有個原則，他說我們絕不會在這些條件都還沒準備好時就開戰。

And then there's the Pottery Barn which is if you break it, you own it.

然後還有個「Pottery Barn」原則，就是你弄壞了，你就得負責。

But I think the Trump doctrine is more like Silicon Valley.

但我覺得「Trump Doctrine」比較像「Silicon Valley」。

Move fast and break things, move fast and break things.

快速行動，打破事物，快速行動，打破事物。

And it may work, but boy, there's a lot on the other side that says it may not.

而且這或許可行，但天啊，另一邊也有很多說法認為這可能行不通。

New satellite images from several key military bases in the Arabian peninsula suggest that Iran may be trying to weaken regional air defenses by destroying U.

阿拉伯半島幾個重要軍事基地的最新衛星影像顯示，伊朗可能正試圖透過摧毀美國製的雷達來削弱區域防空能力，這些雷達是用來偵測來襲飛彈和無人機的。

S made radars used to detect incoming missiles and drones.

衛星影像顯示約旦、沙烏地阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯合大公國的雷達基地都遭到損壞。

Satellite images show damage to radar bases in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

我們來請教退休陸軍四星上將、前美國中央司令部指揮官 Joseph Votel 將軍。

Let's bring in retired army four star officer and former command four star general and former commander of U. S.

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退役將領解析伊朗戰爭第一週策略！ (Retired generals break down Iran war strategy after week 1)

essentially

eventually

strategy

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