Name: 伊朗戰爭：Enten 剖析美國「令人困惑的民調狀況」！ (Iran war: Enten unpacks the 'confusing polling picture' in US)
Uploaded: 2026-03-08T23:05:25.000Z
Duration: 8 min 1 s

Want to take a closer look at what the American public is thinking about what's going on in Iran.

想更深入瞭解美國民眾對伊朗現況的看法。

With us now seen in chief data analyst Harry yet.

現在跟我們一起的是首席資料分析師 Harry。

Yes, John, look, we've gotten a bunch of polling back since the US Military started its most recent action against Iran.

是的，John，你看，自從美國軍方對伊朗展開最新行動以來，我們收到了不少民意調查結果。

And you know what, it's a bit of a confusing picture.

你知道嗎，這情況有點令人困惑。

It doesn't seem like one at first, but it's a bit of a confusing polling picture.

一開始看起來不是這樣，但這民意調查的狀況確實有點混亂。

Let's just take a look right now at the overall average of polls, ok?

我們先來看看整體的平均民調數據，好嗎？

And you take an average of cnn, Fox, Ipsos and NBC polls.

你可以看看 CNN、Fox、Ipsos 和 NBC 的民調平均值。

What you see here is you see that the clear majority of Americans disapprove of the action we're talking about.

你在這裡看到的是，絕大多數美國人都不贊成我們正在討論的這個行動。

51% of Americans disapproved, just 40% approve.

51% 的美國人不贊成，只有 40% 贊成。

And I should note all these polls, all these polls came in between February 28th.

我要說明一下，這些民調，所有這些民調都是在 2 月 28 日之後的。

They started on February 28th and then ended by March 3rd.

它們從 2 月 28 日開始，然後在 3 月 3 日結束。

Now you see this, you see this 11 point split, but

現在你看到這個，你看到這個 11 個百分點的差距，但是

this actually hides some major disagreements between the different polls.

這其實隱藏了不同民調之間的一些重大分歧。

That's the approval rating minus the disapproval rating.

And this is the net approval rating for U.S. military action in Iran.

這就是美國軍方在伊朗行動的淨支持率。

CNN, our own CNN poll shows that the net approval rating is -18 points.

CNN，我們自己做的 CNN 民意調查顯示，淨支持率是負 18 點。

Very similar to the Ipsos polling at -16 points.

跟 Ipsos 的民意調查非常接近，是負 16 點。

But then all of a sudden you see the NBC News polling and look at this, you see it at minus 11 points, getting a little bit more popular.

但突然間你看到 NBC News 的民意調查，你看，是負 11 點，受歡迎程度稍微高了一點。

And then you'll look at the latest FOX News poll and that's it, a split, a dead even split at zero points.

然後你再看最新的 FOX News 民意調查，就這樣，平手，完全平手，零點。

So yes, on average the polling is showing that the move is unpopular, but

所以是的，平均來看，民意調查顯示這項行動不受歡迎，但是

that actually hides major disagreements between the polling and I should note the polling questions pretty similar and all conducted at about the same time.

這其實掩蓋了民意調查之間重大的分歧，我應該指出，民意調查的問題很相似，而且都是在差不多的時間進行的。

所以我不太確定到底發生了什麼事。

But there's another reason why, John, you should take these initial numbers right, with a grain of salt because I want to go back to the June airstrikes, right?

但是約翰，還有另一個原因，為什麼你應該對這些初步的數字有所保留，因為我想回到 6 月的空襲，好嗎？

NET approval rating, U.S. military action in Iran after the June airstrikes.

淨支持率，美國軍方在 6 月空襲後於伊朗的軍事行動。

Initially in late June, look at this underwater at minus 8 points.

最初在六月下旬，看看這個，淨支持率是負八。

After the military option was deemed successful, it became much more popular.

在軍事選項被認為成功後，它變得受歡迎多了。

Now we're just going to have to wait and see with this current military action in Iran how exactly the polling shifts.

現在我們只能等著看，這次在伊朗的軍事行動，民意調查到底會怎麼變化。

But right now I would really take the numbers with a grain of salt and keeping in mind that there's big polling disagreement and the numbers may change down the road.

但現在我真的會對這些數字保留一點，而且要記得，民意調查存在很大的分歧，數字未來可能會改變。

John back, Harry, thank you very much for that.

Yes, polling does often track what people think is a successful or not successful operation.

是的，民意調查確實常常反映人們認為某項行動是否成功。

One of the more interesting splits that we're seeing in the polling when it comes to the US Military action in Iran is that between the overall public and those who are either currently or have served in the military.

在美國軍方在伊朗的軍事行動的民意調查中，一個比較有趣的差異是，整體民眾和那些目前或曾經服役於軍方的人之間的看法。

Take a look at this Fox News poll that came out the during the past week.

看看這份上週出爐的 Fox News 民意調查。

Net approval rating of the current US Military action against Iran.

目前美國軍方對伊朗軍事行動的淨支持率。

Overall Fox News shows a dead even split.

整體來看，Fox News 顯示旗鼓相當。

But look at those who served in the military.

但看看那些曾經服役於軍方的人。

Significantly higher support for the US military action currently going on in Iran at plus 20 points.

對美國目前在伊朗的軍事行動，支持率明顯高出 20 個百分點。

That should not be so much of a surprise because take a look at how they view Trump's foreign policy overall.

這應該沒什麼好驚訝的，因為看看他們對川普外交政策的整體看法。

Again, look at those who served in the US Military versus overall.

再看看那些曾經服役於美國軍方的人，與整體民眾的對比。

If you look at Trump's foreign policy overall, the net approval rating on that per Fox News, those who served in the military, they like what's going on on average.

如果看看川普的外交政策整體來看，根據 Fox News 的淨支持率，那些曾經服役於軍方的人，平均來說，他們喜歡正在發生的事情。

Look at that, the net approval rating +8 points for Trump's foreign policy.

看看這個，川普外交政策的淨支持率是正 8 個百分點。

But look at those overall way, way down there at minus 20 points.

但看看整體民眾，遠遠低於負 20 個百分點。

We're talking about a nearly 30 point gap between those who served in the military and overall.

我們說的是，曾經服役於軍方的人和整體民眾之間，有將近 30 個百分點的差距。

And this split when it comes to those who served in the military and overall dates back to Trump's elections, all the way back to 2016.

而這種在曾服役軍人與整體民眾之間的差異，可以追溯到川普當選的時候，也就是 2016 年。

Those who served in the military, Trump won them by, get this, 31 points.

曾服役軍人這群人，川普贏了他們，請聽好，31 個百分點。

Kamala Harris actually won all other voters by two points.

賀錦麗（Kamala Harris）反而贏了所有其他選民兩個百分點。

And that means Johnny Berman, that means that Donald Trump only won in 2024 because of support from those who served in the military.

這就代表強尼柏曼（Johnny Berman），這就代表川普在 2024 年之所以能贏，全是因為曾服役軍人的支持。

Whatever happened to Trump when he ran on the campaign trail said that, you know, the whole MAGA thing, remember that make America great again.

川普在競選時說的那些話，還記得那個「讓美國再次偉大」的 MAGA 口號嗎？

It wasn't really supposed to be going after country after country after country.

其實並不是要一個國家又一個國家地去攻打。

I don't recall hearing that much on the campaign trail.

But just look at the number of targets, military actions in Trump's second term.

但看看川普第二任期內，軍事行動的目標數量。

There is, of course, Venezuela, Nigeria, Somalia.

當然還有委內瑞拉、奈及利亞、索馬利亞。

我的意思是，這個名單還長得很。

對，他當時是以孤立主義者的身分參選的。

And that's actually why I think he's getting a lot of support from Republicans on the Hill because this is this traditional neocon conservative belief of American interventionalism.

這也是為什麼我認為他在國會裡獲得許多共和黨人的支持，因為這是美國幹預主義的傳統新保守派信念。

And he's doing exactly that and going past beyond just your more than that neocon?

他確實這麼做了，而且遠遠超越了新保守派？

I think a lot of people will be surprised a year ago thinking to see this, what's happening right now?

我認為很多人一年前聽到現在發生的事，都會感到驚訝吧？

While the Trump administration is committed to the war with Iran, many Americans are not.

雖然川普政府對與伊朗的戰爭有所承諾，但許多美國人卻不是。

Demonstrators gathered in New York City, Washington D.C.

這週末，示威者聚集在紐約市、華盛頓特區、

los Angeles and San Francisco this weekend, calling on the White House to end the military action and pursue diplomacy with Iran.

洛杉磯和舊金山，呼籲白宮結束軍事行動，並與伊朗進行外交協商。

Instead, some Iranian American demonstrators shared their fears of a prolonged war, worried the conflict would drag on indefinitely.

然而，一些伊朗裔美國示威者分享了他們對長期戰爭的擔憂，害怕衝突會無限期地拖下去。

Many voice their relief that the Islamic regime and Ayatollah leadership may finally be at its end.

許多人表達了他們的欣慰，認為伊斯蘭政權和阿亞圖拉領導層可能終於走到盡頭了。

But others insist that any political change in Iran must come from the Iranian people themselves to be sustainable.

但也有人堅持認為，伊朗的任何政治變革都必須來自伊朗人民本身，才能持久。

The largest community of Iranian expatriates in the United States is rallying in Los Angeles.

美國最大的伊朗僑民社群正在洛杉磯集結。

So, Julia, how are people there reacting to the conflict?

所以，Julia，那邊的人們對這場衝突有什麼反應？

Well, John, like any diaspora, there is a fragmentation of ideas.

嗯，John，就像任何海外社群一樣，想法難免會有些分歧。

But today, what we saw here in the streets of Los Angeles was a celebration, truly.

但今天，我們在洛杉磯街頭看到的，真的是一場慶祝活動。

People are thanking President Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel for these strikes in Iran.

人們感謝川普總統和以色列的班傑明·納坦雅胡對伊朗發動的這次打擊。

They see this as a pivotal moment, an opportunity for the regime to fall.

他們認為這是個關鍵時刻，是政權垮臺的機會。

But we have spoken to a variety of people here in what is known as Terrangelis.

不過，我們採訪了在所謂的「Terrangelis」地區的許多人。

Almost the same time I'm fighting against this regime.

我幾乎在同一時間也在對抗這個政權。

I was an anti war activist, so that's very complicated.

我曾是個反戰人士，所以這很複雜。

Of course, from the killing of the Khamenei, I am excited.

當然，對於哈米尼被殺，我感到很興奮。

I cannot hide my feeling war with no harmony is better for everyone.

我無法隱藏我的感受，沒有和諧的戰爭對大家來說都更好。

But at the same time, I don't like the war.

但同時，我也不喜歡這場戰爭。

So you would rather see this be wrapped up and be done now?

所以你寧願看到這件事現在就結束，對嗎？

Declare the Victorian League President Trump, although we're thankful to have it, probably took him a little bit a long time and the Iranians lost a lot of lives.

維多利亞聯盟總統川普宣佈，雖然我們很感激，但這可能花了他很長時間，而且伊朗人也損失了許多生命。

I never had so much mixed feeling in my life that I have right now because on one level, I want my country to be free and liberated.

我這輩子從沒有過這麼複雜的心情，因為一方面，我希望我的國家自由解放。

On another level, I am very sad when I see so many people of my country are still.

另一方面，當我看到我國家有這麼多人仍然如此，我感到非常難過。

字幕列表影片播放

伊朗戰爭：Enten 剖析美國「令人困惑的民調狀況」！ (Iran war: Enten unpacks the 'confusing polling picture' in US)

enormous

average

conflict

campaign