Name: 伊朗前國防部長：伊朗恐「喪失抵抗能力」！ (Iran Could Be 'Rendered Defenseless' Says Former Defense Secretary)
Uploaded: 2026-03-02T21:35:33.000Z
Duration: 11 min 4 s

情態副詞

I think obviously the operation was more than just a decapitation operation.

我覺得很明顯，這次行動不只是一次decapitation operation。

It included taking down their air defenses, their ballistic missile launching capabilities, further degradation of their nuclear program.

它包含了摧毀他們的防空系統、彈道飛彈發射能力，以及進一步削弱他們的核武計畫。

And the, the coup de grace of this, I guess, is the decapitation part of it.

而我猜，這次行動的致命一擊，就是它的decapitation部分。

And yes, I look, I think that's always an option.

是的，我認為那永遠都是一個選項。

If you could take out the senior leadership of a foreign country, that can really knock out their ability to command, to communicate, to inspire their forces.

如果能除掉一個外國政府的高層領導，那真的能嚴重打擊他們指揮、溝通和激勵部隊的能力。

And so I think it was a risk worth taking.

所以我認為這是值得冒的風險。

The fact that not only taken out was Khamenei, but

also the defense minister, the head of the IRGC and Israel saying several dozen other senior commanders really could leave the state of Iran again, very destabilized, no clear chain of command and chaotic actions.

還有國防部長、IRGC的頭目，以及以色列說的幾十名其他高階指揮官，這真的可能讓伊朗國家再次變得非常不穩定，沒有明確的指揮鏈，並出現混亂的行動。

And we may be seeing some of that right now that they don't yet know how to respond, which is why they are lashing out at several Arab countries through the use of drones, through the use of ballistic missiles.

我們現在可能就看到一些跡象了，他們還不知道如何回應，這也是為什麼他們正透過無人機、彈道飛彈猛烈攻擊好幾個阿拉伯國家。

Secretary Esperant, let me ask you for your perspective on the timeline for what happens next here.

Esperant部長，讓我聽聽您對接下來時間表的看法。

And I imagine when you were in the Pentagon, there were scenario planning meetings in which you would have thought through what might happen if this were to come to pass, if the supreme leader were to die or be killed and the nation were to be thrust in this kind of uncertainty.

我想當您在五角大廈時，一定有過情境規劃會議，思考過如果這真的發生，最高領導人過世或被殺，國家陷入這種不確定性時，可能會發生什麼事。

How long do you think it's likely to take?

And as you look to other, other capitals, other places in the Middle east being brought into this, into this war, what does it tell you about the timeline?

當您看到中東其他國家、其他地方被捲入這場戰爭時，這對您來說，時間表大概是怎樣的？

Well, I think first of all, at the operational level, we know that President Trump has said this could go on for several days.

嗯，我認為首先，在作戰層級上，我們知道川普總統說過這可能會持續好幾天。

They've talked about a period of bombing and strikes with a pause to do bda, which is battle damage assessment.

他們談到一段轟炸和打擊的時期，然後暫停進行BDA，也就是戰損評估。

And did you hit the targets, did you destroy them or do you need to go back and double tap them?

你是否擊中了目標，是否摧毀了它們，或者你需要回去再補打一次？

So I think that continues for a few days, but

we will likely reach a point here fairly soon where the Iranians will have had so many ballistic missile launchers destroyed, missiles rendered incapacitated, that Israel United States will have free, unfurtered ability to fly over Iran and strike any targets as they want.

我們很可能很快就會達到一個階段，屆時伊朗的彈道飛彈發射器被摧毀、飛彈失效的數量太多，以色列和美國將能自由、不受阻礙地飛越伊朗，隨心所欲地打擊任何目標。

And I think that will come sooner rather than later.

It appears some of that's happening now because the air defenses just don't seem to be capable.

看起來有些情況已經在發生了，因為防空系統似乎根本不堪一擊。

So I think we'll reach out in a period of days which will render Iran relatively defenseless.

所以我認為我們會在幾天內達到一個階段，屆時伊朗將相對沒有防禦能力。

Then the question will be what else Does Iran try and do, for example, use.

那麼問題就會是，伊朗還會嘗試做些什麼，例如使用。

Activate their terror network around the world to include here in the United States?

啟用他們遍佈全球的恐怖網絡，包括在這裡的美國？

I think the bigger question, though, is politically is who is going to assume charge in the coming days.

我認為更大的問題是，在接下來的幾天裡，政治上誰將接管。

We know that Iran is appointed a, and it's constitutional, a three persons to run the country.

我們知道伊朗已經任命了，而且是憲法規定的，由三個人來管理國家。

In the interim, it's the head of the judiciary, the president, and a member of the Guardian Council.

在此過渡期間，由司法部長、總統和一位憲法監護委員會成員來負責。

But the important thing is who will succeed Ultimately, Khamenei.

但重要的是，最終誰將接替Khamenei。

Will it be a senior cleric that will preserve the theocracy?

會是一位資深教士來維持神權統治嗎？

Will it be a senior military commander from the IRGC that will try and establish the military as the foremost power, or will be somewhere a civilian who's not a cleric, who is in the Iranian system, more pragmatic?

會是一位來自IRGC的高階軍事指揮官，試圖建立軍隊作為首要勢力，還是會出現一位非教士的、在伊朗體系內更務實的文官？

I think we need to see all that play out in the coming days.

我覺得我們得在接下來幾天觀察這一切發展。

Right now, it seems like the clerics have the.

目前看來，教士們似乎佔了上風。

Have the edge because, you know, the constitutional process is being followed.

佔了上風，因為你知道，憲法程序正在被遵守。

Then I think, economically, we're all watching to see what they try and do with the Strait of Hormuz.

然後我覺得，經濟上，我們都在看他們會試圖對荷姆茲海峽做什麼。

Will they try and close it as a way to rattle oil markets, threaten their Arab neighbors and whatnot.

他們會試圖關閉它，以此來動搖油市、威脅他們的阿拉伯鄰國等等嗎？

And then lastly, diplomatically, it's interesting to see so many people sitting on the sidelines or not doing much.

最後，外交上，很有趣的是看到這麼多人袖手旁觀或沒做什麼。

I mean, obviously, Russia and China have protested American actions.

我是說，顯然，俄羅斯和中國已經抗議了美國的行動。

So when I look at these next few days, I look at those four pillars of how this may go.

所以當我展望接下來幾天，我會從這四個面向來看事情的發展。

Secretary, I'm wondering what you know about this kind of caretaker appointee that they've named this morning.

國務卿，我想知道您對今天早上他們任命的這位代理人有什麼瞭解？

我們對他的職位有什麼瞭解嗎？

That is not traditionally how that is done in Shia Islamic tradition, but it's unprecedented times.

雖然這在什葉派伊斯蘭傳統中並非慣例，但現在是前所未有的時期。

I mean, you mentioned they're following the Constitution.

我的意思是，您提到他們正在遵循憲法。

Is that really a succession plan that you think is durable given all the other factors, or are you afraid that we could end up with a power vacuum in Tehran?

考慮到所有其他因素，您認為這是一個穩固的繼承計畫嗎？還是您擔心我們最終會在德黑蘭出現權力真空？

First, of course, we know that Khamenei had identified a successor a couple of years ago, and

首先，當然，我們知道 Khamenei 幾年前就已經選定了繼任人選，

it was President Raisi who was killed in early 2024 in a helicopter crash, obviously unexpectedly.

而在 2024 年初，總統 Raisi 在一場直升機墜毀事故中不幸喪生，顯然是出乎意料的。

And he never publicly named a successor after that, although he supposedly privately listed three people that would be considered successors.

此後他從未公開點名繼任人選，儘管據說他私下列出了三位可能被考慮的繼任人。

People had often spoken within the country about his son, but

國內常有人談論他的兒子，但是

Khamenei did not want any type of hereditary leadership.

Khamenei 不希望有任何世襲領導。

To resume it would sound too much like the previous monarchy to the Iranian people.

否則對伊朗人民來說，聽起來太像之前的君主制了。

And of course, there's the grandson of the original, the first Ayatollah Khamenei, who is in the running as well.

當然，還有第一任 Ayatollah Khamenei 的孫子，他也在考慮名單上。

But we really don't know who these players are.

但我們真的不知道這些玩家是誰。

And again, it would depend on who is exercising more power.

再說一次，這將取決於誰掌握了更大的權力。

The clerics have charge under the constitutional system.

在憲政體制下，教士們負責掌權。

This will eventually go to the 88 member assembly of Experts, all of whom are clerics and all of whom must follow the or should follow the Constitution, which says that it must be a cleric who succeeds Khamenei.

這最終將交由 88 位成員組成的專家會議決定，他們都是教士，而且都必須遵守或應該遵守憲法，憲法規定繼任 Khamenei 的必須是教士。

But again, I think it depends on how these different power centers play out and interact over the coming days.

但我認為這又取決於這些不同的權力中心在未來幾天如何發展和互動。

We've also heard the name of former President Rouhani, who's the leader who negotiated the JCPOA with the Obama administration.

我們也聽說了前總統 Rouhani 的名字，他是在與 Obama 政府談判 JCPOA 的領導人。

Yeah, I think I put him more in that third category of not necessarily strongly associated with the IRGC or the clerics, but

是的，我認為他更屬於第三類，不一定與 IRGC 或教士們有緊密的聯繫，但

somebody who is a politician, who is maybe more pragmatic, maybe he's a cleric, but

一位政治人物，可能比較務實，也許是教士，但

So, again, that's one of the nodes that we've got to watch in terms of the power struggle internally.

所以，同樣地，這也是我們必須關注的內部權力鬥爭節點之一。

We talk about Iranians following their constitution.

我們談論伊朗人遵守他們的憲法。

I think there's a roiling debate here in the US about did the president follow the Constitution or follow his obligations to tell Congress what he was doing, indeed go to Congress for permission before doing this.

我認為美國這裡有一場激烈的辯論，關於總統是否遵守了憲法，還是遵守了他通知國會他正在做什麼的義務，甚至在做這件事之前徵求國會的許可。

We've seen that the Gang of Eight was briefed, I believe, by the Secretary of State, not the Secretary of Defense, on the night of the State of the Union.

我們看到，我相信是在國情諮文之夜，國務卿向八人小組進行了簡報，而不是國防部長。

There are reports now there's going to be a wider briefing for lawmakers today on, on Capitol Hill.

現在有報導說，今天在國會山上將會為立法者們進行更廣泛的簡報。

Did the president make a mistake, did the administration make a mistake by not going to Congress in advance of these significant strikes?

總統犯錯了嗎？政府在這些重大打擊之前沒有去國會犯錯了嗎？

I mean, look, we, we all know the Iranian profile case very well.

我是說，你看，我們，我們都很清楚伊朗的案例。

You know, I've been, since going, being in D.C.

in the mid-90s, I've been following the Iranians and all the ups and downs and the pursuit of NUC Richmond and, and

在九零年代中期，我就一直在關注伊朗人，以及他們追求核武計畫和

their proxy terror network throughout the region.

在整個地區的代理人恐怖網絡。

Lawmakers on Capitol Hill understand this regime very well.

國會的立法者們對這個政權非常瞭解。

We do know that Marco Rubio was up testifying before Congress last week or the week before, most likely was asked about the regime.

我們確實知道 Marco Rubio 上週或前週在國會作證，很可能被問到關於這個政權的事。

He did go to the Gang of Eight, which was a smart thing to do during my time when we killed Soleimani we did the same thing.

他確實去了八人小組，這在我任內是明智之舉，當時我們擊斃了 Soleimani，我們也做了同樣的事。

I did the same thing speaking to the Gang of Eight, but also the Armed Services Committee.

我同樣向八人小組，以及軍事委員會進行了說明。

So they're going through the right motions.

I would want to, obviously, see more from the President and his Cabinet coming out and speaking directly to the American people.

我當然希望看到總統和他的內閣能有更多直接對美國人民發聲的機會。

I think that would help explain where this is going, the whys, the what's and hows and whens.

我認為這有助於解釋事情的走向、原因、內容、方法和時間點。

And then obviously there will be congressional hearings.

I went through the same thing after the Soleimani strikes, where the Cabinet can get into more detailed classified discussions with the Congress concerning what they saw, what they believed to be the emerging threats, maybe the Iranian pursuit of their nuclear program.

在擊斃蘇雷曼尼之後，我也經歷了類似的情況，內閣可以與國會進行更詳細的機密討論，說明他們所見、他們認為的新興威脅，以及伊朗追求核武計畫的進展。

All these things will play out over time, but I think right now they're in good stead.

這些事情都會隨著時間慢慢明朗，但我認為現在他們處於有利的地位。

The President certainly has the authority under Article 2 of the Constitution.

總統當然擁有憲法第二條賦予的權力。

And the question will be is how long does this drag on?

And I think if it drags on, that's where more questions will be asked about coming to Congress, requesting authorization, implementation of the War Powers act, which, of course, is contested by the executive.

我認為如果拖延下去，就會有更多關於向國會尋求授權、實施《戰爭權力法》的問題被提出，當然，這也是行政部門所爭議的。

但所有這些事情都會慢慢展開。

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伊朗前國防部長：伊朗恐「喪失抵抗能力」！ (Iran Could Be 'Rendered Defenseless' Says Former Defense Secretary)

eventually

process

opportunity

period