Name: 烏克蘭俄羅斯日內瓦會談為何只是為川普演的一齣戲？| DW (Why the Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva are just a show for Donald Trump | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-02-17T23:20:33.000Z
Duration: 9 min 31 s

Negotiators from the United States, Russia and Ukraine are in Geneva today to discuss a peace deal in Ukraine.

美國、俄羅斯和烏克蘭的談判代表今天在日內瓦討論烏克蘭的和平協議。

After two rounds of previous meetings in Abu Dhabi produced no substantive results, US President Donald Trump's been pressuring Ukraine, but

在阿布達比的兩輪會議都沒有實質性結果後，美國總統唐納·川普一直在向烏克蘭施壓，但

程度副詞

not Russia, to reach a deal, even though the two sides are still far apart on critical issues, fighting on the front lines and beyond.

並沒有對俄羅斯施壓，要求達成協議，儘管雙方在關鍵問題上仍有很大差距，前線及其他地方的戰鬥仍在繼續。

Russia continues to knock out key parts of Ukraine's energy infrastructure in the dead of winter.

在隆冬時節，俄羅斯持續摧毀烏克蘭能源基礎設施的關鍵部分。

Ukraine fighting back with drone attacks on Russian oil refineries.

烏克蘭則以無人機襲擊俄羅斯煉油廠進行反擊。

Nearly four years after Russia's full scale invasion, the war in Ukraine rages on.

在俄羅斯全面入侵近四年後，烏克蘭的戰爭仍在激烈進行。

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky paints a grim picture of his country's vulnerability.

烏克蘭總統弗拉迪米爾·澤倫斯基描繪了他國家脆弱性的嚴峻景象。

Several more cold days lie ahead, and we've all seen how Russia takes advantage of this.

未來還有好幾天寒冷的天氣，我們都看到俄羅斯如何利用這一點。

We remain in constant communication with all our partners, emphasizing that every such threat only worsens the overall chances of ending this war.

我們持續與所有夥伴保持密切溝通，強調任何這類的威脅只會讓結束這場戰爭的整體機會變得更糟。

The front line has barely moved in the last two years.

過去兩年來，前線幾乎沒有移動。

Russia continues to lose thousands of soldiers every month for tiny gains.

俄羅斯每個月仍然損失數千名阿兵哥，卻只換來微小的進展。

There's no reliable, independently verified data available, but

雖然沒有可靠的獨立驗證數據，

the center for Strategic and International Studies says Russia has incurred 1.2 million casualties since the war began and that Ukraine has lost at least 500,000 soldiers in that time.

但戰略與國際研究中心表示，自戰爭開始以來，俄羅斯已造成一百二十萬人傷亡，而烏克蘭在這段時間內至少損失了五十萬名阿兵哥。

The total overall casualties could reach 2 million this spring.

總體傷亡人數可能在今年春天達到兩百萬。

Despite Russia's slow advance, US President Donald Trump is impatient to end the conflict by encouraging Ukraine to make concessions.

儘管俄羅斯緩慢推進，美國總統唐納·川普已不耐煩，他鼓勵烏克蘭做出讓步來結束衝突。

Russia wants to make a deal and Zelensky is going to have to get moving, otherwise he's going to miss a great opportunity.

俄羅斯想達成協議，而澤倫斯基得趕快行動，否則他將錯失一個絕佳的機會。

Russia's announced demands have not publicly changed in years.

俄羅斯公開提出的要求多年來都沒有改變。

It wants international recognition that the territory it has seized is now Russian.

它想要國際承認它所佔領的領土現在屬於俄羅斯。

Moscow wants strict limits on Ukraine's military, an end to its efforts to join NATO, and

莫斯科希望對烏克蘭的軍事力量設下嚴格限制，結束其加入北約的努力，並且

what it calls denazification, claiming that Zelenskyy is an illegitimate president and should be replaced in an election.

進行所謂的「去納粹化」，聲稱澤倫斯基總統是非法的，應該在選舉中被替換。

For its part, Ukraine wants a ceasefire before discussing territory.

烏克蘭方面則希望在討論領土問題之前先達成停火。

It insists that Russia pay hundreds of billions of euros in compensation for damages caused by the it wants security guarantees from the west and it demands the return of thousands of prisoners of war and of children allegedly abducted in the early days of the conflict and sent to Russia.

它堅持俄羅斯必須為衝突造成的損害賠償數千億歐元，並要求西方國家提供安全保證，同時要求歸還數千名戰俘以及據稱在衝突初期被綁架並送往俄羅斯的兒童。

One major sticking point is Russia's demand that Ukraine hand over the 20% of the Donbas region that it still controls.

一個主要的僵局是俄羅斯要求烏克蘭交出頓巴斯地區仍由其控制的20%。

Ukraine says that's a non starter and that it would have to hold a referendum to change the constitution to break up Ukraine's territorial integrity.

烏克蘭表示這不可能，並且如果改變憲法來分裂烏克蘭的領土完整，必須舉行公投。

However, Zelensky has also said that talks over territory could happen if a ceasefire is in place.

然而，澤倫斯基也曾表示，如果達成停火，可以就領土問題進行談判。

He's also said that Ukraine could hold elections again if there's a ceasefire.

他也曾表示，如果達成停火，烏克蘭可以再次舉行選舉。

This may be an effort to show Trump that Zelenskyy is serious about making concessions.

這可能是為了向川普表明，澤倫斯基是認真考慮做出讓步的。

But the worry for Ukraine and Europe is that Trump will push Kyiv into an unfavorable deal.

但烏克蘭和歐洲的擔憂是，川普會逼迫基輔接受一個不利的協議。

And if Ukraine refuses, Trump might withdraw military support, which could make it much harder to hold off Russian advances.

而如果烏克蘭拒絕，川普可能會撤回軍事支援，這會讓抵擋俄羅斯的進攻變得更加困難。

Let's get more on today's talks and with DW's Nick Connolly in Kyiv and Yuri Richetto in Riga from where he's been reporting since Russian authorities closed down Moscow Bureau.

我們來聽聽今天談判的更多消息，以及在拉脫維亞里加的DW記者Nick Connolly，他自從俄羅斯當局關閉莫斯科辦事處以來，一直在當地報導。

Let's start with Kyiv's goals and red lines going into these talks.

我們先從基輔在這次談判中的目標和紅線開始談起。

Phil, I think this is about creating images, creating a narrative for one person that is Donald Trump.

Phil，我認為這是在為一個人，也就是唐納·川普，塑造形象、創造敘事。

This is about showing that Ukraine is open to dialogue, that Ukraine is not the, the issue, not the blocking partner in any negotiations.

這是為了展現烏克蘭對對話持開放態度，烏克蘭並非任何談判中的問題點或阻礙方。

But there is no great expectation of any progress here.

但這裡並沒有對任何進展抱持太大的期望。

There is no sense here in Kyiv that Ukraine is going to get anything from Russia that Russia is willing to, to change in any significant way its approach to this.

基輔這裡並沒有感覺到烏克蘭會從俄羅斯那裡得到任何東西，俄羅斯願意以任何重大方式改變其做法。

They are still convinced that Russia wants to keep on taking territory.

他們仍然深信俄羅斯想繼續奪取領土。

In terms of red lines, I think handing over territory that Ukraine still controls is not something that is palatable.

就紅線而言，我認為交出烏克蘭仍控制的領土是無法接受的。

Even if President Zelensky wanted to, he would likely have large numbers of people out on the streets, not least people who've been in uniform fighting to keep that territory.

即使澤倫斯基總統想這麼做，街頭也會有大批民眾抗議，更別提那些曾穿著軍服奮力保衛領土的人們了。

I think what Ukraine can offer is a cease fire along the current front lines to say, okay, we'll just freeze this where it is right now.

我認為烏克蘭可以提供的，是沿著目前戰線停火，然後說，好吧，我們就暫時凍結在這裡。

We will recognize Russian control de facto, not to euro.

我們將承認事實上的俄羅斯控制，而非歐洲。

We're not going to legalize that Russian control of Crimea, of Donetsk, of parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, but

我們不會讓俄羅斯對克里米亞、頓內茨克、赫爾松和扎波羅熱部分地區的控制合法化，但

That is something that Ukraine can offer, but

it doesn't seem from Ukraine's perspective like that is something that Russia will in any way accept.

從烏克蘭的角度來看，這似乎不是俄羅斯會接受的。

Nick says that Ukraine's not expecting Russia's demands to change.

Nick 說烏克蘭並不期待俄羅斯的條件會改變。

They haven't pretty much throughout this, this war.

在這場戰爭中，他們幾乎一直都是這樣。

Is there any reason to think that today might be, it might be different?

有任何理由認為今天會有所不同嗎？

I don't expect much flexibility, flexibility from the Russians today either, judging by their delegation.

從他們的代表團來看，我也不預期俄羅斯今天會有什麼彈性。

Phil, Moscow is sending obviously Vladimir Medinsky to Geneva, one of Putin's advisers He's not a senior military figure or a security official.

Phil，莫斯科顯然派了普丁的顧問之一 Vladimir Medinsky 前往日內瓦，他不是資深軍官或安全官員。

He's a historian and a former culture minister.

他是一位歷史學家，也是前文化部長。

The last rounds of talks were led by top military officials, including the head of military intelligence.

上幾輪的談判是由包括軍情局局長在內的資深軍官帶領的。

And they dealt with sensitive issues like territory, which many saw as a sign of progress.

而且他們處理了領土等敏感問題，許多人認為這是進展的跡象。

He also led the istanbul talks in 2022 and again in 2025, and

他也主持了 2022 年和 2025 年的伊斯坦堡會談，而且

According to media reports, instead of addressing concrete issues, he gave long historical lectures about the supposedly Russian Donbass.

根據媒體報導，他沒有處理具體問題，反而就所謂的俄羅斯頓巴斯地區發表了冗長的歷史講座。

At the time, President Zelensky called the Russian delegation decorative.

當時，澤倫斯基總統稱俄羅斯代表團是裝飾性的。

We might see the same thing happen today.

我們今天可能會看到同樣的情況發生。

If they are so decorative, if their demands don't change.

如果他們這麼裝飾性，如果他們的要求沒有改變。

Why are the Russians in Geneva today most likely to pretend they are ready to negotiate and want peace?

俄羅斯人今天在日內瓦最有可能的目的是假裝他們準備好談判並想要和平嗎？

We don't know whether Putin actually wants to end the war.

我們不知道普丁是否真的想結束戰爭。

Some political scientists say he never expected it to drag on this long, but

有些政治學家說，他從沒想過會拖這麼久，但是

now that it has, he benefits from it because it helps him keep pushing his narrative about the evil West.

既然已經拖了這麼久，他反而能從中獲益，因為這有助於他繼續推動關於邪惡西方國家的說法。

According to the independent Levada center, attitudes toward the US and the EU are extremely negative.

根據獨立的Levada中心，對美國和歐盟的態度極度負面。

In Russia, only about 16 to 17% of Russians blame Ukraine for the war.

在俄羅斯，只有大約16%到17%的俄羅斯人將戰爭歸咎於烏克蘭。

Meanwhile, roughly 70%, 70.2 NATO and about 80% blame the US and only 6 to 8% say Russia itself is.

同時，大約70%、70.2%的北約成員國以及大約80%的人將戰爭歸咎於美國，只有6%到8%的人認為是俄羅斯自己。

In other words, most Russians completely shifted the blame away from themselves.

換句話說，大多數俄羅斯人完全將責任推卸給了自己。

Politically, this war is actually quite convenient for Putin.

從政治上來說，這場戰爭對普丁來說其實非常方便。

Okay, so Nick Connolly, you both agreed that both sides are putting on a show for Donald Trump.

好的，Nick Connolly，你們兩位都同意雙方都在演戲給唐納·川普看。

Tell us about the sort of pressure the Trump administration is putting on Kiev behind the scenes.

跟我們說說川普政府在幕後對基輔施加了什麼樣的壓力。

Well, we certainly just heard Donald Trump there once again piling on the pressure, saying it was basically for Zelensky to do a deal and the Russians were open to doing one.

嗯，我們剛剛確實又聽到了唐納·川普在施壓，說基本上是為了讓澤倫斯基達成協議，而俄羅斯方面也願意。

That is something that Ukraine's been hearing since Donald Trump came back to the White House last year.

自從唐納·川普去年重返白宮以來，烏克蘭一直聽到這樣的說法。

I think what has changed, though, is that US Kind of ability to put pressure, that leverage is actually a lot smaller.

我覺得不一樣的地方是，美國施壓的能力，那種籌碼其實小了很多。

Because effectively, Donald Trump has pulled the plug on military aid for Ukraine.

因為實際上，唐納·川普已經斷了對烏克蘭的軍事援助。

Any US Supplies now arriving in Ukraine are for cash, and

現在運到烏克蘭的任何美國物資都是要付現的，而且

that is usually European cash or Ukrainian cash.

通常是歐洲的錢，或是烏克蘭自己的錢。

So it is not like there is still a lot of kind of fat that he can take away.

所以也不是說他還有很多可以再拿走的籌碼。

Ukraine is still getting some intelligence from the US but also getting lots of satellite information, as we've heard from European countries, notably France and the UK So in a way, there is less that he can take away.

烏克蘭還是有收到美國的一些情報，但也收到很多衛星資訊，就像我們從歐洲國家聽到的，特別是法國和英國。所以某種程度上，他能拿走的就更少了。

In a hurry to really make things difficult for the Ukrainians.

急著讓烏克蘭的處境變得更困難。

Obviously, you know, when it comes to things like air defense, Patriot missile systems, if somehow the Americans were to make it more difficult or slow down deliveries of inceptor missiles that are being bought for Ukraine, that is obviously something that will be very damaging to Ukraine.

很明顯，你知道，像是在防空方面，愛國者飛彈系統，如果美國人讓運送烏克蘭正在購買的攔截飛彈變得更困難或延遲交貨，那顯然會對烏克蘭造成很大的傷害。

But I'm not sure if Trump can get away with that politically.

但我不太確定川普在政治上能不能這樣做。