Name: 西方軍隊進駐烏克蘭，會對莫斯科造成多大嚇阻？ | DW 新聞 (How much of a deterrent would Western troops on the ground in Ukraine be for Moscow? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-01-07T17:00:11.000Z
Duration: 18 min 59 s

情態副詞

Well, this shift in US Security policy towards the Western Hemisphere could have global implications, especially for European defense and the war in Ukraine.

不過，美國安全政策轉向西半球，這可能會對歐洲防務和烏克蘭戰爭產生全球性的影響。

程度副詞

Almost four years into Russia's full scale invasion, the US President is pushing for a peace deal.

在俄羅斯全面入侵將近四年後，美國總統正在推動一項和平協議。

Ukraine and its European allies say that any ceasefire agreement needs to include robust security guarantees for Ukraine.

烏克蘭及其歐洲盟友表示，任何停火協議都需要包含對烏克蘭的穩健的安全保障。

Otherwise, they fear, Russia could launch a new attack.

否則，他們擔心，俄羅斯可能會發動新的攻擊。

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been meeting with key European allies and top US Envoys in Paris today.

烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基今天在巴黎會見了主要歐洲盟友和美國高級特使。

But Trump's actions in Venezuela have raised questions about whether the US could soon completely turn its attention away from Ukraine and European security.

但川普在委內瑞拉的行動引發了疑問，美國是否很快就會完全轉移對烏克蘭和歐洲安全的注意力。

All right, Joining me Now from Washington, D.C. is Kurt Volker.

好的，現在加入我們在華盛頓特區的是 Kurt Volker。

He was the U.S. special representative to Ukraine during.

他在任職期間曾擔任美國駐烏克蘭特別代表。

伏爾克先生，很高興再次見到您。

A Macron adviser described today's talks as the culmination of efforts to prevent the United States from abandoning Ukraine.

馬克宏總統的一位顧問形容今天的會談是為阻止美國放棄烏克蘭所做的努力的頂峰。

I wouldn't quite phrase it that way, but I understand why the French advisor might.

我不會完全這樣說，但我明白法國顧問為何會這麼想。

I see this more as a way of consolidating European efforts to provide more leadership in providing security for Ukraine.

我認為這更多是鞏固歐洲努力，讓歐洲在為烏克蘭提供安全方面扮演更重要的領導角色。

I don't think that President Trump is going to walk away from Ukraine.

我不認為川普總統會拋棄烏克蘭。

He's made this a very high priority since the first day of his administration, urging all sides to make peace.

自上任第一天起，他就將此視為一項高度優先的任務，敦促各方達成和平。

I don't agree with everything he's done and the way he's gone about it, but

我不同意他所做的一切以及他的做法，但是

this is clearly very important to President Trump.

這對川普總統來說顯然非常重要。

One of the things that he has done is tried to get Europe to shoulder more of the burden in handling European security matters.

他所做的一件事就是試圖讓歐洲在處理歐洲安全事務方面承擔更多責任。

Look, for instance, at the Hague summit of NATO where he urged European countries to spend 5% of GDP on defense or getting European nations to buy American weapons to provide them to Ukraine, rather than it being provided by US Taxpayers.

看看，例如，北約海牙峰會，他敦促歐洲國家將 GDP 的 5% 用於國防，或者讓歐洲國家購買美國武器提供給烏克蘭，而不是由美國納稅人提供。

So he's been urging Europe to step up and do more.

所以他一直在敦促歐洲加強並做更多。

And I think this coalition of the Willing Summit is demonstrating how Europe is doing exactly that.

我認為這次「有決心者聯盟」峰會就證明瞭歐洲正在這樣做。

We know that President Trump wanted Ukraine, and I'm quoting here, done by Thanksgiving.

我們知道川普總統希望烏克蘭，我在此引用，「在感恩節前結束」。

How badly does that timeline clash with what European leaders are trying to achieve, which is long term deterrence rather than a quick deal?

這個時間表與歐洲領導人試圖實現的長期威懾而非快速達成協議的目標有多大衝突？

Yeah, well, he's been saying all along he wants a quick deal.

是的，嗯，他一直說他想要一個快速的協議。

He was gonna do this in one day, he was gonna do it in 100 days, he was gonna do it by the 4th of July.

他本來要在一天內完成，他本來要在 100 天內完成，他本來要在七月四日前完成。

The reality is this war continues because Vladimir Putin wants it to.

現實是這場戰爭持續下去，是因為普丁想讓它繼續。

Vladimir Putin wants to take over Ukraine, and

so far, nothing has convinced him that he will never succeed.

到目前為止，沒有任何事能讓他相信他永遠不會成功。

當然，話雖如此，我們可以阻止普丁。

We can convince him that it is not worth the effort.

我們可以讓他相信這樣做不值得。

It's going to take more things like this, more military capacity put on the table, a demonstration he will never win militarily.

這需要更多像這樣的行動，拿出更多軍事能力，讓他明白他永遠無法在軍事上獲勝。

It's also going to take more financial pressure drying up the oil and gas revenue that the Kremlin still gets, including from Europe, to pay for this war effort.

這也需要更多的財政壓力，讓克里姆林宮仍然獲得的石油和天然氣收入枯竭，包括來自歐洲的收入，來支付這場戰爭的開銷。

So there's a lot more we can do to accelerate, needing a cease fire that we can do to shorten that timeline.

所以我們還有很多事可以做來加速，需要一個我們可以做到的停火協議來縮短這個時間表。

But it is right now still a very long timeline because Putin believes he can still prevail.

不過，現在時間表仍然很長，因為普丁認為他仍然可以獲勝。

I want to come back to Vladimir Putin in just a moment, but

I want to ask you about what we've seen in the past few days.

我想問你關於我們這幾天看到的情況。

President Trump obviously sees the intervention in Venezuela and the detention of Nicolas Maduro as a complete success.

川普總統顯然認為介入委內瑞拉並拘留馬杜羅是個完全的成功。

How do you see that affecting his attitude towards Ukraine?

你認為這會如何影響他對烏克蘭的態度？

Well, it's interesting and he's even said a couple of things since then.

嗯，這很有趣，他從那之後還說了幾件事。

One of them, he made a rather derisive comment about Putin saying that he had lied to him and lied to him about Ukrainian drones striking his house.

其中一件事，他對普丁發表了相當嘲諷的評論，說他騙了他，而且騙了他關於烏克蘭無人機襲擊他家的事情。

He also was very critical of the Russian military and made a contrast of the American military going in in three hours and accomplishing their objective, while Russia has been attacking Ukraine for four years and everybody just dies, whereas no one on the US Side was killed in this operation in Venezuela.

他也非常批評俄羅斯軍隊，並將美軍在三小時內進入並達成目標，而俄羅斯已經攻擊烏克蘭四年，所有人都死了，但這次在委內瑞拉的行動中沒有美國人死亡，做了對比。

Now, the danger signal in all of this is Trump's assertion of a sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere, saying this is ours to deal irrespective of anyone else's interest.

現在，這一切的危險信號是川普聲稱在西半球擁有影響力範圍，說這是我們的地盤，與任何人的利益無關。

And here Putin will likely make a similar claim about Ukraine, that that is Russia's sphere of interest.

而在這裡，普丁很可能會對烏克蘭提出類似的主張，認為那是俄羅斯影響力的範圍。

I hope that the United States and European allies firmly reject such an assertion by Putin.

我希望美國和歐洲盟友能堅決拒絕普丁這種說法。

It is an independent sovereign state and not something just to be divvied up.

這是一個獨立的主權國家，不是可以隨意瓜分的。

You know, you talk about spheres of influence.

你知道，你提到了影響力範圍。

That brings us to a quote from about six years ago.

這讓我們想到大約六年前的一段引述。

The former Trump adviser on Russia, Fiona Hill, she testified to Congress in 2019 that Russia informally offered to end its support for Venezuela in exchange for US acquiescence on Ukraine.

前美國總統川普的俄羅斯顧問 Fiona Hill 在 2019 年向國會作證時表示，俄羅斯曾非正式地提議結束對委內瑞拉的支持，以換取美國在烏克蘭問題上的默許。

Volcker 先生，您知道這件事嗎？

And is that what we're seeing play out right now?

Well, yes, I was aware of that at the time.

嗯，是的，我當時知道這件事。

And of course, the Trump administration at that time was very much against that.

當然，當時的川普政府非常反對這件事。

It's A different administration now, but at the time, we were very much against that.

現在是不同的政府了，但當時我們非常反對。

And no, I don't think it's what we're seeing play out now, because you're seeing the US Assert its own sphere of influence, irrespective of Russia supporting Maduro, trying to get one of their shadow fleet vessels out of there, having military advisors there, having Cuban military advisors there, having condemned this invasion, this seizure of the Venezuelan president.

不，我不認為這就是我們現在看到的局面，因為你看到美國正在主張自己的勢力範圍，不管俄羅斯支持馬杜羅，試圖讓他們的影子艦隊船隻之一離開，在那裡有軍事顧問，有古巴軍事顧問，譴責這次入侵，這次對委內瑞拉總統的奪權。

And President Trump has ignored all of those Russian complaints and comments.

川普總統無視了所有俄羅斯的抱怨和評論。

So rather than being a deal, this is Trump acting very much unilaterally.

所以這不是一項協議，而是川普非常單方面地行動。

Well, I know that you have said that Vladimir Putin has not given in on anything when it comes to Ukraine ever since the beginning of the war.

嗯，我知道你曾說過，自從烏克蘭戰爭開始以來，普丁在烏克蘭問題上從未讓步。

But he really wouldn't have an incentive to give in on anything if he expects this to be his reality.

但如果他預期這將是他現實的一部分，他確實沒有任何理由讓步。

Venezuela for the US And Ukraine for Russia.

美國的委內瑞拉，俄羅斯的烏克蘭。

Remember, he didn't invade Ukraine because of US Policy or European policy.

記住，他入侵烏克蘭並不是因為美國政策或歐洲政策。

他入侵烏克蘭是出於他自己的理由。

He wanted to take it over to eliminate Ukraine as a national identity, to eliminate Ukraine as a sovereign and independent state.

他想把它併吞，以消除烏克蘭的國家認同，消除烏克蘭作為一個主權獨立的國家。

他做這一切都是出於他自己的理由。

Now, he will try to assemble arguments to make those actions look justified, but

現在，他會試圖匯集論點，讓這些行動看起來有正當性，但

that doesn't mean those arguments are relevant at all.

這並不代表那些論點有任何相關性。

He's doing this because that is his overall desire.

他這麼做是因為這是他整體的願望。

And I don't think the president, President Trump's action in Venezuela will change Putin's calculus in any way.

我不認為川普總統在委內瑞拉的行動會以任何方式改變普丁的盤算。

Excuse me, does Venezuela reinforce President Trump's belief that foreign policy problems can be solved quickly?

請問，委內瑞拉的事件會不會加深川普總統認為外交難題可以快速解決的信念？

I mean, does it make him less patient with Ukraine's slower and riskier negotiations?

也就是說，這會讓他對烏克蘭較慢且風險較高的談判失去耐心嗎？

Well, it's yet to be seen because what we have seen so far with Venezuela is a couple of days that seems to have been successful, a very clean snatch and grab operation to get Maduro and bring him to a court in the US and the vice president of Venezuela stepping in to maintain continuity of government there.

嗯，這還有待觀察，因為到目前為止我們看到委內瑞拉的事件，似乎是成功地進行了一次乾淨俐落的突襲行動，將馬杜羅逮捕並帶到美國法院，而委內瑞拉副總統則介入以維持政府的延續。

But we haven't seen how this plays out over a few months.

但我們還沒看到這在幾個月後會如何發展。

Do they have an internal strife that becomes more and more unstable, perhaps even bloody, that the US Is responsible for?

他們內部會出現越來越不穩定，甚至可能流血的衝突，而美國要為此負責嗎？

We just haven't seen how this is going to play out yet.

我們只是還沒看到這將如何發展。

As for Ukraine, the president has been very clear.

至於烏克蘭，總統已經說得很清楚了。

He thinks that Russia's operation from the beginning was a disaster.

他認為俄羅斯的行動從一開始就是一場災難。

They should have, as the Biden administration said, and

拜登政府說過，川普後來也這麼說，他們本來應該幾天內就攻下基輔。

Trump later said, they should have taken Kyiv in a couple of days.

而現在四年來，他們都無法成功發動軍事行動，這顯示了俄羅斯立場的弱點，相對而言，也突顯了美國軍隊的相對強大和有效性。

And now for four years, they've been unable to mount a successful military operation, which shows really the weakness of Russia's position and by contrast, the relative strength and effectiveness of the US Military.

在我們時間結束前，我想問你，烏克蘭是否已經超越了不再是川普總統首要外交政策的觀點？

Let me ask you before we run out of time, has Ukraine crossed the point where it is no longer President Trump's top foreign policy deal perspective?

如果是這樣，停火後對烏克蘭的安全意味著什麼？

And if so, what does that mean for Ukraine's security after a ceasefire?

嗯，我不認為川普總統只會將自己侷限於一個優先事項或一個協議。

Well, I don't think President Trump limits himself to just one priority or one deal.

他一直在談論他想結束的九場戰爭，並為自己迄今為止的八又四分之一場戰爭居功。

He keeps talking about all nine wars that he's seeking to end, giving himself credit for eight and a quarter so far.

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西方軍隊進駐烏克蘭，會對莫斯科造成多大嚇阻？ | DW 新聞 (How much of a deterrent would Western troops on the ground in Ukraine be for Moscow? | DW News)

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