Name: 2026年股市致勝攻略！ (The stock market playbook for 2026)
Uploaded: 2026-01-04T07:30:39.000Z
Duration: 8 min 4 s

to 不定詞

And Jenny, it's a pleasure to be here with you today.

Jenny，今天很高興能跟你一起在這裡。

未來簡單式

So when we're starting off with 2026, do you think we're going to see the winners continue to win, the losers continue to lose?

那我們在 2026 年剛開始的時候，你覺得會是贏家繼續贏，輸家繼續輸嗎？

過去簡單式

You have the Nasdaq that gained 20% in 2025, but the Dow just up 13%.

Nasdaq 在 2025 年上漲了 20%，但 Dow 只有上漲 13%。

I think we're going to see some real shifts, some real broadening and some real changes in the new year.

我覺得新的一年我們會看到一些真正的轉變、真正的擴大和一些真正的改變。

One of the things that I'm worried about, I mean that not only at the stock level, Courtney, but

其中一件讓我擔心的事情，我的意思是，不只是在個股層面，Courtney，而是

我的意思是，在整個市場層面也是。

I'm spooked from a behavioral perspective.

There was an article in Bloomberg, I don't know if you saw it a day or two ago, and

Bloomberg 有一篇文章，我不知道你一兩天前有沒有看到，

Every Wall street analyst now predicts a stock rally in 2026.

現在所有 Wall street 的分析師都預測 2026 年股市會上漲。

Never in my 30 plus years in this business have I ever seen pure consensus play out as expected.

在我這 30 多年的職業生涯裡，從來沒有見過純粹的共識如預期般實現。

So that spooks me a lot that everybody's so on the same path, you know, and

所以這讓我非常擔心，大家都在同一條路上，你知道的，

you see, oh, what's my best idea for next year?

你看，喔，我明年最好的點子是什麼？

Everyone's best ideas are what Microsoft, Amazon, whatever worked.

大家最好的點子就是 Microsoft、Amazon，或是任何奏效的東西。

And I look at this and I keep hearing people say, well, the economic data is terrific, but

我看著這個，一直聽到有人說，嗯，經濟數據很棒，但是

the economic data we have is backward looking.

我們現在的經濟數據是落後的。

And I think people are failing to look forward strongly enough into this new year.

而且我覺得大家在新的一年裡，都沒有夠用力地往前看。

There was, there was a guy named Sal Khan on, on Wednesday morning.

喔，週三早上，有個叫 Sal Khan 的人。

And he was talking about this job apocalypse and he was talking about how there's like 5 to 6 million drivers in the US and we all know Waymo and driverless is coming.

他在講這個工作末日，然後說美國有大概五到六百萬的司機，而我們都知道 Waymo 和自駕車即將到來。

He was talking about like call centers in, where was it Indonesia or the Philippines where they're going to lay off 80% of the people.

他在講像是印尼或菲律賓的客服中心，他們要裁掉80%的人。

And then even this morning there was another person on who, I don't know who as I was driving, but

然後今天早上還有另一個人，我開車時沒聽清楚是誰，但是

they were saying that is going to enable companies with a thousand employees to take over things like Accenture, 100 employees to take over SAS.

他說這會讓擁有一千名員工的公司能夠取代 Accenture，一百名員工就能取代 SAS。

I'm really worried about what the labor market looks like going into this year.

我真的很擔心今年勞動市場會變成什麼樣子。

And you keep hearing people say, well, well, labor still strong, wage growth is still high, but, but

而且你一直聽到有人說，嗯，嗯，勞動市場還是很強勁，薪資成長還是很高，但是，但是

And so this super rosy outlook coupled with me seeing that the labor market could be tough and knowing that over 60% of GDP is driven by consumption.

所以這種超級樂觀的前景，加上我看到勞動市場可能會很艱難，而且知道 GDP 有超過 60% 是由消費帶動的。

如果他們無法繼續消費怎麼辦？

At this rate, I get a little bit sketched out.

So where I end up for this year is I think you should take risk off the table.

所以今年我的看法是，我認為你應該要降低風險。

我們已經過了三年很棒的時光。

It doesn't mean I think a major bear market's coming.

這也不代表我認為會有個大低迷的市場要來了。

But if you've had a great year, take some risk off the table, whatever form that's going to come to you.

但如果你今年表現很棒，就該稍微降低風險，不管用什麼方式。

And maybe you want to take a little bit out and switch strategies and go from super high growth and what's worked into something that's just a better valuation.

也許你想稍微抽離，轉換策略，從高成長、過去奏效的模式，轉向估值更好的標的。

Maybe you want to put more into international, maybe you do want to add to fixed income.

也許你想增加國際投資，也許你想加碼固定收益。

But I think that the playbook for this year is going to is going to be different than what it was for the year ahead.

但我認為今年的操作策略，會跟過去一年不太一樣。

And everyone seems to just be riding the same old train.

而且大家好像都還在搭同一班舊火車。

I mean, Kevin, as Jenny's talking about the job market can accord annuity is talking about the closing weeks of 2025 giving a gift to 2026, saying we have a solid economy with just enough labor market weakness to ensure ongoing rate cuts.

Kevin，就像 Jenny 談到的就業市場，以及 2025 年的尾聲給 2026 年的禮物，表示我們經濟穩健，就業市場有足夠的疲軟來確保持續的降息。

So they're sort of heartened by maybe some of the labor market weakness.

所以他們可能對就業市場的疲軟感到有些欣慰。

What do you make about the setup for 2026 when you're looking at the broader economy and maybe the picture for jobs that Jenny brought up, but

Kevin，當你看到更廣泛的經濟狀況，以及 Jenny 提到的就業市場前景時，你對 2026 年的佈局有什麼看法？

also what the world is going to look like as a technology continues to move forward?

而且科技持續進步的世界會是什麼樣子？

Yeah, I listen to Jenny's comments and I think they have a lot of value.

是的，我聽了 Jenny 的評論，我覺得很有價值。

我只是不確定我們是不是已經準備好了。

So when you look at consensus, that's the scary part because I kind of lean into that at the moment.

所以當你看共識時，那才是最讓人擔心的部分，因為我現在有點傾向於那樣想。

But I think the setup is still what we've seen for 2025, maybe just not with the same level of enthusiasm that we had.

但我認為 2025 年的佈局跟我們之前看到的差不多，只是熱情可能沒有那麼高了。

The trade is still real, it's still growing.

這個交易仍然是真實的，它還在成長。

We will probably see an interest rate cut in 2026, maybe two, but

我們可能會在 2026 年看到一次降息，也許兩次，但

And lastly, the economic growth, and I know it's backward looking, has been decent.

還有最後一點，經濟成長，我知道這是回顧過去，但表現還不錯。

So the setup for the first part of the year at least I think is a continuation of what we've seen in 2025.

所以至少我認為今年上半年的佈局會延續我們在 2025 年看到的狀況。

But what I do like about Jenny's comments and where we're on the same page is that things are not going to be Quite as easy.

但我喜歡 Jenny 的評論，以及我們意見一致的地方，那就是事情不會像以前那麼輕鬆了。

You can't just say AI and an earnings call and expect your stock to move marginally substantially, incredibly higher.

你不能只在財報電話會議上說 AI，就期望你的股票會大幅、顯著、驚人地上漲。

So I think stock selection will be super important selectivity and I think that really lends itself to professional and active management.

所以我認為選股會非常重要，精挑細選，我認為這非常適合專業和主動式管理。

所以我對 2026 年在這裡感到很興奮。

And I say that as someone who's anticipating volatility and maybe a slow grind higher.

我之所以這麼說，是因為我預期會有波動，而且可能會緩慢地上漲。

I think I've heard from a lot of the stock analysts, even if Jenny is saying maybe they're overly bullish for her liking, when everybody thinks we're going to move higher from here and we know we have these elevated valuations.

我想我聽了很多股票分析師的說法，即使 Jenny 說他們可能過於樂觀，超出了她的喜好，但當大家都認為我們會從這裡走高，而且我們知道估值已經很高了。

But I'm also hearing a lot of them to Kevin's say.

但我也聽到很多人對 Kevin 這麼說。

But stock picking is going to be important.

Where do you sit as you're opening up the playbook for your strategy for 2026?

當你為 2026 年的策略打開戰術手冊時，你現在的位置在哪裡？

Well, first of all, Courtney, I don't know if today's Jenny's birthday or what, but

嗯，首先，Courtney，我不知道今天是 Jenny 的生日還是怎樣，但是

I'm about to say something nice about her too, because one of the last times I was on with her, she said something that got my attention and I didn't really know.

我也要說些關於她的好話，因為上次我和她一起上節目時，她說了一句話引起了我的注意，而我當時並不知道。

I didn't really have any details on how true it was at the moment, but

當時我其實沒有任何細節知道這有多真實，但是

it's a thread I've been pulling ever since.

這是我從那時起一直在追蹤的一條線索。

Jenny was saying something about the fact that it seems as if the individual investor, the retail investor, is running out of capacity to spend and they're having to sell out of things like Palantir and Nvidia and anything else that's been going up really well up and to the right for retail investors for the year just to be able to raise cash to make ends meet.

Jenny 當時說，散戶投資人好像快沒錢花了，他們不得不賣掉像 Palantir 和 Nvidia 這種今年對散戶來說漲勢很好的股票，來籌集現金以維持生計。

And at the time I wasn't really too sure how true that was.

當時我其實不太確定這有多真實。

But what I've been paying attention to is bitcoin.

And because I think that bitcoin is the barometer on where the Retail Investors Fear and Greed Index really is.

因為我認為比特幣是衡量散戶投資人恐懼與貪婪指數的指標。

The VIX is for the institutional investor.

But I think bitcoin is a better read on where the individual investor falls and what we've been looking at since about October, around the time I think the data came through that Jenny was looking at and saying that there's a lot of bitcoin selling that's been done by long term holders.

但我認為比特幣更能反映散戶的狀況，我們從十月左右開始觀察，大約是 Jenny 看到數據並說長期持有者賣了很多比特幣的時候。

So Bloomberg had a piece out a couple of weeks ago That I thought was very interesting where something like $3 billion worth of Bitcoin holdings that are long term holdings, these are the individual tokens, not the ETFs have made their way into circulation for the first time and it was at the fastest pace this has happened in the last five years.

Bloomberg 幾週前有一篇報導，我覺得很有趣，內容提到大約有 30 億美元的比特幣長期持有部位，這些是實體代幣，不是 ETF，是首次進入流通，而且是過去五年來最快的速度。

And so I know from the crypto community your bitcoin holdings are usually the last thing that you want to have to sell, especially now in a year where the IRS is actually doing a better job of tracking the cap gains on those things.

我知道在加密貨幣社群裡，比特幣持倉通常是你最後才想賣的東西，尤其是在今年 IRS 其實做得更好地追蹤這些資本利得的時候。

So I think it's very telling that those types of securities are making their way into circulation.

所以我覺得這些證券開始流通，這點非常值得注意。

And maybe to the point that I think Jenny and Kevin have been making, 2026 probably is not going to be the party up into the right the way that it was the last three years.

而且可能就像 Jenny 和 Kevin 一直在說的，2026 年可能不會像過去三年那樣一路飆升。

Probably a good time to be looking at de Risking.

也許是個該考慮降低風險的好時機。

I was, when we were on together, I said it was MicroStrategy that I was looking at and I'd been watching MicroStrategy since July.

我當時，我們一起的時候，我說是我在看 MicroStrategy，而且我從七月就開始關注 MicroStrategy 了。

Because I'd seen all that money come out.

因為我看到那些錢都流出來了。

So it was exactly where you're at now, which is Bitcoin.

所以就跟你現在一樣，是 Bitcoin。

And to me, I was saying that day that was the canary in the coal mine that was catching my attention.

對我來說，我那天就說，那就是引起我注意的那個煤礦裡的金絲雀。

字幕列表影片播放

2026年股市致勝攻略！ (The stock market playbook for 2026)

individual

tough

term

consume